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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    Down today 10.66%
    You almost want to say that you felt it coming. If it seems to good to true...
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    This seems concerning for two reasons.
    First, as msf points out, we see three straight days of a decline. The 16th, 17th, and yesterday. I can't find another date that the Daily Market Value fell below $1. Is this a trend?
    Second, is it correct to say that if one sold yesterday you would get less than $1 per share (0.9992)?
    The ER is 15 basis points. Can Vanguard prop up the fund by reducing the expense ratio?
    Mona
  • Why are bonds failing to act like a safe-haven as stocks sell off
    Could be it be because, as we saw in 2008, in a severe crisis the correlation between all assets is essentially 1?
  • Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan
    nope after Boeing spent what 50 or 100 billion on buybacks in the last ten years. But the taxpayer will bail them out again
    Let us at least pray the US gets an equity stake or warrants like Warren could get
  • the single dumbest paragraph filed with the SEC this month
    I've been working on tracking down funds in the SEC pipeline (the Hypergrowth or Falling Knives ETFs, anybody?) and came across Terra Firma US Concentrated Realty Equity. Apparently it used to be some other fund, or funds, or portfolios. Despite naming the manager they won't name who he worked for when advising ... well, you'll see:
    Performance data for the classes varies based on differences in their fee and expense structures. The performance figures for Open Class shares reflect the historical performance of the then-existing shares of the [...] (the “Predecessor Portfolio”) (the predecessor to the Fund, for which [...] served as the investment adviser), a series of [...], from September 23, 2011 to […], 2020. The performance figures for Open Class shares also reflect the historical performance of the then-existing shares of the predecessor fund to the Predecessor Portfolio, the [...] (the “Predecessor Fund”) (for which [...] served as the investment adviser), for periods prior to September 23, 2011. Jay P. Leupp has served as a portfolio manager for the Fund, the Predecessor Portfolio and the Predecessor Fund since December 31, 2008. Christopher J. Hartung has served as a portfolio manager for the Fund and the Predecessor Portfolio since 2018.
    The aforementioned "Mr. Leupp was a Senior Portfolio Manager on [...]'s Global Real Estate Securities team from 2011 to 2019. Prior to joining [...] in 2011, Mr. Leupp was the President and Chief Executive Officer (“CEO”) of Grubb & Ellis Alesco Global Advisors."
    (deep cleansing breath, deep cleaning breath, beer)
    David
  • Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life
    If we have no social distancing or other preventative measures then at leaset 80% of everyone in the US will indeed contact the virus.
    The 5 million people will not all be grannies. Mortality rate in Kirkland nursing home is 30% 2.5 million folks times 80% times 30% mortality so 600,000 grannies gone
    over 65 there are 49 million Americans ( minus the 5 million in Nursing Homes)
    45 times 80% 3,600,000 infected 8% (mortality in China) so 300,000 baby boomers dead
    Today we heard that 20% of 20 to 44 yo with Corona have been been hospitalized and 5% in ICU
    so 88 million with 70 million infected 20% 14 million hospitalizations with 3.5 million ICU admissions
    ( US has 540,000 regular hospital beds and about 100,000 ICU beds)
    I doubt if these dead or hospitalized people will be available to support the economy
    Who knows what what the mortality rate will be in prisons??
    In china mortality was controlled because they controlled infections and spread of the virus. If we don't we are toast until a vaccine is available.
  • Federal Reserve Gives Emergency Aid to Mutual Funds
    That's a good question. These days I haven't been paying too much attention to muni MMFs because they're paying less than online bank accounts (after tax). So it doesn't make much sense to take on their additional risk. (Aside from considerations like Medicare IRMAA where gross income is what matters.)
    It's hard to read into the government announcement.
    It could be that the wording was sloppy and the intent was to cover prime and muni MMFs. (I checked the N-MFP filing for VMSXX to verify that it is not considered a prime fund.)
    It could be that the government doesn't consider muni MMFs to be at enough risk to offer this loan option.
    It could be that the government does consider muni MMFs to be at higher risk but doesn't want to handle non-federal securities as collateral for its loans.
    FWIW, the true NAV of VMSXX over the past six months has been consistently over $1, ranging between $1.0001 and $1.0004 until the past three days where it dropped to $0.9998, $0.9995, and $0.9992 as of yesterday. Fidelity's FMOXX has generally had a higher NAV ($1.0012 to $1.0017), but it too has fallen in the last week from $1.0014 to $1.0007, likewise below its normal range.
    Perhaps it is time to start watching these figures more closely.
  • Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life
    coronavirus deaths < 200. Flu deaths between 22K to 55 = about 35-40,000. Corona is 10 times more deadly but we still have fewer deaths. Sure, we need to do all we do and be informed.
    So far the SP500 fell about 30% from its top. When to buy your first bucket? You got to use charts because it’s mechanical and many algos use it. I looked for several indicators that work for me and I used several but it’s too complicated. For Stocks: based on 2008 (which resembles 2020) the easiest is 100 moving average (Again, R48). 50+200 MA are the most used but 50 is too fast but 200 is too slow. MACD and looking at trends may confuse some/many. For CEF: use weekly MACD. For bond OEFs: use a simple chart trend. See below
    Stocks: SP500 (chart) from 2008 to 2009. See the 3 moving averages below. 100 MA(red line) is the best, not too early and not too late. For the current chart, you this (link)
    CEFs: PCI(chart). Use weekly MACD and enter when it's positive
    Bond OEFs: PIMIX (chart). You want to see several weeks of uptrend
  • The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say
    Hi sir @old_joe
    It will pass/by imid June July folks will be buying again..prob forgot everything that happened now
    Not getting advise from market watch but just read it w grain of salt...also read many other resources
    I am not too worried...got 15 yrs left
    Prob buy very soon
    If you do have good articles resources pls do make contributions
    Thx for your concerns and commentaries my dear friend
  • The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say
    @_oldjoe hi sir..not really...probably will start buy once get my tax situated...bottom near 19k I hope. .
    Do you feel silly reading it
  • Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan
    https://www.foxbusiness.com/markets/coronavirus-gdp-impact-bigger-than-financial-crisis-j-p-morgan
    Coronavirus will hit US economy harder than 2008 financial crisis: J.P. Morgan
    J.P. Morgan is calling for a sharper U.S. economic contraction in the second quarter, due to the COVID-19 pandemic, than the country experienced during the worst of the 2008 financial crisis.
  • The stock market may bottom long before the coronavirus epidemic peaks, analysts say
    Just another chartist.
    As the chart below shows, investor sentiment, according to an Investors Intelligence survey, has fallen into the bottom 10th percentile of readings, which has been a good indicator of market rallies during the past decade.
    A whole decade of bull market. What a hoot.
  • MORNINGSTAR alternative
    I haven't read any negative comments on M* from the financial press. But I haven't been looking for them either. Neither do I spend a lot of time in the market blogosphere, like Seeking Alpha.
    My own observation is that their home page has lost its focus on mutual funds. The result is a discordant mischmasch of conflicting advice aimed at a variety of different audiences from IRA buyers to stock pickers to financial advisors.
    Consider the CEO's letter to readers posted recently.
    Many investors today have never experienced a bear market in their personal investing and many more hadn’t accumulated significant wealth of their own during the last downturn. The same is true for many professional investors who either have never experienced this type of market environment or did not have as much professional financial responsibility during it. This is a challenging environment for the experienced and even more unsettling for the inexperienced.
    Say what? A thirty year old with an interest in investing might have noticed a couple of major shocks growing up. I noticed the end of the silver standard as a mere lad of 8 tender years. Nor was it possible to avoid the impact of inflation.
    If young professional investors have not studied, and learned from, recent large shocks I would not trust my money to them. Such people will continue to be punished by market surprises until they learn to pay attention to valuations and leverage.
    Morningstar’s mission is to empower investor success, and we are committed to weathering this storm with all investors. We are confident that with a sustained focus on long-term investing principles, investors will manage through this crisis just fine.
    Does that mean we should be reading another iteration from Christine Benz, John Rekenthaler's dyspeptic musings, or the latest stock touts?
    The writing has never been very strong. Sam Lee was the only person I looked forward to. Russ Kinnel spends most of his time on their more expensive platforms. Jeff Ptak touts indexes. And there are only so many ways Benz can rewrite the same five or six topics.
  • Estimated Tax Computation
    In another thread, I wrote that according to IRS guidelines, taxpayers are allowed to defer their first quarter estimates until July 15th, though their second quarter estimates are still due a month earlier, on June 15th.
    As to what I will be doing - likely paying the same estimates as always, since I periodically do Roth conversions. Each year I select the amount to convert such that my total taxes remain fairly constant. Generally that means doing some conversions early in the year and leaving some until the end of the year when I have a good sense of expected dividends.
  • Investor Bill Miller Calls This One of the Best Buying Opportunities of His Life
    Approx US population, December 2019: 330,149,796 (Wickipedia)
    Projected infection rate, if let run without intervention: approx 80% = 264,000,000
    Fatality rate of 2% = approx 5,000,000

    Quite a writeoff that you're comfortable with.
  • Estimated Tax Computation
    With the market in the toilet, and much of my income from dividends and capital gains distributions, how are members computing their quarterly estimated tax for 2020? No one has mentioned extending the 4/15 deadline yet.