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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Seeking Yield With Safety

    A second topic that came up is yields. There is the SEC Yield and trailing twelve month yields. Some funds pay annual dividends and others pay one time dividends. Why should you care? Take GAVIX. The forward yield is 7.1%, the four year average yield is 6% ...
    The fund paid no income divs in 2018 or 2019. In 2016 it paid $0.07523/share with a reinvestment price of $14.73 (0.51%), and in 2015 it paid $0.06761/share with a reinvestment price of $13.54 (0.50%). That's an average dividend yield of 0.25% over the past four years.
    Even if one includes cap gains, distributions over the past four years were:
    2019: $0.90414 reinvested at $13.21 (6.84%)
    2018: $0.83899 reinvested at $12.71 (6.60%)
    2017: $0.49539 reinvested at $14.73 (3.36%)
    2016: $0.479321 reinvested at $13.54 (3.54%)
    The cap gains in 2018 and 2019 (there were no dividend distributions) did average 6%+, but over four years I can't see how, even after adding income divs and cap gains together, one could average 6%.
    My data source is Fidelity's distribution page for the fund. I've verified the total distribution figures at the source: https://knowledgeleadersfunds.com/
  • Seeking Yield With Safety
    Greetings @Sven, @Catch22, @sma3, @Old_Joe, Sorry for the delayed response. Maximum drawdown is based on the time period, and also month data. Yes, the maximum drawdown will tend to be less than daily periods. For most investors daily deviations are not as critical as drawdowns relative to other funds over the same time period.
    A second topic that came up is yields. There is the SEC Yield and trailing twelve month yields. Some funds pay annual dividends and others pay one time dividends. Why should you care? Take GAVIX. The forward yield is 7.1%, the four year average yield is 6%, the dividend is $1.1 per share. The yield in MFO and Morningstar is 0.0%. This one caught me by surprise.
    Best Wishes
    Charles (Lynn)
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    The nice thing about cash is that it's there to buy assets that have taken a beating.
    I never had cash long term and hope not to have in the future. I'm only in cash short term, usually days to 2-3 weeks when markets are risky which I determine according to several indicators (VIX and others). Since 2009, which is 11 years, I have been in 30-100% cash about 12 weeks which is about 2%. This means I was invested at 99+% at about 98%.
    Why I don't have cash?
    1) because I have made a lot more money in bond funds.
    2) If I want to trade risky stuff, I buy it and sell my bond funds on the same day. You can do it at Schwab but not Fidelity.
    3) At retirement and for decades I only have several thousands in my bank. There are no emergencies or other incidents where I needed the money within hours unless its illegal drugs or ransom. I can always use my credit cards and pay weeks later. For a larger amount I can sell my mutual funds and get the money within 1-2 days.
    At retirement: if you need cash for expenses and as part of asset allocation you can sell just some share only when you need more money. When stocks are up, sell from stocks, when stocks go down sell some bonds and you better have a portion in ballast bonds. Sure, having 2-3 months in cash isn't a big problem but not 1-2 years.
  • Maximal Drawdowns
    Great discussions and sorry that I am late responding, but I see Charles has responded with the correct answer - drawdowns are based on monthly data. I agree with the comments about performance being relative to other funds for the time period.
    I think we are headed into unchartered (In recent history) investment waters with high valuations and extremely low interest rates. For future articles, I am looking at fund performance during the 1960's and 70's when interest rates rose so much. Over longer time periods, bonds still offer downside protection and moderate returns even given rising rates. I have moved to shorter durations and am contemplating paying of my mortgage. I still own some intermediate bond funds.
    I prefer funds that actively manage risk and have the flexibility to shift investments instead of me changing funds.
    Best Regards,
  • Tontine
    Robert Louis Stevenson, along with Lloyd Osborne, wrote a black comedy titled The Wrong Box whose subject and plot is the tontine. Free online read on a number of sites.
    Here's one review from Faith Jones, 2018.
    https://medium.com/@havingfaith/book-review-the-wrong-box-by-robert-louis-stevenson-and-lloyd-osbourne-ee2bcc0b3322
    I taught this book to high school kids a number of times.
    Turned into a movie in the 60's. Good British cast. But I can't remember if it was any good. IIRC, it involved a lot of murder.
  • Dead Cat Bounce?
    No big move. Strange week with lots of drama. Think things will be more clear next week. I am concern that COVID cases are rising fast with 120,000 cases on a daily basis in US. When will lockdown will take place again? Certain learned something from past March.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    +1 @VintageFreak
    Whatever tightens your screw
    Whatever rings your bell
    Whatever floats your boat
    Whatever greases your pan
    And if solo guitar is what starts your car
    Here comes the guitar man.
    Whatever tightens your screw
    Whatever rings your bell
    Whatever lights your fire
    Whatever blows back your hair
    And if two guitars makes you see stars
    Then here’s a pair.
    Whatever thickens your bisque
    Whatever answers your prayer
    Whatever downloads your disc
    Whatever loads your software
    Whatever pulls your cork
    Whatever ripens your cheese
    And if solo piana is what peels your banana
    More piano please.
    Whatever fires your jets
    Whatever lifts your kilt
    Whatever grinds your beans
    Whatever milks your cow
    And if a little drum break can bake your cake
    Well, here’s one right now.
    Edited and condensed from “Whatever Floats Your Boat“ - by Garrison Keillor
  • What Blockbuster Automaker Profits Tell Us About The Pandemic Economy
    Following is the complete text from a current NPR financial article.
    The auto industry is roaring back far sooner than expected, in the latest sign of the economy's two-track recovery. Major auto manufacturers have been raking in money this past quarter, as consumers who can afford it show unexpectedly strong appetite for expensive new vehicles.
    Companies like Ford, General Motors, Fiat Chrysler, Daimler and BMW reported impressive earnings in the period between July to September, surpassing their pre-pandemic performance in many key metrics. Honda and Toyota raised their profit forecasts sharply. It's a remarkable turnaround for an industry that, just a few months ago, was facing a grim outlook. Plants around the world were shut down this spring to stop the spread of the coronavirus.
    Carmakers couldn't sell vehicles, because they weren't making any. They were bleeding billions of dollars, and bracing for a recession that would send demand for their products plummeting even after they restarted assembly lines. But then production resumed. And it turns out Americans — those who can still afford new cars, anyway — want new vehicles as badly as ever. Pent-up demand from people who put off purchases earlier in the pandemic was boosted even further by federal stimulus checks and low interest rates.
    "Consumers have proved resilient," says Stephanie Brinley, an analyst with IHS Markit. "They came back to the showrooms as soon as they could."
    It might seem counter-intuitive. Millions of Americans are struggling financially. The U.S. has recovered just over half of the 22 million jobs lost early in the pandemic. But those job losses disproportionately hit lower-income workers, particularly in service industries, and new cars are marketed to higher-earning buyers. The stock market has been soaring, and many well-compensated workers have been able to work from home.
    Instead of experiencing a financial crunch, they might even be saving money by reducing expenditures on things like travel and dining out.
    The spending power of the financially comfortable is powering sales trends in high-end homes as well as new cars.
    Indeed, those buyers showed a strong preference for pricey pick-up trucks and SUVs loaded with premium features, pushing new car transaction prices higher. That's a long-standing trend in American car buying, but it may have been intensified by the pandemic, as financially secure shoppers are less focused on commuter vehicles and thinking more about road trips or leisure.
    The preference for high-cost vehicles means automakers can turn tidy profits even on a smaller number of total sales. Meanwhile, some companies are also seeing a boost from rising used car prices, which provided a cash infusion to their financing arms. Demand in China has also rebounded significantly.
    The result? Ford paid back $15 billion it had borrowed to make it through the pandemic and still had $30 billion in cash left over. General Motors doubled analyst expectations for earnings-per-share in the third quarter. And Fiat Chrysler reported its highest ever quarterly earnings in North America.
    Brinley notes that sales will still be down for the year as a whole, and given the uncertainty about the ongoing pandemic, "there is still opportunity to have difficulty in the next year."
    But the unexpectedly strong performance from automakers in the third quarter helps make up for the losses they suffered earlier in the year. And it's a relief for automakers as they look toward the future, where they have committed to make hefty investments.
    Every major car company is banking on a future in battery-powered vehicles, which requires an expensive transformation in their industry. And that's before you tally up the costs of investing in autonomous vehicles.
    GM CEO Mary Barra emphasized this week that the tremendous amount of cash that GM was earning from full-size trucks and SUVs in North America will allow the company to self-fund its electric vehicle investments, rather than needing to borrow money or seek investors. "We're going to go hard at [electric vehicles]," she said. "The North America performance ... allows us to do that."
    Meanwhile, Tesla, which led the industry in electrification and is popular with luxury car customers, was profitable all year long.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    Hi guys. I should have said “I stand corrected.“ :)
    @FD1000 - You caught me off guard with the “peak-to-trough” lingo. Frankly, other than from John Hussman, I haven’t heard the term tossed around much. When Hussman uses it he’s usually also referencing a complete market cycle (measured in years). Yes - I suppose even 3 days could constitute “peak-to-trough”, as in the case of a money market fund breaking the buck.
    I took your response as a reference to @BenWP’s mention of using TMSRX to invest some cash. One thing I assiduously try to avoid is “second-guessing” or criticizing investment decisions reported by other members. That’s because I don’t know their full circumstances or what they intend to achieve. I know Ben to be a very experienced investor, so if he made a determination, after looking at the charts, that the fund satisfied his needs, I’ll let it be. It’s not for me to suggest an alternative fund - unless he so requests such assistance.
    Many of us have been “reaching for yield” in a very low interest rate environment. For portfolio positioning, some of us take (and have been taking) a “liberal” approach to cash - though technically it means “risk-free“ money. I just threw a bunch of idle cash into PRIHX, an intermediate-term junk bond fund. I’m fully aware I might lose a bit on the move - but I’m willing to take that risk.
    Have a nice day.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    @Catch22 - Thanks. The roof fell in on a lot of stuff in March. I was busy buying up stuff, so didn’t pay much attention to short term losses. TRBUX, the ultra-short, which I also have held from inception, dropped about a dime during that brief period (from its $5.00 peg). It had been very stable for years. Clearly, something was very amiss in the credit markets - which @msf alludes to above. Considering that some equity funds fell 25-35% during March / April, a 9% loss looks tolerable. As I noted earlier, I wouldn’t use this fund as a cash substitute.
    Since when do we consider 15-days to represent “peak to trough” when speaking of mutual funds? Anybody with a 15-30 day time horizon should rush on down to their local bank and deposit said funds in an insured passbook account.
    The magnitude of the short-lived market disruption is summarized well by Wikipedia:
    “The 2020 stock market crash, also referred to as the Coronavirus Crash, was a major and sudden global stock market crash that began on 20 February 2020 and ended on 7 April. The crash was the fastest fall in global stock markets in financial history and the most devastating crash since the Wall Street Crash of 1929.”
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    As FD1000 has written elsewhere and here, one shouldn't plan one's life around black swan events. Though as I've written before, what some call black swan events happen with almost predictable regularity.
    Because of Fed intervention (IMHO that was the true black swan), the loss for TMSRX was short lived. For an enhanced cash-ish holding, time to breakeven would seem to be a metric one might care more about. One might be willing to wait a few months in exchange for not losing any value.
    By that measure, the timeframe to look at for TMSRX is 4/4/18 (peak) to 12/27/18 (trough, down 4.99%) through 7/1/19 (full recovery). 15 months under water.
    In comparison, VBIRX dropped from 11/7/2001 to 12/17/2001 by 1.91%, taking until 5/22/2001 to fully recover, about half a year. Similar half year periods include:
    3/16/04 (peak) to 6/14/04 (down 2.7%) to 9/16/04 (full recovery);
    10/26/04 (peak) to 3/28/05 (down 1.4%) to 5/18/05;
    3/17/08 (peak) to 6/13/08 (down 2.3%) to 9/8/08;
    11/4/10 (peak) to 2/8/11 (down 1.8%) to 5/16/11;
    5/2/13 (peak) to 7/5/13 (down 1.4%) to 11/26/13.
    I consider these half year spans acceptable timeframes; the fund is not a checking account.
    FWIW, there were a couple of more extended periods under water (albeit shallow water):
    7/5/16 (peak) to 12/15/16 (down 1.8%) to 6/2/17 (11 months);
    9/8/17 (peak) to 5/16/18 (down 1.8%) to 12/18/18 (15 months).
    If sharp drops are what concern you, then look at Veteran's day, 2003. VBIRX spiked 4.1% from the day before, and dropped back down 3.8% the next day. While this might seem to violate the "definition" of black swan because it is not unexpected (bond market closed while stock market open invites bond fund weirdness), the spike wasn't predictable. It seems to have been the only such spike. Also, the fund took over 1.5 years to recover full value on 6/1/2005.
    At the end of the day I look at SEC yield. VBIRX's SEC yield is 0.34% (source: Vanguard). ICSH is 0.39%. JPST is 0.51%. (ETF source: Fidelity) Ally Bank will pay you 0.60%, FDIC insured, rate guaranteed for 11 months, and you can get your money out at any time. The only strings are: the withdrawal is all or nothing, and you can't withdraw in the first seven days.
    To do significantly better, one is going to have to move up the risk spectrum. Whether that is length of time to avoid loss, maximum potential loss, likelihood of being down at any given moment, or some other measure, something has to give.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    Hi @hank
    TMSRX NAV on March 3 = 9.87, NAV on March 19 = 9.00.
    This is a - 8.8146% change.
    NAV change
    Disclaimer: do not and will not have any money with this fund.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    TMSRX is another animal. There are many bond funds to select from. It lost over 9% in the last meltdown (peak to trough)
    Huh? TMSRX opened in February, 2018 - so is less than 3 years old. I checked at Yahoo and could find no record of a 9% drawdown.
    I’ve owned it since inception and recall that it stumbled out of the gate when the AUM was very low. So it likely ended 2018 in the red. Allowing for that, 9% drawdown sounds a lot higher than I recall in 2018. I really can’t imagine it falling that far over any given 12-month period. But, it is new and untested.
    I use it in my alternative investments sleeve. However, I’ve sometimes thought it might fit in as an income fund, with volatility similar to a short / medium duration bond fund, but much less susceptible to interest rate risk. I would not use it as a cash alternative - but have no serious argument with those who might do so.
    Chart for TMSRX from Lipper. Note the fund’s performance in dark colors (red/green) contrasted with similar funds shaded in lighter shades. Here’s the link..
    image
    -
  • Tontine
    Robert Louis Stevenson, along with Lloyd Osborne, wrote a black comedy titled The Wrong Box whose subject and plot is the tontine. Free online read on a number of sites.
    Here's one review from Faith Jones, 2018.
    https://medium.com/@havingfaith/book-review-the-wrong-box-by-robert-louis-stevenson-and-lloyd-osbourne-ee2bcc0b3322
    I taught this book to high school kids a number of times.
  • $2.50 a Year in Interest? That’s What $5,000 in Savings Gets
    Fewer years than one might expect.
    Just think, with the power of compounding, after just two years, one would have not 0.10% (2 x 0.05%) in total interest, but a whopping 0.100025%! And it only gets better after that.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Sold GDX Gold Miners ETF. >50% return in less than 6 months, pigs get slaughtered. I'm also unclear has to how much more upside might be pulled from this holding.
    @Mark - I hate to inform you the sky is the limit. A lot of the appeal is emotional - hence difficult to value. Miners up 6.85% today alone.
    I know it sounds crazy. I sold my miners a few months ago (for the same good reason you did) - but than “got religion” and bought back in - though only half as much as I sold. It’s now considered a “spec” position - the advantage being it isn’t subject to rebalancing. I don’t understand it. @rono’s the expert. But from reading Bill Fleckenstein pretty regularly I decipher this much:
    - Fed will loose control of the yield curve (whatever that means)
    - Dollar will weaken substantially.
    - Inflation will inflate (run a lot hotter).
    - Stocks will crash.
    - Eventually the Wall Street crowd (fund managers, etc.) will repent of their current skepticism and start buying up the gold miners for the accounts they manage.
    I think that last one is probably the strongest argument Fleck makes, since it suggests there’s still a lot of room to run. I’ll have to say there’s a crowd of die-hard gold bugs who participate in that forum (paid subscription) and it does seem to me to be sort of a religion with many. A 25% selloff in miners doesn’t seem to faze them - so focused are they on the longer term prospects.
    These aren’t necessarily my own views. I’m just sharing FWIW what I perceive as the arguments of the gold bulls. And, of course, nobody wants to be in the metals when the trend reverses. I’ve been on both sides of that coin - so to speak - in my 50 years of investing.
    Full Disclosure:
    OPGSX is considered a “spec“ position and represents only about 2.5% of portfolio.
    PRPFX has substantial exposure to precious metals / miners. About 11% of portfolio.
    PRAFX has limited / moderate exposure to precious metals / miners. About 3.5% of portfolio.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread

    Bought 10 22.5/30 JAN 23 combo spread on PING for a credit.
    Reason: Been stalking them for a long while, tanked 16% today on an acquisition, and I think the company itself is a possible takeout target at some point.
  • Gold, Miners on the Rise as Dollar Slumps
    “Gold jumps to a two-week high with the dollar falling as Joe Biden nearly wraps up the U.S. presidency, with gold futures +1.3% and cracking $1,921/oz. - a level that has provided both support and resistance after the metal set a new high of $2,075/oz. in August.”
    Seeking Alpha