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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Knowing what you now know, what would you do now?
    @rono has it correct, as usual.
    Here’s from one pundit I follow:
    “... other than to say there's going to be massive stimulus coming and we're going to have a lot of pain, it's very hard for me to come up with any kind of cogent plan for the near term that I would have any confidence in.”
    Bill Fleckenstein, March 17, 2020 https://www.fleckensteincapital.com/dailyrap.aspx?rapdate=03-17-2020 (subscription required)
  • Maybe Consumer Staples are the best market niche right now
    (As of Tuesday's close) VDC(Vanguard Consumer Staples) was only down 10% for the year and up 4% from where it was a year ago. That's pretty stellar, and the rather obvious back story of WHY gives a real foundation to the story.
    Minimum Volitility (USMV) hasn't held up nearly as well, down 17% this year and down 4.5% for the last 12 months.
    As for VDC, I truly do not like the tobacco part of it, but I have heard it said "There is always money for cigarettes". I think the same goes for most if not all of the consumer staples.
  • The market may have already priced in the coronavirus recession
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/market-may-have-priced-in-coronavirus-recession-morning-brief-101849179.html
    /The market may have already priced in the coronavirus recession
    And a potential reason for optimism in the second half of the year
    The stock market rallied on Tuesday, with the S&P 500 rising 6% to snap a three-day streak of 9% moves.
    However, the benchmark index is still down more than 25% from its record high./
    And down we go.... maybe more pains+volatility next few wks until lock down resolves and coronavirus numbers improve/stabilize
  • Knowing what you now know, what would you do now?
    Nothing different. I sold a few things in mid-Feb that had gone up to what i thought were nosebleed levels, and then was able to buy them back in recent days at prices lower than what I paid for them originally. At the risk of sounding like I'm gloating, looking @ their charts, I sold them literally the day before the markets began to roll ... so great timing, I guess.
    I've had a large cash pile for years sitting next to my equity-centric portfolios, so I'm VERY happy to be putting it all to work into equities now that they're coming down so sharply. Some of the stuff I just bought is down 10-15% already but I'm not worrying since they're solid (and mostly) 'value' companies.
  • 10 Year Treasury yield rises in after hours trading
    CNBC reports it jumped to 1.13 in after hours trading yesterday.
    The 10-year Treasury yield jumped to 1.13% Wednesday after trading around 0.77% midday Tuesday before details of the potential stimulus emerged. It began the week at around 0.65%. It wasn’t the outright rate level that caused uneasiness among traders, but the rapid nature of the move overnight.
    Gonna be rough out there today.
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    Hi @Crash, Thanks for making comment and for your question.
    A higher barometer reading indicates that there is more investment value in the Index over a lower reading. Thus, there is more investment value in the Index (by the barometer's metrics) with a reading of 180 vs a reading of 175 or less. I use the number 160 (or better) for me to consider any equity buying; but, only if I have an open to buy within my portfolio's asset allocation. Currently, I have an open to buy within my asset allocation and with this high barometer reading I have now started my buying process. I plan through select buying to raise my equity allocation from it's 40% current range to the new target range of 45%. I'll do this in steps, of course, as market conditions can change quickly.
    By the way, the futures are down this morning. However, I'm still with my thoughts that a floor is starting to form. However, currently the markets are very news driven so I am still looking for some good volatility to take place from time-to-time based upon daily news and related events.
    I'm not looking for new stock market highs to take place in the nearterm; however, I do expect to see some improvement in valuation. Remember, we are in the early to mid statge with the virus and the Presidential election is also approaching.
    Skeet
  • Which fund in your portfolio performed best on Tuesday ?
    Vanguard's utility index (VUIAX) jumped 13.17 in my taxable portfolio. My broker no longer makes it available for less than the minimum.
    USAA's precious metals fund (USAGX) led my IRA at 12.07. That's pretty much a break-the-glass fund. If I never make my money back on that sliver it will be just as well for the rest of the portfolio.
    Fidelity's telcom and utility fund (FIUIX) led my wife's IRA at 9.92.
    I had GASFX in my IRA. And I look forward to harvesting a loss in my taxable sometime soon. I think I got into that too late. The scarcity cat is out of the bag.
  • Which fund in your portfolio performed best on Tuesday ?
    Hard to believe but GASFX lead the way with over a 10 % jump! Maybe that was due to 33 % drop !!! Yikes .....
    Derf
  • You can lead a lender to 0% .....
    The Fed likes 0% - for obvious reasons. They just lowered their benchmark overnight lending rate to 0 last Sunday. And on Monday rates farther out on the curve dutifully followed suit and dipped precipitously. However, I just noticed that the 10-year Treasury has pushed above 1% in Tuesday’s overnight trading. So what the Fed wants and what lenders farther out on the interest rate curve are willing to lend money at may prove two different things. This situation is sometimes characterized by pundits as “the Fed losing control” of interest rates. Whatever you call it, it probably doesn’t bode well for the economy. Both of my multi-sector bond funds fell over 1% on Tuesday - a sign that global rates were already backing up some.
    For whatever reason, the real asset / resources camp seemed to awaken Tuesday following more than a week of severe bloodletting. One such fund I own, PRNEX, was already down about 45% YTD going into the day (I know - hard to believe). Even though oil slid further Tuesday, the fund jumped 5,5%. Why? A guess is that building materials, agriculture and other commodities rose enough to offset oil’s decline. Another already DOA holding, OPGSX (miners), experienced a near 10% jump Tuesday. Both funds perhaps demonstrate that it really is possible to “bring back” the dead. :)
  • Will stocks continue to fall because of coronavirus? Is now the time to buy? What about my 401(k)?
    Investing 101
    https://www.nj.com/coronavirus/2020/03/will-stocks-continue-to-fall-because-of-coronavirus-is-now-the-time-to-buy-what-about-my-401k.html
    Will stocks continue to fall because of coronavirus? Is now the time to buy? What about my 401(k)?
    The stock market tanked yesterday as investors reacted to the latest coronavirus news
  • Old_Skeet's Market Barometer ... Spring & Summer Reporting ... and, My Positioning
    In checking the feeds on the barometer this evening, from today's market activity, the barometer scores the Index with a reading of 175 indicating that the Index is extremely oversold. I did a little buying today and I spent a sum equal to 1% of my portfolio's value. With this, I reduced cash by 1% and raised my holdings in the growth & income area of my portfolio by a like amount. Currently, I favor equity income over fixed income.
    I am also going to temporarily raise my equity allocation by 5 percent and reduce my cash allocation by a like amount. When I complete my buying process this will put me somewhere around an asset allocation of 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity. In time, I will trim back to my 20/40/40 allocation.
  • Knowing what you now know, what would you do now?
    PRWCX PTIAX. Juicier monthlies, even in a falling market. I prefer monthly, rather than quarterly payments, anyhow. Retired, 65, more conservative, these days. But for overseas bonds, if someone should be interested: MAINX is doing RELATIVELY well, down -9.74 tonight. That compares with my RPSIX, which is a TRP fund of funds, and it owns a slice of equities, too: RPSIX is down YTD by -9.51%. PTIAX, still, is down YTD by only a FRACTION tonight.
  • nibbling away
    Old_Skeet continues to buy in the growth & income area of my portfolio. With this I reduced the cash area by about 1% and raised G&I by 1%. I've decided to temporairly move my asset allocation to 15% cash, 40% income and 45% equity in hopes of playing the rebound (in steps) as it comes. In following the money flow feed which is one of the barometer's data feeds it seems money is starting to retrun as the MFI went from 26 to 32 today.
  • Artisan International Value and Small Cap Funds reopen to new investors
    In the past, ARTKX is a fund I would have looked at. But given its declining relative performance over the years (going from 5* over the past 10 years to 4* over the past five, to 3* over the past three), I might have expected it to have reopened sooner.
    The M* analysis notes that "the fund has historically fared best during sell-offs." This time though, YTD, it's behind its category average, -32.82% vs -30.49%.
    The analysis also says that it blends quantitative and qualitative screens. If one wants a value-leaning international blend fund with a fair amount of EM (10% - 20%), that uses both quantitative and qualitative processes, BRXAX is an alternative to consider.
    It's also from a solid fund family (MFS), but it costs less and is much smaller in size ($250M vs. $14B). The funds have comparable std dev, same 3 year risk rating, similar market cap and style (on the border between value and blend), identical Sharpe ratios, nearly identical market capture ratios.
    It's done slightly worse, cumulatively over its nearly five year lifetime, -8.05% vs. -6.90%, though better over the past three years, -14.7% vs. -18.5%. YTD, BRXAX has slightly outperformed its category average at -29.51% (ARTKX has underperformed YTD). All figures are as of 3/16/2020, using this M* chart.
    Given the similarity between these funds, I'd take a closer look at both before deciding to invest in ARTKX. Though if one wants a compact portfolio, ARTKX's has just 39 equity holdings vs. 135 for BRXAX. Or if one doesn't insist on on a value-leaning fund, it's not hard to find better performing foreign large cap funds.
  • Artisan International Value and Small Cap Funds reopen to new investors
    @Mona Thanks. It was helpful to read that info. It looks like they had 10% cash as of 2/29. So, they have some room to take advantage of the downturn.
  • nibbling away
    Visited my 91 year old father-in-law who was moved to a hospice care facility today. That was difficult.
    Through the market volatility the past couple weeks we have been adding to our positions in PRWCX and AKREX.
  • Artisan International Value and Small Cap Funds reopen to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/935015/000119312520076139/d900439d497.htm
    497 1 d900439d497.htm ARTISAN PARTNERS FUNDS, INC.
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    File Nos. 033-88316 and 811-08932
    ARTISAN PARTNERS FUNDS, INC.
    ARTISAN INTERNATIONAL VALUE FUND
    SUPPLEMENT DATED 17 MARCH 2020 TO THE
    FUND’S PROSPECTUS CURRENT AS OF THE DATE HEREOF
    Effective 17 March 2020, Artisan International Value Fund will open to new investors. All references to the closure of Artisan International Value Fund in Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus are removed.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    File Nos. 033-88316 and 811-08932
    ARTISAN PARTNERS FUNDS, INC.
    ARTISAN SMALL CAP FUND
    SUPPLEMENT DATED 17 MARCH 2020 TO THE
    FUND’S PROSPECTUS CURRENT AS OF THE DATE HEREOF
    Effective 17 March 2020, Artisan Small Cap Fund will open to new investors. All references to the closure of Artisan Small Cap Fund in Artisan Partners Funds’ prospectus are removed.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
  • Fund Spy: These International Stalwarts Are Better Than They Look Right Now
    By William Samuel Rocco at M*
    "Stylistic headwinds as well as stock selection have hurt Harding Loevner International Equity and Oakmark International.
    The investment environment for international-stock funds has changed markedly for the worse in 2020, just as it has for domestic-equity offerings. Indeed, after posting solid gains over the final 9.5 months of 2019, most overseas stock markets gyrated down sharply during the first two and a half months of this year. Consequently, the average funds in all of the international-stock Morningstar Categories were in the red for the 12 months through March 13."
    Click for Article
  • Gov stimulus package info
    https://www.investopedia.com/government-stimulus-efforts-to-fight-the-covid-19-crisis-4799723?utm_source=personalized&utm_campaign=homepage&utm_term=19744559&utm_medium=email
    Gov stimulus package info
    United States
    The U.S. Federal Reserve has taken two significant measures to provide monetary stimulus:
    On March 3, 2020, it made an unscheduled cut to the fed funds rate. It slashed rates by 0.5%, double the amount of its recent moves, and the largest cut since the 2008 financial crisis.4
    On March 12, the Fed massively expanded reverse repo operations, adding $1.5 trillion of liquidity to the banking system5 . This means that the Fed extended the amount of short term loans to banks to keep money markets (markets for very short term loans) stable and allow banks to have more cash on hand.
    On March 15, the Federal Reserve cut interest rates by a full percentage point down to a range of 0.00% to 0.25%. This dropped the fed funds rate to the level it was before the rate increases starting in 2015. In addition, the Federal Reserve restarted quantitative easing with the purchase of $500 billion in treasurys and $200 billion in mortgage-backed securities.6
    On March 16, the Federal Reserve increased reverse repo operations by another $500 billion.