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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Stagflation
    “Fifty years ago, the U.S. economy was plagued with stagflation—a stubborn combination of low growth,
    high unemployment, and elevated inflation. It was a true shock driven by oil embargoes in the Middle East:
    Gas prices tripled, inflation hit 14%, and unemployment soared toward 9%.”

    “While the prospect of galloping, 1970s-style inflation remains low,
    today’s rising prices are troubling to the younger generations of Americans
    who were reared on the low inflation and interest rates of the ‘90s and 2000s.
    When combined with a predicted slowing of the economy and a softening labor market,
    today’s economy has the makings of what I call 'stagflation lite.'”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/this-new-stagflation-coming-won-t-feel-like-the-70s/ar-AA1HLBg5
  • Canada cancels DST after Trump stops trade talks.

    its unlike mark carney to waste other people's time with on\off\on.... tariff and trade nonsense.
    Canada does have a choice. If they want access to big markets, they will pay more.
    If you want to have an app on an iPhone platform, you have to get permission and pay Apple 15-30% of the revenue.
    The same if you want to be a merchant on Amazon. You pay Amazon too.
    Are the above bribes?
    The previous admin had tariffs: were they bribes too?
  • CORRECTION: Protecting Against Tariff Induced Inflation
    @lynnbolin2021, I am fine with informed decisions. Many bought TIPS funds without knowing the intricacies and then complained when they didn't perform as they expected during credit crunches.
    Morningstar recommends all funds all the time - that was its origin. But even M* relented recently that TIPS ladders may be better than TIPS funds,
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/ladder-up-investors-should-reconsider-how-they-use-tips-funds
    More https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2057/thread
  • CORRECTION: Protecting Against Tariff Induced Inflation
    @yogibearbull, thanks for your insights on inflation protected bonds. I have a couple questions or comments. My bond ladder currently consists of Treasuries, Agency, and investment grade bonds. My objective is to simplify and not buy any more individual securities.
    Vanguard short-term inflation protected bond fund (VTAPX) has 20% of its bonds with maturities of 0-1 year. It follows an indexing strategy of buying bonds each quarter so that some mature each quarter. While I did not find any mention in the literature of holding until maturity, I presume that a bond that matures this quarter is held until maturity.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investment-products/mutual-funds/profile/vtabx#portfolio-composition
    Regardless, short-term inflation protected bonds have performed much better than short-term Treasuries over the past five years.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2025/07/protecting-against-tariff-induced-inflation/
    The BlackRock iShares iBonds ETFs buy inflation protected bonds to replicate a rung on a bond ladder so individual inflation protected bonds mature at a specific date and the investment is returned at a specific date. For example, iShares iBonds Oct 2030 Term Tips ETF (IBIG) holds three inflation protected bonds with maturities between January and July 2030 and the fund is terminated in October 2030. For me, the simplicity outweighs disadvantages.
    https://www.ishares.com/us/products/333128/ishares-ibonds-oct-2030-term-tips-etf/
    Regards
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q2–July 7, 2025)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2025/Q2–July 7, 2025)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2025/Q2 and YTD to 6/30/25)
    COVER STORY, “ETFs Are Eating the World. The Right – and Wrong – Ways to Invest”. It’s hard to imagine an investment idea or theme without a related ETF. There are 4,000+ ETFs in the US, 700+ were added just in 2024, and several hundred are pending before the SEC. Note that there are only 2,400 listed stocks in the US (but there are many ETFs for single-stocks). Many mutual funds/OEFs are adding ETF classes after Vanguard’s patent expired in 2023. Almost 1,300+ active ETFs are competing with active OEFs. Many new ETFs won’t survive because viable ETFs need $100+ million AUM. There have been strong inflows, and the total ETF AUM is $11 trillion, and almost 33.3% of all listed funds (OEFs, ETFs) excluding the money-market funds (CEFs are too tiny to move the needle). Lot of money is just shifting from OEFs into ETFs.
    The ETFs has several advantages: (i) tax-efficiency (due to tax-free creation/redemption), (ii) accessibility, (iii) trading convenience, (iv) lower ERs; big ETFs are very liquid. Many financial advisors now prefer to use ETFs for asset allocation. On the other hand, there is more temptation to trade and reinvestments are inconvenient.
    Top 4 ETF sponsors/firms (Vanguard, BlackRock/BLK, Invesco/IVZ, State Street/STT) have 82% of the total ETF AUM, so there is lot of noise out there. Major stock ETFs are SPY, IVV, VOO (SP500); RSP (equal-weight SP500), IEFA (EAFE), VT (total world stock), NOBL (dividend Aristocrats), TCAF (capital appreciation), etc. Major bond ETFs are AGG, BND (US aggregate bond); BNDW (total world bond), MUNI (intermediate-term munis), JCPI (inflation-protected), ANGL (fallen-angle HY), etc. Major alternative ETFs are GLD, GLDM (gold bullion); IBIT, FBTC (spot Bitcoin), etc.
    There are flaws in some of these ETFs. Some bond, private-asset and commodity ETFs are in small, fragmented and illiquid markets that trade infrequently or not at all. The ETF pricing then is based on matrix-pricing or professional estimates/ guesses that may break down during market stresses. Most commodity ETFs hold futures because it isn’t practical to hold physical commodities except for some precious metals. This adds the complications of backwardation/ contango at future rolls. Also beware that ETFs can hold only up to 15% in private, illiquid assets, so pay attention to what the rest 85% is in. Then, there are leveraged ETFs, +/- 1x, +/- 2x, etc, often in pairs, so the firms make money whether investors have gains or losses.
    QUARTERLY REVIEW. It was a wild quarter for leveraged ETFs as winners and losers were magnified. Beware that their stated leverage applies on a daily basis, but it diverges long-term. The broad market had an early-April drawdown but rebounded strongly to new highs. A solid advice is to think long-term and ignore short-term noises (political, currency, etc), but the entire credit for crypto rally belongs to this Administration that is also a player. Ordinary folks can join the fund with small amounts in ETFs IBIT, FBTC, etc. Foreign stocks (especially small-caps), gold-miners (finally joining the gold rally), bonds and market-neutral funds did well in Q2. Outflows from mutual funds/OEFs continued and went into ETFs. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    More on FUNDS & RETIREMENT
    The new budget may trigger AMT for more people in higher income brackets. The AMT exemption amount is the same (as in TCJA, 2017) but the phaseout level has been reduced and the phaseout is at a faster pace. Higher SALT deductions and high state and property taxes may trigger AMT. Expectations are that most couples with income under $400K won’t be impacted.
    MFOP data for Q2 pending.
    Top 5 Categories, Q2 https://i.ibb.co/kgwb8rkv/MFOP-Quarterly-Top5-070625.png
    Bottom 5 Categories, Q2 https://i.ibb.co/FtLx8ZP/MFOP-Quarterly-Bottom5-070625.png
    LINK
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Quarterly stats (Averages) ending June 2025 don't load on Chrome or Edge. I assume that it may be because they aren't loaded yet. Please let me know if otherwise.
    Edit/Add. I will update this link ASAP https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/64240/barron-s-funds-quarterly-2025-q2-july-7-2025#latest
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (07/04/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:17 Topics
    01:06 Strength Begets Strength
    03:40 The Last 6 Months vs. The Last Decade
    05:59 A Rising Tide Lifts All Boats
    09:53 Jobs Market Slowdown
    13:36 Say Goodbye to the July Rate Cut
    16:20 Declining Dividend Yields
    18:08 More Affordable Rents
    Video
    Blog
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @AndyJ, sorry if I address your question appropriately. Having decent returns is only one metric that investors should considered. The expense ratio of Pimco’s institutional shares is over 2%.
    PAANX, YTD 7.1% with ER 2.92%
    PAUNX, TTD 7.9% with ER 5.0%
  • tariffs hit U.S. drilling plans per Dallas Fed survey
    Cap baby cap. https://finance.yahoo.com/news/us-shale-slow-drilling-trump-165615979.html
    The headline on the report from Bloomberg mentions shale, but the story seems to cover the entire domestic industry. So draw your own conclusions. It should also be noted that lower oil prices are playing their part.

    Almost half of oil executives said they expect to drill fewer wells in 2025 than planned at the start of the year, according to second-quarter survey results released Wednesday. For “large” exploration and production firms — producing 10,000 barrels per day or more — 42% said they expected a significant decrease in the number of wells drilled. Most firms said that tariffs have increased the cost of drilling and completing a new well by 4.01% to 6%.
  • Economic Effects of ICE and HR1
    The Cato institute ( with George Will's endorsement) is a very Conservative think tank focusing on individual liberty, free enterprise and economics.
    They have an analysis of the massive recessionary and stagflation impact of the ICE budget. ICE budget will be $170 Billion, and will probably all be spent immediately on prisons, extra agents ($200,000 a piece) and the wall.
    Cato thinks that the CBO projections of additional $3 Tr to debt are too conservative. they think there will be at least additional $4 Trillion to the debt.
    $1 Trillion is the negative effects on the economy of deportations.
    https://www.cato.org/blog/deportations-add-almost-1-trillion-costs-gops-big-beautiful-bill
    Add to this the 50% cuts in NIH and NSF budgets, where ever dollar spent produces $3 in return, and I think you can see why we are headed for stagflation and likely a recession and/or depression.
    We basically have every organization that does real number crunching saying that this budget is recessionary or inflationary, and adds significantly to the deficit/debt. Then, we have politicians and their loyal minions telling us to ignore the data and the facts.
    We should just accept that removing lower wage workers from agriculture, construction, hospitality, healthcare, etc will have no impact on productivity or labor costs! We should accept that cutting revenues and not cutting spending will work out, even though it never has done so before.
    If it had worked during the first Trump administration, the deficit/debt would be lower every year since. That has not happened.
    https://www.propublica.org/article/national-debt-trump
    "The national debt has risen by almost $7.8 trillion during Trump’s time in office. That’s nearly twice as much as what Americans owe on student loans, car loans, credit cards and every other type of debt other than mortgages, combined, according to data from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York. It amounts to about $23,500 in new federal debt for every person in the country.
    The growth in the annual deficit under Trump ranks as the third-biggest increase, relative to the size of the economy, of any U.S. presidential administration."
    "Federal finances under Trump had become dire even before the pandemic. That happened even though the economy was booming and unemployment was at historically low levels.”
    The combination of Trump’s 2017 tax cut and the lack of any serious spending restraint helped both the deficit and the debt soar. So when the once-in-a-lifetime viral disaster slammed our country and we threw more than $3 trillion into COVID-19-related stimulus, there was no longer any margin for error."
  • Vanguard High-Yield Active ETF in registration
    Will it outperform VWEAX?
    The funds have similar principal investment strategies.
    ETF:
    The Fund invests primarily in a diversified group of high-yielding, higher-risk corporate bonds—commonly known as “junk bonds”—with medium- and lower- range credit quality ratings. Under normal circumstances, the Fund invests at least 80% of its net assets plus the amount of any borrowings for investment purposes in corporate bonds that are rated below Baa by Moody’s Ratings; have an equivalent rating by any other independent bond rating agency; or, if unrated, are determined to be of comparable quality by the Fund’s advisor.
    OEF (prospectus):
    The Fund invests primarily in a diversified group of high-yielding, higher-risk corporate bonds—commonly known as “junk bonds”—with medium- and lower-range credit quality ratings. The Fund invests at least 80% of its assets in corporate bonds that are rated below Baa by Moody’s Ratings have an equivalent rating by any other independent bond rating agency; or, if unrated, are determined to be of comparable quality by the Fund’s advisors
    Main difference (aside from distribution channel) seems to be that Vanguard (Michael Chang) will be the sole manager of the ETF, while management of VWEAX is split with Vanguard (Chang) managing 1/3 and Wellington (Elizabeth Shortsleeve) managing 2/3 (per M*).
    Also, the ETF is projected to cost 10 basis points more than VWEAX, i.e. the same cost as VWEHX.
  • How the Largest Bond Funds Did in Q2 2025
    I am adding cautiously to INTL large caps. Starting in Jan 2025, I pulled back heavily on riskier assets, after riding the 2023/2024 equity wave. But, this rationale was twofold. I needed to pull back due to impending retirement (2026). And the tariff chaos was well-telegraphed. I added about 60%, of what I pulled out, back to equities on April 8, when the WH signaled they were backing down on harsh rhetoric and tariff rates. This got me to where I am now (58/15/27). I have added to PIMIX and PFN and PDO in the last month, as well, on hopes rates are really going to tick down by the 4th quarter.
    This is all in regards to the short and medium term.
    Obviously, the debt/deficit and inflation are on people's minds right now. The long term. And we KNOW that Trump will insert his agent into the FED in mid-2026 and try to push rates down significantly. I believe this has two implications, That inflation may gain a foothold and could become a problem. And that it will probably help existing bond fund prices.
    There are a lot of plates spinning. Caution and FOMO are battling it out. My totally unqualified view is that the second half of 2025 could be decent, IF jobs and inflation do not deteriorate too much. And if the FED cuts, the markets will be enthralled. Rate cuts should help tech, as they use debt heavily to finance growth. This, and the tight labor market might, offset any job losses. Inflation is the wild card, How does the FED deal with inflation, should it exceed 3%, and they have already cut rates? Do they let it run? Does a new Trump FED appointee appease, or do the right thing? From an investing standpoint, how do bonds and stocks react if the FED is forced to raise rates. Or fails to do so in the face of inflation?
    As always, I am open to respectful disagreement and alternative opinion. And healthy debate.
  • How the Largest Bond Funds Did in Q2 2025
    During the past 45 years, Congressional Republicans were fiscally conservative
    only when Democrats controlled the executive branch.
    Oh, how they wailed obsessingly about fiscal rectitude!
  • How the Largest Bond Funds Did in Q2 2025
    This article should be required reading. People should be compelled to discuss it and debate it or even try to refute it, in an honest fashion
    "The Republican Party controls both houses of Congress and the White House. Mr. Trump and his allies have the power to deliver a fiscally responsible plan. Instead, they are playing make-believe.
    A small number of Senate Republicans have expressed reservations about this situation. Senator Rick Scott of Florida has said the projected growth in the debt is “fiscal insanity,” and Senator Ron Johnson of Wisconsin has called it “unacceptable.” They’re right about that much. The refusal to confront America’s fiscal problems has a price, and it is rising rapidly."
  • Economic Effects of ICE and HR1
    I'm "impressed."
    Many said similar stuff about Trump first term and the economy was pretty good for years until covid.
    Who can forget Nobel Prize Krugman "great" forecast in 2016.
    https://www.politico.com/story/2016/11/krugman-trump-global-recession-2016-231055
  • HR-1 and the $1 Trillion Medicaid related cuts, 5 large companies affected today, JULY 2
    That Centene 40% loss yesterday hit AQR's QMNNX and QLENX (which I own and I think some others here do too). Acc'ding to Cramer on CNBC, Centene had to pull its 2025 guidance, as its 'managed care' business in the ACA marketplace is getting smacked by (apparently) healthier people pulling out, leaving sicker folks overrepresented versus its model for profit. Said Cramer, the Medicaid effect may have not been entirely felt just yet. (I have no idea how he knows what the relative impact on their ACA vs. Medicaid exposure really is.)
    Catch's catch is for sure a wakeup call for the broad impact of the lunatics' healthcare massacre. (As he wrote, it hits the ACA too.)
  • Budget Highlights for Taxes - CNBC
    940-page budget is hard to summarize in a short table, but CBNC tried that for its tax implications anyway.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/03/trump-big-beautiful-bill-tax-changes.html
    image