What Bear Market mutual fund or ETF has performed the best total return from 2/19/20 to present (or approximate)? This would be a fund designed to short the stock market or some equivalent. Please exclude leveraged vehicles or indexes like SH. Any ideas? Thanx.

Correct 100 shares Kellogg. I'll try and be more clear in the future.

@Derf I think he only bought 100 shares of K (Kellogg).

@DrVenture , 100,000 @ $63.60 = $6,360,00 ! I guess I'm not reading your post correctly ?
Derf

I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.

But you must still have taken the hit yesterday in the downdraft? How can you be sure you will buy back in at a better price than you sold? How long are you willing to be out of the market? To each his own, but given that you're almost all in bond funds (I think) how much can really be gained by market timing, even if you mostly guess right on your buys and sells? Just wondering, not criticizing,

My bond funds didn't take a hit. I had IOFIX,JASVX and HOBIX.
Below are my portfolio numbers as of yesterday from Schwab
YTD performance is 14.9%.
3 year average annually = 10.13%...SD(volatility)=2.16
In 2018 I lost less than 1% in Q4.
In 2020 I sold most of my funds in late Feb and all early in March (documented in this thread)
The key is good timing in/out + using momentum + not your usual funds + several times per year I trade riskier stuff (stocks, ETFs, CEFs, GLD, whatever) for hours-days based on technical analysis.

The zero interest rates problem is forcing investors to rethink the traditional 60-40 portfolio and evaluate just what is the role of the "40."
Alternatives are increasingly being used as 'bond surrogates' in the place of traditional fixed income allocations.
QAI, BTAL, HDG, MNA are popular. BIMBX and WNMIX are the best choices.

https://seekingalpha.com/article/4381438-hedge-fund-strategies-act-bond-surrogates

I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.

But you must still have taken the hit yesterday in the downdraft? How can you be sure you will buy back in at a better price than you sold? How long are you willing to be out of the market? To each his own, but given that you're almost all in bond funds (I think) how much can really be gained by market timing, even if you mostly guess right on your buys and sells? Just wondering, not criticizing,

Been a buyer since last week. More dry powder available, but wondering if the rout may be over. Planning my next purchases or ready to take profits, either way.
Last two purchases are 100 K @ $63.60 and 85 MMP @ $35.20, plus $20K of LCG OEF at COB.

I sold almost everything. My portfolio lost just -0.1% from its last top.

it's a miracle

Nothing new. The bull market started in 03/2009 months ahead before the recovery.
Stock short term performance doesn't have high correlation to unemployment, the economy, inverted yield, valuation, PE, PE10 and even earnings(SP500 earnings were down Q4/2012 + Q1/2013 and SPY was up 12+% in Q1/2013)

Found this filing concerning the change:
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/811030/000089418920008631/akrefocusfund102820204.htm

AllianzGI Funds:
https://us.allianzgi.com/documents/AllianzGI-Funds-2020-Capital-Gains-Distribution-Estimates-with-NAV
Liberty Street Funds: (NEW)
https://libertystreetfunds.com/wp-content/uploads/2020/11/Liberty-Street-2020-Year-End-Capital-Gains-Estimates.pdf
DWS Funds:
https://www.dws.com/globalassets/cio/dam-us/pdfs/resources/tax-center/forms/2020-capital-gains-distributions.pdf?v=-1258172827
Vanguard Funds:
https://advisors.vanguard.com/VGApp/iip/advisor/csa/investments/taxcenter/yearenddistributions

At a glance, this booklet appears to be a valuable resource for many retirement investors (in easy to read PDF format). Might be too elementary, however, for this sophisticated crowd. Possibly something one might pass on to a younger investor.
- Detracting from its value is the 2018 publication date. Dollar amounts and other regs relevant to IRAs and other plans can vary from year to year.
- There’s a section on 100 best mutual funds that looks very subjective. Many would disagree with the picks.
- There’s a comprehensive list of best target date funds by year. Again, that’s probably somewhat contentious. But, if it focuses on the lower cost funds, may be of value.
Critiques welcome.
Here

Morningstar shows tax cost ratio for funds on their "Price" tab (pun not intended). It's on the right hand side in the lower block of data.
See here.
The tax cost ratio is 0.03%, meaning that on average, over the past three years, you lost 0.03% of your assets to taxes each year. The category average is 0.02%. So I suppose that means the fund is "horrid", giving up an extra 1 basis point on average each year. Especially with so many HY muni funds giving up nothing to taxes.
FWIW, over five years, the average tax cost ratio is 0.03%, and PRIHX's 5 year tax cost ratio is also 0.03%.
If you have access to the M* premium screener, you can screen on HY muni funds. On the "Risk and Tax Cost" data display, you can see all the peers' 3-, 5-, and 10-year tax cost ratios.
0.03% is nothing. If you really insist on a TRP HY muni fund with a lower tax cost ratio, the screener shows that PRFHX's tax cost ratio is just 1/3 as much: 0.01% across all timeframes.
FWIW, PRTAX gives up nothing to taxes (tax cost ratio of 0.00%) vs. a category average of 0.04% over three years.

I’m using Lipper. For some strange reason, PRIHX, which Price calls “Tax Free”, receives the lowest possible score for “tax efficiency.” (1/5).
Might be that within its (tax-free) category, that’s true. So, what I’d like to do is compare it to similar funds that don’t limit their investments to just tax-free bonds.
Inputting various TRP “tax free” funds generates a wide variety of results. Their longer term (more generic) fund, PRTAX, scores highest (5/5) for tax efficiency at Lipper.

Volatility has been a big part of my style since 2000. Since retirement in 2018 it's a huge part of style.
Volatility/Risk isn't that important for young accumulators but retirees who have enough money to sustain their lifestyle to death have the ability to select lower volatility portfolio to suite their sleep well at night goal.
I can't find a combo of funds that meet my goals of making 6+% average annually, SD < 3, be positive every year, never lose 3% from any last top and why I will continue to use my style.

Some slightly contrarian contextual takes here, of high-level interest perhaps:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/follow-the-fed/

Interesting article
1)Employment: has nothing to do with stocks. Disregard.
2+5)Inflation + Plan for higher inflation.: I don't see any inflation coming soon. Still high unemployment, Covid, big tech improve processes, globalization. Disregard
3)Expect low yields. Of course, the Fed told us that
4)Favor the middle. intermediate term bonds are where you should be long term. Disregard
6)Rethink asset location: Same old narrative. Not all bonds are treasuries. Example: PTIAX,PIMIX pay about 4% annually.
6)Stay flexible. Keep your style and why disregard. If you are buy and hold investor and it worked for you changing isn't your strength. I'm a trader for about 20 years and why flexibility works for me.
7)Avoid gold. Sure. Most should avoid other stuff such as CEFs, risk parity and other exotic funds. KISS. Use only several funds, Core funds: wide indexes, explore funds: a few managed.

Some slightly contrarian contextual takes here, of high-level interest perhaps:
https://humbledollar.com/2020/10/follow-the-fed/

VIX is one of my main criteria based on daily movements.
VIX has been elevated since early September, it finally broke above 30 and that's not a good sign.
I use other criteria relate only to my goals (low volatility and never lose more than 3% from any last top). Making 2.5 times more in 2020 than my goals and I'm fine sitting out for days.
Interest rates are inching higher since early August, they are lower for several days but I think the 10 year treasury may go higher, maybe 0.9-1%

Out of tax considerations I also decided to take a modest 2020 distribution from the Traditional side, even though that was not required in 2020. Didn’t need the money. So it went into Price’s PRIHX - a “limited term“ HY muni fund that I think is probably a better fund than M* and the others currently rate it. ... As to the tax considerations, I’d rather write the IRS a check next April 15 than have to wait in line for a tax refund. Building up the non-IRA assets may prevent having to take an unwanted withdrawal from the Roth someday

I have an inherited Roth that requires me to take unwanted distributions. The only reason why I don't want those distributions is that after sticking the money into a taxable account all the future earnings are taxable. Aside from moving money out of a tax-sheltered account, I don't see anything unwanted about Roth distributions.
It's a different question when comparing T-IRAs and Roths. There are several reasons for keeping at least some money in a T-IRA (QCDs, lower tax bracket for heirs, leave to charity, etc.) But given a choice between adding eligible money to a Roth or leaving it in a taxable account, I'm not aware of a reason to keep it in a taxable account. So I'm not clear on your thinking here.
The muni bond fund does let you escape federal taxes (it's still substantially subject to state taxes). However that comes at a cost - muni bond yields are less than taxable bond yields (which would be tax free in a Roth).
For example (this is just the first one I picked, not necessarily the best comp), RPIHX is a taxable junk bond fund with a duration of 3.58 years and an unsubsidized SEC yield of 4.94% (subsidized is 5.08%). PRIHX is a muni junk bond fund with a duration of 4.44 years and an unsubsidized SEC yield of 1.40% (subsidized is 1.84%)
Though most multi-sector funds don't hold equity worth mentioning (5%+), about 1/8 of the nearly 100 funds do. They can get a fair amount in dividends plus a small growth kicker, but at the expense of higher volatility.
When Kathleen Gaffney left Loomis Sayles, it seemed she tried to outdo her mentor Dan Fuss at LSBDX by upping the equity to 20% in Eaton Vance Bond (EVBAX). That resulted in a fund even more volatile than LSBDX.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/23855/wealthtrack-preview-guest-kathleen-gaffney-manager-eaton-vance-bond-fund
PRIHX appears to merit a 2* rating because of its below average returns. This in turn is likely because it has one of the shortest durations of any high yield muni fund. A problem with M*'s ranking of junk bond funds is that it groups funds together regardless of duration - no short term, intermediate term, long term breakdown. There are only five muni high junk bond funds with durations under five years. Four have 2 stars; only ISHYX which has done slightly better, has a 3* rating.