I am selling TBGVX in a Taxable account to harvest the losses for year end - Looking for strategy advice to re-deploy the cash. TBGVX hedged, and recent articles suggest I might do better hedged- or perhaps both Some hedged/some not ?
Also interested in utilities for a 401k account - willing to limit the upside for a safer downside .
Many thanks !

Hmmmm.... ARTYX = no annual pay-out in 2019 after a great year.WTF? What gives?

Let's say we're having this discussion in 2000. You'd be staring ahead at a lot of pain for 10 years, while your home and those interest payments are secure. Just sayin'.

@Crash: I use M* to determine fund flows. Not sure if you have to be a subscriber, but the “Parent” tab for the fund provides the data. For Seven Canyons, which has only two funds, it’s a simple matter to see that up until the most recent quarter, the funds had been losing a lot of assets for several years. 2019 was a really cruel year for them.

@BenWP,
I myself (if it were I) would leave everything alone, unless peace of mind does not permit that. 10y / 3%, wow.

Yeah, great thread. Very informative. And in addition to "green hydrogen", battery storage solutions have been improving at a breakneck pace, mostly due to research and engineering into EVs. Merely 10 years ago a tiny subcompact like the Nissan Leaf had only a 72 mile range. Today 250 to over 300 miles of range is becoming the norm. The 2020 Tesla Model S is rated at over 400 miles. Illustrating how far battery tech has evolved in only a decade.
I must admit, I always thought of solar as a "local" power solution. If this is a feasible option, it seems like a real game changer. Imagine a continent like Africa, with all it's economic hurdles, becoming a vast exporter of energy to far-flung locations.

Thanks for the heads up on this one. I missed it in the Commentary. They focus on high growth small cap innovators and have a high portfolio turnover rate.
9/30 Quarterly Commentary:
https://sevencanyonsadvisors.com/newsandinsights/wagtx-commentary-q3-2020
9/30 Fact Sheet:
https://static1.squarespace.com/static/5e31f61806a57f2c2ea37a4a/t/5f91dfc8c3521479efade89d/1603395530032/seven_canyons_world_innovators_fund_fs_3q20_final+%281%29.pdf

Thanks to all for your valuable comments. I didn’t know if the subject held interest for the group so I did not provide personal info that could have informed the advice offered.
We are in our late 70’s and have 10 years to go on a 15-year mortgage at 3%. Our situation is hardly typical in that we up-sized to our current home in 2007-8 because our fortunes improved considerably. We were able to get a very desirable property that has increased a lot in value since then. Our large family of 5 daughters, ages 49 to 22, and 3 grandchildren, has required us to have a large place. So far our health is good and we do all our own housework, yard work, and routine maintenance. Many of our friends have moved to condos, but we’re not ready for that yet (knock on wood...).
One development of importance is that when the COVID crisis hit this spring, I purposely raised quite a lot of cash in our taxable account, partly out of a fear that our two youngest daughters (single) might have lost their employment and would have had to be supported. That fear appears to be unfounded now. Even though I stopped my TIAA RMDs, we do not have a cash flow problem because we haven’t traveled since January, nor have we needed a new vehicle or a major home project done. In short, there’s ample cash to pay off the mortgage without altering our current lifestyle. My thinking is to retire the debt because it seems a good way to use the cash that’s sitting idle now. Please comment. Thanks in advance.

WAGTX Featured by David in the Commentary section in October. Looking to start a high-growth fund after the new year, 2021. Re-investing a withdrawal from T-IRA. I don't wanna jump in right now, but wait until after year-end pay-out. Has this fund been losing AUM? Approx. 200K AUM, as I recall.

My results, which are not accurate as yours came up pretty close after 22 years.
The ending size of your portfolio is $876K nominal, $543K real. The size of the portfolio resulting from Bengen's scheme is $1.366M nominal, $847K real. These two portfolios are not close in value.
You designed a scheme radically different from Bengen's. Bengen assumed that one would withdraw a constant amount of money each year, in real dollars. Your scheme withdraws an amount each year that fluctuates based on the value of the portfolio.
From the way you describe your design, 4.5% + 2% for inflation, it seems that you still think that Bengen's scheme is to withdraw 4.5% of the value at the end of each year after adjusting for inflation. This is the miscommunication.
Bengen wrote (same quote as before): "After the first year, the withdrawal rate is no longer used for computing the amount withdrawn; that will be computed instead from last year's withdrawal, plus an inflation factor." In contrast, each year you use a withdrawal rate (7%) to compute the amount withdrawn.
You direct PV to withdraw 7% of the portfolio each year, leaving 93% to grow (or shrink) over the following year. So the withdrawals can never exhaust the portfolio. However, as the portfolio shrinks in size, so will the size of the withdrawal.
----------
For example, suppose that the portfolio is invested in something that loses 10% of its value, no more, no less, each year. Then under your scheme, a portfolio that started with $1M would progress as follows:
Start: $1,000,000.
Year 1 end: $900,000.
Withdraw $63,000 (7%).
Year 1 after withdrawal: $837,000.
Year 2 end: $753,300.
WIthdraw $52,731 (7%) - notice that the size of the withdrawal is shrinking.
Year 2 after withdrawal: $700,569.
...
Year 22 end: $21,452.46
Year 22 withdrawal $1,501.67
Year22 after withdrawal: $19,950.79
I find it instructive to do calculations by hand, but in case you don't believe me, here's PV's calculation. If you mouse over the graph to year 22, you'll see that the value is $19,951 (before adjusting for inflation).
----------------------
Bengen's scheme (assume 0 inflation for simplicity, higher inflation would merely make the results worse):
Start: $1,000,000
Year 1 end: $900,000
Withdraw: $45,000
Year 1 after withdrawal: $855,000
Year 2 end: $759,500.
Withdraw $45,000 - or more if there is inflation
Year 2 after withdrawal: $724,500.
...
Year 11 end: $50,025.36
Withdraw $45,000
Year 11 after withdrawal: $5,025.36
Year 12 end: $4,522.83
Not enough to withdraw $45,000. Portfolio is exhausted.
Again, I think that the figures above are more instructive than blindly using a calculator. But here's PV's calculation. Mouse over year 11, and you'll find the value $5,025 (before adjusting for inflation). Obviously PV reports that the portfolio is exhausted in year 12.

Discussing same option with my wife. Our mortgage is at 2.625%. I still think there are opportunities to beat that rate through equity returns on longterm basis....

What he said. I cannot imagine, even today, paying off any mortgage under <4%, which you should be able to outdo over time.
It really all has to do with the hard but slightly flexible reality of monthly cashflow and the softer but serious variable of sleep-at-night, does it not? Unless you watch Orman all day. Plus time, as LB notes, and by implication debt as a percentage of total.
I have two mortgages, one a heloc actually, both under $100k, both cheap, and am tempted every so often to reduce further, till I ask myself why? The conventional mortgage is so small no one is willing to redo it cheaper, so far as I can determine.

@FD1000, your article's chart sure looks a lot like cart linked below.
FSRPX vs VFINX shown here since 1999:
Consumer Discretionary Sector has significantly outperformed the S&P 500

>> You're writing about, to use @davidrmoran's term, what you "feel". I'm writing about numbers.
That is Bengen's word, only about inflation. (From your above quote from his nice article [p3], entire thing starting here:
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/choosing-the-highest--safe--withdrawal-rate-at-retirement-57731.html?section=308&page=1)
I was wondering only whether his conclusion from the 2008 article might be different in such a high-CAPE era, whether he would so conjecture even though as you note he does not do conjecture.

I think there is a breakdown in communication.
I didn't know 2 things:
1) that PV has Inflation adjusted box under the chart.
2) When you select Withdrawal fix Amount then another window open and you can select Inflation adjusted
So instead, I selected a fix Withdrawal Percentage of 4.5% + added an estimate 2.5% for inflation. There is no need to adjust again for inflation.
My results, which are not accurate as yours came up pretty close after 22 years.

There is no “right” answer on that one - unless you’re confident you can predict the future.
It’s true some parts of your (or my) diversified portfolio aren’t earning anywhere near 3% today, I choose to look only at the portfolio as a whole. That includes everything: the good, the bad and the ugly portions. That portfolio (100% either tax deferred or exempt) is viewed in my eyes as one singular entity with individual parts working together. Based on the past 25 years in which I’ve kept reliable records it has produced more than 3% annually (averaged out) by a good margin. (Keep in mind that the overall return includes the cash and bond positions.) That’s not braggadocio. Hell, most of the people who visit this board could lay claim to an average return greater than 3% over recent decades.
Now - if one has both the discipline and the psychological make-up to run a portfolio in which his paid off mortgage is included as a “cash” holding (which you’ve converted it to by paying it off), than it’s probably a good decision. The difficulty is one’s more visible “paper” assets (funds, stocks, etc.) will have to be more aggressively invested than that individual may be accustomed to since the portion of the portfolio formerly invested in cash or lower risk bonds is now being occupied by that paid-off mortgage. I’d have a hard time adjusting to that. In addition, I feel I can do a better job of diversifying investments across the asset spectrum with a somewhat larger investable sum. So, while my mortgage (a refi used for adding living space) could easily be paid off with invested money, I’ve chosen to let it run for the time being.
Some other considerations - Currently you control that sum of money that’s owing on the mortgage and invested elsewhere. Once you tender that sum to the mortgage lender they take control of that money. You’ve surrendered control. You’ve also surrendered liquidity. Some of this question relates to how actively and enthusiastically you invest. If you enjoy the game and are very actively engaged, you might like having some “opportunity money” on hand to grab up bargains when they arise - even if carrying that low yielding cash is costing you a couple extra percent a year.
Here’s two respectable truisms that are diametrically opposed, yet both are IMHO accurate and fit your situation.
1) You can’t go wrong by paying off debt. (true)
2) It’s always better to keep your options open. (true)
Mind you, both of the above are true. Yet, the first statement would favor paying off the mortgage while the second would support hanging on to that cash. :)

Back in 2010 when faced with a similar dilemma, CDs coming due and a dearth of good fixed income options I decided to pay off my mortgage. At that time my fixed rate mortgage was 5 3/8%. Refinancing might've gotten me to around 4 1/4% with around $2000 in costs at that time. Instead I used the CD proceeds, my MMF balance and some misc other investments to pay off the mortgage. Saving 5 3/8% with zero additional cost was a good deal I figure.
Now the other side of the coin. Had I taken all that money and invested it in the stock market in 2010, I would be way ahead by comparison. But I was wary of taking too much risk at that time and was already heavily invested in equities. So, peace of mind was my goal and I simply look at that move as a portion of my FI portfolio. Plus, no one can forecast the future. And I suspect that the stock market will not do as well in the next 10 years as it did in the last 10 years. But, that is pure speculation. I think trading a guaranteed 3% savings for money that is earning almost nothing is not a bad idea. Provided you are unwilling to take risk with those funds.
Good luck with your decision.

Both are close...Mine=$876K...yours=$847K.
I ONLY CARE about numbers adjusted for inflation.

If you ONLY CARE about numbers for inflation, you might stop saying that your number is $876K. Adjusted for inflation, it is $543K, which amounts to a 2.64%/year loss in real value over 22.81 years.
Try this: Run a portfolio of pure cash (CASHX), no withdrawals. I've even set it up for you. I hope you'll agree that cash lost value to inflation over the past 22 years. Prove it. What's the inflation adjusted ending value of a $1M starting portfolio? How did you adjust for inflation, and did you do the same thing with your $876K amount?
Alternatively, you could just take your $876K and divide by 1.60, which is roughly the cumulative inflation between 1998 and now. That comes out to $548K. (The difference between this and $543K is likely due to the fact that 1.6 represents inflation until 2020. Add another 1% inflation for the first three quarters of the year and you're down to around $543K. Though the figures are close enough I really don't care about the cause of the 1% discrepancy.)

We don't know what will be in the next 30 years but I like to make predictions NOW since we are talking about retirement now.
My assumptions of 2.5% and why I used 7% are close to yours of 4.5% withdrawal and then using adjusted for inflation. Both are close...Mine=$876K...yours=$847K.
I ONLY CARE about numbers adjusted for inflation.
Basically in the last 22 years this portfolio lost a purchasing power at about 0.5% annually.
In the next 30 years, I think it will get even worse. There is a good chance to lose at least 1.5-2% annually after inflation. I used Savings Withdrawal Calculator, starting with 1million, taking out $15K annually for 30 years left me with $550K.
Still OK according to Bengen.

@msf, I added VWINX to your link...interesting performance:
Inflation Adjusted (Final Balance) VFINX / FBNDX is $846,764 and VWINX is $1,098,373.
Comparing Withdrawals & Performance - VWINX to a 50/50 allocation

You can see that my assumptions end results are pretty close to yours.
Remaining portfolio:...Mine=$876K...yours=$847K.
I wrote: "At the end of the 22+ years, it [Bengen's model, not mine] shows a remaining portfolio value of $1.366M, or $847K in inflation adjusted dollars (check the inflation-adjusted box at the bottom of the graph).
Your scheme: $543K in inflation adjusted dollars (check the inflation adjusted box at the bottom of the graph).
From this point it may get much harder not easier. FBNDX(bonds) past performance since 1998 was 5% annually, it's going to be about 2% lower. This means that the same portfolio could make about 2% lower than the above and further erosion
All talk, no numbers. Here's a start.
Take 50% US Stocks, 50% US Bonds. Start with a nominal value of $1.366M, i.e. Bengen's value as of now. Use your 3% nominal return figure for bonds. Use your 7% nominal return figure ("now it's lower 7 - 2 = only 5%") for stocks.
As a starting withdrawal, take Bengen's 4.5% figure ($45K on $1M), adjusted upward for inflation over the past 22 years (about 60%, as I've already shown), i.e. start with a withdrawal amount of $7200. Follow Bengen's scheme, not yours - adjust that withdrawal amount for inflation annually (based on historical inflation, which is likely too high, but that just makes this model more conservative).
Run a simulation based on these parameters for 10 years - a higher bar than the 8+years needed to complete the 30 year span. The survival rate is 1000/1000.
I'm done. You're writing about, to use @davidrmoran's term, what you "feel". I'm writing about numbers.