Hi @bee The below are results for an ACA impact search relative to HR-1. I will presume that the information is accurate. Hopefully, there is some information of value for you.
NOTE: implementation dates are not part of this information.
Regards,
Catch
Key Impacts on the ACA and its Marketplaces:
Millions losing coverage: Changes to the ACA marketplaces within H.R. 1 are estimated by the Congressional Budget Office (CBO) to lead to at least 3 million people losing their marketplace coverage.
Challenges to enrollment and potential premium increases: The bill makes it harder for individuals to enroll in and keep their ACA marketplace plans, potentially resulting in higher premiums by reducing available tax credits.
Expiration of enhanced premium tax credits: H.R. 1 does not extend the enhanced premium tax credits, which were established in 2021 and have helped millions afford marketplace coverage. Their expiration is projected to lead to an additional 4.2 million people becoming uninsured and would be equivalent to a tax increase averaging $700 for millions.
Destabilization of the marketplaces: The combination of these policies is expected to destabilize the marketplaces, reducing access to coverage and increasing the number of uninsured individuals and the amount of uncompensated care provided by hospitals.
Elimination of automatic reenrollment: The bill requires annual re-verification of eligibility for individuals receiving premium tax credits, eliminating the automatic reenrollment that nearly 11 million people used in 2025. This adds an administrative burden and could lead to higher premiums for those who don't reenroll promptly.
No provisional eligibility: Applicants will have to pay full, unsubsidized premiums while awaiting eligibility determinations, which can take weeks or months.
Removal of repayment cap: The bill removes the cap on how much individuals must repay if they receive excess premium tax credits due to income changes, potentially adding financial risk to those with unpredictable incomes.
Shortened open enrollment period: The annual open enrollment period would be shortened to November 1st - December 15th, while in 2025, roughly 40% of enrollees signed up after December 15th.
End to special enrollment periods: The monthly low-income special enrollment period and state-based marketplace special enrollment periods based on income would be eliminated.
Increased administrative burden for income verification: Individuals with incomes between 100-400% of the Federal Poverty Level would face new income verification processes when applying for premium tax credits.
Potential Impact on Medicaid:
Increase in uninsured population: Changes to Medicaid proposed in the bill are estimated to cause 7.8 million individuals to become uninsured by 2034.
Community engagement requirements: The bill would impose community engagement requirements for certain Medicaid recipients, which could lead to coverage losses.
More frequent redeterminations: States would be required to redetermine eligibility for the Medicaid expansion population every 6 months, instead of the current 12 months.
Delay of eligibility rule: A Biden administration rule aimed at simplifying redeterminations and removing barriers to Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) enrollment would be delayed.
Note: These are potential impacts based on analysis of H.R. 1 as of July 3, 2025. The final impacts may vary depending on the ultimate outcome of the legislative process

AAII Sentiment Survey, 7/2/25
BULLISH became the top sentiment (45.0%, above average) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (21.9%, low*); bearish became the middle sentiment (33.1%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +11.9% (above average). Investor concerns: Tariffs, budget, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (175+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+14 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds up, oil up, gold up, dollar down. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 78.77% (overbought oversold). The Senate version of the budget bill is now at the House. July 9 tariff deadline is next week. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
*Uncertainty in the outlook is unusually low.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/2073/thread

a likely future
https://www.nytimes.com/2025/06/27/opinion/trump-budget-big-beautiful-bill.html

Bond returns cooled in the second quarter, as investors worried about the inflationary impact of tariffs and the growing federal budget deficit.
The actively managed Vanguard Short-Term Investment-Grade Bond Fund outperformed, while the PIMCO Total Return Fund fell behind its peers.
The Vanguard Intermediate-Term Corporate Bond ETF ranked in the top decile of its category, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF lagged.

https://morningstar.com/funds/how-largest-bond-funds-did-q2-2025

CGDV has whupped the S&P 500 since its creation. It's a classic growth and income fund.
If you were strictly interested in the dividends, and your only North Star is the 500, it would have been advisable to have gotten into them around five years ago, and then held on. I'm looking at funds like ONEY, RDIV, FDVV that are beating the return of SPY over the past five years no matter what has happened to them recently. There are probably others.
On my watch list I have to go back ten years to find SPY in the top fifteen funds. Most of the funds ahead of it back in the days of ZIRP were growth funds. And then there was the predecessor to BBLU. I think it still tends to beat SPY, depending on when you bought it.
Then COVID hit. And over the last five years I see SPY down to around #37. Over three years it climbs back up to #24. Over 12 months, returns were back down to 44 despite the fact it was "setting a record." YTD? Ringing in at #50, and another "record."
If one were paying attention to the actual return, one might get the impression that for the 500, things have changed.

I agree with you and I've been tracking their progress along with the addition of CGDV and QLTY into the mix. Why? I felt the addition of one or the other would add to my overall portfolio balance but I couldn't choose which one. I started positions in all 3 and here is the total return to date using the TCAF starting date.
CGDV 47.37%
TCAF 39.24%
SPY 39.97%
Since QLTY did not begin trading until 11/30/23 (QLTY inception) here are those total return figures.
CGDV 42.02
QLTY 33.27
TCAF 32.84
SPY 35.94
I agree that a longer time period is needed for fair judgment.

"If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index? Most, if not all S&P 500 indexes pay dividends.
"Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors", see above. He's also stated on numerous occasions how he loves collecting dividends from his holdings, just doesn't believe in paying any.
"And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
It says a lot." Yes, it says that not everyone thinks and/or invests like you say you do. Get over it.

Your usual off mark.
It's not about me it's about the data.
I didn't invent it, the guys I mentioned did it for a good reason.
This is not the off topic thread.
This is about investing. If you can educate US, do it with research.
Please get control of your anger.

@Sven
For me, the key was to buy solid dividend growers in a down market. It takes patience though. These end up being "accidental high yielders" in the 4-6% range who also who also have a history of increasing their dividends. If we're talking individual stocks, banks are good targets, select pharma companies, the occasional tech company (like Broadcom in 2020), insurance companies.
4-5% short term bonds makes it easy to be patient.

I will presume that companies in the Medicaid marketplace have been 'running the numbers' regarding impacts from HR-1 and funding cuts included in the legislation.
My search is somewhat related to Michigan, but would apply to other states.
NOTE: HR 1, also known as the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act," has significant provisions related to Medicaid dollar cuts. The Senate recently passed an amended version of HR 1 that, according to the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), would cut gross federal Medicaid and Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) spending by $1.02 trillion over the next ten years. This represents cuts that are even larger than those proposed in the House-passed version of the bill.

--- July 2, closing; Medicaid affected companies
EDIT: RGC in the list is an outlier to the domestic list. It is a Chinese herbal company being gamed by the day traders.
Apologies. I should have checked the unfamiliar name.
CNC Centene Corp, -40.4%
RGC Regencell Bioscience Holdings Ltd, -29.04%
MOH Molina Healthcare Inc, -21.96%
OSCR Oscar Health Inc, -18.69%
ELV Elevance Health Inc, -11.50%

--- Several major insurance companies offer Medicaid plans, with five large, publicly traded companies dominating the market. These include Centene, Elevance (formerly Anthem), UnitedHealth Group, Molina, and CVS Health. In Michigan, Priority Health is a prominent provider of Medicaid plans, including MIChild, Healthy Michigan Plan, and Children's Special Health Care Services.
Here's a more detailed look:
Dominant Players:
Centene, Elevance, UnitedHealth, Molina, and CVS Health manage a significant portion of Medicaid enrollees nationally. These companies operate Medicaid managed care organizations (MCOs) in many states.
Michigan Medicaid:
Priority Health is a major player in Michigan, offering Medicaid, MIChild, Healthy Michigan Plan, and Children's Special Health Care Services.
Other Michigan Plans:
Other options in Michigan include Aetna Better Health, UPMC for You, and UnitedHealthcare Community Plan.
NCQA Ratings:
The National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA) provides ratings for Medicaid health plans. Some Michigan plans with high ratings include Upper Peninsula Health Plan, Meridian Health Plan of Michigan, Priority Health, and Blue Cross Complete of Michigan.
Managed Care:
Many states use managed care to deliver Medicaid benefits, with comprehensive risk-based managed care being a common approach, according to Medicaid and CHIP Payment and Access Commission (MACPAC).

Thank you all for attending! Will post chart deck and session video shortly. c
Today, Thursday, 3 July, we will be conducting our mid-year webinar to review funds and the MFO Premium site. If you can make it, please join us by registering here. Just one session: 11 a.m. Pacific (2 p.m. Eastern).

TCAF vs SPY will be a fascinating battle to watch play out over time. Need more time = 5 years.
TCAF 15.74% avg annual return vs 16.56% SPY from inception 6/14/2023 thru March 31.
TCAF higher ER which compounds over time. Other metrics in the same ballpark thus far.

@FD1000, I really like the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow and use it in my financial model. It is subject to wild swings early on and then becomes more accurate as it gets more data. Currently, GDPNow is estimating GDP growth for the second quarter to be 2.55%, down from the 4.6% that you mentioned from June 2nd.
Imports are subtracted from the GDP estimate. Imports increased as investors raced to beat tariffs. Import data on FRED are updated through April. May and June data will have a major impact on GDP estimates.
As for inflation, the effects of tariffs should hit store shelves in July so estimates of inflation have a great deal of uncertainty. The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Second Quarter 2025 Survey of Professional Forecasters shows that economists estimate that inflation will peak at 3.4% next quarter and decline to 2.5% in 2026 and 2.1% in 2027. The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development released its OECD Economic Outlook, with estimates that inflation in the US will average 3.2% in 2025 and 2.8% in 2026. In “2025 Economy Watch”, The Conference Board estimated that inflation would average 2.9% in 2025 and 3.0% in 2026. The International Monetary Fund database estimates that consumer prices in the US will be 3.0% in 2025, 2.5% in 2026, and 2.1% in 2027.

In my rush to get this month's article out before taking a trip, I wrote, "Equity valuations are high, which are tailwinds for domestic stocks." Obviously, high valuations are a headwind for stocks.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2025/06/protecting-against-tariff-induced-inflation/
In regard to Professor Snowball's article, Aegis Value Fund (AVALX), I have been studying AVALX for the past several weeks. I like it for its small cap "deep" value approach and long-term performance. I purchased it this morning after a cup of coffee and its recent dip.

Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Monday, 30 June 2025. Was able to get preview of next Saturday's full data drop by using MTD data for June returns.

As a follow up to a comment above about Katie S's statement, here's the quote. Correction, I posted she said this yesterday, she actually said it Monday:
"Our market internals are supportive of a bigger rebound," Stockton told clients in a note on Monday. "Sentiment has recovered meaningfully per the Fear & Greed Index, which is back above 25% after becoming deeply oversold earlier this month."
However, according to Stockton, a break above the S&P 500's 50-day moving average would likely be short-lived and ultimately give way to renewed weakness.
"Both the SPX and Nasdaq-100 Index have room to initial resistance at their 50-day MAs, respectively 5625 and 19680, breakouts above which would likely foster additional momentum before the rally fails," she said.

We now know that Stockton was wrong, and it wasn't the first time.
Since April 30, the SP500 made a new high instead of weakness as Stockton predicted.

"If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index? Most, if not all S&P 500 indexes pay dividends.
"Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors", see above. He's also stated on numerous occasions how he loves collecting dividends from his holdings, just doesn't believe in paying any.
"And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
It says a lot." Yes, it says that not everyone thinks and/or invests like you say you do. Get over it.

This debate of divvies vs the SP500 is decades old.
Until the 1970s, many profitable companies paid dividends—it was the standard.
But then came the tech revolution. It started in the '70s, gained momentum in the '80s, and exploded in the decades that followed.
That shift proved something important: dividends are an outdated concept.
Tech companies showed that instead of paying out cash, they could reinvest in R&D, acquire smaller companies, and execute massive stock buybacks—delivering far more value through total return.
Today, total return is the only game in town.
Yes, some dividend-paying companies still perform well, but dividend stocks with low performance are useless—you’re just collecting crumbs while losing real value.
I always wonder:
If dividend stocks are so great, why did Jack Bogle—after years of research—create the S&P 500 index, not a dividend index?
Why did Warren Buffett endorse the S&P 500 (SPY) for most investors, not a handpicked list of dividend payers?
Why do top managers worldwide hold a diversified mix, not just dividend stocks?
And finally, why are so many trying to sell you dividend strategies, while almost no one pushes the simple, boring, and proven SPY?
It says a lot.

Mostly entertainment. First 10 minutes is worth watching with Boaz Weinstein comparing playing Blackjack to trading CEFs.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics releases the US Misery Index on a monthly basis.
This index is calculated by adding the inflation rate to the unemployment rate.
As we know, the Fed's dual mandate stipulates price stability and maximum sustainable employment.
The Misery Index level was 6.555 on May 31 which is historically very low.
Also, the future economic impact of tariffs is highly uncertain.
Taking this all into consideration, there doesn't seem to be a compelling reason for the Fed to start raising rates.
https://ycharts.com/indicators/us_misery_index