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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Retirees: How to Protect Your RRSP From a Stock Market Crash!
    https://www.fool.ca/2020/02/29/retirees-how-to-protect-your-rrsp-from-a-stock-market-crash/
    (Canadian article)
    Retirees: How to Protect Your RRSP From a Stock Market Crash!
    This week, markets have been crashing worldwide on fears that the ongoing COVID-19 spread will massively impact the global economy. Already, we’re seeing supply chains severely disrupted, as Chinese factories shut down and buyers like Apple tell investors to brace for weaker-than-anticipated earnings. For retirees who are banking on their RRSP to carry them through their golden years, it’s a scary time. While Canadian markets aren’t down as much as U.S. markets, we’re beginning to feel the heat at home, and virtually all equity markets are down worldwide.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    If I may, while the closing share price for PCI was off -7.6% for the week the NAV price was down by only -1.6%. (For those who don't mingle with CEF's the share price is what other investors are willing to pay you for your share.) So yes, the premium was slashed by -7.6% but I don't expect that to last.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Rates of death 20s% over 80 years old, 14% 60 to 80 years old, less than 1% if younger than 60
    More than 1/5ths trump voters maybe out by end of may,/june
    Trump Biden bernie Bloomberg may be gone, high exposures to crowded areas
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    In case you missed it
    More cases in washington state one dating from specimen January 19th It has been circulating for weeks
    None with any travel history or contact. Possibly one in RI
    Faucci who is a hero for banging the drum about AIDS and has been head of NIH infectious disease institute since 1983,was scheduled for all five Sunday talk shows but was suddenly replaced by HHS secretary who is a pharmaceutical executive not a doc. Trump of course says he was not muzzled
    I am curious why Faucci is going along with these orders. He is almost 80 years old and has nothing to gain and a lot to loose by cooperating too much with the Trump morons.
    He must believe he can somehow influence them, and can still get out before the tar baby coats him and his stellar reputation goes down the drain.
    If I were him I would have a massive press conference, call a spade a spade and dare them to publicaly fire me
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    With respect to Central and South America, here are elected excerpts from a current article from the AP via the San Francisco Chronicle:
    Officials in Ecuador on Saturday confirmed the first case of the new coronavirus in the South American nation, while Mexico reported two more cases and Brazil one more.
    It was the second case in South America, following a Brazilian case reported on Wednesday. The Sao Paulo state health department reported another Brazilian case later on Saturday — a person who had recently visited Italy.
    Mexico's Health Department said late Friday that a new case had been confirmed in Mexico City, adding to the first two confirmed cases announced earlier that day. One of those was also in the capital, and the other in the northwestern state of Sinaloa.
    The governor of the northern border state of Coahuila said Saturday that federal health officials had confirmed a fourth case, in the city of Torreon: a 20-year-old woman who traveled to Europe, including Milan, Italy, in January and February and returned to Mexico in recent days.
    If you don't proactively test for the virus then you have no idea if it's present or not. How many of those "Southern and equator" countries do you suppose have the resources for, and actually are, actively testing?
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Analysis at the end, after the performance.

    Performance......YTD...one week as of 2/29/2020

    Multi
    PDIIX……1.35....-1.0
    PUCZX….0.7..…-1.35
    JMUTX....1.3....-0.6
    JMSIX.....1.4….-0.1 (JGIAX)
    PTIAX….3.7….1.0
    Multi(high % securitized)
    PIMIX.....0.3….-1.0
    EIXIX…..1.6….-0.1
    VCFAX...1.75...-0.05
    IOFIX.....2.85....+0.1
    SEMMX...1.8....0    (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 30% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    DHEIX….1.4….0.35 (ST duration, 3 year SD under 1, over 80% IG bonds-good cash sub)
    HY Munis
    PHMIX…..4.6.....1
    NHMAX....5.35.....1
    MMHAX....4.15.…..1
    OPTAX.....6.3.....1.
    ORNAX….5.3……1.3
    GHYAX......4.4......1
    GWMEX….5.3…...1.5  (IG Munis but BBB+A rating)
    NVHAX……2.8……0.4  (ST duration HY Munis-lower SD than the above)
    Inter Term CORe/CORE PLUS
    USIBX.......3.4.....0.7
    BCOIX......3.5…...0.9
    PINCX……3.5..…0.9
    BND….......3.7…....1.1
    Bank Loans/Floating rate
    EIFAX.......-1.05.....-1.6
    Uncontrain/Nontrad
    IISIX..........0.4....-0.6
    PUTIX......-0.1….-0.2
    PAJZX……-1.45….-3.6
    HY +EM
    HYG.........-1.75.....-2.6
    PHIYX.......-1.5.....-2.4
    ZEOIX……-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY, 3 year SDCorporate
    PIGIX….…3.2.….-0.15
    VCIT……..3.4…..0.8
    Preferred
    PFINX…...-0.4……-3.2
    OTHER
    FXAIX.…..-8.3..…-11.4  (SP500)
    PCI………-5.4... -7.6  (CEF)
    “CASH SUB" (most with 3 years SD under 1 or close to it)
    SEMMX...1.8....0      
    DHEIX….1.4….0.35
    ZEOIX…-0.1….-0.8 (ST HY)
    DBLSX…0.75….0.1
    LALDX….1.0….0.1
    SSTHX….-0.85….-1.2  (ST HY)
    MWCIX….1.0.….-0.1
    PMZIX….1.3….0.25
    BTMIX….1.3.…0.3 (ST Muni but I prefer NVHAX for LT)
    Observations:
    Last week was a clear way to separate the winner from the loser. Rates were down dramatically, stocks are in correction and panic is in the air. Since last week was such a major one I decided to post about YTD + one week.
    Multi- mixed bag last week.  PIMIX+PUCZX lost badly while PTIAX shined. Most in securitized did OK
    HY Munis continues to be a great category with 1+% for the week and very strong YTD and much better than Inter-Term higher rated funds.
    Inter term – did well as expected when rates are down
    Bank loans – as expected were down but not as much as HY.  I use this category only when I know rates are going up.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad-are lagging and not impressive which tells you it’s usually not a good category LT
    HY+EM – both lost money last week and not doing well YTD.
    Corp – This category did well last week and YTD but PIGIX didn’t do well last week.
    SP500-in correction
    PCI-as expected from a CEF it was down last week.  At times like this CEFs are exposed.
    “CASH” Sub-a unique category to make more money with minimal risk at SD less than 1.  It is obvious the best funds(SEMMX,DHEIX,PMZIX) are mostly in securitized which is my favorite category anyway. DHEIX has 80+% in investment-grade bonds if you like "safer" bonds.  SEMMX has the best peformance. PMZIX has done well YTD but not as good as the first 2 for 3 years.
    ===========================
    Generic Views
    My 2 favorite categories are Multi+HY Munis.
    HY Munis-The funds that I usually invest in are NHMAX,OPTAX,ORNAX.  OPTAX has done best YTD
    The Multi funds I’m interested are SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,PIMIX,PUCZX,JMUTX,JMSIX/JGIAX.  SEMMX is the best performer for SD < 1 and IOFIX the best for SD<2.7. VCFAX+EIXIX are pretty good and invest at 85-90+% in securitized.  JMUTX+JMSIX are more diversified, actually, JMSIX was a nice surprise of losing just -0.1%. PIMIX+PUCZX are funds with moving parts and did worse than others, they are now going to my second-tier list. PTIAX has the best momo YTD so I have to pay attention.
    “CASH” Sub-Investors who don't mind and understand the risk, may use SEMMX,DHEIX(ZEOIX is off the list)  as a cash sub LT, see 3 year SD<1(link).  In taxable you can use ST duration Munis. NVHAX duration is about 4 which is between ST to LT
    IISIX disappointed.  Last year It looked like a better option for 3 years but VCFAX is the winner.  Again, funds with too many moving parts(PIMIX,PUCZX,PUTIX,PAJZX,IISIX) didn’t do well at this time of need.
  • Need an opinion
    @Bobpa, did you get out of Intelligent Portfolio? I meet with my Schwab guy this week and that is one of the topics I will discuss with him.
    Hi @Derf. I am not in a target date fund... yet. I have 1/2 my IRA in the Schwab robo but my plan is to reduce that or even get out altogether. When I do a big chunk will go to the TRP 2020 fund.
    No major storms in the Rochester area. In fact it hasn't been to bad a winter here. Forecast is mid to upper 40s the next 10 days. Hoping for an early start to golf season this year!
  • Need an opinion
    Hi sir...imho if you have long term horizon >10yrs probably keep trucking and keep place your new monies into lifecycles etf funds or sp500/dows/qqq etf.
    This is what we did before and continued after 2007 crash and we did extremely well
    If short term horizon few yrs til retirement probably best to speak to fidelity or Schwab advisors./vanguard advisors and decide best actions maybe placed to high bond portfolio/cash/monies-CD high quality corporate bonds. We rebalance mama portfolio 16 months ago (she retired now high 50s%bonds and 40%stocks) ; she lost 1.5% over past 5 wks but lots Dividends from Corp bonds come in tomorrow so she maybe happy in next few days
    Her few top holdings DODFX /fidelity contrafund(we stop distributing to these fund),
    But continued to add to fbnd, phk, jnk, fidelity2015 lifecycle fund, poncx, lsbrx
    Very conservative portfolio
    For mine portfolio highest holdings are in brk.b, dows etf, vti vanguard primecap core, vgstx, spy, eem...we continued to add to these recently
    2%in gold, 1% cash
    We added vde energy oil etf late friday
    Regards
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Well OK then. Cool. He's got it all covered. Moron. But of course I'm a scientist and not a businessperson.
    Government COVID-19 plan
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Tis likely that you have a site or sites you may prefer, if you're curious about changing circumstances regarding COVID-19.
    This news link is decent, although not fully inclusive of all changes. Note: depending upon your browser; you may have to refresh the page for the most current info (age of data shown just above first pic).
    Two other sites I've been using, which are using data base graphics. You'll have to "play" with these to discover how the site functions.
    John Hopkins
    BNO, Netherlands Note: site updates have slowed in the past several days.
    Add: The COVID-19 remains a concern for equity investments and a likely positive for investment grade bonds, in particular U.S. gov't. issues. Events and travel continue to be curtailed, be it government or private sector. These among many other reactions from global citizens will have an impact, yes? So, GDP/growth going forward will take a hit, IMHO. No fancy math required. Consumer spending in this country is a large portion of what "makes things go 'round".
    A view from the past week ending is interesting. I don't know whether the "end of the month window dressing" is any longer something that active managed funds use or do. Although I suspect this attempt is no longer valid with so many other products and players in the markets, in particular, the algo driven investments. Must have been a choice of play....the large cap growth area. But, watching the U.S. equity markets on Friday had a few areas that were interesting. Mid-day on Friday found growth equity clawing its way for periods of positive direction.
    The top 10 positive returns for active managed U.S. equity funds on Friday for Fidelity were all large cap growth. Hmmmm.
    Bonds for the past week. Although I.G. bond prices were positive for the week, a lot of the bump arrived on Friday. I expected larger price movements for all days of the week. Also, that as U.S. equity had a bump in the last 30 minutes of Friday, bonds also found some selling from profit taking or whatever ???
    Also, that China is supposedly opening some manufacturing. 'Course, who knows.
    Be well,
    Catch
  • Need an opinion
    Hi Bobpa
    I must presume you have ready access to about whatever balanced fund you desire.
    Over a +10 year time (the longer the better), none of your choices will vary much, or at least enough to cause concern, IMHO.
    chart, from July, 2008 to date
    Moderate Allocation list
    Build your own: BAGIX and FDGRX , 198% average since July, 2008 chart
    Comparative returns from my list in the chart, from July, 2008:
    --- JBALX = 159%
    --- VLAAX = 152%
    --- FBALX = 143%
    --- VWINX = 135%
    *** BAGIX and FDGRX, build your own = 198% (note: FDGRX closed, with exceptions, but an excellent equity example in the growth fund area.
    Overview: If one holds a 50-70% moderate allocation fund, active managed; there will be periods when equity takes a hit that will cause the investor to have "oh, crap" moments.
    There is nothing designed into these type of funds that attempts to "out think" the markets, Standard balanced funds had "ah-ha" periods during the 2008 market melt, the 2011 downgrade of the AAA rating of U.S. debt by Moody's, a period in 2015-2016, a market thump in Feb. 2018, a big downward hit in Dec. 2018 and this past week. Given a long period, a quality fund in this area; from a firm that has a long enough track record to support a proper review, should allow an investor to pick from a top 20 or 30 list resulting in similar return outcomes over any 10 year period. A top 20 list is going to have comparisons, variations over shorter time frames due to management changes in holdings and what sector of the equity market in "hot" for awhile. A quality choice should serve anyone well in this area, with perhaps the greatest risk to the portfolio coming from the ability of the investor to stay with a plan. One may have faith in the skills of the management of a fund or build your own balanced fund. One bond fund and one equity fund or perhaps 2 of each at the most, for more of a diversified mix.
    Only my view, Bobpa.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    I have been watching this for several weeks since the virus news broke late December 2019. There is a fear that drive investors toward the safest asset, US treasury. This pushes down the yield while raises the price. Not sure if Treasury is over-bought or not, but the yield is declining steadily.
  • What funds or ETFs have held up best for you in the past 2 days?
    Of course, high rated bonds were up and why EDV+TLT are up so much YTD, last month and last week.
    As expected VWINX did fine because it has about 60% in high rated bonds and why VASIX with about 80% did better than VWINX.
    The question is what funds have great LT risk/reward but also did well in a meltdown?
    See a 3 year (chart) of IOFIX vs PRWCX,VLAAX,VWINX,VASIX. Then look at YTD (chart). This is what I call a great fund but not fair when stocks lost so much :-)
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    It's not what you look at that matters, it's what you see.
    Henry David Thoreau
    --- 30 year UST yield = 1.68% (3.09%, 2-28-19)
    --- 10 year UST yield = 1.16% (2.73%, 2-28-19)
    So, the spoken and written word here and there, remains; that bonds are overbought, a "who would want to own bonds with a yield of 1.16%"? This is true, if bond yields flat line at this yield or increase, eh?
    A variety of thoughts may be put forth as to why yields continue the downward path, in particular, since the 2008 market melt; although not a straight path.
    Past this, the overwhelming aspect is that when yields retreat, this is where the money is made from pricing. I do not dismiss that bonds are generally a balance to equity in a portfolio.
    The current global circumstance with COVID-19, it's reality, however large or small; continues to create anxiety on many levels.
    I expect many bond types to continue to move forward with "overbought".
    As for equity, perhaps oversold may not be finished.
    With both areas, I expect gyrations.
    Good evening,
    Catch
  • What funds or ETFs have held up best for you in the past 2 days?
    Worst: Two weeks ago, HACAX was up 13% YTD. Now it's down 2% YTD. So it's still beating S&P 500 YTD. I've held it around 20 years. The shares come with a seatbelt and owner's manual.
    Best: DODIX.
  • What funds or ETFs have held up best for you in the past 2 days?
    These are the funds which generated the highest returns for me during this volatile week.
    Bond Funds 1 WK YTD
    Dodge & Cox Income (DODIX) 0.35% 2.49%
    Vanguard Ultra-Short-Term Bond (VUSFX) 0.25% 0.65%
    Equity Funds 1 WK YTD
    Vanguard Intl Growth (VWILX) -8.27% -5.21%
    MFS Instl Intl Equity (MIEIX) -8.44% -8.44%
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    @FD1000, you sold NHMAX and the chart you show, to me, says anything but sell. If I remember correctly you like to base your in-and-out on trends. The trend is up for quite a long while. What am I missing.
    I bought NHMAX while you were selling and so far very glad I did.
  • PIMIX vs PUCZX
    US treasury and high quality investment grade bonds have done the best. Junk and emerging market (USD hedged or local currency) bonds had declined.
    When rates decline high rated bonds do great.
    As a mainly bondholder like me who wants to make more money in bonds, I'm looking for more flexible funds that do better in most markets.
    NHMAX (HY Muni) has over 70% below investment grade bonds but they still managed to make 1% last week.
    While most Multi lost money last week IOFIX made just 0.07 but PTIAX made 1% and VCFAX,SEMMX just lost -0.1%
    When rates will go up treasuries will lose a lot more.
    PUCZX+PIMIX disappointed last week. I use PIMIX as a second-tier fund since early 2018 and now added PUCZX to the same list. I can still use both for trading. PUCZX is rated at the top 5-9% for 1-3 years at M* but 49 for YTD. PIMIX is rated at YTD-63 one year-69 3 yr-23
  • One stunning chart shows how severe this selloff has been: Morning Brief
    @Puddnhead Eisenhower had a heart attack on 9/24/55. (I was a military brat living near Washington D.C. at that time and vaguely remember that happening.) On Monday 9/26/55 the market dropped 6.5%. My assumption is it dropped far enough further during the next several days to achieve that 10%+ distinction.