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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • One stunning chart shows how severe this selloff has been: Morning Brief
    And one chart from Deutsche Bank’s Torsten Sløk shows just how severe this decline has been and makes clear to investors that the coronavirus selloff doesn’t just feel like a unique market event — this time really is different.

    image
    This is an impressive chart. My sense is rich valuations linked hands with uncertainty about the virus to produce this outcome. It will probably take a few weeks for a clear understanding of the situation to emerge. In the meantime, I suspect the Fed will lower the discount rate to try to moderate the pain. But, how much good will that do in the short term if it turns out people are afraid to get on a plane or go to the grocery store? Maybe Amazon and MMM will prosper! Anyway, here is a link to the short article.
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/stock-market-selloff-chart-magnitude-morning-brief-105856893.html
  • Coronavirus Has Battered the Stock Market. These Mutual Funds Are Still Holding Up.
    https://www.google.com/search?source=hp&ei=Vi1ZXv25LMyMtgW5p7qYAg&q=Coronavirus+Has+Battered+the+Stock+Market.+These+Mutual+Funds+Are+Still+Holding+Up&oq=Coronavirus+Has+Battered+the+Stock+Market.+These+Mutual+Funds+Are+Still+Holding+Up&gs_l=mobile-gws-wiz-hp.3...2960.2960..4052...0.0..0.200.200.2-1......0....2j1.......0.ar5imyXU5S4
    Coronavirus Has Battered the Stock Market. These Mutual Funds Are Still Holding Up
    Incognito google search
    By Daren Fonda
    Updated Feb. 28, 2020 6:00 am ET / Original Feb. 28, 2020 5:03 am ET
    The market’s tumble has hammered most stock funds. But a few mutual funds that use options and other alternative strategies have held up—and could be winners if equity markets continue to fall.
  • What funds or ETFs have held up best for you in the past 2 days?
    YAFFX has/has 13% in Samsung bonds. That is probably the reason for big drop.
  • A look ahead for the overnight potentials in the markets......
    S&P 500 is down 12% from the pear as of Feb 12, 2020. That is less than 2 weeks ago.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    So far for YTD and the last several crazy days, IOFIX easily beat all these "lower volatility" multisector funds.
    See YTD (chart) of IOFIX,PIMIX,VCFAX,PUCZX,JMSIX,JMUTX. The chart shows up to 2/27 but when I copy the link it's only to 2/26
    IOFIX is the only fund that is still at the high for year.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    Hi guys,
    Hope all is well with you....it's only money. You're still vertical, so all is well. Did nothing so far. Waiting for tomorrow to see what happens. No one will want to buy before the weekend, so Monday or Tuesday will be big. This is overblown, as usual. A year from now, things should be good, so be stout......have a longneck or 2. And think long term. I have losers who are going to be sold at some point, so this is good. It's a weeding process. The buy I want to make is VWINX. Have been waiting for this. So let's go down. Started investing in 1980....Dow.....less than a thousand. Why run now, boys? Hell! Only a fool would sell now....YES!!
    God bless
    the Pudd
  • PIMIX vs PUCZX
    PIMIX is invested at over 75% in securitized. A good replacement fund is VCFAX with about 90% in securitized. JMUTX+PUCZX are more diversified.
    So, I would rate these 4 funds as follow. If you want lower SD then go with VCFAX, if you want better performance then go with PUCZX (its higher SD is still relatively OK)
    Look at PV(link)

    FD,
    Why do you suppose PUCZX was down 0.38% yesterday? I do not recall this much movement.
    Mona
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Hi @expatsp
    Yes, supply chain remains a very valid circumstance. One item next (1) is more timely and critical for what has already started in U.S.; and the other (2) not so much, but provides a prospective, too.
    1. I don't recall exactly, but a U.S. manufacturer; reported that their (electronic product) production is okay; except for final assembly and out the door to their customers..........well, because the needed final assembled power cord is from China, they are out of this item and apparently don't have a back up supplier.
    2. The NHL players, and likely semi-pro and some college level are managing the use of their hockey sticks; as the PRO/individual/custom level sticks are 75% built in China. No inbound, replacement sticks.
    @rforno noted previous about reaction to the POTUS news conference.
    Lastly, and related to COVID and the president's news conference Wednesday evening regarding same. By chance, I was working in a separate room and had Bloomberg tv dialed up. I decided to watch. Pretty sad. A tiny overview from the press corp questions and what is the normal wandering around a subject to distract and deflect. Blamed so-called concern with the virus towards CNN, MSNBC and Dems. and fake news. Pelosi is incompetent, etc. The link below is a short read.
    A few of the words from the conference.
    Take care,
    Catch
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Most recent JAMA article 20% Chinese cases severe or critical
    https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jama/fullarticle/2762130
    Covid 19 is largely unknown and as the world has no immunity could infect almost everyone. The infection rate is estimated a two cases per contact, a bit less than regular flu, but far less than measles, so it may be slow moving but persistent.
    The mortality rate seems to be lower than H1N1 flu pandemic in 2009 ( see below) but we really dont know as we can't trust Chinese statistics and the current testing methods are a bit suspect. It is unlikely the 11% seen in the H1N1 study quoted below, and I can't imagine the Chinese could have covered up 20% of 80,000 people dying but who knows. Per the JAMA article they claim overall mortality of 2.3% and 15% over 80 yo, far higher than usual flu ( less than 1% even in elderly)
    "During the study period there were 1088 cases of hospitalization or death due to pandemic 2009 influenza A(H1N1) infection reported in California. The median age was 27 years (range,<1-92 years) and 68% (741/1088) had risk factors for seasonal influenza complications. 31% (340/1088) required intensive care. Rapid antigen tests were falsely negative in 34% (208/618) of cases evaluated. Secondary bacterial infection was identified in 4% (46/1088).
    Overall fatality was 11% (118/1088) and was highest (18%-20%) in persons aged 50 years or older. The most common causes of death were viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome"
    What is not really known is the incubation period and if asymptomatic people are virus shredders and for how long.
    While the 1918 pandemic deaths were largely due to pneumonia, as mentioned above, influenza frequently kills just by itself ( viral pneumonia and acute respiratory distress syndrome) especially in susceptible young people whose immune system goes into overdrive.
    When we get data from more reliable countries like Italy and Korea we will have a better idea of the impact especially the hospitalization rate and mortality. This will be the human costs, but the economic costs will ( have already) include direct medical expenses, supply chain disruptions, people afraid to go out and travel and shop and go to work.
    What I haven't heard much of is the fact that this could be far far worse. What if this thing had Ebola's mortality rate? There is probably a bat virus out there that does so we need to reevaluate our dependence on China, excessive foreign travel, cutting biological research funding etc etc.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio

    SPX is well on its way to hit price levels from July 2019.
    1.3M SPX eminis moved already by 945 this morning. To me that suggests right now is more panic than rational hedging. But that's just one opinion.
    Urge to start nibbling rising.
  • PIMIX vs PUCZX
    PIMIX is invested at over 75% in securitized. A good replacement fund is VCFAX with about 90% in securitized. JMUTX+PUCZX are more diversified.
    So, I would rate these 4 funds as follow. If you want lower SD then go with VCFAX, if you want better performance then go with PUCZX (its higher SD is still relatively OK)
    Look at PV(link)
  • 1.90% 30 yr UST.....change notice, 1.00% w/.54% on 10 yr UST; "Welcome to the Twilight Zone"
    8:25 A.M.
    --- Looked at markets last night before pillow time, and equity still looked shaky globally.
    I was surprised with market closes on Feb. 26, Wednesday; with the very flat and poor price performance of investment grade bonds in the U.S. gov't. area. I won't be surprised with what may be a problem with price performance in the corp. investment grade bond area, as corporations may be stressed for performance numbers at this point.....earnings dinged.
    Not that I.G. bonds are not offering downward protection against the uncertain equity markets; I merely expected more positive performance.
    Will be watching today (Fed. 27). as the pre-market yield numbers for the 30 year UST is 1.76% and the 10 year UST is 1.27%.
  • PIMIX vs PUCZX
    Thank you for the explanation about the fees. My other concern with PIMIX is the 136.4 billion they have to manage vs the 1.4 billion PUCZX. PUCZX seems to be doing a little better with just a bit more risk. What I’m not sure about is how similar are these funds. It looks like they use some of the same strategies, but I’m really not sure.
  • BUY - SELL - OR PONDER February 2020
    Old_Skeet did a little equity buying today in a couple of good dividend paying funds with yields north of 3%. In comparison, I have the US10YrT closing with a yield of only 1.33% as I write. I'm now leaning more towards equity income more so than I am fixed income.
    Vanguard Equity Income Fund. VEIRX. Wifey did great in that one.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    mortality thus far seems mostly dependent on response of own immune system, whose overreaction appears to be what does the killing, chiefly, lung lesions and so on.
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/health/2020/02/19/how-coronavirus-kills/
    pneumonias yes also, so be sure you are up on pneumvax and prevnar.
    in general not adequate medical care, so far as we know.
    what would that be, short of a vaccine ?
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Market is NOT just dropping due to Covid-19 but also because Brenie may be candidate from Democratic side for Presidency.
  • PIMIX vs PUCZX
    If the reason why you are considering leaving PIMIX is an increase in its reported ER (0.74% in the 2018 summary prospectus, 1.05% in the 2019 summary prospectus), I respectfully suggest that you take a closer look.
    The true operating costs of funds vary from year to year based on how they execute their strategies. If a fund decides to trade more frequently, its costs (due to commissions, spreads, etc.) rise. This rise isn't reflected in its ER because trading costs aren't included in the ER, but it's an increase just the same. Now if you like the idea of the fund trading more frequently, then you accept the higher expense as a cost of doing business.
    Similarly, if a fund decides to use more leverage by, e.g. borrowing short and lending long, its interest costs go up (to borrow short term money). If you like that strategy, you accept the interest charges as a cost of leveraging. Unlike trading costs that are hidden out of sight, interest expenses are hidden in plain view, buried in the ER.
    This is why PIMCO footnotes the ERs in its prospectuses.
    To the extent a Fund enters into certain investments, such as reverse repurchase agreements, or enters into certain borrowings, such as a line of credit, the Fund incurs interest expense. Interest expense is required to be treated as an expense of the Fund for accounting purposes, but the amount of interest expense, if any, will vary from year to year with the Fund’s use of such investments or borrowings as an investment strategy.
    From a 2011 SEC filing in response to SEC comments on what PIMCO includes in its prospectuses.
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/810893/000119312511156143/filename1.htm
    These are not comments pro or con about either of the funds.
  • COVID-19 and the portfolio
    Old_Skeet did a little equity buying today in a couple of good dividend paying funds with yields north of 3%. In comparison, I have the US10YrT closing with a yield of only 1.33%. I'm now leaning more towards equity than I am fixed.