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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    @Old_Skeet Your comment about reducing your stock percentage to accommodate your overweight in high yield bond funds sounds familiar to me. I finally settled on accounting for that issue by including all but very short duration high yield and EM bond funds in the allocation made to my Mixed Asset 1 Pot. Current holdings in that pot include VWINX, HBLAX, WFLEX, and MAINX. ARTFX was previously held in that pot but was sold to help fund the purchase of the bond CEFs now held in my newly created Mixed Asset 3 Pot (PDI, MCI, and DSL). I discussed that new pot above without using that title. I was able to reestablish a position in PDI on 12/24/18 at a slight discount thanks to a timely heads up from @expatsp I read on this site!
  • How's your 401(k) doing-401(k)s hit records as workers sock away more, stocks jump
    Hi @hank
    You noted: "- I contended a while back (some other thread) that worker contributions tend to increase when markets are richly valued. Fidelity’s observations might support that."
    Based upon my observations regarding 401k/403b plan participants over many years; the participants have a chosen amount of money placed each pay period into their plan, regardless of what the markets are doing.
    One may suspect there is a very small percentage (less than 5%) of these participants who actually pay attention to the markets. Those who do pay attention may alter some of their allocations periodically; but not likely the contribution amount, unless there is a change in their overall financial circumstance.
    My inflation adjusted 2 cents worth
    Catch
  • How's your 401(k) doing-401(k)s hit records as workers sock away more, stocks jump
    “The average 401(k) balance rose 17% last year to $112,300 from the end of 2018, according to a review of 17.3 million accounts by Fidelity Investments. The average individual retirement account, or IRA, balance rose the same percentage to $115,400”.
    - Socking away more ? The balance increases reported don’t reflect that, since the S&P rose 31+% in 2019 (according to the article).
    - Are these numbers for only Fidelity’s clients? Or are they referencing data for the total of all U.S. retirement savers? If only Fidelity, numbers may not be representative.
    - Do the reported balances represent all retirement plans - or just those where the holder hasn’t yet retired? (Let’s hope it’s the former.)
    - I contended a while back (some other thread) that worker contributions tend to increase when markets are richly valued. Fidelity’s observations might support that.
    By whatever means it takes to increase a 401k value. Doesn't matter what the market valuations are. It is simply picking the correct investment for one's age and retirement horizon.
  • *
    DHEAX has been discussed well back into 2019 at M*. Not sure if you are referring to MFO only.
    ================================
    Well, that's the thing about the internet...
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEAX was on 10/30/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&collapse_discussion=true
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEIX was by yogi in a Barron's Summary on 04/29/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&page=2&collapse_discussion=true
    The majority of posts about them, here and there, have been in the last TWO months, yet posters like to celebrate them (and hundreds of other funds) as though they knew about them/owned them during the period they refer to them as the better/best.
    So what's your point again?
    DHEAX has been discussed well back into 2019 at M*. Not sure if you are referring to MFO only.
    ================================
    Well, that's the thing about the internet...
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEAX was on 10/30/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&collapse_discussion=true
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEIX was by yogi in a Barron's Summary on 04/29/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&page=2&collapse_discussion=true
    The majority of posts about them, here and there, have been in the last TWO months, yet posters like to celebrate them (and hundreds of other funds) as though they knew about them/owned them during the period they refer to them as the better/best.
    So what's your point again?
    Why so testy? I was only commenting. I have been considering DHEAX for much longer than a couple of months. One will never know how long it was discussed on M* because the forum changed less than a year ago. Cheers.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
    It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.

    The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
    I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
    In the past, you said several times that
    1) I will never retire but I did
    2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
    and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.
    I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

    @Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.
    No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
    My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
    I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.
    FD, please take a breath, relax and re-read my post. I did not comment on your investing. The correction I posted about was a MARKET correction, about the OP. I had the misfortune to post after a derogative post. My post had no quote attached. No apology needed.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    @davidrmoran
    Yes, I have had access to an advisor for many years with a grandfathered account where I received a good number of A share funds from my late parents. It is in this account that I can, at times, purchase some A share funds at nav or reduced commissions depending on the fund company. Also, I can hold C shares if desired; but, thus far have elected to hold only A share funds. Perhaps, you have failed to remember that I became an investor at the age of 12 in, or about, 1960.
    In addition, there are no fees charged to me for this mutual fund holding account other than what the fund companies pay the broker. This also applies to my self directed IRA account for both me and my wife but not to my health savings account which does have a fee associated with it.
    From my perspective I've got a good deal that probably could not be had today without some sort of direct or wrap fee arrangement associated with it.
    According to Morningstar Instant X-ray my mutual expense computes to 0.78 percent.
  • Janus' The Organics and The Obesity ETFs to liquidate
    Not healthy....
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1500604/000119312520036572/d882023d497.htm
    497 1 d882023d497.htm JANUS DETROIT STREET TRUST
    Janus Detroit Street Trust
    The Organics ETF
    The Obesity ETF
    Supplement dated February 14, 2020
    to Currently Effective Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information (“SAI”)
    The Board of Trustees of Janus Detroit Street Trust (the “Trust”) approved a plan to liquidate and terminate The Organics ETF (”ORG”) and The Obesity ETF (“SLIM” and, together with ORG, the “Funds”), effective on or about March 17, 2020 (the “Liquidation Date”). After the close of business on or about March 12, 2020, the Funds will no longer accept creation orders. Trading in the Funds will be halted prior to market open on or about March 13, 2020. Proceeds of the liquidation are currently scheduled to be sent to shareholders on or about March 18, 2020. Termination of the Funds is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the liquidation.
    Prior to and through the close of trading on The NASDAQ Stock Market LLC (“NASDAQ”) on March 12, 2020, each Fund will undertake the process of closing down and liquidating its portfolio. This process may result in the Funds holding cash and securities that may not be consistent with their respective investment objectives and strategies. During this period, the Funds are likely to incur higher tracking error than is typical for the Funds. Furthermore, during the time between market open on March 13, 2020 and the Liquidation Date, because shares will not be traded on NASDAQ, there may not be a trading market for the Funds’ shares.
    Shareholders may sell shares of the Funds on NASDAQ until the market close on March 12, 2020 and may incur typical transaction fees from their broker-dealer. Shares held as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be automatically redeemed for cash at the current net asset value. Proceeds of the redemption will be paid through the broker-dealer with whom you hold shares of the Funds. Shareholders will generally recognize a capital gain or loss on the redemptions. The Funds may or may not, depending upon each Fund’s respective circumstances, pay one or more dividends or other distributions prior to or along with the redemption payments. Please consult your personal tax advisor about the potential tax consequences.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    stillers: And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
    It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.
    The above was your usual inaccurate agenda. I owned stocks constantly several years in the last 10 years. In the last 2 years and especially since retirement, I'm invested mostly in bond OEFs and I trade stocks/ETF/CEF several times annually. That fits perfectly with my goals which I exceeded easily
    I don't post most of my trades and holdings anymore.
    In the past, you said several times that
    1) I will never retire but I did
    2) I will never have enough but I already have more than 30 times our annual expense without drawing social security.
    and now you said, "So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains." I didn't claim that I used "sell trailing stop" it was just a generic post. There is no way for you to know if I owned stocks and how long.
    I can't find where you posted your holdings, their % and trades in the last 1-2 years. Your quote said "markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS" while you were holding a huge % in CD and bond OEFs for years

    @Gary1952 Of course there is a correction coming......................someday. There always is.
    No correction is needed unless you can find something wrong I said.
    My comment about sell trailing stop was a generic one that I used to do years ago. I do trade riskier funds short-term, usually days to 2 weeks.
    I suggest that you guys stay on topic and not rehash Morningstar posts, after all, this is MFO.
  • 3 Emerging Market Funds for Income
    https://www.morningstar.co.uk/uk/news/199233/3-emerging-market-funds-for-income.aspx
    3 Emerging Market Funds for Income
    Low or negative yields from developed world bonds are pushing income investors to move up the risk spectrum
    Neuberger Berman EM Debt Hard Currency
    JPM Emerging Markets Income
    TCW Funds Emerging Markets LC Income
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    @davfor, one of the reasons that I am 40 percent equity is that my advisor recommends only a 10 percent weighting to high yield and aggressive income ... .

    Sorry for ignorant question, but you who for years have listed vast and detailed holdings using many fund selections within a dozen 'sleeves', use an adviser??
    I missed that.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    A couple of days ago, John Rekenthaler had an article on Morningstar "Why not 100% equities?" This would be in comparison to the traditionally recommended 60/40 portfolio.
    He referenced a 25-year old article on the topic and talked about options and alternatives (including using leverage to really juice returns). The main criticism was: who could withstand the big downturns??!!
    Of course, if we think the market will generally go up over time, it makes sense to be "all in".
    My Dad lived to 98+ and his philosophy was to buy dividend-paying stocks and pretty much hold them forever. He was willing to ride out the downturns. Of course, he grew up in the Depression and was pretty frugal with his money -- the cost of living for Mom and Dad was pretty low (fitting -- his pension had no cost of living increases).
    A lot of him rubbed of on me, but I'm more adventurous. No bonds, but I like to hold some cash to take advantage of opportunities. I bought some AKRIX a few months ago, having learned about it on this board. My biggest holding is FSELX; #2 is SO (barbells?). Bought a little more SBUX recently.
    When markets keep going up -- every strategy looks like genius!
    David
  • China Funds Trounce Market, But Clients Are Still Leaving
    Article: "The country’s equity mutual funds returned 47% on average in 2019"
    The 2 ETF with the biggest AUM mad the following in 2019...MCHI 23.7%...FXI 14.9% but SPY made 31.2%
    That's funny. Maybe try not commenting on EVERY thread and topic.
    Pretty sure the article is referencing mutual funds traded on the Chinese exchange.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    @davfor, one of the reasons that I am 40 percent equity is that my advisor recommends only a 10 percent weighting to high yield and aggressive income and I'm at 20 percent. Thus, I reduced equity by 10 percent from their reccommended 50 percent based upon my risk tolerance. Thus far by using a spiff from time to time I have out performed my advisor's 50-50 model portfolio plus my portfolio has a higher yield. In addition, to the higher yield my out performance comes because my fund selection deviates from their list of reccommended funds contained in their model.
  • *
    Regarding DHEIX/DHEAX, I am not sure when it became a frequently discussed fund at M* or MFO. I first heard about it in 2018 from FD, who was talking about a couple of short term bond oefs, that could be a safe harbor in that turbulent market period. FD had mentioned both DHEAX and SEMIX as short term bond oefs, that were available to him at Schwab. When I moved my brokerage account from Fidelity to Schwab in early 2019, I took a close look at both DHEAX and SEMIX, but did not choose to invest in them at that time. Toward the end of 2019, when I was doing some end of year portfolio adjustments, I decided to put some money into DHEAX. I have been pleased with it so far, but I think there are a number of short term bond oefs in addition to DHEAX, that would be good choices for a conservative bond oef investor.
  • *
    "Gary1952">SDMZX appears somewhat unique. It is named a multi-purpose fund with low duration. I would say DBLSX and SDMZX are not directly comparable. DBLSX focus is on low duration.
    Gary, as I said in my comments above about these 2 Schwab recommendations, I consider PSHYX similar to DBLSX, but SDMZX is a longer duration bond oef. I would put SDMZX in a category more similar to FIJEX--more aggressive short term bond oefs. I have read a number of posts, in which SDMZX and FIJEX have similarities to some multisector bond oefs with their diversification in their holdings. If you want to pair a couple of short term bond oefs, that are different from each other, I would think a fund like SDMZX would be a good complement to a less risky fund like DHEAX and DBLSX.
  • *
    "Gary1952">I am at Schwab and all too often fail to research there. Thanks for the update. I will look into those funds. DBLSX is my oldest bond OEF holding. recently I have been thinking about selling some. But with 50% equities now I like the relative safety of DBLSX.
    Is Schwab selling DHEIX yet?
    Edit: PSHYX is Pioneer Short Term Income fund.
    Gary, thanks for the correction--I edited my post above. I had about 10 different short term bond oefs I had on a watchlist, and I accidentally referenced the fund as Putnam instead of Pioneer, when I was reviewing the information on them. Putnam also has a very good short term bond oef, but it was not one of the funds that Schwab had on its recommendation list.
  • How's your 401(k) doing-401(k)s hit records as workers sock away more, stocks jump
    “The average 401(k) balance rose 17% last year to $112,300 from the end of 2018, according to a review of 17.3 million accounts by Fidelity Investments. The average individual retirement account, or IRA, balance rose the same percentage to $115,400”.
    - Socking away more ? The balance increases reported don’t reflect that, since the S&P rose 31+% in 2019 (according to the article).
    - Are these numbers for only Fidelity’s clients? Or are they referencing data for the total of all U.S. retirement savers? If only Fidelity, numbers may not be representative.
    - Do the reported balances represent all retirement plans - or just those where the holder hasn’t yet retired? (Let’s hope it’s the former.)
    - I contended a while back (some other thread) that worker contributions tend to increase when markets are richly valued. Fidelity’s observations might support that.
  • *
    DHEAX has been discussed well back into 2019 at M*. Not sure if you are referring to MFO only.
    ================================
    Well, that's the thing about the internet...
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEAX was on 10/30/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&collapse_discussion=true
    According to this M* search, the first post about DHEIX was by yogi in a Barron's Summary on 04/29/2019:
    https://community.morningstar.com/t5/forums/searchpage/tab/message?q=dheix&noSynonym=false&page=2&collapse_discussion=true
    The majority of posts about them, here and there, have been in the last TWO months, yet posters like to celebrate them (and hundreds of other funds) as though they knew about them/owned them during the period they refer to them as the better/best.
    So what's your point again?
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    @Old_Skeet I turn 70 this month and am about 15 years into retirement having taken advantage of a downsizing "early out" opportunity in 2005. My stock weighting has varied between about 40% and 60% during that time.
    My portfolio percentages will probably be in the neighborhood of 55% stocks, 40% bonds and 5% Other after the new cash arrives. Most of that new cash will likely be used to increase existing positions in VWINX, WFLEX, IOFIX, ZEOIX, and SEMPX. (I'm thinking about adding to RPHYX too given its recently improving performance.) My tendency to overweight stocks (vs my current 50/50 default mix) may well persist until 10 year treasury rates move meaningfully higher...maybe into the 3 to 4% range will get my attention (of course something else may come to convince me to abandon my current overweight to stocks!). My present plan is to keep the default mix at 50/50 at least until I turn 80 unless my health status declines significantly.
    I have incorporated a sub-portfolio within my ongoing mutual fund portfolio over the past year and a half. Its settled out at 22.5% of the total portfolio (counting the new cash). Its 1/2 income oriented and 1/2 "income with growth" oriented and is populated with individual dividend paying stocks (3%+ dividends), REITS, CEFs, BDCs, and LPs. The individual holding sizes are bit sized enough that it could be used to engage in some "spiffing" although my current plan is to invest for income and long term capital gains.....Anyway, your comments and perspectives are appreciated.