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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Dividend Payers
    @Observant1, clicking on your link took me nowhere.
    I wonder if this might be the study that you were looking for LINK It comes from The Journal of Wealth Management.
  • Dividend Payers
    "One of the original studies on dividends in the early 1960s said people shouldn’t care.
    Maximizing wealth is the point, and dividends are just part of investors’ total return.
    Any cash a company pays out reduces its value by an equal amount."

    "Data from the past 50 years compiled by Ned Davis Research shows the annualized return of dividend payers
    in the S&P 500 was 9.2% compared with only 4.3% for non-payers, and with less choppiness too."

    "Dividend payers would have left you with 10 times as much wealth before taxes.
    Meanwhile, owning an equal amount of every stock in the S&P 500, including payers and non-payers,
    returned just 7.65%."

    May be paywalled.
    https://marketsam.cmail20.com/t/d-e-skuuhut-dhkydlthlk-r/
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    I don't usually post comments regarding The Week in Charts.
    Since the first half of the year has been "crazy", I'll make an exception today.
    What will the second half of the year bring for investors?
    Fourth worst S&P 500 performance through first 66 trading days (-15.3%) of 2025.
    Followed by tenth biggest 12-week S&P 500 total return (22.0%) from 1989-2025.
    Biggest 12-week $VIX decline (-64.0%) from 1990-2025.
    Frankly, I wasn't expecting this type of market behavior!
    Why is the market pricing in three Fed rate cuts in 2025?
    1) Stocks: all-time highs
    2) Home Prices: all-time highs
    3) Bitcoin: all-time highs
    4) Money Supply: all-time highs
    5) National Debt: all-time highs
    6) CPI: averaging 4% per year since 2020—double the Fed's "target"
    We'll get the non-farm payroll report this week but this isn't the jobs indicator to watch (subject to massive revisions). Better jobs indicator is 4-Week Moving Average of Continued Claims for Unemployment Insurance.
    Existing single family home inventory is at the highest level since June 2020.
    New single family homes for sale are at their highest levels since November 2007.
    Sellers outnumber buyers by nearly 500,000.
    Perhaps this is an inflection point which will lead to a lower pace of home price appreciation?
    Of course, affordability is still a major problem.
    Home price inflation has far outpaced wage increases for many years.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    FD1000,
    I didn't realize you were an auto racing enthusiast.
    I'm curious why the Yugo was your platform of choice.
    These cars were slow and often criticized for poor safety and reliability.
    Did you swap the engine and modify the suspension?
    Perhaps an LSx V8 similar to the one referenced in the article below?
    https://www.thedrive.com/news/18974/this-unassuming-yugo-has-an-lsx-v-8
    Never in my life have I owned a Yugo. I owned Japanese Hondas and Toyotas for decades but recently changed to Korean.
    Mona is one of these posters that can't accept my portfolio risk/reward success. It's all water under the bridge. All their grim forecasts turned out to be pretty wrong. Look who's laughing last.
    Thanks for asking. :-)
    ====================
    The chances I will ever buy an American or European vehicle are slim. If the Koreans would not be reliable because I have owned vehicles for 10 years, I would buy only Toyotas.
    Last week I changed my insurance and saved over 20% on (Home+Umbrella+Autos). This time I used a local independent broker with hundreds of 5-star ratings from Google, and he did it in 10 minutes.
    Replacing auto parts has been expensive for many years already.
    Inflation is a great excuse for many companies, including insurance companies, to raise prices even more.
  • Fidelity - Link External Bank Account
    Received following message via secure email today.
    Dear Observant1:
    Thank you for contacting Fidelity Investments regarding your Electronic Funds Transfer (EFT) form and documents. I am happy to help with this.
    I see that you submitted multiple emails, so for ease of communication I will be replying on this one email.
    I have submitted your documents to our processing team for review and to process. Please allow three to five business days for processing. The reference number for this request is: Wxxxxxx-30JUN25.
    When adding new bank information for Electronic Funds Transfers (EFTs), we send a prenote or test transaction to your bank in order to verify the accuracy of the information provided. This prenote takes four business days to complete before the feature is activated.
    As for your feedback, we require a handwritten ink signature for security and compliance reasons.
    It was a pleasure to assist you today, Observant1. I know you have many options when it comes to investing and I appreciate you choosing Fidelity. Have a nice day!
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    "Did you get a better rate than the ultrashort bond fund, by purchasing the 6-month T-Bills?
    They appear to be at 4.256% today.
    Are you trying to head off a future drop in shorter term instruments? "

    The 30-Day SEC Yield and TTM Yield for the ultrashort bond fund
    are a bit higher than the 4.256% rate for 26-week T-Bills.
    I executed this trade primarily to defer paying taxes for the corresponding sum.
    The only individual bonds that I've purchased have been Treasuries and I-Bonds¹.
    Thus far, Treasuries were bought "new" via auction and not in the secondary market.
    This is easy to do via Vanguard, Fidelity, or Schwab (probably other brokers as well).
    ¹ Non-institutional investors may encounter large bid/ask spreads when trading other types of bonds.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Observant1 Thanks.
    Did you get a better rate than the ultrashort bond fund, by purchasing the 6-month T-Bills? They appear to be at 4.256% today. Are you trying to head off a future drop in shorter term instruments?
    I have never bought individual bonds, except some rare forays into I-Bonds.
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (06/30/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:20 Topics
    01:14 The Market Makes Fools of the Soothsayers
    03:00 There Is No Impossible in Markets
    08:37 All-Time Highs Again
    10:20 3 Rate Cuts in 2025?
    14:45 The Most Important Jobs Indicator to Watch
    17:47 An Inflection Point in the Housing Market
    23:14 The Office Conversion Boom
    Video
    Blog
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Bought PIMIX last week on Friday. And again today at COB.
    Bought shares of an INTL index fund at COB on Friday - current equity now ~58%.
    Bought some PFN to add to an existing position, used proceeds of some preferred stock that I sold. Still sitting on a large amount of MMF and ultrashort bonds.
    Total cash equivalents now at ~27%. Bond CEF/OEF at 15%.
    This is very conservative for me historically. I aim to get to 60/15/25 short term.
    Watching inflation/rates/international equities.
  • A quarter billion just doesn't buy what it used to
    Reuters: 75% of IRA clean energy investments are in red states.
    The absurdity of what they're doing: it's the only "build manufacturing in the U.S." program that is doing anything directly to do so. That objective apparently means nothing to the mob boss and his minions.
    We were losing the race to China already; now we're wiping out the only opportunity we have to catch up.
  • Global Investors Have New Reason To Pull Back From U.S. Debt (on hiatus pending a surge of comity)
    The U.S. dollar index (USDX) is calculated by factoring in exchange rates for the euro (EUR), Japanese yen (JPY), Canadian dollar (CAD), British pound (GBP), Swedish krona (SEK), and Swiss franc (CHF).
    The dollar index declined more than 10% thus far in 2025 which is the worst start to the year since 1973
    when Bretton Woods ended. The tariff war, concerns about excessive debt (big, beautiful tax bill),
    and worries regarding the Federal Reserve's independence have weakened the dollar's appeal as a safe haven.
    Hopefully article isn't paywalled.
    https://www.ft.com/content/59c07f63-3331-462b-b9e3-d1bcaea69fce
  • Schwab to roll out broader overnight trading platform
    @hank, no but people could trade stocks with 5% margin equity then. Pump-&-dump probably comes from that era - buildup excitement to create a rush to buy, then pull the rug to wipeout overleveraged people.
    I see!
    FWIW - the Meb Faber interview with Rob Arnott and Campbell Harvey I linked in the “Where to Invest Now” thread gets into the issue of a massive increase in retail trading in recent years. Not necessarily critical - but they see it as one market mover along with index / passive investing.
    I’ve only recently (5 years) become aware of how easy & inexpensive it is to trade just about anything, as I was mostly with just a few good fund houses before moving to Fido. Fortunes can quickly be made or lost. Puts my $1 nightly wagers on a MLB game to shame.
  • A quarter billion just doesn't buy what it used to
    https://cnbc.com/2025/06/30/solar-stocks-fall-as-trump-bill-taxes-components-from-china.html
    “The latest Senate draft bill will destroy millions of jobs in America and cause immense strategic harm to our country,” Tesla CEO Elon Musk posted on X over the weekend. “Utterly insane and destructive. It gives handouts to industries of the past while severely damaging industries of the future.”
    What did this guy think would happen? That his money would buy influence? That only works with Middle East countries. He is surely a horrible judge of character. Who does such legislation impact the most? A lot of jobs in clean energy are in places like Texas and Florida. Interestingly, China has been moving more towards clean energy lately. And might end up eating our lunch in this arena, as we pivot to coal. Apparently, in a world hungry for renewables, we are opting to sit this one out.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2025/06/30/climate/china-clean-energy-power.html
  • Schwab to roll out broader overnight trading platform
    @hank, no but people could trade stocks with 5% margin equity then. Pump-&-dump probably comes from that era - buildup excitement to create a rush to buy, then pull the rug to wipeout overleveraged people.
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    My memory is that a Yugo was indeed propelled off the Mackinaw Bridge in ‘89 by wind after perhaps veering out of control. I happened to be on my way up to the cottage that night and northern Michigan winds, even on the mainland, were horrific. A 35 year old downstate lady died. But present day accounts dispute the role of wind in the accident. A local car audio shop where I’ve had work performed has a Yugo on display. As basic as you can get. Yes, it’s what I’d imagine someone as successful as FD to drive.. :)
  • The PCE(personal consumption expenditures) price index + Atlanta's Fed Q2 estimated GDP
    "Goldman Sachs wrote in a note earlier this month that the Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index reports suggest tariffs had “modest” effects on prices in May. The analysts expect the bulk of tariff-induced inflation to show up between June and August."
    "Kelly thinks it will take a bit longer, with the full effects of tariffs showing up in inflation data around September or October. 'The tariffs are being paid on the inventory coming in,' he says. 'That inventory is going to make its way into and out of the warehouses onto a truck, off to a wholesaler, and eventually to retail shelves.' On top of the time this takes, he says retailers also need to work through inventory imported pre-tariffs, which may not be marked up."
    "The effect, whenever it manifests, is likely to be significant. Bill Adams, chief economist at Comerica Bank, says he expects tariffs to add 0.75-1.00 percentage points to year-over-year inflation, with the PCE inflation rate peaking roughly by the end of 2025. Kelly puts the figure even higher at 0.9-1.5 points."
    “Bank of America, which expects core PCE inflation to have risen roughly in line with consensus estimates, wrote in a report: 'Overall, this would be a good number for the Fed, but it’s hard to take too much signal, given the uncertainty tariffs pose around the inflation path.'
    https://www.morningstar.com/economy/may-pce-report-forecast-still-just-tip-tariff-iceberg
  • Automobile Cost of Ownership
    It is not that we cannot do it, eventually. But, it will take time to get it all figured out on a much larger scale, and cost much, much more per unit. And while the cars may last 10-15 years, problems are inevitable as we try to do it all on home turf. Automotive service these days can get very pricey. And whatever we produce will, likely be uncompetitive in foreign markets, on price. Less units sold equals higher cost per unit.
    My guess is that Trump loses interest in a year or so, after a few questionable "deals", and calls it a day, basically moving on to other inanity. Some foreign automakers will increase output on U.S. soil. That is not a bad thing, to be fair.
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Just posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 27 June 2025.