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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • M* legacy Portf. Mngr gone, or just malfunctioning?
    I can't access M* Portfolio Manager.
    The 504 Gateway Timeout ERROR YBB mentioned previously is being generated.
    Edit/Add: Able to access after fourth attempt. Not confident service won't be interrupted again.
  • inflation truth
    Once again:
    "The best argument against democracy is a 5-minute conversation with the average voter." ---W. Churchill.
    Dem? Rep? No love lost from me, in either case. "All are punished." (Prince Escalus, Romeo & Juliet.)
  • M* legacy Portf. Mngr gone, or just malfunctioning?
    After a while, it had the following error message. Posted a note on M* Investor forum.
    504 Gateway Timeout ERROR
    The request could not be satisfied.
    We can't connect to the server for this app or website at this time. There might be too much traffic or a configuration error. Try again later, or contact the app or website owner.
    If you provide content to customers through CloudFront, you can find steps to troubleshoot and help prevent this error by reviewing the CloudFront documentation.
    Generated by cloudfront (CloudFront) HTTP3 Server
    Request ID: 0MY0704P9j9-fIviXlDUoKWxqP3XLCH_jjpDnZNQl3FGqdhbClYhFA==
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Even if you did not have HC funds / stocks, PRWCX alone gave you a material HC overweight.
    As of 10-31-2024, PRWCX held a 14.7% HC allocation within the fund. Healthcare has just over an 11% allocation within the S&P 500.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Nov 16th Episode:
    On the publication of its 75th anniversary edition, The Intelligent Investor Editor Jason Zweig shares the timeless & still timely wisdom of what Warren Buffett calls “the best book on investing ever written.”


    ACTION POINT
    READ THE NEW EDITION OF THE INTELLIGENT INVESTOR
    INVESTMENT CLASSIC
    Benjamin Graham’s principles, process, and mindset work
    Teachings followed by Warren Buffett and other great value investors
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    Hi @WABAC BaluBalu viewed the BOND page at 1:45 am, Saturday. I had placed a subject line note that the page was 'not ready for prime time' and that correct data would be loaded before noon today. He was commenting about one week 'OLD' data.
    Your data notes for PFF, etc. match my current numbers. This are correct to the best of our knowledge.
    And correct for MM's. I noted in 'bold' that MM's basis points in yield had a fairly large drop this past week.
    This is the M* page for FZDXX, which I don't review, but the 4.51% YTD, IMHO; appears to be a 'compounded' value based upon the recent yield(s) for this MM during the past several weeks.
    Gotta git for a bit.......
  • VGENX Vanguard Energy
    Yesterday, XLU (energy Utility companies) was one of the few "Green shoots" in the "Red Sea" of the Market.
    https://barchart.com/etfs-funds/quotes/XLU/overview
    Energy Sector and AI:
    utilities-backdoor-play-ai-trade
  • Bloomberg Real Yield
    15 Nov, 2024.

    Rate cuts? Unknowns re: Trump policies.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024

    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    FIRST: We're in a 'Never-Never Land' (events you never imagined) of potential large impacts upon various economic functions emanating from a central government in the coming months and years. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or fully understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
    W/E November 15 , 2024..... Bond investing and herding cats is challenging, going forward
    --- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'DOWN' for this week's pricing. Many bond sectors where 'every which way' for most of the week, with price recovery for a few sessions. Short and long duration bonds took turns with up and down pricing on various days. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the pricing this week, was erratic . The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 11 - November 15, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.45% yield. Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week. MM's yields were down LARGE at .11 - .15 basis points for the week.................
    --- AGG = -.85% / +1.45% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.08% / +5.23% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.06% / +3.28 % (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -.41% / +1.53% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -.93% / -.34% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -1.03% / +2.18% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.18% / +4.42% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.27% / +4.09% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -3.09% / -2.22 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -2.61% / -5.86% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -3.83% / -9.88% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -4.42% / -12.51% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +5.40% / +20.89% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -7.85 % / -29.77% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -.92% / +1.91% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- USFR = +.10% / +4.79% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
    --- LQD = -1.45% / +1.48% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- MBB = -.98% / +1.21% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.09% / +7.43% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.71% / +7.71 % (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.17%/+5.03% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = -.02% /+1.58% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -1.51%/+5.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -.22% / +10.68% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -2.12% / +9.99% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.45% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    @Anna - I remember 25 cent/gallon gasoline. Whew! Talk about the *wayback* machine.

    You rang? :)

    I have to chime in. I recall gas at 19 cents.
    There were “gas wars” in the 70s in the Detroit area - including outlying suburbs. All the various filling stations participated. I assume this went on elsewhere in the country as well. It was a trick filling up at just the right time after prices had fallen by 20-30 cents a gallon over a couple weeks. Prices would suddenly shoot back up overnight by the full amount they had fallen only to begin slowly falling again. 19-cents sounds about right (but for a day or two only). ISTM I saw 15 cents one time.
    For years we were told the world was running out of petro. Well intended? I don’t know. We now know the earth is filthy with carbon based fuels / petroleum. The trick of course is getting to it (can be miles under the ocean) as well as extracting it from deep underground.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    @Anna - I remember 25 cent/gallon gasoline. Whew! Talk about the *wayback* machine.

    You rang? :)
    I have to chime in. I recall gas at 19 cents.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    @Anna - I remember 25 cent/gallon gasoline. Whew! Talk about the *wayback* machine.
    You rang? :)
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    Yes. I think I own some Bitcoin through an etf “fund-of-etfs” (TRTY). It holds a couple momentum / trend following etfs - but those are a small part of its 16-17 etf stable. Best guess is bitcoin probably represents something like 0.05% of my portfolio. I’m “comfy” with that degree of exposure. I think a lot of markets have gone hyperbolic - and probably bitcoin among them. But I agree with Alan Greenspan who famously said it’s impossible to identify a bubble until after it has popped.
    Nothing against Bitcoin. Some pretty smart people own it. Not a big fan of Goldman. So I don’t put much stock in any calls they might make.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    CBRDX - CrossingBridge Responsible Credit Instl. Vary strange name. Are all the other CB funds Irresponsible Credit?!
    Any way, Thanks for sharing @WABAC. 60% dry powder? Good for you.
    BTW, SPX is back to where it was on Oct 15. IWM is still some 2% above. So, people have not entirely given up!
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    @Anna - I remember 25 cent/gallon gasoline. Whew! Talk about the *wayback* machine.
  • inflation truth
    Not to mention that prices rose everywhere in the world, not just in the USA. A small detail, but it didn't seem like anybody mentioned it during the election campaign.

    Dems never even tried to defend what has actually been a good record, considering the scorched-Earth opposition.
    oh, no, they did, just so unsuccessfully
    and much worse, they were preemptively countered over and over
    fighting lying and fraud is going to really take some figuring out going forward, if it can even be done
    I mean, ffs, forget plain-vanilla lying about inflation and neonate murder and migrant building takeover:
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/11/15/republican-ads-false-flag/
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    In the IRA: Redistributed some of the cash I have been sitting on to get me up to 50% bonds. To that end I went for actively managed etf's that had positive returns in 2022. So I now have equal-sized positions in VRIG, PULS, and JAAA.
    I did look hard at CBRDX, but decided to stay with the plan as described above.
    I still have cash to deploy on the equity side--where I am at 40%-- but I'm in no rush.
    Nothing shaking in the taxable but the leaves on the trees. I am looking for opportunities to buy.
  • Bitcoin ETF's. Thoughts?
    I have no bitcoin/crypto experience at all except for knowing that it has been incredibly volatile and speculative throughout its history. Yet I'm intrigued by the following article about upcoming momentum fueled by government support for bitcoin as an asset class. The only investment vehicles I'm aware of for bitcoin are the etf's GBTC and IBIT as well as other etf's listed in the article below. Trump seems to want to make the USA the bitcoin capital of the world. If he keeps his word (a big if) then might bitcoin become an asset class and therefore even more investable? Elon Musk holds a large amount of bitcoin.
    I welcome thoughts and opinions about bitcoin. Thanks in advance for any and all comments!
    Goldman Sachs Expands Bitcoin ETF Holdings To $710 Million
    BENZINGA
    Nov-15-2024 10:11 a.m. ET
    Goldman Sachs (GS) has dramatically increased its exposure to Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC) ETFs, according to its latest 13F filing with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), reflecting growing institutional interest in digital assets.
    What Happened: The Wall Street powerhouse disclosed $710 million invested across multiple Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) for the quarter ending September 30. A 13F filing is a quarterly report required by the SEC for institutional investors managing over $100 million in assets.
    Major Holdings in BlackRock's Bitcoin Trust
    The filing highlights Goldman Sachs’ significant stake in BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust , with 12.7 million shares valued at $461 million.
    This marks an 83% increase from its August holdings of 6.9 million shares, then valued at $281 million, and solidifies Goldman's position as the second-largest holder of IBIT, trailing only Millennium Management, which leads with $844 million in holdings.
    Diversifying Bitcoin ETF Investments
    Goldman also boosted its positions in other prominent Bitcoin ETFs. Notable increases include:
    Fidelity's Wise Origin Bitcoin ETF : 1.7 million shares worth $95.5 million, a 13% rise.
    Grayscale Bitcoin Trust (OTC:GBTC): 1.4 million shares valued at $71.8 million, a 116% increase.
    Bitwise Bitcoin ETF (BITB) : 650,961 shares worth $22.5 million, marking a 156% rise.
    The bank also reported smaller stakes in Bitcoin ETFs offered by Invesco Galaxy, WisdomTree and ARK 21Shares.
    Institutional Confidence In A Booming Market
    Goldman's expanded investments coincide with record inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs. BlackRock's IBIT recently surpassed the iShares Gold ETF (IAU) in net assets, an impressive milestone considering IBIT's launch occurred just this January.
    The rising momentum aligns with broader market optimism for a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the incoming Trump administration, which has pledged support for crypto mining and a national Bitcoin reserve.
    Goldman's aggressive moves into Bitcoin ETFs underscore the shifting landscape for digital assets, signaling increasing institutional adoption of cryptocurrency as a mainstream asset class.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I believe Trump watches stock market pretty carefully (one can never be sure, Trump has no fixed core, he has no issues flipping 5 times on a position in 5 minutes) and uses that as a measuring stick for success.
    Imo 60% China tariff is a bluff to get China to the bargaining table. Trump has used these kind of outrageous bluffs throughout his career. If indeed he goes with it AND stock market tanks, there will be a quick reversal of policy or some middle ground compromise.
    All speculation of course, forget his inner circle, not even Trump himself knows what his position will be in in the next 5 mins. So I pay no attention to whatever his "inner circle" is stating. Lighthizer is a tool as is everybody else around him.
  • Don’t Let Politics Interfere with Your Investing
    So, do I need an etf made up of US Enterprises that construct and maintain pipelines, reserve storage tanks, and other things that provide capicity to accomodate the flow problems associated with oversupplies or will the rest of the world save their supplies for tomorrow and just use our cheap supplies until they are gone? I guess I should, after more than 40 years, just sell my little bit of Chevron before gasoline falls to 25 cents again. ( As a teen I could take my mom's car, go places other than I said, and refill the tank for a quarter a gallon before going home.)