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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • How's your 401(k) doing-401(k)s hit records as workers sock away more, stocks jump
    https://www.yahoo.com/news/401-k-hit-records-workers-112754438.html
    NEW YORK (AP) — How's your 401(k) doing?
    President Donald Trump likes to ask that question around the country, sometimes throwing out big gains like 90% or 95%. The average 401(k) did indeed hit a record last year, although its growth was considerably less than that.
    The average 401(k) balance rose 17% last year to $112,300 from the end of 2018, according to a review of 17.3 million accounts by Fidelity Investments. The average individual retirement account, or IRA, balance rose the same percentage to $115,400
  • *
    @Gary1952, I believe Diamond Hill funds have a transfer fee at Schwab. One reason I don't consider them.
  • *
    Correction (as long as the above analysis is correct) : DHEAX WAS the better fund.
    The daily obsession with some posters (especially one) looking back at prior performance and deeming a given fund as the better/best is mind-numbing.
    Had a poster, THREE YEARS AGO, stated that DHEAX will perform better than another similar fund over the next three years, and it did, now that would be something.
    But truth be told, the first post about DHEIX/DHEAX that I EVER SAW on on ANY board by posters who now hail it as the better/best over the last three years was made within the last TWO months.
    The last TWO months.
    ----------------------------------
    To wit...
    This MFO search history for DHEAX shows for that VintageFreak and willmatt72 posted about it in April-June 2019.
    ALL other posts about it, including by those who hail it NOW as the better/best, were made between Dec 2019 and today.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/search?Search=dheax
    This MFO search history for DHEIX shows for that willmatt72 posted about it in Feb 2018.
    ALL other posts about it, including by those who hail it NOW as the better/best, were made between Dec 2019 and today.
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/search?Search=dheix
  • *
    DHEAX beats DBLSX for 1 month and all the way to 3 years (chart).
    DHEAX has also better Sharpe + Sortino (PortVis)
    Both funds invest at high % in securitized/MBS, both have mostly IG(investment grade) bond rating.
    Just my opinion: DHEAX is a better fund
  • Indexing foreign funds
    Right there with you Starchild. It and GLFOX are the only ones I own at a 9:1 ratio.
  • *
    Schwab recommendations for Short Term Bond oefs are interesting. We are familiar with frequently discussed short term bond oefs like DBLSX and DHEIX, but neither of those funds made the Schwab recommendation list. The 2 short term bond oefs that Schwab recommends is:
    1. SDMZX, a short term bond oef from PGIM. This fund has a BBB portfolio rating, has a M* risk of above average, has a standard deviation of 1.15, a duration of 3.5 and expense ratio of .39%. Its portfolio has 36.4% in securitized holdings, 20.25% in corporate holdings, 19.4% in government holdings, and about 14.5% in derivatives, and about 9% in cash and equivalents. Its 1and 3 year total return of 6.47%/3.85%.
    2. PSHYX, a short term bond oef from Pioneer. This fund has a BBB portfolio, has a M* risk of low, has a standard deviation of .79, and a duration of 1.76, and an expense ratio of .46%. Its portfolio has 62% in securitized holdings, 29% in corporate holdings, 6% in government holdings, and 3% in cash and equivalents. Its 1and 3 year total return of 4.87/2.81.
    Comments: It appears PSHYX is very low risk and has some similarities to DBLSX. SDMZX is a higher risk short term bond oef, but is well diversified with a low standard deviation, but its total return appears to be related to its longer duration holdings of 3.5, which is much longer than most funds in this category. SDMZX has a higher than average yield distribution, which makes it more attractive for dividend harvesters. For me personally, SDMZX is a very interesting option in this category. I sold DBLSX at the end of 2019 because I wanted a little better total return, and so I replaced it with DHEAX. I do think SDMZX provides that better total return and looks like a nice complement to DHEAX.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    I never understood the cash thing when markets are going up?
    For your cash portion....why not use a simple liquid index like SPY/QQQ with a close % for sell trailing stop.
    In the last 3 months, the SPY made over 9% and QQQ over 15% and their price never lost more than 3.5% from any last top...
    ==================================
    And I never understood your "All bonds all the time/bond OEF momentum" investment strategy when markets have gone up FOR 10 YEARS.
    It should be noted that you posted on M* that you sold all of your stocks near/at EOY 2019, you have not reported any stock buys since then, staying 100% in bond OEFs. So despite you reporting that data, you have not participated in any of the 2020 YTD stock market gains.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    Since I retired about five years years ago I dialed my risk down by holding less equity and more fixed income. I have averaged a little better than a seven percent annual return since I retired. By holding cash I can put a special investment position into play during a stock market pullback. Generally, I have in the past made five to seven percent off of my spiffs sometimes more. So, for me, I await a better buying opportunity before opening an equity spiff position.
    I'm also fully invested within the confines of my asset allocation of 20 percent cash, 40 percent income and 40 percent equity. At times I can overweight equities by up to 5 percent if felt warranted.
    Thus, for me I have found it beneficial to hold a little extra cash to make some special buys from time to time during stock market pullbacks. Buy the dip then sell the rip and pocket the margin.
    @FD1000 ... Sounds like we might be in the same hymn book but on a different page.
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    I never understood the cash thing when markets are going up?
    For your cash portion....why not use a simple liquid index like SPY/QQQ with a close % for sell trailing stop.
    In the last 3 months, the SPY made over 9% and QQQ over 15% and their price never lost more than 3.5% from any last top...(chart)
  • Longtime bull (Ed Yardini) says he’s sitting on cash ahead of a possible market correction
    Thanks for these comments. I anticipate receiving repayment in full of an outstanding real estate secured loan (about 30% LTV) within about 30 days. I have allowed the % of stock holdings in my primary investment account to drift up in anticipation of this influx of new cash. It will represent about 10% of the total in this account once it is received. Looking at my current investment plan, about 20% of it will go into stocks with the balance into bonds (including into increases to my "near cash" ZEOIX, SEMRX, SHV, and JPST holdings). I will wind up with perhaps 53% in stocks. That's still on the high side of my long term 50% target....mostly due to the current stance of the global central bank crowd and persistently low interest rates. The details remain a work in progress, especially regarding how much volatility to take on with the bond side investments. So, reading these comments is helpful.
  • China Funds Trounce Market, But Clients Are Still Leaving
    Article: "The country’s equity mutual funds returned 47% on average in 2019"
    The 2 ETF with the biggest AUM mad the following in 2019...MCHI 23.7%...FXI 14.9% but SPY made 31.2%
  • China Funds Trounce Market, But Clients Are Still Leaving
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/china-funds-trounce-market-clients-210000727.html
    China Funds Trounce Market, But Clients Are Still Leaving
    (Bloomberg) -- A bumper year for stock pickers in China has come with a warning for active managers everywhere: even market-trouncing gains aren’t always enough to keep clients happy.
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    I understand that Ajit Jain and Greg Abel have been managing part of the portfolio in BRK for last several year. Most likely one of them will assume Buffett's position.
    https://observer.com/2019/02/warren-buffett-berkshire-hathaway-succession-plan-shareholder-letter/
    Agree with @LewisBraham that Buffett has too much cash and few buying opportunities. I believe either Jain or Abel helped Warren to buy Apple and sell IBM. Value investing has been trailing large tech stocks for some time.
  • Vanguard Research Finds Financial Advice Improves Portfolio Diversification For 9 in 10 Investors
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/vanguard-research-finds-financial-advice-145000852.html
    Vanguard Research Finds Financial Advice Improves Portfolio Diversification For 9 in 10 Investors
    PR NewswireFebruary 11, 2020, 8:50 AM CST
    VALLEY FORGE, Pa., Feb. 11, 2020 /PRNewswire/ -- In a new Vanguard white paper, The value of advice: Improving portfolio diversification, researchers Cynthia Pagliaro and Steve Utkus demonstrate the material impact of financial advice on the construction of individual investors' portfolios. Analyzing the asset allocations of more than 44,000 Vanguard self-directed investors who adopted Vanguard Personal Advisor Services, the researchers found the implementation of advice improved portfolio construction for nearly 90% of the investors by addressing equity risk-taking, increasing international exposures, and reducing cash holdings.
  • Indexing foreign funds
    SWISX, Schwab’s developped markets index fund, is good. You get a lot of Japan and no EM, so there is a bias built in. I prefer to use global funds for large cap international and hit the EM and S/Mid in separate funds. Maybe international will out perform one of these years, but the wait has been long. If you had put money into VEU 10 years ago, you’d have made a bit more than 5% per annum for your pain.
  • Why So Many Mutual Funds Can’t Beat the Indexes
    Another recyclable article among hundreds/thousands. Remember, media options are huge and why you find scary titles without proofs. The goal is for you to go to their site and by visiting the site the author/company gets paid.
    When stocks go down 5+% you will see the crash is coming soon, valuations are too high. Stocks go up, valuations are too high and a crash may come soon.
    Every several weeks...the following 10 funds have beaten the index...or what should you buy now...SS will be out of money...value will beat growth soon...EM will beat US stocks...Then recycle again.
    Basically, I think that over 95% of the articles are useless.
  • Harry Dent’s Dismal Record
    Never heard of the guy.
    I read predictions. But I don't follow them since Jeanne Dixon died. ;-)
    I do like to buy things cheap. I am at about 13% cash in the IRA, and 30% in the taxable.
  • Indexing foreign funds
    Dodge and Cox International (DODFX) is a value oriented fund. So the two strategies are different to begin with. I don't know if there are any value-oriented indexes for the international developed market.
    I don't care to go with international indexes because they don't account for national and regional issues. I'm thinking about stability, demographic trends, shareholder rights, corporate governance, rule of law, and so on. I'ld rather have someone keeping an eye on that for me.
    And I don't care to own ETF's, which I understand to be derivatives designed for trading. Avoiding indexes, and ETF's, is one of the ways left to be a contrary investor.
    M* lumps VEA and FMIJX into the international large blend category, while Lipper puts VEA in multi-cap core and FMIJX into multi-cap growth. FMIJX does not limit itself to developed markets. So they don't exactly swim in the same pool. But that's not important to me.
    Using mfopremium I can compare the two funds over the nine years that FMIJX has been in existence. Its APR is 8.2 to 4.9 for VEA. Maximum draw-down over that time period was 13.7 for FMIJX to 23.3 for VEA. And all of the usual risk factors favor FMIJX.
  • Harry Dent’s Dismal Record
    Why stop there the following were wrong too 1. Gundlach forecasted 6% for 10 year treasury by next year 2. Bogle was wrong about SPY performances 3. Arnott missed so many forecasts 4. GMO was way wrong. 5. PE + PE 10 + inverted yield are off for months and years 6.for years many experts have said that EM and SC will outperform LC but they didn't
  • Warren had a tough year — how might explain it?
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/59ccfc55-7b15-31eb-8c79-a21d60181513/warren-buffett-had-a-tough.html
    Warren had a tough year
    CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Last year may have been one of Warren Buffett’s worst years ever.
    We won’t know for sure until Berkshire Hathaway BRK.A, +0.26% BRK.B, +0.20%, of which Buffett is chairman and CEO, releases its earnings Feb. 22, at which point we will learn how much the company’s net asset value grew last year. The company’s stock gained only 10.9% in 2019, 20.6 percentage points lower than the S&P 500’s SPX, +0.51% total return. Reached by me Feb. 10, Berkshire wouldn’t comment or confirm when the shareholder letter would be released.