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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Money Market Funds or Bond Funds?
    RSIIX fell in March 2020 because it was a black swan, even RPHIX with much lower volatility fell. Investing based on a black swan is a bad idea long term.
    When rates are not stable, especially when they go up/down more stable funds are recommended such as RPHIX, CBUDX, CBLDX, RSIIX, DHEAX,OSTIX.
    RPHIX is the closest to a MM, the next step is CBUDX and the rest.
    I'm invested at 99+% in 2 very low SD bond funds + high yield + good performance in 2023 and YTD.
  • How would you invest $100,000 right now?
    @dtconroe, thanks for the compliment. Wish it were true but it’s not. If I were to believe that I would become full of myself and that has doomed many a trader. All the good traders I knew had particular traits and one was humility. So I try to adhere to that.
    You do a great job staying in your lane. I realize many like you are camped out in money market funds, CDs, and Treasuries and I see absolutely nothing wrong with that. The returns there this year for many not only pay the bills but for some have added to their nest eggs,
    @yogibearbull, yes, three negative years in a row for Treasuries is unheard of. Where go Treasuries goes impacts so many bond categories. So trying to figure out the direction of Treasuries short term (an almost impossible task) is always on my mind. Last year rising short term and long term rates negatively impacted everything in Bondland. That hasn’t been the case in 2023” Just look at the performance of bond funds such as HOBIX, DHEAX, BDKAX, to name just a very few. Even junk corporates have more than hung in there especially @Crash favorite TUHYX and one of my favorites CSOAX.
    Edit. The good traders are the ones who can adeptly trade stocks. While I have more than successfully daytraded stock index futures, equity mutual funds in days gone by and bond funds, my particular trading style doesn’t work for individual stocks. In other words, I can’t trade stocks. I realize my limitations there. It is a risk tolerance thing. Any successful trader or investor needs to find their particular niche and stocks aren’t my niche, That has always frustrated me because many of the thrust indicators I monitor have been spot on calling major bottoms over the past many years.
  • Tough Day in Bond Land
    PMZIX -6 cents
    DODIX -11 cents
    CLMAX -6 cents
    PIMIX -4 cents
    OSTIX -7 cents
    PDIIX -7 cents
    MWIGX -7 cents
    MWFEX -5 cents
    BHK -12 cents
    DMO -29 cents
    Better ...
    RCTIX -1 cent
    CBLDX -1 cent
    DLDFX -2 cents
    SEMMX -1 cent
    ICMUX -1 cent
    ZEOIX -3 cents
    DHEAX -2 cents
    RHHIX -1 cent
    But, look here:
    IOFIX even
    DPFNX even
    BDKAX even
  • Short Term Bonds and/or Short Duration High Yield
    Terminology becomes a confusing issue in these kind of threads. "Short Term Bonds" is a category of M* and permeates search functions at various brokerage houses for competing funds in that category. Short Duration/Limited Duration is often a descriptive term, in titles of various funds, and can often apply to almost any category in which duration is being emphasized. Even the term High Yield can be confusing, often describing credit status references of junk bonds, but occasionally describing the amount of yield within any category of funds. In my cash alternative account, used as an alternative to bank accounts, I often use DHEAX (from the M* category of short term bonds), but it is predominantly a securitized asset fund that is very risky for the category, but I relate to it more as a nontraditional bond oef, with short duration. I often use RPHIX/RPHYX, which M* categorizes as a High Yield bond fund, but with very short duration--one of the least volatile and smooth performing funds I own and I consider it a good alternative to the category of Short Term Bond funds which generally offers too little yield with higher investment grade bonds. (RPHIX/RPHYX has restricted/limited access) Another fund I often use for alternatives for bank accounts, is FPFIX, a short duration low risk from the nontraditional category. I prefer FPFIX over its more well known cousin, FPNIX, which is a very good and low risk short term bond category fund. (note FPNIX is in a limited access status).
    With all of that said, I also use a lot of short duration bond oefs in my more risky IRA holdings, that mostly have junkier credit ratings, but often in more of a "trade" role. In 2021 I have use IOFIX, SEMMX, several FL/BR funds, etc. which often provides higher yield and higher total return. In the multisector bond category, even venerable funds like PIMIX are very short duration, along with it's PIMCO relative PEGIX. At any rate, terminology can often be confusing, so the OP may want to more specifically define what he is looking for, and what role he wants those funds to fill in his portfolio.
  • Only green today
    All equity holdings crushed today. But IOFIX and PMZIX held steady. DHEAX up 1 cent. JLS also up nicely. Otherwise, sea of red.
  • Tactical Plays for rest of 2021 and near term
    I find very little that I am comfortable with, at present, for a long term buy and hold investment. As a result, I have become more of a reluctant trader, focusing on bond oef categories that are doing well overall, that I think will last at least 3 months, and hopefully longer. I have been using several nontraditional bond oefs for trades--some more risky than others. Recently, I have chosen to open up positions in FR/BL bond oefs, as inflationary issues seem to be growing in frequency. FR/BL do well when interest rates stay flat, or increase, and over the past year FR/BL have been doing well. Nonagency mortgages were outstanding fund choices for much of the last decade, but they can be risky and many of them did not do well in the black swan crash in March 2020, but starting in April of 2020, they have been outstanding rebound investments, and now are settling back into a performance pattern, resembling the last decade--as a result I use funds like SEMMX as a short term aggressive trade choice, but don't trust it for too large of a position. I have short term trade positions in HY Munis, but in general I do not find HY Munis as a category I can trust for long term--when it comes to the fall, around September/October, HY Munis often get clobbered because of seasonal pressures. With HY Munis, I got clobbered early after the March 2020 crash, and so I limit how much I will put into this category, and ususally with a time limited criteria in mind. For my more conservative taxable account, I will use a fund like RPHIX because of its long term performance record, in good and bad markets, but do not use it as a trade vehicle because of fees--RPHIX/RPHYX is scheduled to close to new investors, but apparently stay open to current investors. Another fund I use in my taxable account is the very aggressive short term bond oef, DHEAX. I sold it during the March crash, but bought it back later in 2020, and have held it since. It is risky, and the DHEAX management will not permit frequent trading, so when I own it, I plan on holding it for at least 3 to 6 months--but I will sell it after that time period if market conditions merit that.
  • Why do you still own Bond Funds?
    hank: "I hope that better quality, longer duration bonds continue to suck air. Because if they begin to perform well in a meaningful way it means that other, riskier, markets (including junk bonds) are in a heap of trouble."
    Depends on what kind of investor you are. Equity oriented investors, tend to only think of bonds as "ballast" instruments, focusing on treasuries and investment grade options. Bond oriented investors, are aware that there are a wide variety of bond oefs, that perform differently in different environments. Funds like PIMIX and DBLTX were birthed in the ashes of the 2008 crash, purchased nonagency mortgages that were out of favor, and over the following decade of equity bull market performance, those junky bond oefs became hugely popular, replacing CDs for income flow, and making great total return, without the volatility of equities.
    I am not a great trader, but I have found that bond oefs move slowly enough that I can establish sell points for bond oefs, and easily switch to other bond oefs, in other categories, and still make a nice, lower stress, total return result. I did that in March 2020, when I sold my junkier bond oefs (with a small loss after hitting my sell point criteria), replaced them with some safe harbor bond oefs like GIBLX and BIMIX, and then when those junky bond oefs were once again performing well, I was able to switch back into funds like DHEAX and SEMMX, and make a nice total return. I am beyond my youthful days of heavy equity oriented investing, but have found my bond oef stage in retirement, provides a very nice total return result, allowing me to preserve what I have accumulated, and still grow the principal each year, even with the required RMD harvesting.
    I am 73 years old, in retirement, with no company pensions to provide me a safety net. My preservation of principal objectives, with modest total return, fits my current investing objectives and needs. I am quite content making 4% to 6% annual total return, with minimal volatility and stress, using bond oefs.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    wxman123,
    PIMIX is still a good fund but when I owned it I like the way it was. Since PIMIX is so huge the managers had to compromise and own more HY + EM + lower the distributions and still behind. PIMIX ranked at 78 in category in 2019 and 52 in 2020. The best risk/reward in bond land was in securitized. I'm never concerned about outperformance, it's what I do.
    JAVSX is a small fund where the managers can be flexible and use their best ideas.
    The question as is always what investor you are, goals and style. You need to do your own due diligence to suit your needs
    ==================
    dtconroe,
    I am willing to revisit usage of funds like VCFIX/VCFAX as a fund that was considered one of the safer, less riisky funds, prior to the crash, especially when you look at its relatively smooth performance track since the crash. When a reputable brokerage, like Schwab, is willing to put it on its Select fund list, I tend to give that fund more "benefit of the doubt" than funds like IOFIX, DHEAX, and SEMPX, which had terrible crash performance
    If you look at 3 years prior to the crash and compare VCFIX,IOFIX,SEMMX,PIMIX (link) you see the following:
    1) SEMMX+IOFIX had the best risk/reward with Sharpe+Sortino.
    2) SEMMX had good performance annually over 5% with very low SD=0.9.
    3) IOFIX had double the performance with reasonable SD=2.6
    4) VCFIX had good risk/reward and beat PIMIX
    March 2020 changed is all.
    I don't invest based on crashes just as I didn't after 2008. There are investors who see danger while I see an opportunity (chart).
    But I understand what you do and it suits your style.
    HOBIX is another fund with good risk/reward since March 2020 see (chart).
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    The March crash has "complicated" SD, as a selection factor. Most of the M* Risk ratings are based on 3 and 5 year SD factors, and you have to look at the March crash impact on these risk ratings. There are all kinds of factors that impacted poor/better March crash performance, including liquidity issues and use of derivatives, for each fund. Many are under the impression that poor performance can simply be correlated with credit risk issues, but you see many funds with lower credit ratings that did better in the March crash than investment grade bond oefs. It is hard to generalize about why each fund did poorly or better in the March crash. I am willing to revisit usage of funds like VCFIX/VCFAX as a fund that was considered one of the safer, less riisky funds, prior to the crash, especially when you look at its relatively smooth performance track since the crash. When a reputable brokerage, like Schwab, is willing to put it on its Select fund list, I tend to give that fund more "benefit of the doubt" than funds like IOFIX, DHEAX, and SEMPX, which had terrible crash performance. Bond oefs like BASIX, have been around for awhile, run by a very respected company, and has achieved a M* Gold star rating, with rather glowing recommendations in the M* Fund Analyst considerations. Each investor has to develop their own criteria for fund selection, and have to decide if their selection is a simple "trade" choice, or is it selected because it has longer term holding potential. I don't recommend funds very often anymore, but I find myself having to deeper due diligence, post crash, in funds I am willing to put on watchlists and worthy of "consideration" as a fund for my portfolio.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    image

    Observations for one month as of 10/30/2020:

    October was not a good month for stocks and most bonds (Interest rates were up). High rated bonds were down for 1 and 3 months. The best bond categories have been Multi+Non Trad.
    Multi: 0.1% for the month but securitized shined again(IOFIX,DHEAX). HOBIX with 1%.
    Uncontrain/Nontrad: +0.2 for the month. Securitized(JASVX) did better at 0.8%
    HY Munis: (-0.3) for the month but BSNIX(new fund from Baird) has done better all year.
    High Rated Bonds: (-0.3%) for the month. The index BND -0.56%
    Bank loans: Flat but EIFAX +0.3%.
    HY+EM: HY 0.25 and EM= +0.1 for the month and this time no correlation to stocks.
    Corp: -0.2% for the month. PIGIX -0.5%.
    SP500(SPY) Down month at -2.5, YTD=2.9%.
    PCI CEF (-5.1%) for the month. YTD still at -18.1%
    My own portfolio
    I started the month with IOFIX+JASVX (both securitized) + NHMAX(HY Muni). Early in the month sold NHMAX and bought HOBIX. It’s pretty obvious that funds loaded with securitized bonds are doing well. HOBIX continues to have good performance for 1-3 months. It was another good month for me, even last week I made 0.1%.
    In the last week of October I sold most of my portfolio for the third time this year. When VIX goes above 30-35 and both stocks+most bonds categories are going down it’s a good sign for me to sell. Since I retired in 2018 I don’t see any reason to be invested when markets crash. I can be out until markets look better. Sure, sometimes it’s just a false alarm but I rather be out. It works well with my trading style and not recommended for anybody else.

    Diversification
    didn’t help you much in October. SPY down -2.5%, FSPSX(International index) -4%, BND -0.56%
  • MetWest Flexible Income Fund - MWFEX, MWFSX
    It was yielding over 20%. Of course it’s going to go down. Even if it went down by half it would yielding about 10%. As AUM increases, yield will fall. This is happening as expected. It’s also actively managed by Tad Rivelle. They may be trimming their risk. Cash looks to be building.
    In the last 4 days it looked like the following
    As of Date Ticker Dividend Rate
    7/23/2020 MWFSX 0.001582083
    7/22/2020 MWFSX 0.001426187
    7/21/2020 MWFSX 0.001684689
    7/20/2020 MWFSX 0.001714354
    If we use 0.0015 daily we get about 4.5% annually.
    It is one of the worse performer for one month and 3 months in my list
    Ticker..1 Mo...3 Months
    MIAYX 3.03 9.85
    AIHAX 2.62 2.95
    JIPAX 2.6 7.57
    ADVNX 2.56 4.91
    BMSAX 2.43 8.44
    JSTIX 2.41 6.35
    PDIIX 2.32 7.89
    PLSFX 2.28 9.09
    FCDDX 2.25 8.12
    STISX 2.23 8.2
    JMUTX 2.22 9.38
    ASIGX 2.17 6.79
    PUCZX 2.1 8.67
    FADMX 1.97 7.98
    MXIIX 1.73 5.63
    JMSIX 1.66 9.01
    HSNYX 1.64 10.57
    PTIAX 1.61 4.95
    IOFIX 1.54 16.42
    SEMMX 1.34 10.66
    PIMIX 1.3 6.31
    TSIIX 1.27 7.29
    EIXIX 1.09 8.01
    DHEAX 1.08 8.04
    VCFAX 0.88 7.78
    MWFSX 0.84 4.06
    RCTIX 0.43 4.45
  • "Core" bond fund holdings
    I like a fund like VCORX as a fairly tame intermediate core bond fund without reaching for yield. Reaching for yield in this market does not seem to be a very good idea, unless you are prepared for volatility and/or loss of principal. Look no further than a "short-term" bond fund like DHEAX for that result.
  • Semper MBS Total Return Fund In Doghouse
    go back to the old saying, know what you own!!
    a few months back, many on these discussions boards were touting DHEAX, Diamond Hill short duration...just looking at their returns and SD etc all looked good but if you took the time to look at their holdings you would have seen they were investing in bonds like a holding in Kabbage...an online funding for small businesses with "quick decisions"...what could possibly go wrong there? Now they stopped loaning monies just when the small business need them the most and are "helping" small business' get bail outs from the gubmint...Whiskey Tango Foxtrot!
    Reminds me when a year ago or so when I was working in a large bldg in downtown CHI town, I told a few of the fellas in the gym at lunch, ya know, if half of the companies in this bldg went belly up, I don't know that society would miss them...they make no money, are just funded on an idea and cheap monies...very concerning.
    I will also state...look for experience in your fund managers...just like when getting on an airplane or a physician...not to bad to see a little grey hair...folks who have been to a few rodeos...not a bad idea to invest in funds that are run by experienced folks but also have some younger turks learning the ropes and injecting fresh thinking and ideas....
    Baseball Fan
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    I think right now Munis would be my highest bond conviction asset and why I'm invested in them in at a very high %. There was a lot of carnage but the Fed is supporting treasuries and Munis.
    I don't want to be in treasuries which relate to rates
    Don't want HY which correlates to stocks.
    Corp bonds are going up too but harder to figure out because they go from junk to high-rated but...are high-rated bonds really high when the company is in trouble.
    Munis may be OK no matter what rates or stocks are doing. The Muni ETF and funds are exploding up for several days.
    MBS/securitized is untouchable such as VCFAX,SEMMX,IOFIX,even DHEAX lost a lot
    Multi can be another option if you don't know what to do.
    PIMIX looks OK but PDIIX rebound is better + AUM is smaller + much more diversified
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Glad I sold BDKAX months ago and ANGLX DPFNX and PMZAX a week or ago. Still hold DHEAX and SEMRX because of Schwab short-term transaction fee, but at this rate may have to sell those as well.
  • IOFIX - I guess it works until it doesn't
    The securitized saga isn't over. VCFAX -3.1...SEMMX -2.95...ANGLX -1.4...DHEAX -2.25. DHEAX is even more unique with 80+% in IG rating bonds. VCFAX is about 50/50 IG/below IG. Slowly but surely they are going down.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    ANGLX joined the party of "LOW SD SECURITIZED" category when it lost -3.6% today.   From the high(or pretty close to it) on March 4th, SEMMX lost 16+%...ANGLX 14+%...VCFAX close to 14%....IOFIX over 42%...DPFNX 19%...DHEAX 8.5...PMZIX 17%...BDKAX over 60%

    The SAGA of securitized isn't over yet
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    At Schwab, you enter the trade and before the "PLACE ORDER" it will tell you
    DHEIX isn't available - only to institutions.
    DHEAX-free to buy, min $2500, 90 days early redemption fee at $49.95
    JMISX (Inst share)-it's free to buy(unique, not at Fidelity), $100 min, 90 days early fee at $49.95
    JMUTX-free to buy, min $2500, 90 days early redemption fee at $49.95
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Lots of stuff today to cover
    Multi- PTIAX at 0% was fantastic. VCFAX at -0.3% and IOFIX at -0.4 was not bad when SEMMX was down -0.46. JMUTX+JMSIX -1.3% was another proof why securitized is the best. Second-tier PUCZX at -2.9% and PIMIX is still missing, I guess they are afraid to show the results. PDIIX lost -2.4%. The Pimco guys are not doing well at all.
    HY Muni lost about -0.5 to -0.7 but OPTAX just at -0.37
    Bank loans - fell sharply. EIFAX -3.1 and SPFLX -2.35
    HY lost even more at least at -3% to -4%
    "Cash sub" - DHEAX confirmed itself as a great choice for performance and stability with just -0.1
    Cose plus - PINCX -0.13...BCOIX -0.4....DODIX -1%(as expected)...USIBX -0.45...BND -0.2...FIJEX -0.95
    ==========
    Rates were down dramatically but higher rated bonds(even the index BND) didn't go up. I see it as a problem. The markets are crazy, volatile and without a direction. I did nicely YTD and will start buying when markets tell me what to do.
    I sold my 3 funds (huge % in PINCX, smaller % in BCOIX and a small % in IOFIX...I bought PINCX+BCOIX earlier last week) and now at 99% cash. I lost today -0.22% which was a surprise because I thought I will make money.
  • Bond mutual funds analysis act 2 !!
    Last week was a good test for your bond funds.
    Multi-SEMMX,IOFIX,EIXIX,VCFAX,PTIAX,JMUTX,JMSIX. PTIAX(1.1%) continues its momentum which tells me they own higher rates bonds than the rest. JMSIX(0.5%) had a nice week too. IOFIX (0.40%) continues to be the best securitized.
    "Cash sub"- DHEAX (0.2%) proved why high IG bonds is important. SEMMX surprisingly lost -0.1.
    Bank loans - lost too much and the category is at -2.1% for YTD and similar to HY performance which has a much higher duration.
    HY Muni-all the ones I follow lost but GHYAX -1%(bigger loss)...OPTAX only -0.3 and even ST duration NVHAX -0.5%.
    For core plus: PINCX 1.8%...BCOIX 1.5%....DODIX only 0.8%...UBISX 1.15%...PTTRX 1.6%
    But we also learned last week that funds with low SD for 3 years didn't perform that well exactly when you needed them...IISIX -0.2%...JMUTX -0.2%...PIMIX -0.3%...SSTHX -0.3% While much "riskier" IOFIX with SD = 2.7 performed extremely well YTD=3.2% and one week=0.4%