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This highlights again the point that one is comparing a potentially higher returning investment against the certainty of a 4% rate of return. Each has its merits.Locking up your money in that contemplated mortgage payoff strikes me as similar to purchasing an AAA rated bond earning 4% (compounded monthly) over the remaining years on the mortgage. (A partial pay down would reduce the duration by X number of years.) And 4% compounded is a very nice rate on AAA debt by today’s standards. So as a defensive strategy to protect / hedge against a severe portfolio loss it makes sense.
Well they are off to strong start this year! Not that forecasters are always correct, but as a class munis are being forecast to do well this year. I read an article about the pool of available bonds is shrinking.I thought I would mention one other fund that was barely above my risk criteria--SNTIX. This fund had a standard deviation of 2.07, credit quality of BBB, duration of 5.10, and at total return of 1yr/3yr of 8.17/5.53. It is another investment grade intermediate bond oef. Of the funds I mentioned before, NVHAX is a very tempting fund. My issue is simply that regardless of what the Feds do with interest rates, all of the HY Muni funds recorded record 1 year returns in 2019, and it seems that this category is most likely going to revert to its average in a year following record highs. Momentum investors don't care because they will just ride this high performing period until it cools off and then sell, but if you intend to hold a fund for another year, after a record high year, you have to wonder if valuations are being stretched and vulnerability to factors other than interest rates can negatively impact performance.
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