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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at
    Some here might remember Acampora as a frequent panelist on Louis Rukeyser’s old show. Ralph was a bit of an eccentric even than, a technocratic maverick often divergent from the consensus adrift in his charts.
    How Ralph Acampora Painted a 70-Foot Chart of the Dow on His Barn - WSJ Story
    Photo of Acampora painting his barn
    image
  • Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
    Isn't something a miss in this paragraph ?
    {Among the popular self-adjusting Lifecycle funds the L-income’s — with the smallest percentage of stocks and largest investment in treasury securities and bonds — return was 7.60% last year. The L-2030 fund return was 17.60% and the L-2050 returned 23.33% in 2018.
    I believe 2018 should read 2019.
    Derf
  • Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at
    Hi @Mark
    “Yah” ! That Jan. 4, 2018 comment:
    --- Jan. 18 - Feb. 6 found a -11.83% for SP-500
    --- The high point on Jan. 18 wasn't recovered until July 25
    --- Then, a -10% during the month of October.
    --- THEN, from Dec. 13 - Dec. 24, a -13%
    Sometimes, enough fun to cause one to want to wear "Depends" all of the time; regardless of age or need.
    Aside from the above:
    Heck, I continue to debate when to quite playing with all of the money as our portfolios remain a close mirror of FBALX. Not a bad benchmark; but........
    'Course, then one tries to convince that little character on top of one's shoulder; OH, just a little bit, okay? So, let's try 90% into FBALX and 10% to break a full court press. :)
    Tough being an investment junkie, eh ???
    Take care,
    Catch
  • Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at
    Just be aware that on January 4, 2018 he said this:
    "“I am so bullish I have to sit down and calm down,” the director of technical research for Altaira Capital Partners said in an interview with “Closing Bell.”".
    All I'm saying is that you should have an investment plan in place before reacting to either of these statements otherwise you're just guessing/gambling.
    Ralph Acampora: I am so bullish I have to sit down and calm down
  • *
    "Gary1952">I opted for NVHAX over BTMIX when I bought on 1-2-2020. The allocation to NVHAX was in my taxable account with money for future (most likely 2 years down the road) monthly expenses. I like the stronger performance over BTMIX. The short duration downturn recovered quickly in 2017 but I will watch NVHAX closely and switch to BTMIX or possibly AAHMX if I see the need to change. I am not a trader so holding on thru a downturn is similar to holding equities in a correction. Thanks for the update.
    Gary, best wishes on your decision. Comparing a HY Short Duration Muni fund with a BB credit rating, to an Investment Grade Short Term Muni fund with a A credit rating, is all about risk and return and having your eyes wide open. NVHAX has been a good fund but it is much more risky than BTMIX--in downmarkets, and outside of seasonally strong periods,Muni bond oef risks need to be appreciated.
  • *
    I opted for NVHAX over BTMIX when I bought on 1-2-2020. The allocation to NVHAX was in my taxable account with money for future (most likely 2 years down the road) monthly expenses. I like the stronger performance over BTMIX. The short duration downturn recovered quickly in 2017 but I will watch NVHAX closely and switch to BTMIX or possibly AAHMX if I see the need to change. I am not a trader so holding on thru a downturn is similar to holding equities in a correction. Thanks for the update.
  • *
    This post is about some of the more conservative Muni bond oefs. Interest rate and credit risk can impact the various categories, but if you are interested in Munis, here are a few funds for you to consider, with standard deviation below 2 and durations below 5.
    1. BTMIX: Investment grade short term muni bond oef with SD 1.13, Credit Quality A, Duration 2.37, 1yr/3yr total return of 4.24/2.91
    2. AAHMX: Short Duration HY Muni bond oef with SD 1.28, Credit Quality BB, Duration 2.80, 1yr/3yr total return of 5.40/3.63
    3. PDSZX/PDSAX: Investment Grade Muni bond oef with SD 1.61, Credit Quality BBB, Duration 3.72, 1yr/3yr total return of 6.61/4.35
    4. NVHAX: Short Duration HY Muni bond oef with SD 1.66, Credit Quality BB, Duration 3.78, 1yr/3yr total return of 8.59/6.66
    5. GSMIX: Investment Grade Muni bond oef with SD 1.95, Credit Quality BBB, Duration 4.43, 1yr/3yr total return of 8.39/5.50
    Comments: Muni oef bonds tend to be impacted by seasonal factors and we are just completing one of the strongest performing seasonal periods of January when Munis performed very well. But you may also want to consider peak to trough performance in a very tough 2016 market--BTMIX was strong and basically had no significant drop, but NVHAX had a peak to trough loss of 5.53% in a 3 month period, GSMIX had a 4.82% peak to trough drop in 3 month period, SDHAX had a peak to trough drop of 4.54% in a 3 month period, PDSZX had a peak to trough drop of 4.3% in a 3 month period, and AAHMX had a peak to trough drop of 2.7% in a 3 month period. Munis are not risk free and you can lose money in them, so consider how much risk you are willing to take after a very strong 2019.
  • Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at
    https://www.yahoo.com/finance/m/079ad811-d3e8-3f82-8046-7036a2f542f5/‘godfather’-of-technical.html
    Godfather’ of technical analysis says stock-market downturn is going to get worse: ‘I am looking at a 10% drop maybe a little bit more
    10%drop corrections sx head-!?!!
  • Benjamin Graham's Timeless Advice
    https://finance.yahoo.com/news/benjamin-grahams-timeless-advice-195157715.html
    Benjamin Graham's Timeless Advice
    Benjamin Graham had all the traits of a great investor--brains, curiosity and discipline. An immigrant to New York, his family was plunged into poverty when his father died. But Ben was a smart kid. He learned to read six languages in high school and went on to attend Columbia University, where he became a Greek scholar and, on graduation, received offers to teach from three disparate departments: mathematics, philosophy and English. Instead, he chose Wall Street, eventually teaching at Columbia's business school, where Warren Buffett was among his students.
  • Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
    https://federalnewsnetwork.com/mike-causey-federal-report/2020/01/even-in-hot-stock-market-tsp-investors-love-super-cool-g-fund/
    Even in hot stock market TSP investors love super-cool G fund
    Despite 20-30-plus-percent returns for the TSP’s C, S and I stock index funds last year, a slight majority of federal workers investing for retirement have most of their optional retirement nest egg money in the super-safe, Treasury securities G fund.
    The C fund, which tracks the S&P 500 index, returned 31.45% in 2019. The small cap S fund return was 27.97% and the international stock index I fund was up 27.97%. The F fund (bonds) return was 8.68% while the popular G fund returned 2.24% in calendar 2019.
    As of Dec. 31, 2019, the TSP total value was $632.6 billion.
  • Know These 3 Facts to Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income to the IRS - January 30, 2020
    Zacks is just recycling its pablum. It's not all nonsense, but it has a fair share of misstatements, errors, and opinion masquerading as facts.
    Its last NASDAQ contribution, dated Jan 14, was also linked to in a post
    https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/54970/retirees-should-know-these-3-facts-about-required-minimum-distributions-january-14-2020
    Compare and contrast with the excerpt above:
    Retirees Should Know These 3 Facts About Required Minimum Distributions - January 14, 2020
    Failing to withdraw a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your own or an inherited IRA by the deadline results in a big tax code penalty: 50%. That's right. If you were supposed to take out a minimum of $4,000 and (oops!) did not do so, you have the privilege of writing the IRS a check for $2,000. It's important to remember that the rules related to RMDs changed on January 1, 2020.
  • Know These 3 Facts to Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income to the IRS - January 30, 2020
    https://www.nasdaq.com/articles/know-these-3-facts-to-avoid-paying-half-your-retirement-income-to-the-irs-january-30-2020
    Know These 3 Facts to Avoid Paying Half Your Retirement Income to the IRS - January 30, 2020
    If you do not make a required minimum distribution (RMD) from your own or an inherited IRA by the specified deadline, the IRS could hit you with a big penalty - 50%! For example, if you were required to withdraw a minimum of $4,000 and you did not, you would be obliged to pay $2,000. Plus, beginning January 1, 2020, the rules concerning RMDs were updated.
  • More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
    (From John’s link) “In a recent survey, Schroders Investment Management questioned 1,004 men and women aged 45 to over 70 about retirement planning. ... Some 55% of respondents admitted they didn't know how their assets were allocated.”
    This might explain that: Vanguard: More than half of DC participants investing solely in target-date funds Story
    Makes sense to me that if someone who is not financially inclined defaults to their 401-K (or other employee plan’s) target date fund they would not be able to explain the “ins & outs“ of how that fund invests. Seems to me those funds are designed for precisely that kind of individual.
    It would be nice if they all became fund junkies like most of us here - but that is not the reality. I don’t think any amount of citizenry education is likely to alter that. However, as one moves from contribution years to distribution years it’s likely their interest in financial matters grows. Experience on this forum testifies to that subtle transition,
  • More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
    More Than Half of Retirement Savers Don't Know This
    /You might be missing the very information you need to succeed in retirement.
    Catherine Brock
    Running a marathon without training is a bad idea. Same goes for betting your last $100 on lucky 17 at the roulette table, or trying to save for a comfortable retirement when you know little about investing. The odds of coming out ahead all around are pretty low./
    https://www.fool.com/investing/2020/01/29/more-than-half-of-retirement-savers-dont-know-this.aspx
    •••I do believe most or more than 95% of regular MFOers know about diversification distributions and reimbursements issues regarding investments firms /investments related issues
  • Emerging markets ETFs sink into red for the year
    https://seekingalpha.com/news/3536491-emerging-markets-etfs-sink-red-for-year
    Emerging markets ETFs sink into red for the year
    Seeking Alpha
    Emerging market indices are more or less proxies for China, so they've had a rough run the past few sessions thanks to coronavirus worry.
    Chinese names make up five of the top ten holdings in the iShares Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:EEM), and a Taiwanese name (Taiwan Semi) makes for a sixth. The EEM is off 2.4% today and now about 5% for the year.
    The Vanguard FTSE Emerging Markets ETF (NYSEARCA:VWO) might be even a hair more weighted to China. It's off 2.25% today and also about 5% for the year.
  • Seth Klarman Calls for a Comeback From Value Stocks
    It's an interesting situation. Just my personal opinion, but I equate value stocks with the old economy (20th Century) and growth stocks with the new economy (21st Century). And from my point of view I don't see value making a comeback and achieving parity with growth anytime soon - if at all. That's why I don't own any value funds, apart from one dividend growth fund (which is a core fund in reality).
  • Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund to close to new investors on 2/28/2020
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/277751/000119312520018227/d870665d497.htm
    497 1 d870665d497.htm JANUS HENDERSON SMALL CAP VALUE FUND
    Janus Investment Fund
    Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund
    Supplement dated January 29, 2020
    to Currently Effective Prospectuses
    Effective at the close of business on February 28, 2020 the following is added to the Shareholder’s Guide (or Shareholder’s Manual if you hold Class D Shares) of the Prospectuses following the “Redemptions” section.
    CLOSED FUND POLICIES – JANUS HENDERSON SMALL CAP VALUE FUND
    The Fund has limited sales of its shares because Janus Capital and the Trustees believe continued sales are not in the best interests of the Fund. Sales to new investors have generally been discontinued; however, investors who meet certain criteria described below may be able to purchase shares of the Fund. You may be required to demonstrate eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before your investment is accepted. If you are a current Fund shareholder and close an existing Fund account, you may not be able to make additional investments in the Fund unless you meet one of the specified criteria. The Fund may resume sales of its shares at some future date, but it has no present intention to do so. Investors who meet the following criteria may be able to invest in the Fund: (i) existing shareholders invested in the Fund are permitted to continue to purchase shares through their existing Fund accounts (and, for shareholders of Class D Shares, by opening new Fund accounts) and to reinvest any dividends or capital gains distributions in such accounts, absent highly unusual circumstances; (ii) registered investment advisers (“RIAs”) may continue to invest in the Fund through an existing omnibus account at a financial institution and/or intermediary on behalf of existing or new clients; (iii) under certain circumstances, all or a portion of the shares held in a closed Fund account may be reallocated to a different form of ownership; this may include, but is not limited to, mandatory retirement distributions, legal proceedings, estate settlements, and the gifting of Fund shares; (iv) employer-sponsored retirement plans that are offered through existing retirement platforms which held a position in the Fund as of the date of the Fund’s closure, as well as employees of JHG and any of its subsidiaries covered under the JHG retirement plan; (v) Janus Capital encourages its employees to own shares of the Janus Henderson funds, and as such, employees of Janus Capital and its affiliates may open new accounts in the closed Fund; Trustees of the Janus Henderson funds and directors of JHG may also open new accounts in the closed Fund; (vi) Janus Capital “fund of funds,” which is a fund that primarily invests in other Janus Henderson mutual funds, may invest in the Fund; (vii) accounts maintained by a financial intermediary that invest pursuant to Janus Henderson proprietary model strategies; (viii); certain institutional investors approved by Janus Henderson Distributors, including but not limited to, corporations, certain retirement plans, public plans, and foundations and endowments; (ix) certain accounts maintained by a self-clearing financial intermediary for which investment decisions are determined by such financial intermediary’s home office recommended list and/or pursuant to such home office’s model portfolios (approved and/or research-covered fund lists are not included within this exception); and (x) in the case of certain mergers or reorganizations, retirement plans may be able to add the closed Fund as an investment option. Such mergers, reorganizations, acquisitions, or other business combinations are those in which one or more companies involved in such transaction currently offers the Fund as an investment option, and any company that as a result of such transaction becomes affiliated with the company currently offering the Fund (as a parent company, subsidiary, sister company, or otherwise). Such companies may request to add the Fund as an investment option under its retirement plan. Requests for new accounts into a closed Fund will be reviewed by management and may be permitted on an individual basis, taking into consideration whether the addition to the Fund is believed to negatively impact existing Fund shareholders.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
    _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
    Janus Investment Fund
    Janus Henderson Small Cap Value Fund
    Supplement dated January 29, 2020
    to Currently Effective Statement of Additional Information
    Effective at the close of business on February 28, 2020 the following is added to the Shares of the Trust section under “Closed Fund Policies” of the Fund’s SAI:
    CLOSED FUND POLICIES – JANUS HENDERSON SMALL CAP VALUE FUND
    The Fund has limited sales of its shares because Janus Capital and the Trustees believe continued sales are not in the best interests of the Fund. Sales to new investors have generally been discontinued; however, investors who meet certain criteria described below may be able to purchase shares of the Fund. You may be required to demonstrate eligibility to purchase shares of the Fund before your investment is accepted. If you are a current Fund shareholder and close an existing Fund account, you may not be able to make additional investments in the Fund unless you meet one of the specified criteria. The Fund may resume sales of its shares at some future date, but it has no present intention to do so.
    Investors who meet the following criteria may be able to invest in the Fund: (i) existing shareholders invested in the Fund are permitted to continue to purchase shares through their existing Fund accounts (and, for shareholders of Class D Shares, by opening new Fund accounts) and to reinvest any dividends or capital gains distributions in such accounts, absent highly unusual circumstances; (ii) registered investment advisers (“RIAs”) may continue to invest in the Fund through an existing omnibus account at a financial institution and/or intermediary on behalf of existing or new clients; (iii) under certain circumstances, all or a portion of the shares held in a closed Fund account may be reallocated to a different form of ownership; this may include, but is not limited to, mandatory retirement distributions, legal proceedings, estate settlements, and the gifting of Fund shares; (iv) employer-sponsored retirement plans that are offered through existing retirement platforms which held a position in the Fund as of the date of the Fund’s closure, as well as employees of JHG and any of its subsidiaries covered under the JHG retirement plan; (v) Janus Capital encourages its employees to own shares of the Janus Henderson funds, and as such, employees of Janus Capital and its affiliates may open new accounts in the closed Fund; Trustees of the Janus Henderson funds and directors of JHG may also open new accounts in the closed Fund; (vi) Janus Capital “fund of funds,” which is a fund that primarily invests in other Janus Henderson mutual funds, may invest in the Fund; (vii) accounts maintained by a financial intermediary that invest pursuant to Janus Henderson proprietary model strategies; (viii); certain institutional investors approved by Janus Henderson Distributors, including but not limited to, corporations, certain retirement plans, public plans, and foundations and endowments; (ix) certain accounts maintained by a self-clearing financial intermediary for which investment decisions are determined by such financial intermediary’s home office recommended list and/or pursuant to such home office’s model portfolios (approved and/or research-covered fund lists are not included within this exception); and (x) in the case of certain mergers or reorganizations, retirement plans may be able to add the closed Fund as an investment option. Such mergers, reorganizations, acquisitions, or other business combinations are those in which one or more companies involved in such transaction currently offers the Fund as an investment option, and any company that as a result of such transaction becomes affiliated with the company currently offering the Fund (as a parent company, subsidiary, sister company, or otherwise). Such companies may request to add the Fund as an investment option under its retirement plan. Requests for new accounts into a closed Fund will be reviewed by management and may be permitted on an individual basis, taking into consideration whether the addition to the Fund is believed to negatively impact existing Fund shareholders.