https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/27/deep-inside-economy-more-sticker-prices-start-to-go-up-due-to-tariffs.html
This seems most appropriate posted right here.
-The latest inflation data came in hotter than expected, and Nike warned in its earnings on Thursday that prices will be going higher due to tariffs.
-Across the U.S. retail and manufacturing distribution chains, inventory has started to be re-ticketed with higher prices, by between 8%-15%, according to ITS Logistics, including for apparel and consumer product goods.
-The footwear industry says it expects prices to rise by between 6% and 10%.
Does not appear to be the time to fan the flames of inflation with lower rates. Imagine what happens when Donald gets his wish for full control of the FED.

It IS hard to do nothing. Or, at least, be patient enough to find the correct moment to act. I plan to increase my equity allocation by 4% and think I will choose INTL equities to meet that goal. I also want to reallocate some cash (another 4%) to Pimco OEF/CEF.
I want to move from 56% equity to 60% equity. And 16% FI to 20% FI. My cash equivalents will then be approximately 20% of my total portfolio.
I guess it is time to start DCAing. I placed a buy order for an INTL index fund (large cap core) and another for PIMIX, both in my 401K. This should increase both allocations by 1%.

Very little details were released no both sides, and that is concerning…

Matthew Axelrod, former head of export enforcement at the U.S. Department of Commerce's Bureau of Industry and Security, now a partner at Gibson Dunn, said: "Today's announcement has both upside and downside. It's positive that the Chinese have agreed to relax their restrictions on rare-earth minerals, but the fact that the U.S. government used export controls—which are key to U.S. national security interests—to strike this deal sets a concerning precedent."

https://msn.com/en-us/money/markets/china-issues-update-after-trump-reveals-trade-deal/ar-AA1HwDlF?ocid=hpmsn&cvid=7803e7e537584d69bba2b98a231b6b7b&ei=15

Re: tariffs and trade:: China.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/27/china-us-agree-details-of-london-trade-framework-trade-agreement-beijing.html

And yet, the 12 month return on SPY is 33rd on my watch list of ~95 US equity funds.
At the moment, the top five are VVOIX, BSCRX, CGDV, WTV, and AICFX. I have to go back ten years to get it up to 14th.

For one thing, significant limitations on advanced microchips to the Middle East have been eased. The ME has AI and bitcoin aspirations.
My take on the oil situation was that OPEC had increased production to head off our domestic industry from increasing production, by holding down prices. Basically beating Trump to the punch, after he broadcast his desire for a U.S. production increase.
On the topic of inflation, we just got a new PCE number:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/27/pce-inflation-report-may-2025-.html
"Core inflation rate rose to 2.7% in May, more than expected, Fed’s preferred gauge shows"
"Along with the inflation numbers, consumer spending and income showed further signs of weakening. Spending fell 0.1% for the month, compared with the estimate for an increase of 0.1%. Personal income declined 0.4%, against the forecast for a gain of 0.3%."

But, I am open to learning. So, let's hear exactly which policies caused this inflation relief and the mechanism behind it? Explain the causation. Was it taxing all imports at historic levels? That would suggest demand destruction. In that case, look out below. 1Q GDP was -0.5%. Maybe we are on to something here.

The only thing he did was talk his buddies the Saudi's into producing more oil (twice) which he thought would bring down price as oil is an outsized price factor of almost all goods when you figure in transportation etc... I still think he's supplying them with something they really want. LIV support or arms technology? It did come down about $10 since the beginning of the year but yet gas prices are about $0.20 higher than the beginning of the year. Go figure....

@Old_Joe: "How the hell did we get to garbage cans?"
Perhaps because (IMHO) Vanguard is going to the dumps? [ I am not enthralled with their continuing policy changes. ]
But back to the current thread: A 96 gallon totter is rather large. Are these collections weekly/bi-weekly/monthly?
A couple of times a year I can generate a considerable quantity of yard waste, e.g. 300 gal., but on a recurring monthly basis, I doubt I'd hit 10. And it goes into double 4x4x4 bins in the back yard. As for recyclables, my 96 gallon totter is good for ~6 weeks. Trash: a 5 gallon bag once a week.
Are we (spouse & myself) just extremely 'efficient' ???

Closed only 3 points below its February ‘25 all-time high on Thursday. Futures looking good.

At first blush it looks like it's better not to contribute to a deductible IRA, but rather to keep retirement savings in a taxable account. It seems better to pay the lower cap gains tax on the taxable account than the higher ordinary income tax on T-IRA withdrawals. But because initial contributions are deductible, the arithmetic doesn't work out that way.
Disregarding T-IRAs, one could use Roths. Contributing to Roths instead of keeping one's retirement savings in taxable accounts seems like an obvious win. Income in Roths is taxed at 0%; income in taxable accounts is taxed at 15% or more.
That is, unless one qualifies for 0% tax on cap gains. One way to do that is to have relatively low taxable income to take advantage of the 0% cap gains tax bracket. Another is to never sell but to bequeath appreciated assets to heirs.

My two international equity funds have been my best performers, by far, in 2025.
The YTD returns for my small blend and large blend funds are 16.44% and 15.04% respectively.
I don't know if international equity funds will continue to outperform U.S. equity funds.
It's important to note that the U.S. outperformed international for a very long time (until recently)
and performance between these two asset classes tends to revert to the mean.

This also covers my thinking. I have steadfastly avoided INTL funds for a decade or more, and profited from that. But, reversion to mean (by force/tariff/boycott) may be the ticket the days. I console myself by remembering how eschewing INTL this long has worked out, while kicking myself for not jumping on this trend months ago.

TBLD is trading at a 6.23% discount to NAV compared to its 52-week average discount of near 10%. It’s less than 5 years old. Close to 70% in equities. The 30% in bonds is mostly junk (BB / lower / unrated). To its credit it managed to lose only around 17% in 2022. Not bad considering the damage incurred by both equities and bonds that year.
Agree the ER is high for a fund not leveraged (and incurring interest expenses on borrowings). I’ll forgive a high ER on a CEF if it has a very long term record of success and is attractively discounted / priced. But this one doesn’t have those attributes. In defense of the ER, the fund does have more than 50% of its assets invested outside the United States which adds additional expense.

You can see almost anything you want to see in the day-to-day numbers.
How about S&P Closes 3 Points Shy of All Time High?

No complaints, since I'm already invested. :)

Despite Panamanian turmoil lately, BLX is climbing back. A very good couple of days, though I think it stinks, the way that workers down there are getting screwed via Presidential decree. By coincidence, I also landed upon another LatAm bank: FBP. And I'm still holding ET. I just won't EVER sell that puppy.
But together, they are just 17.74% of my total. As Leonard Cohen wrote in "Suzanne," I prefer to look "amid the garbage and the flowers." I don't like a crowded trade. My mutual fund managers are doing that already with United Health and the MAAG7 and the other trendy and beautiful, newest s**t. So, when I go shopping for a single stock, other points on the compass are more attractive to me. A lower than average multiple is important. I discovered Stock Rover, and it's extremely useful, in my opinion--- even the FREE version. More useful these days than Morningstar, if you're trying to dig and examine beyond the surface.
Where to invest now? My rules include a low P/E. And at least a 3% dividend, preferably with a payout ratio that doesn't serve to shoot yourself in the foot; it needs to be sustainable. I got out of BHB last year at a good spot, though I hung onto it for a bit too long. I hear tell that BHB is buying another smallish New England banking outfit. That will be a big expense, and so I'll stay away. CMTV out of Derby, Vermont at the Canadian border is still a fantasy for me. Right now, it's at the high end of its 52-week share price range. Even so, the div. yield is 4.8% and that's not shabby.
International? OK. Just wanna make sure that taxes are not preemptively stolen from the dividend, as was the case with Norsk Hydro. I sold it.

You can see almost anything you want to see in the day-to-day numbers.
How about ”S&P Closes 3 Points Shy of All Time High” … ?

Schwab's Liz Ann Sonders' recent article asks the question:
"Complation"…Is there too much complacency regarding inflation?
"The rub is that much of the economic data outside of direct inflation readings suggest higher inflation ahead. Both key purchasing managers indexes (PMIs)—the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) and S&P Global—show that output prices have jumped to levels akin to the early part of the pandemic. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) survey is also showing that a higher-than-average number of small businesses are raising prices, or plan to. Many high-profile larger companies have announced price increases as well—including Walmart, Macy's, Proctor & Gamble, Ford, Subaru, Volvo, Volkswagen, Mitsubishi, Mattel, Adidas, Ralph Lauren, Stanley Black & Decker, Best Buy, Microsoft, and Nintendo."
"What's also notable is the still-wide gap between the discretionary ("wants") and non-discretionary ("needs") components of the CPI. As shown below, although there has been some convergence between the two, needs' prices are running at about twice the level of wants' prices; disproportionately hurting lower-income consumers."
https://www.schwab.com/learn/story/whats-going-onwith-inflation

I wonder how many companies are opting to slowly boil that frog, by quietly and incrementally raising prices, without actually saying anything. To draw no attention to themselves.
Cherry-picked stats by the OP are not to be taken seriously. Best to be used as a springboard to highlight the total inanity of the circumstances. And an opportunity to set the record straight. A chart of the S&P for the past 2 1/2 years tells an interesting story. 25% back-to-back gains until a wall was hit. That wall was Trump's policies. as soon as he backed off, the market responded positively, still only up 3-4% YTD, instead of 10-15% the trend was implying we should have.
The market wants to surge and he won't let it. He wants loose FED policy, tantamount to stimulus, to cover for his trade/tariff failures. If his policies were working, they would not need artificial help. Mr Market would be running with it.
There is zero historical evidence that even aggressive FED policy calms inflation in months. What we are witnessing is the results of more than two years of FED policy decisions. And someone trying to steal credit for that, while attacking the architect. Biden had two years of the highest FED fund rates in decades and wasn't whining about the hand he was dealt. Instead we had +50% cumulative S&P gains.
The only thing different, and holding the market back, is current trade policy and all the underlying chaos in the disjointed messaging. This guy was handed a roaring economy and is squandering it. Many of the business leaders who supported him are now distancing themselves and hoping for relief.

We are supposed to believe that some magical administration policies brought down inflation in mere months, without specifying which policies actually did this. It's a hoot.
Hell, if he can do that, he doesn't need the FED to lower rates. He can just apply more magic sauce. Show us how it works. The laughable part of all this, is that the same quarters that said Powell lowered rates too soon last year, now are begging for more rate cuts. Pick a lane.
But, I am open to learning. So, let's hear exactly which policies caused this inflation relief and the mechanism behind it? Explain the causation. Was it taxing all imports at historic levels? That would suggest demand destruction. In that case, look out below. 1Q GDP was -0.5%. Maybe we are on to something here.

My two international equity funds have been my best performers, by far, in 2025.
The YTD returns for my small blend and large blend funds are 16.44% and 15.04% respectively.
I don't know if international equity funds will continue to outperform U.S. equity funds.
It's important to note that the U.S. outperformed international for a very long time (until recently)
and performance between these two asset classes tends to revert to the mean.

TBLD has an expense ratio of 1.59% and it is not leveraged. Not acceptable.

is referred to as "Socialism". A textbook example to follow:
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/26/trump-golden-share-us-steel-nippon-merger.html
-U.S. Steel’s amended charter gives Trump sweeping powers over major business decisions while he is in office.
-The “golden share” will then be held by the Treasury and Commerce Departments after Trump’s term is over, according to a SEC filing.
-Trump will have veto power over some production and wage decisions.