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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • VWINX
    M* starts looking at DHHIX as of 12/4/14. MFO Premium starts its Life evaluation of DHHIX as of 01/16.
  • VWINX
    What's the point of the experiment? This mixes figures over spans of five years (annualized returns) and three years (Sharpe ratio); this mixes daily volatility (max drawdown day-to-day) with monthly volatility (Sharpe ratio based on monthly returns). Numerically one can do this; the question is why?
    VSCGX 3 year Sharpe ratio of 0.69% is barely ¾ that of VWINX. What does "similar" mean? VGCIX has only been around since mid-November, 2018. So with this fund you're comparing a Sharpe ratio over (at most) 20 months with VWINX's 36 month Sharpe ratio.
    This "experiment" is fuzzy with some criteria and rigid with others ("I want to eliminate any fund with greater than -17.43% Max Drawdown"). This rigid requirement eliminates DHHIX, which has a max drawdown of -17.91% Other than that (and the same Sharpe ratio issue as with VSCGX), DHIIX looks like a good pick.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    @rforno, I too notice the change in the top holdings of VMVFX since the management change in 2019 - Alibaba is not low volatility stock. Sold part of it last year and will unwind the rest as the market climbs. What are the unique advantages of PRBLX?
  • 12 Tax Changes Joe Biden Wants to Make
    Well, except for the Section 8 vouchers.
    How do you figure? The income cap? There have been Section 8 vouchers for some time, not sure about the original 1970s legislation, but since 2000 or the 1990s, iirc.
  • VWINX
    DHHIX might be worth looking at. Its housed alongside VWINX in the Mixed 1 Pot in my portfolio.
  • Perpetual Buy/Sell/Why Thread
    Miners sagged Friday and were off as of noon today. Slipped a really small amount of $$ into OPGSX today to bolster the existing small amount. It’s no longer part of my normal allocation, as the price rise has been too steep this year. Now just 1-2% of portfolio. Strictly spec. However, three of my other funds have significant exposure to miners / metals: PRPFX, BRCAX, ABRZX.
    A little bit of the glittery stuff goes a long way - unless you’re in to swallowing lit torches. :)
  • VWINX
    I would be interested in a science experiment. Are there any suggestions of funds that are similar to the 5 year CAGR 6.37% Sharpe 0.91 and Max Draw -17.43% (2/21--3/23/2020) of VWINX? I want to eliminate any fund with greater than -17.43% Max Drawdown. Key: the fund can be any asset class, any sector, any allocation etc. Any fund/ETF in the universe. (don't give me VWIAX). Two examples I have found is VSCGX and strangely VGCIX. Any suggestions?
  • The Struggles of a 60/40 Portfolio for Pensions and Individual Investors
    My portfolio is similar to a traditional 60/40 portfolio at about 55/35/10 (short term & other). No plans to change course anytime soon. Four funds somewhat fit the traditional 60/40 mould: BTBFX, JABAX, RPGAX, and VLAAX (Fido will not let me into PRWCX image ).
  • Question re: ETF NUSI from Nationwide - Tax treatment of distributions, "return of capital"
    Mark: Thanks for reply/comments. Thanks for link to ROC post, but it is an explanation of Return ON Capital. I was asking for clarification/explanation of Return OF Capital.
    Since posting my question, I came across helpful post from 'Greg Group' which says (in part):
    The premiums received for the call writes is not considered income until the position has been completed or ended. Therefore, the CEF has the cash premiums but it can’t be considered income because the option trade has not ended. When this cash is used for distributions, it will be classified as return of capital instead of income. In reality, this distribution was not a result of returning cash from exceeding the growth of income and it is not a transfer of equity value from the company to shareholders. The distribution is merely classified as return of capital because it does not meet the terms of recognized income yet.
    Full link (at SeekingAlpha) is here:
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/314510-the-best-buy-write-closed-end-funds
  • Question re: ETF NUSI from Nationwide - Tax treatment of distributions, "return of capital"
    This might help.
    ROC: The Great Decider
    It also helps to think that when you buy an option, either a put or a call, you can earn a profit just by holding the option even if the option is not executed.
  • Question re: ETF NUSI from Nationwide - Tax treatment of distributions, "return of capital"
    [1] ETF.com PROFILE: https://www.etf.com/NUSI
    [2] NUSI PAGE AT NATIONWIDE: https://nationwidefinancial.com/products/investments/etfs/fund-details/NUSI
    [3] NUSI FACTSHEET: https://nationwidefinancial.com/media/pdf/MFM-3425AO.pdf
    [4] RULE 19a-1 DISCLOSURE, JUL 2020: https://nationwidefinancial.com/media/pdf/MFN-0324M7.pdf [a]
    NUSI is an ETF from Nationwide that uses an options strategy to generate income from its holdings in the Nasdaq 100.
    According to the "Supplemental Tax Information" appearing near the bottom of the fund page (#2), the fund seems to be distributing a "return of capital", although precise categorization won't be known until after year-end.
    QUESTION: Can someone explain (or provide a reference to) what it is about options trading that produces this "return of capital"?
    [a] For example, the 19a-1 disclosure linked above includes the following:
    In connection with the monthly dividend payment of $0.1793 per share payable on July 24, 2020 to shareholders of record on July 23, 2020, it is anticipated that 100% of such dividend will be a return of capital.
  • 12 Tax Changes Joe Biden Wants to Make
    .....voters and economists are beginning to hone in on Biden's tax plan, which aims to raise between $3.3 trillion and $3.7 trillion in additional federal tax revenue over the next decade if implemented fully in 2021.
    Here are the 12 big tax law changes the former vice president is calling for.
    https://fool.com/taxes/2020/08/23/12-tax-changes-joe-biden-wants-to-make/
  • Chinese security threats offer the chance to rethink the U.S. economy
    *Bump*
    Thought provoking - meshes with the report from The Manhattan Institute concerning rare earth metals and renewable energy. A couple of thoughts -
    1) I think the TPP was designed to help in this area (ie: a combined response to China’s take no prisoners tactics).
    2) The author is recommending an industrial policy - hasn’t this country shown that our version of capitalism is superior to central planning? (I’m thinking Japan in the ‘80s, more than the USSR) I’d like to hear the counter argument, maybe from Russ Roberts on EconTalk.
    3) Note that he doesn’t say the US needs to relax permitting requirements so as to mine the necessary resources here.
    4) US manufacturing jobs have declined since the ‘80s (?) but as a % of GDP, manufacturing in this country has held its own.
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    Fidelity does not charge commissions for trading US stocks online. Any number of orders.
    https://www.fidelity.com/trading/commissions-margin-rates
    Vanguard also has no commissions for trading stocks online. Any client level, any number of orders.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/transaction-fees-commissions/stocks
    Toward the end of last year, most brokerages eliminated online commissions for all domestic stock and ETF trades.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2020/01/02/low-fee-pioneer-vanguard-finally-joins-the-crowd-by-dropping-stock-commissions-to-zero.html
  • What do you hold in taxable accounts?
    These days, all ETFs are free at many brokerages, including Vanguard and Fidelity.
    An exception is that Vanguard will not let you buy leveraged or inverse ETFs, and will charge you a commission to sell those ETFs you already hold there.
    https://investor.vanguard.com/investing/leveraged-inverse-etf-etn
    While Fidelity prominently features its own ETFs and those of Blackrock (iShares), it lets you buy and sell all ETFs without commissions.
    https://screener.fidelity.com/ftgw/etf/evaluator/gotoBL/research#/home
    Given that stock and ETF trades are already free, ISTM the major benefit of free trades at Vanguard is for TF mutual funds. (At Fidelity, you may be charged a transaction fee to buy a fund, but selling is free - subject to a possible short term trading fee for NTF funds.)
    Vanguard counts only Vanguard funds (including ETF share class) when adding up the assets you hold there for free trades. Free trades come at the Flagship ($1M) level or above. (T. Rowe Price likewise counts only TRP funds when determining which perks it will give you.)
    Fidelity counts all assets you hold there toward its customer levels - Premium ($250K), Private Client ($1M). However, it seems to be quietly phasing these out. A few years ago, it became difficult to find any description of Premium services, and now I can't find a clear Fidelity page on its Private Client services.
    Still, at least one perk remains for customers at these levels: ATM fee reimbusements for all brokerage accounts (not just CMA accounts).
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    Hi guys,
    2 things to look for right now: first is school sales (it's the second largest driver after Christmas in the economy); and the second is: what will Congress do on its return from summer vacation? It's HUGE.
    As far as 19, I think we all know it's going to get worse as winter closes. That leads us to Christmas.....will it be good? I think so. Think online (investment thought). Also, healthcare.....no one hates it now (buy!).
    So now to where I think the market will go......higher, much higher than we all think. The other QE's also went higher than we thought. Now we have an ocean like nothing we've ever seen before, and it's still early in the game. We have TINA and FOMO with cash on the sidelines and a fed that will say how high inflation will go due to their buying. If you are going to go by the old metrics, book, PE, ROE, ROC....you will lose. Until the fed pulls or stops supporting the market, nothing matters. Should it stumble, mother will be there. They said that. As the economy strengthens and the fed put stays, I could see S&P - 4000 due to the ocean. Again, just me thinking.....
    Again, every other QE went far beyond what we thought.
    God bless
    the Pudd
    p.s. Skeeter, I don't think we're going down that far. Be quick or be dead.
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    Any non psychotic investment advisor would look at my portfolios and shutter, but I have tried to match my overall equity and risk assets to my ability to sleep at night.
    I have about 20% in equities, 10 % in other stuff ( Gold, MERFX, COGIX, TAIL ( up 8% this year)
    The rest ( 65-70%) is in ST high grade bonds and cash. I think all traditional methods of evaluating the market are out the window with Covid. The Pandemic really depends on a bunch of "Bros" at colleges not infecting each other, and not infecting the staff, teachers and grandparents
    No evidence I have seen in the last two weeks that this will not end badly
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    HI @johnN, I've pretty much packed the trunk in high yield at about 20% of the portfolio. A good number of my asset allocation and hybird income give me good exposure to this asset class so it no longer is a go for me to add more as a stand alone.
    Hi @Puddnhead, Yep I agree about playing the dip if it will progress into a pull back which is a decline in the five to ten percent range. I'll want to see a reading on my barometer in the 160 range before opening a spiff.
    Hi @expatsp, I usually let my barometer be my guide as when to load equities. I have found in the past a good entry point is when the barometer has a reading of 160, or better. The higher the reading the more the investment value the S&P 500 Index has over a lower reading. That's my plan 160 or greater.
    Hi @sma3. Yep, I agree on the quandary. Sometimes it is hard to just sit but sometimes if you are fully invested within your asset allocation as I am that is perhaps the best thing to do. Right now, I've got ants in my pants, looking for an opportunity and not finding one.
    Hi @Derf, One of the things that worked well for me in the last market swoon was to enter in step fasion with each buy step being greater than the previous based upon the theory that the deeper the pull back went the less risk there was in buying. I'm thinking from memory I had a total of about eight buy steps as I bought on the way down and then on the rebound until I reached my average buy in point. However, with any plan build some flexability into it.
    Hi @carew388. Merger arbitrage funds like MERFX or HMEAX is something that I have not invested in before. It is something I'll have to study up on. Can you tell me and the others that have made comment what you favor about them and how this has worked out for you. Is it a possition that can be held long term? Or, is it more of an in and out play? I'd be very interested in hearing your comments.
    Again guys ... thanks for making comment.
    Old_Skeet
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    I am also in a quandary. I don't see Covid disappearing and I think it will cause at the best a "W" recovery. While these extremely low interest rates do sorta justify the sky high PEs we are seeing, I am always leary putting more money into equities when valuations are stretched like this. We ( SP500) are at tops not seen since the dot.com bust ( But back then the 10 year treasury was yielding what 5%?)
    The additional disaster is the basement low bond yields. The country might keep chugging along without inflation, but to believe this I think you have to assume there will be no economic recovery.
    At some point, either covoid will be controlled, the market will blast off and inflation with it, and bonds crater, or covid will continue the economy sputter, bankruptcies take off and the market crash.
    Thus you can either assume the worse and get a capital gain out of your Treasuries, or party on and hope American Ingenuity will beat Covid, convincingly.
    I am light on equities but don't see bonds as providing the ballast they used to and am stuck in cash.
    i have bought small amounts of blue chip dividend stocks, esp Health care, consumer staples etc staying away from REITS and Utilities, hoping to add more when the market tanks
    If I felt comfortable with options I could follow some of the strategies to profit in both scenarios without risking the nest egg.
  • With stock valuations high and bond yields low ... Where is the best place to put new money?
    Hi Skeeter,
    1. The next dip will be fast. I think it will work, but be quick because the dip-watchers will be buying. Have a plan now.
    2. Will work if, as you say, things go as planned.
    3. Real estate is a no go for me. Also think bankruptcies and defaults ..... it's too early yet.
    4. How bad do you want to invest? Please be an American. More is always better. Planes, tanks, ships, missiles......haven't you learned that yet? lol......
    5. CFIAX - is not something I would add to value and low quality bonds. Why is the market going to change soon to make this good? Also, has no cash in my opinion. INPAX would be a better choice, just me saying. Better quality.....it's what you want with what's coming. You, the one with so many funds.....why buy now? You're being a Robin Hood-er, bro'.
    XXXXXXXXX ......uh, that was the Dukester. I can't get a cold one without his causing a problem. What did he say?
    You're dealing with an ocean of money. Wherever you go, it's been bought already. So his advice is to get some good whiskey .... the sipping stuff..... and relax for awhile. It's not time yet for this. The Brown One ......if he weren't a dog, the things he might do.
    God bless
    the Pudd