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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Options for Income and Taxes
    @rforno - Yeah. I can now proudly said it's called the Vertical Put Credit Spread. I feel so smart :-)
    Seriously though, after what happened to bond, bond-like, "income" funds in the last couple of months I would rather take my own risk with money I would normally not invest. If MM funds offered something in return I would never have tried this. Few months back you could have gotten 2%. Now you can get 1.5% going to zero at Marcus, for instance. At brokerages though MM funds are not FDIC insured and after looking at how much Schwab Money Market yielded in March, I've absolutely had it.
    The key is to stop being greedy and remind yourself you are not investing, and to simply take the money and run every chance you get. So far I've done well. Made another $400 odd since I started this thread. I just dunno if I can do it with larger amounts of cash and worried a bit if I mess up, so still researching a few things.
    Lastly, wanted to add Vanguard sucks at options trading. Will likely ditch it for cash and go to Schwab or Fido.
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    PRIJX is emerging market and not a broad international MF - fyi
    Thanks to msf. I haven't tried it but it looks like what I am looking for.
    Register For The Site
    https://www3.troweprice.com/aaweb1/accountAccess/publicBenefitsOfRegistration.do

  • A Look At The Current State of the Economy ( & Markets) and Where They May Be Headed -- Heisenberg
    @FD1000 Thanks for providing a current reading based on the charts. I only loosely follow them but have also noticed that VIX has been in general trending down for over a month.
  • A Look At The Current State of the Economy ( & Markets) and Where They May Be Headed -- Heisenberg
    Looking at the charts.
    QQQ signaled a buy based on the MACD at the end of March. QQQ passed the 200 days MA in the second week of April, then passed the 50 days MA, then test the 50 days MA again and now is up and running with a clear buy.
    The SP500 is still struggling, The MACD signaled a buy at the end of March, the price passed the 50 days MA twice but still is not above the 200 days MA.
    It's not a secret that unemployment will hit at least 15-20% and the economy right now is in bad shape but the stock market is looking 6-12 months ahead. The assumption is that most states will open their businesses in the next 1-3 months and the economy will get better. It would still take 1-2 years to get to normal. The fiscal and monetary policies were a success so far. If the Coronavirus will come back it's going to be ugly.
    The SP500 and QQQ are capitalization-weighted indexes. This means that the biggest companies matter much more than the smaller ones. There are many companies in bad shape but several of the top ones are doing just fine and why the indexes are doing better. QQQ is mostly high tech where you see it even more.
    The healthcare(XLV) sector is doing great too and the (chart) looks better than QQQ or XLK.
    Is the above a guarantee? of course not. I'm skeptical like many of you but the charts are based on actual prices that traders were willing to pay.
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    Thanks to msf. I haven't tried it but it looks like what I am looking for.
    Register For The Site
    https://www3.troweprice.com/aaweb1/accountAccess/publicBenefitsOfRegistration.do
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    PRIJX got some attention here a few of years back, when it was known as EM Value. It did great things in 2016-17 and then it didn't. TR for last three years is -3.67% and YTD -27.9%. Ouch!
  • Mostly Simplicity outdistances Complexity
    Hi Guys,
    Most times a simple plan will generate superior outcomes over a more complex plan.
    Many examples exist, especially from. WWII. A famous example comes from the sinking of the Bismarck super battleship. Remember it was described as the biggest ship with the biggest guns. It was initially crippled by a torpedo that was dropped by an old, outdated twin winged, slow speed aircraft with an open cockpit. Time had made these airplanes obsolete, well almost obsolete. But war demands immediate action and that plane was what was available.
    During the attack this plane evaded all the battleships elaborate and sophisticated air defenses and delivered the crippling blow. The problem was that the battleship guns were designed to aim and fire at modern airplanes with the lowest speed of 120 MPH. But this old airplane only flew at 88 MPH so it evaded all shots at it. Modern technology never scored a hit and was defeated. So was the famous battleship.
    Here is a Link that shows the plane: https://www.warhistoryonline.com/instant-articles/the-fairey-swordfish.html
    Sometimes, old technology that has survived the cruel test of time is superior to newer technology with all its tempting enhancements. Mostly that’s good progress until time, once again, provides a challenging test with an unexpected twist. History never completely repeats itself. Small differences matter. That lesson is especially true when making investment decisions. If it were easy, everyone would be a billionaire.
    Best Regards
  • Global Stocks Gain As Lockdown Eases and US Stock Futures Gain Ahead of Big Earnings Week
    Global stocks gain as investors look to lockdown easing.
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-global-markets/shares-gain-as-investors-look-to-lockdown-easing-idUSKCN22900Z?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)
    U.S. stock index futures gained late Sunday, ahead of earnings reports this week from some of America's biggest companies.
    http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-futures-retreat-ahead-of-big-earnings-week-2020-04-26
    Looks like it's going to be a good stock day in the markets today as stock futures are up across the board both here and abroad. Let's also see if high yield bonds move upward with their stock cousins. I'm beleiving they will. This indeed could turn into a strong up day (and week) for some investors especially if the shorts start to cover. As I write the VIX is in the mid 30's. If today is a strong rally day for stocks I look for the VIX to continue its decline. On March 20th I recordered the VIX with a reading of 62 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2305. Friday, I recorded the VIX with a reading of 37 with the S&P 500 Index at a valuation of 2837. As the VIX moves lower stocks trend to move higher. Should we have a strong up week in the stock market (say a 5% gain) then this will put the S&P 500 Index just below the 3,000 mark at 2980 range. For this to happen earnings, for the S&P 500 Index, will need to get marked to the $150.00 range. And, this could indeed happen. As President Trump says ... "We'll see!"
    The Futures are linked below.
    https://finviz.com/futures.ashx
  • What's UP in bondland??? , a follow-up
    I checked a few - YTD
    FFRHX -9.97% (rates aren’t rising)
    VWEHX -7.77% High yield
    CIOZX -11.27%
    NEFZX -11.22% ( listed as multi sector, someone didn’t get the memo)
    Multi sector funds
    FADMX -6.1%
    PONAX -6.37%
    NSTLX -6.46%
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    If you believe in the benefits of diversification, PSILX is a fine choice. It has low expenses for an international fund, above average returns and exposure to almost all segments of foreign markets.
    Good risk/reward profile, there on PSILX. Look at the 10-year: Avg/High.
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    T Rowe use to have some tools I used, such as portfolio analysis with a Stock Overlap feature. Do they still have that?
    I have tried logging on but they do not recognize me nor can I find a way to create a new account. I have some T Rowe funds but thru Fidelity.
    They still provide some Morningstar tools. Since I have an account I'm not going to attempt to reregister, but it looks like this page might be what you're looking for:
    Register For The Site
    https://www3.troweprice.com/aaweb1/accountAccess/publicBenefitsOfRegistration.do
  • T Rowe Price International Funds
    I own PRIDX. ... It fell hard with coronavirus. But it's coming back, down -13% now, ytd. Down to 3 stars, but still with a silver decoration. ... Top 15% among peers, ytd. Not a great showing compared to peers LAST year, but still very good indeed.
    For a few months, I've been promising myself to make a post on being careful about what numbers do and don't represent (i.e. look behind the numbers). Figures like ERs, duration, performance. One of these days.
    Meanwhile, to deconstruct these numbers and ratings a bit:
    PRIDX outperformed both its benchmark and its category 2019 Q4, 2020 Q1 and YTD, so while it fell hard with coronavirus, on a relative basis it performed admirably. It's the whole market that has come back (to some extent), and PRIDX has more or less just kept up its rate of outperformance.
    So why the 3 stars? M* continues to rate its risk as below average (as of March 31) for 3 years, 5 years, and 10 years. Also as of March 31, M* rates 3/5/10 year performance as average, above average, average.
    http://performance.morningstar.com/fund/performance-return.action?t=PRIDX&region=usa&culture=en-US
    Generally, above average return with below average risk gets a fund into, or close to a 4 star rating. Thus, as of March 31, PRIDX was rated 4 stars for the five year period (above average performance), but 3 stars for the three and ten year periods.
    The overall star rating is a weighted average: 3 years (20%), 5 years (30%), and 10 years (50%). So PRIDX gets 3 stars.
    https://www.morningstar.com/content/dam/marketing/shared/research/methodology/771945_Morningstar_Rating_for_Funds_Methodology.pdf
    Now take a look at the 3/5/10 performance figures. To be rated above average, a fund must be in the top 32.5% of its category (but not in the top 10%).
    PRIDX came close to above average performance, but didn't make it over 3 years (38th percentile) or 10 years (33rd percentile). Shift that 10 year performance a little and the 10 year star rating should move up to 4 stars, bringing the overall weighted average rating also up to four stars.
    It looks like this has happened. Take performance rankings through today (April 26). 10 year moves up to 27th percentile, 5 year drops slightly from 14th to 17th percentile, and 3 year moves up to 29th percentile. All above average performances.
    So one should expect the star rating to move back to 4 stars when it's recalculated unless the fund stumbles in the interim.
    All of this goes to show that even when looking at long term performance, what a fund has done lately can have a significant impact.
    The poor showing last year? Over the whole year it underperformed its category by 3.18% where the average gain was 27.78%. Not a great showing, but not as bad as its 71st percentile would superficially suggest. Also, it never had a really bad quarter; it just chugged along, trailing by as much as 1.18% in Q3 and as little as 0.25% in Q4. Not great, but fairly consistent and nothing obvious to get concerned about.
  • Updated Trinity Study for 2020 – More Withdrawal Rates!
    Thank you for the link. Have to read more.
    For example a portfolio of 100% PRWCX would have a "Safe Withdrawal Rate" of 10% and a "Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate" of 5.6%. The rule of thumb for a Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate is 4% according to the Trinity Study (linked below).
  • A Look At The Current State of the Economy ( & Markets) and Where They May Be Headed -- Heisenberg
    This article provides a useful look at the current situation and possible future trends. (Some may find it useful to glide around the more dystopian/dramatic references in the article.) Here are a few excerpts:
    The manufacturing sector hasn't completely rolled over yet, but the services sector simply ceased to exist starting late last month.....The message is clear: Main Street isn't just hurting, it is disappearing in a very literal sense. As Atlanta Fed boss Raphael Bostic warned earlier this month, "May is going to loom large, in terms of the transition of concern from this being a liquidity issue… to this perhaps translating and transferring into a solvency issue, and whether companies can exist at all."
    image
    (...from Homebase, a scheduling and time tracking tool used by more than 100,000 local businesses covering 1 million hourly employees.)
    .
    .
    Deutsche Bank rolled up the fiscal and monetary support programs announced and implemented in the US and Europe into a single "bailout" figure. The sheer size of the COVID-19 response necessitated a log scale (on the left axis) in order to help "better identify the earlier bailouts and get a rough feel visually for the numbers," as the bank put it. ....."Obviously we won’t know how much will be used until much further down the road," the bank cautioned, in the course of presenting the numbers and accompanying visuals.
    image

    ....policymakers have been deliberately suppressing volatility, compressing risk premia, tamping down credit spreads and keeping the market wide-open for borrowers for the better part of a decade....
    Deutsche Bank's George Saravelos.....At the extreme, central banks could become permanent command economy agents administering equity and credit prices, aggressively subduing financial shocks. With unlimited capacity to print money, central banks have unlimited capacity to intervene in asset markets too. Put simply, a central bank that pegs bond, credit and equity markets is highly likely to stabilize portfolio flows as well.
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4340027-dystopia-now
  • FGDFX - Fidelity Disruptor Fund
    I believe that, unlike many cash back cards, Fido credit card now sends the tax form for these 2%, so it is not 2% cash back (no taxes, just cash return), but 2% minus taxes.
    This has been settled law for decades now. Here's a CNBC page discussing whether rewards are taxable.
    https://www.cnbc.com/select/are-credit-card-rewards-taxable/
    As it states, rewards (whether points, cash, or miles) are not taxable so long as you had to spend something to receive them. So a signing bonus that did not require a min spend would be taxable, but that's about the only exception. (Here's Fidelity's $100 sign up bonus promotion that requires spending $1,000 in the first 90 days.)
    Fidelity does have an option to contribute the rewards to an IRA account. In that case, the reward is considered a contribution. That both reduces the amount of additional money you can contribute to the IRA and permits you to take a deduction for the contribution. Of course, as Fidelity points out, if you are not eligible to make that contribution, then the amount is subject to an excise tax.
    For completeness, I just checked the 2019 Fidelity Combined 1099 for someone I'm helping with taxes. There is no amount entered for cash back from the card. The only entries in these 1099s are for divs received from funds.
    The rules about combining credit card rebates with IRAs could lead one to think that the rewards were taxable. Perhaps this is what you were thinking of, or was there something else?
  • Updated Trinity Study for 2020 – More Withdrawal Rates!
    Using tools like Portfolio Visualizer (click on
    metrics tab) an investor can review historical data on the safe withdrawal rate of their portfolio. For example a portfolio of 100% PRWCX would have a "Safe Withdrawal Rate" of 10% and a "Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate" of 5.6%. The rule of thumb for a Safe Perpetual Withdrawal Rate is 4% according to the Trinity Study (linked below).
    Understanding these concepts is an important element of "safely" deriving a portion of one's income in retirement over a time frame of 30 - 50 years.
    From the Article:
    First, I wanted to see how this was working with recent stock market returns. The original study was only covering years up to 1995. I wanted to have more recent data. I wanted to make sure that the results were holding with more recent stock market behavior. So this simulation will cover returns until the end of 2019!
    Secondly, the original study was only covering up to thirty years of retirement. I wanted to be sure that the portfolio can sustain withdrawals for much more extended periods. For people retiring early, I think that 50 years is not unreasonable.
    The Trinity Study:
    https://thepoorswiss.com/trinity-study/
    The Update to the Trinity Study for 2020:
    https://thepoorswiss.com/updated-trinity-study/
    Here's a 4 Part Series on the Topic.
    Part 1:
    safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-1-background.html
    Part 2:
    https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/14/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-2-enough-data.html
    Part 3:
    https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/21/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-3-more-bootstrapping.html
    Part 4:
    https://fiprofessor.com/2019/07/27/safe-withdrawal-rates-guide-part-4-perpetual-rates.html
  • When it comes to alloaction funds___
    Hi guys. Another asset allocation fund that I like ... but, do not own is SFAAX. They use to be more transparent with posting their positioning but now they just list their baseline asset allocation as a 40/60 (bond/stock) portfolio. However, I know it gets jockeyed from time to time based upon the manager's read on the makret. I have learned that its stock allocation can range from a low of 45% upwards to a high of 75% while its bond allocation can range from a low of 25% to a high of 55%. It is another fund that has performed well in this recent stock market downdraft. In checking it's performance I'm finding that it is down year to date by -2.65% with a ten year average total return of +9.39% as of 4/24/2020. And, as I write, it is off it's 52 week high by 6.68%. In comparison, the S&P 500 Index is off its 52 week high by 16.2% with a ten year average return of around 11.0%. With this, the fund does employ and offer some downside risk measures while providing excellent returns for an asset allocation fund.
    MFO list this as a moderate asset allocation fund with a risk level rating of 3 and with a performance rating of 5. And, yes it made MFO's Honor Roll.
    Anybody on the board own this fund? If so ... perhaps, you would be willing to report its positioning from its latest shareholder report? And, make some additional comments. I'd be most interested in learning of your comments and thoughts.