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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Fidelity Macro Opportunities Fund will be liquidated
    Reportedly, Vanguard has about 20,000 employees; although not a concern, for quality of service, at this house, as we don't travel to Vanguard for our own investments.
    I will take credit for about $8.5 million of Fidelity's asset base from many individual recommendations over 40 years. :)
  • Praise for Graham's "The Intelligent Investor."
    I read it years ago, great book!
    I see kids all over the internet getting started in investing, and having all kinds of questions.
    I usually just post a list of about 5-6 books they should read, and this is one of them. But I don't think young people read many books, it's easier to just spam the internet up with basic fundamental questions. If they'd read a few of the classic books they'd be better off than going online and asking questions with zero knowledge.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 11/9/24
    Nice to see Meb Faber get some attention (Barron’s Interview). I’ve been binging on his podcasts dating back several years - mostly interviews with market players / fund managers. Accessing these through my Amazon Audible accounts- though they are available elsewhere. Quite entertaining and sometimes insightful - particularly if interested in mitigating portfolio risk. I was in the global allocation fund (GAA) for a month or so and then moved the $$ into his Trinity (TNTY) TRTY. It’s 15% of my diversified portfolio. I wouldn't overdo it, but I think the trend following approach has a small role to play in a broadly diversified portfolio. For TRTY the trend following approach comprises around 30% of the fund as I recall.
    More broadly, Cambria has as many losers as it does winners. Certainly not the best shop in town. M* rates the firm “below average” in its stewardship section. (Reasons are a bit complex. Read it before investing with them.) And both funds I reference above receive only “neutral” medalist ratings - part of the reason being over-reliance on a single person (Faber).
    One positive re the funds I mentioned is that they invest in a fairly large number of other etfs - some from other fund families. And fees are low.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    I view prospectuses as notorious for obfuscation, aiming at ambiguity and saying as little as possible. Are there really five co-managers here? If so, then how many co-managers are there on PRWCX? Its prospectus has nearly identical wording aside from the names of the putative co-managers:
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee chair is ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and works with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: David R. Giroux, chair, Paul Cho, Donald J. Easley, Matthew Frustaci, Steven D. Krichbaum, Kevin Patrick Loome, Simon Paterson, Sal Rais, Vivek Rajeswaran, Farris G. Shuggi, Mike Signore, Brian Solomon, Matthew Stevenson, Chen Tian, Jon Davis Wood, and Ashley R. Woodruff.
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=pros&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M105
    In contrast, Giroux and Shuggi are listed as equal co-managers of PRCFX in the Management section of the prospectus. Later, in the "More About the Fund" section, one finds the committee verbiage:
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee cochairs are ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and work with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: David R. Giroux and Farris G. Shuggi, cochairs, Paul Cho, Gregg Gola, Kevin Klassen, Steven D. Krichbaum, Chase Lancaster, Amanda Ludwitzke, Jordan M. McKinnie, Justin Eric Olsen, Vivek Rajeswaran, Nikhil Shah, Mike Signore, Latika Signorelli, Brian Solomon, Matthew Stevenson, Chen Tian, Tamara P. Wiggs, and Jon Davis Wood.
    https://prospectus-express.broadridge.com/summary.asp?doctype=pros&clientid=trowepll&fundid=77954M402
    If PRCFX has but two day-to-day managers, and if Giroux is the manager of PRWCX, then Giroux is also the sole manager of this new ETF. Conversely, if this ETF has five managers, then PRWCX has 16 and PRCFX has 19 (if I've counted correctly).
    As to AUM, M* reports Giroux manages ten funds, including variable annuity portfolios. PRCFX is the only one where there is a co-chair listed. He is sole manager (depending on how one defines "manager") of the other nine funds. Total AUM is just under $100B, per M* and Financial Times current data.
    Capital Appreciation Premium Income ETF is different from the existing funds, at least if one can glean anything from prospectus tea leaves. Its objective is "to provide regular distributions while aiming for capital preservation with potential for capital appreciation." Most of Giroux' funds' objectives are capital appreciation (or capital growth) only.
    Arguably Penn Mutual's Flexibly Managed Fund comes closer to this ETF with its objective "to seek to maximize total return (capital appreciation and income)." But investing for total return is not the same as investing for income.
    Further, only Capital Appreciation Premium Income explicitly calls out stock dividends as a component of its investment strategy. "Specifically, the fund seeks to provide regular distributions that may consist of dividends and cash from the covered call option premiums." This sounds more like an equity-income fund with a covered call overlay than a typical Giroux fund.
    Still, Flexibly Managed Fund is permitted "to a limited extent" to write covered calls "primarily in an effort to protect against downside risk or to generate additional income"
    Then again, it's all tea leaves and slideware at this point.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    M* shows $5k minimum to get into NRDCX. Schwab shows $2.5k. And $1k for IRA. But there's a $49.95 fee.
  • Aegis Value Fund Distributions
    I hold Aegis Value Fund, symbol AVALX, in a retirement account but have been considering it for my taxable account since I have more room. The December income and capital gain distibution estimates are:
    Ordinary Income $0.37 - $0.41
    Short-Term Capital Gains $0.49 - $0.54
    Long-Term Capital Gains $2.66 - $2.92
    The NAV closed at 41.15 yesterday. I am in a fairly high tax bracket and it seems to me that the ordinary income and STCG distributions are fairly high. Using an NAV of 41.15, the LTCG distribution is 6.4%. That too seems high. I am concluding that AVALX is best suited for my retirement account. Is this a correct conclusion?
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    @BaluBalu
    FINI........MBB is on the list, just below LQD
    NOW, back to arranging leaf drop onto the lawn; from natures positioning and to get the big mulch job while temps and no rain remain in my part of the state, and before the 5:20pm sunset..........that really sucks.
  • T. Rowe Price Capital Appreciation Premium Income and Hedged Equity ETFs in registration
    Since he is in the chair of the Advidisory Committe, he is ultimately responsible for managing the day to day managment,
    From the original registration filing:
    T. Rowe Price has established an Investment Advisory Committee with respect to the fund. The committee chair is ultimately responsible for the day-to-day management of the fund’s portfolio and works with the committee in developing and executing the fund’s investment program. The members of the committee are as follows: David R. Giroux, chair, Justin Eric Olsen, Vivek Rajeswaran, Farris G. Shuggi, Mike Signore, and Brian Solomon. The following information provides the year that the chair first joined the Firm and the chair’s specific business experience during the past five years (although the chair may have had portfolio management responsibilities for a longer period). Mr. Giroux has been chair of the committee since the fund’s inception. He joined the Firm in 1998, and his investment experience dates from that time. He has served as a portfolio manager with the Firm throughout the past five years. Messrs. Olsen, Rajeswaran, Shuggi, Signore, and Solomon have been co-portfolio managers of the fund since its inception. Mr. Olsen joined the Firm in 2014, and his investment experience dates from 2013. During the past five years, he was a member of the Quantitative team in the Fixed Income Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2021). Mr. Rajeswaran joined the Firm in 2012, and his investment experience dates from that time. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). Mr. Shuggi joined the Firm in 2008, and his investment experience dates from that time. During the past five years, he has served as a portfolio manager (beginning in 2016), prior to becoming head of quantitative equity. Mr. Signore joined the Firm in 2015, returning in 2020, and his investment experience dates from 2010. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). Mr. Solomon joined the Firm in 2015 and his investment experiences dates from that time. During the past five years, he was an analyst in the U.S. Equity Division and has served as an associate portfolio manager (beginning in 2023). The Statement of Additional Information (SAI) provides additional information about the portfolio managers’ compensation, other accounts managed by the portfolio managers, and the portfolio managers’ ownership of the fund’s shares.
  • Barron's on Funds & Retirement, 11/9/24
    Ad-hoc feature returns this week.
    LINK1 LINK2 BarronsLINK
    TRADER. Wall Street exhaled as the control of White House and Senate had clarity, but that for House is still in limbo (Republicans need to pick up only 7 more, but Democrats need 19 more). Stocks rose sharply, while the volatility index VIX fell sharply. Investors are reviewing Trumponomics 1.0 to figure out Trumponomics 2.0 and are betting on value/cyclicals (IVE), financials (XLF, KRE), energy (XLE), industrials, defense and small caps. In healthcare, Medicare Advantage (Part C) may get a boost, and ACA/Obamacare the boot.
    But the economic and market conditions now are different. It’s unclear how much of the tax cuts, tariffs (on friends and foes) and deregulations will go through. Watch tech and retail for first adverse impacts of new tariffs-counter-tariffs. Inflation may remain above the Fed’s +2% average target and that target may be in question (e.g. why not +3%?). The budget deficit is already double that in 2016, and the bond market may not like a big growth in deficits. That has been the message of the bond market already, but 5%+ 10-yr may pose real problems for both stocks and bonds. Earnings growth estimate remain strong in double-digits.
    The elections are over and Trumponomics 2.0 will be here soon. Consider financials (XLF, KBE, KRE; play on lower rates and deregulation), value/cyclicals (IVE; catchup play), small caps (IJR, SPSM; play on domestic companies), bonds (SHY, LQD, HYG; play on lower rates, even if rates may move up later due to inflation, deficits, debt). All these had strong post-election bounces, but there is more to come.
    INTERVIEW/Q&A/FUNDS. Meb FABER, Cambria (Cofounder, CEO, CIO; SYLD, etc). Value manager Faber has an active eTF SYLD that focuses on SHAREHOLDER YIELD (dividend yield + buyback yield); the eTF also takes into account valuation, quality, momentum, and has caps on sectors and countries. Since 2009, the SP500 has been a 10-bagger, beating most other things – unprecedented, comparable to the Roaring 1920s, the Nifty Fifty of early-1970s, the Dot. com bubble of late-1990s, or whatever. Both earnings growth and P/E expansion contributed to this fantastic move. But where to now? If you put value and trend (momentum) in 4 boxes, the best box has low valuation and uptrend, but the 2nd best box is expensive valuation and uptrend (meaning trend trumps valuation). The ways to diversify away from market-cap indexes include dividend stocks (obviously, Faber prefers shareholder yield), foreign markets, EMs, etc. The firm also has an active global asset allocation eTF GAA, an eTF of eTFs.
    FUNDS. Indexing has benefited large caps. Many startups and early-stage companies remain private longer, and there are several unicorns among the private companies. The M&A and bankruptcy have eliminated many weak public small caps. So, the universe of public small caps has shrunk. The total market Wilshire 5000 index now has only 3,370 stocks. Small cap R2000 has many unprofitable companies (a better small-cap index is SP SC 600). People are thinking that the old Fama-French studies about outperformance of small caps don’t apply anymore. Mentioned are OEFs AVALX, NEAGX; eTFs DFAS, IJR, IWM, SPSM. (By @lewisbraham at MFO)
    FUNDS. Post-election, Tesla/TSLA has run up sharply, but the new CEF DXYZ (3/26/24- ) has done twice better; its premium is an astounding +329%. It has high exposure to TSLA and SpaceX. The fund buys private unicorns through their venture-capital financing and pre-IPO stages. But its recent rise may be as fleeting as its moonshot in April. (Retail investors don’t have easy access to the private-equity market, so the premium is so high. The private-equity market is quite illiquid and volatile.)
    INCOME. Small caps with good dividends include CWH (retail), CRGY (energy), KGS (energy); eTFs DES, OUSM. Small caps are seen among the beneficiaries of Trumponomics 2.0.
    OTHER VOICES. Allan SLOAN. There aren’t many companies that now offer traditional/DB PENSION plans. Those that still offer them to current employees or retirees are offloading the DB pension plans for ANNUITIES from insurers. The characterization and evaluation of liabilities are different for pension plans and insurers. So, companies typically have large one-time gains on these conversions. An obvious loss for beneficiaries is the loss of PBGC guarantee for the pension plans (and they don’t have a say on what insurer was chosen for conversion).
    RETIREMENT. Just when investors thought that bond yields were head lower, they rose instead. The bond market is getting nervous about annual deficits and total debt. Bond volatility index MOVE is high (it has eased some post-election). But the bond market is more than the rate-sensitive Treasuries. Consider shorter maturities with more credit risks – VMBS, IGSB, USHY, FRA (CEF).
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    A one time special reflection for Veterans Day, Monday, November 11: I self-salute and to those who served.
    The bond markets will be closed for normal trading on Monday.
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    FIRST: The ELECTIONS are mostly finished. What comes next for the investing world of bonds is not yet known or understood, except for those have a better guessing system than I. I can only watch and listen a little bit and let the numbers try to bring forth meaningful directions.
    W/E November 8 , 2024..... Can the bond NAVs butchers block be put away ???
    --- 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'UP' for this weeks pricing. Many bond sectors where 'every which way' for most of the week, with price recovery for a few sessions. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, the positive pricing this week, was erratic . The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and this remains for this week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, November 4 - November 8, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.59% yield. Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week. MM's yields were down .03 - .06 for the week.................
    --- AGG = +.80% / +2.32% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.13% / +5.15% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.02% / +3.34% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.20% / +1.95% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.57% / +.60% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = +.75% / +3.24% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = +.35% / +4.61% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = +.38% / +4.36% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = +1.87% / +.89 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +1.82% / -3.34% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +2.61% / -6.29% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +2.88% / -8.47% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -3.67% / +14.69% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +4.70 % / -23.79% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.72% / +2.85% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- USFR = +.12% / +4.69% (WisdomTree Floating Rate Treasury)
    --- LQD = +1.70% / +2.97% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- MBB = +1.05% / +2.21% (I-Shares Mortgage Backed Bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.67% / +7.32% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +1.33% / +8.48 % (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.35%/+4.85% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.65% /+1.60% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +1.80%/+7.48% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +2.85% / +10.92% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +2.32% / +12.37% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.59% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • Fidelity Macro Opportunities Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1898391/000189839124000241/filing8301.htm
    497 1 filing8301.htm PRIMARY DOCUMENT
    Supplement to the
    Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund and Fidelity® Risk Parity Fund
    Class A, Class M, Class C, Class I, and Class Z
    March 30, 2024
    Prospectus
    On November 6, 2024, the Board of Trustees approved a plan of liquidation for Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund ("the fund"). Following Board approval, the fund will no longer pursue its stated investment objective and fund assets will be managed to provide for sufficient liquidity prior to liquidation. The fund is expected to liquidate on or about January 24, 2025. Effective after the close of business on November 8, 2024, new positions in the fund may no longer be opened. Existing shareholders may continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund's liquidation.
    AGMO-PSTK-1124-101
    1.9910260.101
    November 8, 2024
    Supplement to the
    Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund and Fidelity® Risk Parity Fund
    March 30, 2024
    Prospectus
    On November 6, 2024, the Board of Trustees approved a plan of liquidation for Fidelity® Macro Opportunities Fund ("the fund"). Following Board approval, the fund will no longer pursue its stated investment objective and fund assets will be managed to provide for sufficient liquidity prior to liquidation. The fund is expected to liquidate on or about January 24, 2025. Effective after the close of business on November 8, 2024, new positions in the fund may no longer be opened. Existing shareholders may continue to hold their shares and purchase additional shares through the reinvestment of dividend and capital gain distributions until the fund's liquidation.
    GMO-PSTK-1124-101
    1.9910261.101
    November 8, 2024
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Market is at an alltime superhigh and a good friend (not good enough!) tells me he is coming into a mil (+/-) in Jan if not before, and what should he considering doing with by way of investing.
    He has no short-term need (I may advise him to just splurge and spend a little) and is in his 50s.
    As he is with ML I am tempted just to tell him, on any dip next year, just go 50-50 PWRCX and FPACX, or maybe a nontrivial chunk in, you know, QQQ, and call it a day and not watch it. Other thoughts?
  • MFO Premium Questions
    In another thread, @Charles confirmed that the NAVs (not prices) are used risk and return metrics at MFOP.
    "Yeah, all risk and return metrics in MFOP are based on NAV not Price, unfortunately. So, for mutual funds, insurance funds, NAV and Price are same, by definition, as I understand it. But not so for ETFs and CEFs, especially when lots of market volatility exists (March 2020) or with low volume trades."
    https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/183150/#Comment_183150
  • MPV and MCI bond funds
    @yugo. Yeah, all risk and return metrics in MFOP are based on NAV not Price, unfortunately. So, for mutual funds, insurance funds, NAV and Price are same, by definition, as I understand it. But not so for ETFs and CEFs, especially when lots of market volatility exists (March 2020) or with low volume trades.
    There are no funds in the database that have returned 10% or more annualized for 20 years with a MAXDD about -10% or less, except one: MPV. But again, that's NAV based. Here's chart from M* showing difference between NAV and Price for MPV. Clearly, a lot more volatility in Price.
    MPV NAV vs Price
    image
    I believe someone on board once quoted: "All NAVs are opinions." In the case of MPV, it's kind of like getting an appraisal on your house. Stays steady until next appraisal or until you go to sell. Taking the long view will help.
    BTW. The NAVs for MPV and MCI are only updated every three months.
    Here are a dozen Great Owl US funds with the lowest MAXDD over last 20 years that have also returned 10% annualized. There are actually about 450 funds that have returned that well, but typically with more pain.
    20-Year GOs with Lowest MAXDD and APR Above 10% Annualized
    image
    The dozen listed in table above are: Barings Participation Investors (MPV), Barings Corporate Investors (MCI), GMO Quality III (GQETX), Natixis Vaughan Nelson Select A Small Cap Value A (NEFJX), Alger Growth & Income A (ALBAX), Needham Aggressive Growth Retail (NEAGX), Amundi Pioneer Fundamental Growth A (PIGFX), FMI Common Stock Inv (FMIMX), Victory Sycamore Established Value R (GETGX), Williamsburg Government Street Opportunities (GVMCX), Fidelity Select Leisure Portfolio (FDLSX), and State Street Elfun Trusts (ELFNX).
    I suspect if MPV and MCI were open-ended funds, they would not be on the list.
    Hope this helps.
    c
  • Social Security WEP & GPO
    Until today, I had not read this thread after the first two posts.
    When I discovered my mother does not receive the higher spousal benefit, I took my parents to my local SS office (when they retired, they moved States to live with me) and apply for the higher benefit. My parents said they had originally applied for the spousal benefit and they presumed to be getting that. They came out of the office and said the SS office employee said the benefits can not be changed after they started and sent them away. That was 15 years ago. So, for past 20 years, my mother has been cheated out of some of her benefit, I am not sure for whose benefit.
    I know people who did not receive unemployment benefits when they lost jobs while they paid unemployment insurance when employed.
    If you are a Govt employee, there are no consequences for screwing citizens.
    @Crash’s subsequent posts makes me nervous about my benefits when I apply because I was self employed 1/3rd of my working life.
    Laws are man made stuff. I do not quibble about their fairness or unfairness but I quibble about their implementation. If we do not have a rules based society, what do we have? Politicians make laws and if you do not like their behavior, you can fire them (vote them out) but you can not vote out a Govt employee.