By Old_Skeet's mythology the S&P 500 Index is gextremely overbought. I'm now leaning towards trimming my equity allocation now that I'm pretty close to getting back towards even.
Can stocks go hgher? Absoutely. And, I hope they do!

Looks like the @Old_Skeet’s overbought/oversold methodology is trumping the “infallible” “undefeated record” of the Zweig breath thrust indicator

Hi Junkster,
Great to see you posting! I do hope you continue.
I understand that FD1000 sold everything the other day. Of course, he knew what today was going to bring ;-)
Mona

This fund has had incredibly strong performance since opening in Nov of 2018, up 27.8% since inception. I can't figure out how the yield is so high, 18%.
It has about 57% in investment grade bonds, mostly mortgages and corporate credit, no EM, a duration of 2.67, an average bond price of $94.11 and 23% in cash. Non of that indicates anything risky. It only dropped about 5% in March and is up 7% YTD.
Are they doing a "return of capital"? Is it because their asset base of 12 million is so small? They have a small amount in a few derivatives but nothing close to what Pimco uses. Seems to good to be true, what am I missing?

We all have some sort of “barometer”: Internal guidance, hunches, an index we watch, technicals, a plan written down, prior experience or maybe a “guru” we follow. @Junkster, who I’ve enjoyed following a long time, seems to rely heavily on some technical indicators. Currently under discussion is the Zweig Indicator. I’m “late to school” when it comes to technicals. Even today I view them with a bit of skepticism, telling myself they’re probably better indicators of market psychology than anything else. Given that, in this era of investing, psychology - if not the name of the game - is very important however you cut it.
I enjoy Ol’Skeet’s comprehensive write-ups very much. All of us can take a cue from his meticulous planning and devotion to his value metrics. Is he always right? Don’t know. My recollection says “no.” So I went back and looked at what he wrote on March 20. That had to be very close to the recent bottom. Remember it because I made a small purchase of DODGX that day.
“The barometer as of market close Thursday maintains its reading of 180 indicating that the S&P 500 Index is extremely oversold. I am also detecting that a bottom is forming as three of the data feeds and influences that the barometer use are green lighting.” (March 20, 2020)
So good call back than Ol’Skeet.
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/55474/old-skeet-s-market-barometer-spring-reporting-and-my-positioning/p2

The market is running on fumes, hoping that 4 Qtr 2020 or at worse 2021 earnings are back to pre covid levels. Powell said they will not be, as he does not expect economy to recover until at least late 2021

@bee said “Anything surprising you in your portfolio?
Good idea bee. Sometimes it’s easier to get one’s head around a dozen or so various funds than try to take in the whole universe. Prior to today, I’d have answered your question in the affirmative - a few pleasant surprises.
But with the DJI currently off 1,000 and oil down 7-8% at last look I’ll withhold judgment. Gold was also off. Few hedges working. Looks like the shorts are having a field day “shooting them in the back on the way down” to paraphrase one short-seller I’m acquainted with. What’s interesting is that yesterday Powell basically unlocked the door of the vault, left it open, and walked away. :)
Thanks for the insightful post.

Hi @Junkster, I hope you are well and things are rolling good for you with your new endeavor.
Can you tell us more about this endeavor? From what you have written, thus far, it sounds interesting.
On the barometer ...
One of the three main feeds found in the barometer is an earnings feed for the S&P 500 Index. From a report that I follow, generated by S&P, ttm earnings for the Index are forecast to fall over the next four months, or so, from May at about the $107 range down to September to about the $94.00 range. Looks like a recession? But, generally the stock market leads! Let's hope that it continues upward and that it does not follow earnings in another swift downdraft.
Another reason that the barometer reflected an overbought nearterm condition is that 97% of the stocks within the Index were recently trading above their 50 day moving average. Where is there much nearterm upside left? Perhaps, there is as only 60% of the stocks in the Index are above their 200 day moving average. Let's hope the upward momentum continues.
And, so it goes ...
The barometer reflected information that I used to increase my allocation to equities weeks ago. Now, it is suggesting that I lighten up. Which I am in the process of doing. And, with this, I plan to sell down (not completely out) my equity allocation into this upward stock market movement.
Indeed, it is interesting about the Zweig Indicator you have referenced that many traders have used in the past with good success. I'm not knocking it. However, for me, I'm a long term investor (more so than a trader) that tweaks their equity allocation from time-to-time around my barometer readings. When the barometer reading is high indicating an oversold condition is present I buy equities and when the barometer reading is low indicating an overbought reading is present I sell equities. Pretty simple ... but, effective.
Thus far, I've never had anybody equate my system to the Zweig Thrust Indicator. Perhaps, I don't understand the Zweig Thrust Indicator or perhaps ... even more so ... you don't fully understand my system.
Please know, I wish you the very best and your continued success.
Old_Skeet

For the honest side of life. I retract the EXIT of the original subject line. I wrote previous, in a reply: "The sell fits our mix, and is not a recommendation for anyone else."
Paul Simon lyric.....modified by me:
I met my old lover (investing)
On the street last night
She seemed so glad to see me
I just smiled
And we talked about some old times
And we drank ourselves some beers
Still crazy after all these years
Oh Still crazy after all these years
So, sold about 28% of the portfolio equity in mid-February and bought ZROZ (AAA zero coupon bonds). Good call.....well, yes; to a point. Watched the profit become +15% due to COVID shutdown and then the equity market melt. I let this run too long and kept +5% profit. An, oh well.
'Course we're aware of the Fed backstop of "everything". Then the equity turn around.....my, what a CRAZY run!!!
My topic line here about an exit of AAA bonds found my concern with how many Treasury bonds were going to be issued and who the hell was going to buy........ AAA bond pricing was also fading away.
Here we are again, back into ZROZ............and yes; folks are buying most types of Fed. backed bonds........why not, eh???
Don't know about the equity sell down today (June 11). Perhaps a short lived rotation into whatever by the large players.
Excerpt from below link: The Fed also said it would maintain bond purchases at "the
current pace" of around $80 billion per month in Treasuries and
$40 billion per month in agency and mortgage backed securities.
Fed. Treasury purchases, etc.
NOTE: those holding managed, quality bond funds should discover decent returns, as of late.
Some day in the, future I/we will have to stop playing with the money this way.
I do believe I'm low on coffee intake.
Take care,
Catch

GLFOX is more like owning the railroads, electric company, and waterworks from Monopoly. All the infrastructure is already built. And half of that is utilities.
YTD performance is in the same league as Vanguard's utility index (VUIAX), but pays a 5.2 yield vs. 2.52. I have been a happy owner for five years in the IRA. And I added it to the taxable during the recent excitement.
While reviewing their portfolio I noticed they are nearly 18% cash.

I have noticed that since the first of April the price of copper is up about 18%. This is one of the reasons I recently opened my first of ususally a four step buy position in a commodity strategy fund (BCSAX).

VWINX most recently experienced a (-18.5 %) draw down (from its recent high on 2/21/2020) and a DD recovery of a little less than 4 months time (Feb - June). I spent some time today reviewing and comparing VWINX to other funds I own.
On a YTD basis many of my funds have returned to positive territory.
Allocation funds that I own that are positive YTD - PRWCX, VGSTX, VWINX - each roughly 2% positive
Allocation fund that is still negative - BRUFX - down 2%
Some other fund in the red YTD:
FRIFX - down 11% (riskier than I imagined)
THOPX - down 7.3% (Poor performance for what I consider a cash like fund)
FMIJX - down 16.8% (has had some recent big up days) - Toe hold
VMVFX - down 10.4% (this has been a surprise to me...very volatile recently)
POAGX - down 0.5% (Always surprises)
VHCOX - down 3.2%
VWO / VEIEX - down 9.3% - Toe Hold
Some funds in the black YTD:
VGHCX - up 3.9%
PRHSX - up 5.6%
FSRPX - up 11.4% (retail choices in this fund are far from dead)
FSMEX - up 2.6% (medical device companies have been good past performers)
PRMTX - up 19.95% (its recent DD was similar to VWINX, but its 100% Media and Tech)
PRGSX - up 8.6% (showing strong momentum from the bottom)
PRNHX - up 16.9% (wish...need to own more)
PRIDX - up 1.8% - Toe Hold
Cash like Funds YTD:
VFISX - up 3.3%
PRWBX - up 2.5%
PTIAX - up 0.1%
I try to identify and understand the downside risk (beta) in my holdings and getting more practice than I wish for. It is probably a more important dynamic than upside potential (alpha). Downside risk either bruises, cuts, or maims your portfolio. I'm trying to minimize the cutting and the maiming.
Anything surprising you in your portfolio?

Thanks @JohnN. Here's a related article on Muni Mutual Fund choices:
best-taxfree-income-funds

Demand is bouncing back in China and stimulus packages being unleashed across the developed world promise to transform the long-term outlook -- particularly with spending on copper-intensive green energy infrastructure. The coronavirus has also disrupted mines and delayed new builds, throttling current and future supply.
“Copper is coming out of this crisis differently,” Bintas said by phone from Geneva. “When lockdowns were eased and people started to return to work, we were surprised to see our customers not only taking deliveries of volumes they’d already bought, but requesting more to cover themselves in case there were any further disruptions to supply.”

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-06-10/new-king-of-copper-trading-sees-demand-coming-back-even-stronger?sref=g4EhC0E7
Do investors see GLFOX (Infrastructure funds ), VGPMX (Natural Resources/Precious Metals) funds and even VWO (VEIEX) (which seems to move when PMs move up & down with NR/PM) working again?
Next stimulus bill should include infrastructure projects.
Pro's & Cons for infrastructure stimulus:
case-against-infrastructure-stimulus
stimulus-checks-infrastructure-phase-four

A Muni-Bond Fund That Lets You Sleep at Night
By Debbie Carlson
June 10, 2020 7:00 am ET
Duane McAllister in Milwaukee.
https://www.google.com/search?q=A+Muni-Bond+Fund+That+Lets+You+Sleep+at+Night
By+Debbie+Carlson&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
/During his childhood, his family owned a construction company in northwest Illinois that installed water mains and constructed highways—the exact type of projects he now invests in as the senior portfolio manager for the $1.1 billion Baird Short-Term Municipal Bond fund (ticker: BTMSX). His first job after graduating in 1989 with a bachelor’s degree in finance from Northern Illinois University was with Northern Trust’s muni-bond team. At the time, he.../
https://www.google.com/search?q=BTMSX&oq=BTMSX&aqs=chrome..69i57j0.1288j0j7&sourceid=chrome-mobile&ie=UTF-8
Btmsx
Will keep it on watch list

@Baseball_Fan, Thanks for the shout-out. David mentioned Rondure Funds in his February, 2019
Commentary. Just a bit here: “Rondure Global Advisors is newer investment adviser which is Grandeur Peak’s partner. Rondure, like Grandeur Peak, was launched by an alumna of the Wasatch Funds,” https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2019/02/as-the-world-turns-rondure-global-gains/
Global equity funds are pretty far outside my normal investment zone. But I am now beginning to shade a bit more in that direction, since funds holding fixed income (like traditional balanced funds) are at a real disadvantage in this low rate environment. Also, I’ve been trying to get out of the U.S. (figuratively and literally) as I think we’re headed for a lot of chaos as November approaches - markets might not like it. U.S. appears “bubbly” as well.
My first foray into any pure equity fund in many years was into Price’s developed foreign markets index fund, PIEQX, which I picked up in March and have already reduced by 30 or 40%. While it hasn’t leaped very far, all my other stuff has, and this one is the easiest to cut back on as its a spec position and not part of my normal allocation. It’s not a high octane fund by any measure. But the ER of .40 is appealing and TRP - much as I like them - have never excelled in the international arena. Past experience leads me to believe that, as international funds go, this one is relatively docile.
You mention ROSOX. Let’s take a look. ER 1.10% isn’t bad for an actively managed international fund. Probably about average. Holdings: 60% Europe, 30% Asia - almost all of that in Japan. (Looks quite a bit like the index fund I own.) ROSOX is only 3 years old. That would normally chase me away - but it appears from David’s commentary that the managers are well experienced. Close call. I’d feel better with a fund that had been around at least 10 years. Better chance of having a stable investor base. The fund has already jumped about 10% from its March low. Not as cheap as it was than. (Woulda, coulda, shoulda.) Lipper gives it a 5 in “preservation.” That’s a coveted rating, as international funds tend to be more volatile than their domestic brethren. Not a bad choice. I’d perhaps look around a bit more before deciding.
Now, will folks more familiar with international equity funds and / or Rondure please chime in?

https://business.financialpost.com/pmn/business-pmn/stocks-soar-by-most-in-eight-years-on-signs-of-growth-em-review
EM Review: Stocks Soared by Most in 8 Years on Signs of Growth
Bloomberg News Lilian Karunungan, Netty Ismail and Justin Villamil
June 5, 2020 4:28 PM EDT
Last Updated June 8, 2020 1:36 AM EDT
/(Bloomberg) — Emerging-market stocks posted their biggest gains in more than eight years last week as investors looked past U.S.-China tensions and protests in America to focus on the rolling back of economic lockdowns. Better-than-expected U.S. jobs data on Friday helped solidify the new-found optimism over economic growth. Developing-nation currencies posted their biggest weekly advance since March 2016./
What are your favorite em funds or etf
We have adding/Dca continously to Vwo and Vt past few weeks.

Hi, guys.
This was a flagged discussion. The argument was that apkmetro plagiarized a Wall Street Journal article with only the sort of tweaks that a college sophomore could imagine getting away with. As I checked their homepage, their business model appears to depend on copying stuff from behind paywalls and posted tweaked versions.
It's pretty bad. I'd prefer we not associate with, much less encourage, them.
That said, johnN is pointing us to an article that makes valuable points, as the Journal often does. My compromise with my conscience is to share (a) the link to the legit story, (b) the intro paragraph and (c) the point of the article.
Alex Edmans, Why Many People Misunderstand Dividends, and the Damage This Does https://wsj.com/articles/why-many-people-misunderstand-dividends-and-the-damage-this-does-11591454292, Wall Street Journal, 7 June 2020.
Dr. Edmans is a professor of finance at London Business School.

Over the past year, voices across the corporate and political spectrum have argued that companies are beholden to all stakeholders, not just shareholders. And indeed, many companies are recognizing these responsibilities in the current pandemic, with several paying furloughed workers and donating products. Investors have largely supported those efforts. But when it comes to corporate responsibility, there’s one red line that many shareholders say should never be crossed: the dividend.

• companies are so manic about protecting their dividend that they're willing to cut workers in order to preserve it
  
• dividends don't benefit investors because they're simply pulling money out of the company and lowering its share price
  
• stock buybacks are different, and better, because buybacks are more flexible. You can execute them when it makes sense (Snowball laughs out loud given the transparent record of buying back overvalued shares in order to prop them up) and skip other years. Dividends are sort of a permanent entitlement.
  
• in consequence, companies do stupid things to guard the dividend, investors overpay for stocks offering a dividend (you can lose 2-4% per annum in total returns) and it encourages investor complacency because they see dividend-payers are "buy it and forget it" stocks.
  
• solutions? Have reporting services focus on total return, not share price appreciation, stats and have companies treat all future dividends as "special dividends," that is, as one time payouts that will be resumed if and only if economic circumstances justify it.

David, with thanks to johnN

@hank: There is talk of infrastructure spending and it's been going on since the 2016 presidential campaign, thus my skepticism. In my view, the US is unwilling to invest in infrastructure projects that don't pay for themselves. The wonderful high-speed trains in Europe and Asia do not make money, but they make for great travel and they preserve the environment. California's effort to build an HS train route has been trashed by the same administration that promised infrastructure spending. Very few states appear willing to privatize their toll roads even though it makes perfect sense to do so. BTW, was Mobius partly responsible for the many signals in the past decade or so to buy emerging markets?
Your comment on gold prompts me to say the physical gold we inherited in 2012 has had a "V" shaped recovery: it has gone from $1675 to $1275 and now back up to $1700+. It cost me more for the safe deposit box than my entire appreciation.

Investing EV ETFs:
etfs-for-the-inevitable-boom-in-self-driving-cars
new-etf-focuses-electric-vehicles

Other EV News:

Move over, Tesla Inc., another environmentally friendly vehicle maker is stealing your sunshine. Shares of Nikola Corp. leapt as much as 71% to a record in its third day of trading on the Nasdaq after a reverse merger with VectoIQ Acquisition Corp.

electric-truck-company-called-nikola-surged-71-in-its-third-day

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906352/000093041320001580/c95954_497.htm
Changes are in Investment Objective, Investment Strategy, Portfolio Manager Team, Advisory Fee Rate and Expense Limitations of the Fund, and Resignation of Subadviser