@expatsp
Yeah... had about 6 GREAT years of tax loss carryover... followed by @5 years of not so great capital gains in my brokerage account!

@LLJB,
Thanks, nice article. The ETFreplay site (mentioned in the article) allows users to backtest 5 etf for free.

wow, sorry to read all this; even Heebner has now done better 10/5/3/1/ytd

@expatsp.
Lucy recently woke me up from my sleep in the pumpkin patch and walked me into shelter. I've sold-out of FAAFX, which I first bought in 2011.
The experience is marked by much downside interrupted by very few upward periods.
Six years is not really a long time, but it sure feels like it with this fund! This allocation fund has existed entirely in a bull market.
The table below shows the sad numbers since inception through April (click on image to enlarge):

So far in May, FAAFX is down another 10%.
The firm has never touted "The Fairholme Effect" on performance charts for FAAFX.
DODBX, which I have owned since 2003, is now my longest holding.
Of the many fund investing mistakes I've made, including WBMIX and AQRIX, invariably because of misguided expectations, I think FAAFX is the most disappointing.
Expectations for the fund were built-on my favorable experience with FAIRX in 2000's, which I held from about 2002 through 2011.
But the two decades (or the two funds for that matter) don't compare. I examined them back in 2013 with Fairholme Fund (FAIRX) – What a Difference a Decade Makes, but I do not think it's improved much in the four years since, as evidenced in M*: Liquidity Risk Increases At Fairholme.
Which helps explain my disappointment. But four years ago, I wrote:

Yet, if I had to bet on one fund manager to deliver superior absolute returns over the long run, it would be Bruce Berkowitz. But many of us have come to learn, it’s gonna be a bumpy ride. Like some other deep value money managers, he may simply look beyond risk definitions as defined by modern portfolio theory…something fans of Fairholme may need to do also.

Good grief!
If I remember, Mr. Berkowitz stated during a Consuelo Mack interview on the eve of Trump's election that he can see light at end of tunnel ... and for a short time, it looked like maybe he did. But since about February, FAAFX is down another 20%, yet again.
Each quarter FAAFX reflects an ever increasing focus on extremely distressed, speculative, and illiquid securities.
Remember MBIA?
Remember St Joe?
Today, its Fannie/Freddie and SHLD.
Mr. Berkowitz hitched his wagon to Mr. Lambert and Mr. Mnuchin. I believe the latter was on SHLD's board while heading Trump's campaign finance committee, before becoming Treasury Secretary.
Has BB changed his stripes?
For years, he was heavy BRK and LUK.
The individuals behind all these entities are part of a billionaire's club: Lambert, Mnuchin, Buffet, and Cumming.
FAAFX is currently at $183M AUM, down substantially, half owned by Mr. Berkowitz. Flagship FAIRX is at $2.3B, about one tenth of peak.
Took me a while, as usual, but I'm joining kevindow, Sven, and others to be on sidelines going forward with Fairholme Capital Management, LLC.
Yesterday, SHLD popped 30% initially after a good earnings report, suspect short squeeze in play, but closed up "just" 14%. FAIRX and FAAFX jumped over 3%. But it is little solace to long-term investors.
This morning SHLD is down another 9%.
Maybe it's still possible for these bets to pay off.
Maybe it's just being part of what our friend Wes Gray calls "The Value Pain Train" and I've just fired god.
Maybe these really are the only deep-value investments, the "best ideas" Fairholme can find in the current elevated market.
But I don't think these are the investments that once earned Fairholme "Fund of the Decade" accolade or praise for being the next SEQUX (during its heyday).
So, after some 14 years investing with Fairholme, I'm out of the pumpkin patch and back in the crowd.
Hopefully, I've not disappointed you expatsp or other BB fans on the board. But if I have, my apologies. And if there are any friends still in FAAFX, I do hope the "Great Pumpkin" finally arrives.

FYI: Lewis Braham quoted Joe Saluzzi, a partner at institutional broker Themis Trading: “At some point, the SEC has to come in and say, ‘Enough is enough.’ This is a stock market, not a casino.”
Looks like it did.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.barrons.com/articles/no-quadruple-leveraged-etfs-for-you-1495806218

SFGIX. PRIDX. Down to 10% foreign equities. Letting them ride. I'm 36% in bonds of all types these days. I'm not looking to reduce that proportion which is already in bonds. Pretty happy with performance. PRIDX is almost evenly-split between Europe and Asia. SFGIX is 17% Latin America, 5% Emerging Europe, 6% Africa-Middle East and 72% Asia.

FYI: (This is a follow-up article)
The Department of Labor announced on Monday that its much-anticipated fiduciary rule -- or at least the lion’s share of its provisions -- would go into effect on June 9. In a nutshell, the rule prohibits brokers from taking money from mutual funds they recommend to clients unless they disclose those payments to their clients.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2017-05-25/calpers-shows-need-for-disclosures-like-fiduciary-rule

FYI: (I will link episode as soon as it becomes available, early Saturday morning.)
Regards,
Ted
May 25
Just about everywhere you look, America is awash in debt. U.S. households recently set a new record of indebtedness, $12.7 trillion, more than they owed at the height of the credit bubble in 2008
But context is everything. As last week’s WEALTHTRACK guest, Cornerstone Macro’s top ranked economist, Nancy Lazar told us, consumer debt is down significantly relative to disposable personal income at 88% of income vs. 115% in 2008, and savings rates are up.
Corporate debt is another story. It too has been growing significantly in recent years, but unlike more thrifty consumers, it is accelerating at a faster rate than revenues.
Corporate debt is more than 90% of revenues, a record during an expansion. And despite historically low interest rates, corporate interest expense is barely off its all- time high.
What about government debt? In 2016 total U.S. national debt was estimated at $22.5 trillion. The federal government accounted for the lion’s share, about $19.5 trillion. States had a little over $1 trillion and local governments nearly $2 trillion in debt. Again, context is everything. The last 10 years have seen federal debt skyrocket from about 60% of GDP in 2005 to over 100% of GDP, while state debt has held steady at 6%, and local government indebtedness has increased slightly, to a little over 10%.
There are always outliers. One of the biggest is in the municipal bond market. The largest issuer of tax free muni bonds by far is the U.S. territory of Puerto Rico.
With over $70 billion in bond obligations and $50 billion in unfunded pensions, Puerto Rico cannot meet its obligations and has gone to bankruptcy court. The outcome is yet to be determined.
This week’s WEALTHTRACK guests each manage several top rated mutual funds, investing in multiple types of bonds using different strategies. They also work together on the Fixed Income Team at Thornburg Investment Management. Thornburg is a WEALTHTRACK sponsor but their collective performance speaks for itself.
Jeff Klingelhofer is a portfolio manager on several Thornburg funds including its 5-star rated, Thornburg Limited Term Income Fund which uses a laddered strategy, investing in bonds with staggered maturities. He also manages the 4-star rated Thornburg Strategic Income Fund, which has a flexible mandate to invest anywhere in the world and in any kind of income producing security.
Our other guest is Nicholos Venditti, portfolio manager for several municipal bonds funds including the 5-star Thornburg Limited Term Municipal Fund, again using a laddered portfolio, and the 4-star Thornburg Strategic Municipal Income Fund which also has a broad, flexible approach.
We will discuss the state of the fixed income markets as a whole and the condition of different sectors specifically, as well as where they are investing and what they are avoiding. We will also get their very strong views on why the bond market does not lend itself to passive index investing. Yes, they are defending their profession but they also point out some key differences between stocks and bonds.
If you miss the show on television this week you can always catch it on our website. We also have an EXTRA report from another firm about why active is an advantage in bond investing. As always, we welcome your feedback. Click on the Contact Us link on our website, or connect with us on Facebook or Twitter.
On this Memorial Day weekend, please take a moment to remember those who have lost their lives in military service to our country. They sacrificed so that we could celebrate a holiday in freedom and peace with our loved ones. Make the week ahead a profitable and a productive one.
Best regards,
Consuelo
Video Clip:

utm_term=0_bf662fd9c0-606dd543f6-71656893
M* Snapshot THFIX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/thifx/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot THFIX:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/thifx
THIFX Is Ranked #17 In The (S-T B) Fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/short-term-bond/thornburg-limited-term-income-fund/thifx
M* Snapshot TSSAX:
http://www.morningstar.com/funds/XNAS/TSSAX/quote.html
Lipper Snapshot TSSAX:
http://www.marketwatch.com/investing/fund/tssax
TSSAX Is Ranked #57 In THe (MNI) fund Category By U.S. News & World Report:
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/muni-national-interm/thornburg-strategic-municipal-income-fd/tssax

I am holding SV with RYSEX, as I am not smart enough to move in and out of asset classes!

My stupid principles keep me away from companies like WF, and serial fund creators like Royce, while they have refrained of doing this off late. Still they are owned by Legg Mason.
If I ever feel like investing in dedicated small cap value fund, I'll probably go with big names like Fido, Vanguard, TRP. Bridgeway small and micro may be as well.

Around half of SP500 earnings are overseas-related

That is one of the reason why Warren Buffet recommends low cost S&P 500 index funds for most folks.

The jobs that command the highest wages are in STEM – science, technology, engineering and math professions. STEM workers are earning an average of $100,000 annually, twice as much as the national average of $45,000 to $50,000 a year, Cohen said.

If that is the case, why is there not more Americans getting college degrees in STEM and the positions are often filled with foreign workers?

I like your thoughts on "portfolio insurance"! The key to finding adequate investment vehicles, IMHO, to truly satisfy this requirement is COST! Some are fortunate to have access to the G Fund inside the TSP. G Fund price only moves in one direction...UP! This satisfies my requirement for portfolio protection for pennies on the dollar! @15% of my investment portfolio.

It would be very cool to see what CAPE held and when wrt being in and out of those 5

I'm more interested right now in timing overweighting small value. Using PVFIX as my barometer. If even PVFIX is going down, I'm not touching any other SV. While I will admit, like I've said before, small+energy is actually hitting PVFIX hard.
If it is one thing I've learnt it is to be patient. I did do some movement around S&P 500 in my IRAs. Overweighted international switching some money to target funds. Eliminated Mid Cap Value, and overweighted growth with TRP Inst LG Growth (symbol escapes me).
I have "Jennison Private Account" or some such fund. Thinking might be close to HACAX, but I don't like investing in funds without ticker.
In an IRA I'm overweighting using TRBCX. I still have some money in cash because my ANALysis says Mid/Small is rolling over. So not fully invested.
PS - 275 Pound New York ....WTF? Mail Chauvinist Pig OverTheHill (MCPO)? I really need to understand your Nick...

FYI: The market has seemed pretty top-heavy lately. We think the concerns around weak breadth have been a little bit overstated, though, as we mentioned in our Chart of the Day yesterday. But it’s still worth asking the question: how much of the market’s gain is attributable to the largest stocks? Below we show three series. The light blue line is returns for the S&P 500 YTD. In the dark blue line, we strip out the performance contribution of the five largest stocks in the S&P 500: Apple (AAPL), Facebook (FB), Amazon (AMZN), Microsoft (MSFT), and Alphabet (GOOGL). As shown, while the overall index is up almost 8% so far in 2017, it’s up only 4.6% if you strip out the five largest stocks. In the red series below we show the spread between the two, in other words, the cumulative performance contribution from those 5 stocks. At the start of the year, these five stocks accounted for 11.6% of the index’s market cap, so you’d expect a non-trivial percentage of gains to come from them. That share stands at about 13.7% today. Generating nearly half of the index’s gains with less than 15% of its market cap is an out-sized contribution and shows just how painful it can be in terms of relative performance if you’ve been underweight these mega-Tech behemoth
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/five-largest-stocks-account-for-nearly-half-of-2017s-gains/

FYI: BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) will initially pay about $60 per square foot in rent for its future headquarters in the Hudson Yards district on the far west side of midtown Manhattan, the company said in a filing on Thursday.
BlackRock, which oversees $5.4 trillion in assets and is the world's largest asset manager, is moving into 847,000 square feet (78,690 sq meters) of a development that will be part of a neighborhood rising over rail yards and tracks in a once-forlorn corner of New York City.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-property-hudsonyards-blackrock-idUSKBN18L2BY?feedType=RSS&feedName=businessNews&utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=feed&utm_campaign=Feed:+reuters/businessNews+(Business+News)

FYI: With Alphabet (GOOGL) and Amazon (AMZN) racing tick for tick towards the $1,000/share level but coming up just shy today, we just can’t help but be reminded of another run towards the 1,000 milestone 51 years ago. For the sake of the two stocks and the overall market, though, we hope that this time around, the $1,000 level isn’t nearly as tough a nut to crack. The battle for 1,000 we are talking about from 51 years ago was the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Back in 1966, after a rally of nearly 20% off of its June 1965 lows, the DJIA was knocking on the door of 1,000 but came up just shy of the mark, closing at 995.15 on 2/9/66. While the DJIA didn’t cross 1,000 on February 9th, we can’t help but think that most people felt it was just a matter of time before the 1,000 level was breached.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/alphabet-and-amazon-bring-back-ghosts-of-1000s-past/

Yes, even SHLD recovered a bit ... up 30% at one point today, only to fall back 16% to gaining "just" 14%. I believe yesterday too it was up 5% early only to close with a loss.
But not a lot of solace I suspect for long-time holders ...

FYI: U.S. stocks rose on Thursday, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite hitting new highs, helped by gains in the consumer discretionary sector after strong reports from Best Buy and other retailers.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-24/asia-stocks-look-mixed-as-dollar-slips-on-fed-markets-wrap
Reuters:
http://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks-idUSKBN18L1HC
MarketWatch:
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stocks-poised-for-6-wins-in-a-row-but-opec-lies-in-wait-2017-05-25/print
IBD:
http://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/bullish-session-beefy-gains-netflix-gaps-up-ulta-spikes-after-close/
CNBC:
http://www.cnbc.com/2017/05/25/us-markets.html
AP:
http://hosted.ap.org/dynamic/stories/F/FINANCIAL_MARKETS?SITE=AP
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2017-05-25/today-s-top-stories-a-secret-plot-to-sell-banned-oil
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
http://markets.wsj.com/us
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR'S Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures: Positive
http://finviz.com/futures.ashx

HY Bonds are not confirming the recent uptick in the S&P 500. In fact they are indicating a pull back in equities.

The SP500 has rebounded from the May 17 one-day panic to push to a higher high. But high-yield bond ETFs like HIO are not confirming that higher high, and that’s a problem.
High yield bonds typically move in sync with the stock market rather than with T-Bonds. They are all about liquidity and default risk, much more so than inflation and other interest rates. So when liquidity starts to dry up, that condition often shows up first in the high-yield bond market. Eventually those liquidity problems come around to bite the rest of the stock market. So it is important to pay attention to these divergences.

Source:
mcoscillator.com/learning_center/weekly_chart/junk_bonds_dont_confirm_higher_highs/