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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • FOMC Statement, 11/7/24
    A reporter asked about rising breakeven inflation rate, but Powell said that he isn't worried yet. Here are 5-yr and 10-yr breakeven inflation rates - they are approaching the levels seen in 04/2024.
    https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=1zzGy
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Income Fund (retail share class available 10/31)
    Is it worth the bit of extra work? Personal decision, I guess.
    That applies to any mechanism or platform. If you're willing to use Firstrade, CBLDX is available ($5K min, $100 additional) without a fee. Or you could invest directly with CrossingBridge.
    Is it worth the effort? Up to you.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    I've been purchasing RSIIX for our IRA and Joint accounts through our TRP Brokerage accounts without a fee, but TRP, at least for now, is charging a $35 fee to purchase NRDCX. Any ideas on whether the fee eventually goes away? Is this normal when a new fund is introduced on a brokerage platform?
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Income Fund (retail share class available 10/31)
    Over the course of a year the extra .25 ER amounts to an additional $125 in fees.
    Buy the $50,000 in institutional shares and smaller amounts in the retail shares and then down the road look to convert the money in the retail shares to the institutional shares. Is it worth the bit of extra work? Personal decision, I guess.
  • FOMC Statement, 11/7/24
    FOMC Statement, 11/7/24
    https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20241107a.htm
    Video - Powell's presser starts at 59:00

    Notes by YBB
    Rates were cut 25 bps - fed funds 4.50-4.75%, bank reserves rate 4.65%, discount rate 4.75%. Treasury QT continues at the reduced level of -$25 billion/mo, but MBS QT remains at -$35 billion/mo.
    Rates are on a declining path to a lower but unknown "neutral" rate, but rate cuts cannot be projected beyond that, nor could rate increases be ruled out. The current rates are restrictive - the labor market has cooled down, but inflation remains problematic when looking at 3m, 6m, 12m PCE changes (i.e. don't just focus on 12m changes). There are catchups in prices in housing services, insurance premiums, some wages, etc, so those are affecting some inflation readings. The Fed wants to avoid stagflation (slow growth, high inflation, high unemployment); it will also not persistently undershoot its +2% average inflation target.
    Higher bond and mortgage yields after the last Fed rate cut may be due to strong economy and/or investors' concerns about high annual deficits and total debt. He said that those may be manageable now, but their rising trend is unsustainable.
    The US economy is in a good shape now. But many people are not happy with their financial situations. It may take some time to adjust to higher prices and to realize that lower inflation doesn't mean lower prices.
    Powell didn't want to comment on elections. But he said that elections don't affect the Fed policy in the near-term. The administration and congressional policies may affect Fed's actions in the long-term. The Fed has a large economic model and many inputs go into it including fiscal and tax policies. He said that he won't resign if asked and said further that any such efforts would not be permitted under the law. He also declined to address the issue of Fed independence.
    Geopolitical risks remain although those haven't impacted the US economy so far.
    Note - Due to a prior commitment, these notes were prepared by watching the tape of Powell's presser after the event, so they weren't posted as timely as is typical.
  • CrossingBridge Low Duration High Income Fund (retail share class available 10/31)
    What makes more sense? $50,000 (plus $49.95 fee) into CBLDX (ER of 0.91%), or $50,000 (no fee) into CBLVX (ER of 1.16%). Probably would be a long holding time. The advantage of CBLVX would allow additional investments without a fee. The bottom line is, does the extra .25 expense mean that much?
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    According to Morningstar data, two funds now report owning: Fidelity Nasdaq Composite ETF and Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF (KRUZ). The Fidelity fund is boring and predictable. Unusual Whales is sort of intriguing.
    "Unusual Whales is an affordable options and equity data platform . . . they have started a reinvigorated effort on how lobbying, committee conflicts and finance changes Congress." With the Unusual Whales Subversive Republican Trading ETF, which tracks the stock trading disclosures of Republican members of Congress, you can invest right alongside the folks with the indefensible conflicts of interest! The ticker for the Democratic version is NANC. As in Ted Cruz and Nancy Pelosi as our inspirations.
    The site reports "Unusual Whales has reported on political trading and worked on this ETF with the hope of getting the practice banned all together."
    Since launch, by the way, the Democrats are kicking red butt: up 41.73% since inception (February 2023) versus up 22.53% for the Republicans. Top Republican holding: Comfort Systems USA, a provider of mechanical contracting services. (Why?) The Dems are a big Mag 7 crowd.
    I think it's time this thread was moved to the off-topic forum.
    YMMV.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @BaluBalu: thanks for the idea. I had not thought of contacting a company about offering a new fund. The outperformance of the Composite Index may very well due to the Mag 7 and other high-fliers being well represented. History tells us that these stocks can’t stay on a tear forever. I wish I understood better how various weighting schemes work and how (hypothetically) one could recommend one or the other method to employ for a new fund. Unfortunately, I’m a humanités guy, weak in math.
    MOAT had only one stumble shortly after it began trading, the methodology and reconstitution rules got tweaked, and success followed. It then outperformed the S&P 500 for many years and I was really pleased. I thought recent travails were temporary, but I’ve lost faith. Sounds as though you have substantial gains. I try to tell myself that gains are a good thing and that some of them will be offset by the sales of my bone-headed choices.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    ..how stupid did they think Americans are?
    Biden/Harris has left this country in rough shape...and world in rough shape...Trump and his excellent team has their work cut out for them.
    Parroting the con man's rhetoric.
    Roughly 50% of Americans are stupid. They fell for the con. He will not help the common man - but he will help the rich. He lies and lies and lies some more.....and you just picked the ones you wanted to believe.
    There is a reason why he dominates the heartland of America. You have to be gullible to fall for his BS.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Can you imagine heading up a household with a wife and a couple kids...trying to put food on the table, raising your kids in safe neighborhood with decent schools..price of everything from groceries, insurance, mortgages going thru the roof due to the Biden/Harris policies, layoffs going on at work...and here comes Krugman and Biden/Harris and other smug elites telling you everything is great, never mind your lying eyes...sheet...Biden/Harris telling you the job market is great..never mind it is all DEI govt hires and Uber drivers...
    And here is comrade Harris picking arguably the biggest communist fruit she could have picked for a VP...and trying to tell you she is more of a centrist...ya right....never telling you her views and wanting you to believe she has changed...how stupid did they think Americans are?
    And ya, let's hand out more monies/freebies...$25k for a house, more student debt cancellation, give black men monies to start a cannabis shop..like they aren't smart enough to start another type of business ..lawfare...suppression of free speech and expression...did you see how Google tried to suppress the Joe Rogan/Trump Interview...oy vey so obvious...Biden/Harris trying to enforce a mandatory experimental jab on everyone..taxing unrealized capital gains...are you shitting me? On and on.
    Trump not only smoked Harris, he beat the uber liberal university prof's brainwashing our children, the media, the likes of the NY Times, Google, etc...except for Twitter X, thank god for Elon...he beat all the musicians...actors...
    Biden/Harris has left this country in rough shape...and world in rough shape...Trump and his excellent team has their work cut out for them.
    I'll sum up like when I picked up my car at the garage yesterday evening...the mechanics and the shop owner were winding up their day...and a clip of Harris came on...one of the mechanics said out loud afterwards..."Get the FUCK out of my White House and take the Marshmallow with you..as quickly as possible."
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    It's about going to the middle.
    Lastly, the Dems should stop persecuting Trump everywhere and all the time. Enough is enough.
    So let a convicted felon go unchecked. Just give him carte blanche. Let him shoot somebody on 5th avenue. "When you are a star, they let you do it. You can do anything. Grab them by the p...y".
    This is why the Cult of Trump is not respected. Some of us see him for the con man/perp that he really is. WHY DOES HE GET A PASS ON THIS????
    He stacked the court system with his judges (for example, see one AILEEN CANNON). He will now get his loyalists into positions of power, and Project 25 rolls out. There is no middle. There will be Trump loyalists blindly following his wacky agenda, and a mostly unchecked GOP.
    If he follows through on tariffs, the economy is sunk. Plain and simple. Ironic, in that the parrots keep chirping about how great he will be with the economy.
    Blame the Dems for this mess, they pivoted from Biden just in time...only to land another weak candidate. Harris ran a timid campaign, even though she could out-debate Orange.
    Opportunity lost, and we will all pay the price.
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/6/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 11/6/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (41.5%, above average) & bearish became the bottom sentiment (27.6%, below average); neutral became the middle sentiment (31.9%, average); Bull-Bear Spread was +13.9% (above average). Investor concerns: Budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (141+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (56+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil up, gold down, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 62.80% (positive). Strong post-election bounce; WH-Trump, Senate-Republican, House-pending. The Fed may cut rates later today. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1725/thread
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    And 72,389,776 people… The popular vote was a landslide.

    A 3% differential is usually not referred to as a landslide. But hey, whatever narrative works for you.

    Kamala 67,878,826 votes
    Trump 72,560,841 votes
    I get 6.9%. Yes, it works for me.
    Seems the KH supporters here are mostly sore losers. I hope everyone is pulling for Trump to succeed, but I suspect you would like him to fail. But I would not make the fatal mistake of disparaging her supporters.
    chang, yes, of course, we are pulling for Trump to succeed. As a good American would do, didn't Trump pull for Biden to succeed?
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    From Ed Yardeni today:
    "We're sticking with our investment recommendation to Stay Home rather than to Go Global. In other words, overweight the US in global stock portfolios.
    For now, we're also sticking with our subjective probabilities for the following three scenarios: Roaring 2020s (50%), 1990s-style stock market meltup (20%), and 1970s-style geopolitical crisis with a possible US debt crisis (30%). But we are considering raising the odds of the Roaring 2020s scenario as a looser regulatory environment and lower corporate and income taxes under Trump 2.0 should boost investment and propel productivity-led economic growth."
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    So, I went to BB and saw the following discussion from today:
    Poster Win1177 posted,
    "I was surprised by the outcome and vote. I thought Harris had momentum and enough women who were “pissed off”/ incensed by Trump that they would vote against him. Boy was I WRONG!
    But it is what it is, we have to live with the outcome, although I (as a physician) am VERY worried by some of his proposals, such as putting RF Kennedy in “charge” of DHHS! Talk about a dangerous move! He will withhold important vaccines that have saved millions of lives! Diphtheria, Tetanus, measles, mumps, rubella, polio, etc. Not good for our future!
    Win"
    Win is a physician with a specialty and was a respected Prof at a Medical School before retiring. Win does not seem to have a history of making controversial or partisan posts.
    Chang's swift reply,
    "win1177 Please tone down the rhetoric. RFK is not in favor of taking away anyone’s vaccines- you can Google his statements on this. What you claimed is false. Also, I know several physicians who would like Fauci investigated for possible perjury to Congress: physicians as a group are hardly united in their views."
    I think I will stay at MFO.
    The relevant BB thread is https://big-bang-investors.proboards.com/thread/3485/
    You do not need to be a member to read any of the Proboards forums.
  • Credit cards and brokerages
    For @msf and others interested in CC travel insurance, just came across this:
    Credit Card Travel Insurance Study
    In summary, according to their metrics, out of 98 cards top 3 are:
    1. Chase Sapphire Reserve - best for Travel Accident Insurance
    2. Bank of America Premium Rewards Elite - best for Luggage Insurance
    3. Chase Sapphire Preferred - best for Trip Delay / Cancellation Insurance
    Best Overall Travel Insurance Coverage: Chase Sapphire Reserve
    Sapphire Reserve has a number of perks (such as airport lounge access) above those of Sapphire Preferred. Between that, a higher travel points multiplier (3x vs 2x for travel booked outside of Chase Travel), and a higher point redemption multiplier (1.5x vs 1.25x) for travel purchased through Chase Travel with points, it might be worth the extra $200/year cost (net, after various credits) if you travel extensively.
    But ISTM that travel accident insurance, whether $1M with Reserve or $500K with Preferred, has little value. It's like the overpriced flight accident insurance you used to be able to buy through vending machines in airports.
    the business model simply depreciated because air travel came to be perceived as so safe and routine, it eliminated any demand for pre-travel life insurance.
    https://www.insurancebusinessmag.com/us/news/breaking-news/a-look-back-whatever-happened-to-airport-insurance-vending-machines-22593.aspx
    IMHO the core value of the Sapphire cards is the cancellation/interruption insurance. That's not cheap. What is cheap and as @BenWP wrote above has real value, is medical insurance and medevac insurance. As one gets older (i.e. reaching Medicare age), one is likely to already be covered for medical services (Medigap Plans C, D, F, G, M, N or many Part C policies). For medical/medevac, try shopping through SquareMouth.
    Costs can come in around $100/couple/trip (or higher). Several hundred $$$ more with cancellation/interruption coverage. We've used Trawick via SquareMouth (and filed a claim). Unfortunately, Trawick seems to have dropped their least expensive plan.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    And 72,389,776 people… The popular vote was a landslide.

    A 3% differential is usually not referred to as a landslide. But hey, whatever narrative works for you.

    Kamala 67,878,826 votes
    Trump 72,560,841 votes
    I get 6.9%. Yes, it works for me.
    Seems the KH supporters here are mostly sore losers. I hope everyone is pulling for Trump to succeed, but I suspect you would like him to fail. But I would not make the fatal mistake of disparaging her supporters.
    @chang, For a guy that runs (owns?) a forum (BB), more is expected of you. You are giving a bad name to gracious winners.
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    And 72,389,776 people… The popular vote was a landslide.

    A 3% differential is usually not referred to as a landslide. But hey, whatever narrative works for you.
    Kamala 67,878,826 votes
    Trump 72,560,841 votes
    I get 6.9%. Yes, it works for me.
    Seems the KH supporters here are mostly sore losers. I hope everyone is pulling for Trump to succeed, but I suspect you would like him to fail. But I would not make the fatal mistake of disparaging her supporters.
  • Roundhill S&P Global Luxury and Alerian LNG ETFs will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1683471/000089418924006631/roundhillluxxlngg497eliqui.htm
    497 1 roundhillluxxlngg497eliqui.htm 497 ROUNDHILL LUXX & LNGG SUPPLEMENT
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-215588; 811-23226
    Supplement dated November 6, 2024
    to the
    Roundhill S&P Global Luxury ETF (LUXX)
    Roundhill Alerian LNG ETF (LNGG)
    Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and Statement of Additional Information,
    each dated April 30, 2024, as supplemented
    each, a series of Listed Funds Trust
    After careful consideration, and at the recommendation of Roundhill Financial Inc., the investment adviser to the Roundhill S&P Global Luxury ETF and the Roundhill Alerian LNG ETF (each, a “Fund,” and collectively, the “Funds”), the Board of Trustees of Listed Funds Trust approved the closing and subsequent liquidation of the Funds pursuant to the terms of a Plan of Liquidation. Accordingly, the Funds are expected to cease operations, liquidate their assets, and distribute the liquidation proceeds to shareholders of record on or about November 29, 2024 (the “Liquidation Date”). Shares of the Funds are listed on the NYSE Arca, Inc.
    Beginning on or about November 6, 2024 and continuing through the Liquidation Date, the Funds will liquidate their portfolio assets. As a result, during this period, the Funds will increase their cash holdings and deviate from their investment objectives, investment strategies, and investment policies as stated in the Funds’ Prospectuses and SAI.
    The Funds will no longer accept orders for new creation units after the close of business on the business day prior to the Liquidation Date (November 27, 2024), and trading in shares of the Funds will be halted prior to market open on the Liquidation Date. Prior to the Liquidation Date, shareholders may only be able to sell their shares to certain broker-dealers, and there is no assurance that there will be a market for the Funds’ shares during that time period. Customary brokerage charges may apply to such transactions.
    If no action is taken by a Fund shareholder prior to the Liquidation Date, each Fund will distribute to such shareholder, on or promptly after the Liquidation Date, a liquidating cash distribution equal to the net asset value of the shareholder’s applicable Fund shares as of the close of business on the Liquidation Date. This amount will include any accrued capital gains and dividends. Shareholders remaining in the Funds on the Liquidation Date will not be charged any transaction fees by the Funds. The liquidating cash distribution to shareholders will be treated as payment in exchange for their shares. The liquidation of your shares may be treated as a taxable event. Shareholders should contact their tax adviser to discuss the income tax consequences of the liquidation.
    Shareholders can call (800) 617-0004 for additional information.
    Please retain this supplement with your Summary Prospectus, Prospectus, and
    Statement of Additional Information for future reference.