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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • E*Trade Cuts Fees Too; Active Traders Win This Round
    FYI: For the record, Charles Schwab (SCHW) took the first shot last month when it reduced trade commission on online stock and exchange-traded fund trades earlier this month. Fidelity undercut Schwab this week by slashing its fee to $4.95, which turned into an all out brawl among the online brokers. Schwab matched Fidelity’s price. TD Ameritrade (AMTD) knocked down its price.
    And it’s not over!
    E*Trade Financial (ETFC) just announced that effective March 13, it would charge $6.95 instead of $9.99. It also introduced an active trading program and pricing tier for those who do more than 30 trades per quarter, which is lower than the 150+ trades it required to qualify for the “active trading tier.” CEO Karl Roessner made a statement about how investors “experience” matters more than price. You can read it here if you want.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2017/03/02/etrade-cuts-fees-too-active-traders-win-this-round/tab/print/
  • Sixth Best Start To March On Record
    FYI: The S&P 500’s 1.37% gain yesterday was the sixth best start to March (1st trading day of the month) in the index’s history. Below is a quick table highlighting all 1%+ gains on the first trading day of March for the S&P 500 since 1928.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/sixth-best-start-to-march-on-record/
  • David Snowball's March Commentary Is Now Available
    For what interest it holds, the manager - who came onboard in 2005 - seems entirely sympathetic to your complaints about the funds though, given that his dad founded the firm he needs to be a bit circumspect.
    His argument, I think, is that the funds were once 100% pedal to the metal: buy great, growing companies and hold them, volatility be damned. The results were great, until they weren't.
    His addition to the discipline seems to be the macro overlay: start with the question of whether you should be seeking to embrace or withdraw from risk first, then look at the best options within that strategic vision.
    If you look at 2000-02, before his time, the fund lost 88% - 5000 basis points more than its peers and took 14 years to record.
    Compared that to 2007-09, when he was in charge. The fund lost 54%, 400 basis points more than its peers but had fully recovered by April 2010.
    During the current upcycle, it's maximum drawdown was 20.8%, 100 basis points more than its peers and it bounced back far more quickly than they did.
    To be clear: the fund is more aggressive than I am, so I'm not ever likely to add it to my personal holdings. That having been said, (1) it's not his father's Pin Oak and (2) it's an interesting answer to the "where can I get market-beating returns?" question. It feels like investors put managers in an incredible bind: they flee from active funds because they don't beat the ETFs and flee from active funds because they do, apparently in the belief that ETFs offer ...
    Hmmmm.
    In any case, I did approach Pin Oak with consider caution and skepticism. The combination of the numbers and the story convinced me that folks who dislike my normal conservatism (Intrepid Endurance at 70% cash, RiverPark Short-Term at 3% and FPA Crescent at 45% bonds and cash) would like the opportunity to consider the alternative.
    As ever,
    David
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Dow Poised To Keep Head Above 21,000 After 303-Point Surge
    Good morning,
    Yesterday the S&P 500 Index closed at another record setting high of 2,295.96 with the U S 10 year yielding 2.458%. The three best performing sectors were financial, energy and materials.
    In checking the markets as I write this morning Asia-Pacific is mixed with Australia, Japan and Singapore being up. In Europe France and Italy are up. In the States the futures are indicating stocks to be down and government bonds up.
    Old_Skeet's market barometer reflects readings that have not been seen before. I developed the market barometer and my equity weighting matrix to help me throttle my equity allocation (within certain ranges) within my portfolio.
    The barometer consist of three feeds. They are a breath feed which is a measure of how many stocks within the S&P 500 Index are above (percent wise) the 200 day moving average. The second feed is a fundamental feed consisting of both TTM reported earnings and forward estimates. The third feed is a technical score feed consisting of the RSI and MFI readings.
    I usually run floors and ceilings on each feed. With the floors in place the barometer has a reading of 130. With the floor stops removed the barometer has a reading of 112. The feeds below their floor stops are the breath feed and technical strength feed. Remember, the lower the barometer reading the less value there is to be had in the Index while a higher reading indicates more value. For reference purposes the barometer had a reading on election day of 162 indicating stocks were undervalued (just short of being oversold) and a reading of 157 when Trump took office, still at this point, a touch undervalued.
    Since, the barometer is producing unprecedented low readings that I have not seen before makes me wonder what is really up with this market. In reading many thoughts and drawing my own conclusion here is what I have come up with. Since year-over-year reported earnings are up strongly and forward estimates have been on the rise with little downward revisions, thus far this year, investors are willing to pay premium prices for stocks because of their earnings outlook.
    I have read where the carry trade is very favorable at this time and with this a lot of foreign money has been coming to the States along with some retail investors now beginning to buy stocks and perhaps sell off some of their bonds. Whoevery is buying has now bid stock prices to elevated levels and thus extended the markets.
    So, what is Old_Skeet going to do? Usually, and in the past, I have followed my barometer and equity weighting matrix and would have reduced my allocation to equities pursuant to matrix readings. This year, I decided to ride the Trump rally and I am now fining myself overweight equities by 10% over what the barometer and equity weighting matrix are calling for. With this, I have decided to continue to ride the rally through March or until I see my technical score feed starting to break down. In addition, I will probally, monitor the slow stoch and MACD as well.
    In the nearterm, Old_Skeet is looking to reduce his allocation to equities by coming in alignment with what my barometer and equity weighting matrix are calling for. Since, March has historically been a good month for stocks I am not ready just yet to start my rebalance process but stand ready to move should I feel conditions warrant.
    Because, I am doing this does not mean you should. I'm stronly up and well above my normal equity allocation but just short of its ceiling. Based upon this it will soon be time for me to start a rebalnce process anyway but I'm going to give March a go.
    I'll be leaving today and traveling through Sunday. I most likely will not be able to write much but plan to check the board when time permits.
    Thanks for reading ... and, I plan to be back on Monday, Tuesday at the latest.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Sure sign of Market Top / Impending DOOM!
    @Old_Skeet said on Tue the Feb 21st
    Should it continue to drop and reach a reading of 135 then the Index (stocks) will have moved from overvalued to overbought by the barometer.
    All of the barometer's feeds with the exception of the earnings feed have the Index overbought and if it were not for the forward earnings outlook and an improvement in TTM earnings the barometer would reflect the Index to be extremely overbought.
    Today @Old_Skeet said
    The earnings feed is keeping the barometer reading propped up. The barometer reading with the floors in place is 130 and when the floor is removed letting the readings float then the barometer reading drops to 112. ***
    ***That may put it in irrational exuberance territory!
    It had become a catchphrase of the boom to such an extent that, during the economic recession that followed the stock market collapse of 2000, bumper stickers reading "I want to be irrationally exuberant again" were sighted in Silicon Valley and elsewhere.
    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irrational_exuberance
    P.S. O_S, please consider posting your "The Markets and More ..." in a separate post.It sometimes gets lost in someone's exuberance to post... and post...and post...etc..etc.
  • Schooner Hedged Alternative Income Fund to liquidate
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1141819/000089418917001178/schooner-tpm_497e.htm
    497 1 schooner-tpm_497e.htm SUPPLEMENTARY MATERIALS
    Filed pursuant to Rule 497(e)
    Registration Nos. 333-62298; 811-10401
    Schooner Hedged Alternative Income Fund
    A series of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”)
    Supplement dated March 1, 2017
    to the Prospectus, Summary Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information dated September 28, 2016
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Trust for Professional Managers (the “Trust”), based upon the recommendation of Schooner Investment Group, LLC (the “Adviser”), the investment adviser to the Schooner Hedged Alternative Income Fund (the “Fund”), a series of the Trust, has determined to close and liquidate the Fund. The Board concluded that it would be in the best interests of the Fund and its shareholders that the Fund be closed and liquidated as a series of the Trust effective as of the close of business on March 31, 2017 (the “Liquidation Date”).
    The Board approved a Plan of Liquidation (the “Plan”) that determines the manner in which the Fund will be liquidated. Pursuant to the Plan and in anticipation of the Fund’s liquidation, the Fund will be closed to new purchases, except for purchases made through an automatic investment program, effective as of the close of business on March 1, 2017, and the Fund’s assets may be entirely invested in money market instruments or held in cash. Accordingly, the Fund will no longer be investing according to its investment objective. However, any distributions declared to shareholders of the Fund after March 1, 2017 and until the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on the Liquidation Date will be automatically reinvested in additional shares of the Fund unless a shareholder specifically requests that such distributions be paid in cash. Although the Fund will be closed to new purchases as of March 1, 2017, you may continue to redeem your shares of the Fund after March 1, 2017, as described in “How to Redeem Shares” in the Fund’s Prospectus.
    Pursuant to the Plan, if the Fund has not received your redemption request or other instruction prior to the close of business on the Liquidation Date, your shares will be redeemed, and you will receive proceeds representing your proportionate interest in the net assets of the Fund as of the Liquidation Date, subject to any required withholdings. As is the case with any redemption of fund shares, these liquidation proceeds will generally be subject to federal and, as applicable, state and local income taxes if the redeemed shares are held in a taxable account and the liquidation proceeds exceed your adjusted basis in the shares redeemed. If the redeemed shares are held in a qualified retirement account such as an IRA, the liquidation proceeds may not be subject to current income taxation under certain conditions. You should consult with your tax adviser for further information regarding the federal, state and/or local income tax consequences of this liquidation that are relevant to your specific situation.
    The Adviser will bear all of the expenses incurred in carrying out the Plan.
    Shareholder inquiries should be directed to the Fund at 1-866-724-5997.
    Please retain this Supplement with your Prospectus, Summary Prospectus
    and Statement of Additional Information for reference.
  • Even Buffett admits it
    Merriman is soon to release a "motif like" all in one fund to replicate his 13 small slice portfolio which allocates among all sectors stocks and bonds domestic and international. His work is based on DFA research. According to him, this portfolio outperformed S&P500 substantially over the last 45 years.
    Vanguard's position (which I respect) on Int'l allocation as follows:
    https://www.bogleheads.org/wiki/Vanguard_four_fund_portfolio
  • Fidelity Commission Lowered For Trades
    While I too would like to the the OEF TFs reduced, Fidelity already makes it possible to increase positions in TF funds for $5, and to sell positions at no cost.
    That likely makes it the least expensive brokerage for OEF round trips. (I am disregarding WellsTrade here, as (a) it is Wells Fargo, and (b) its no fee schedule is not available for new accounts.)
    In addition, Fidelity did lower its fee by 1/3 about four years ago, a price drop that Schwab declined to match.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/8170/fidelity-lowers-its-transaction-fee-for-tf-funds
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Wall Street Stocks Set To Resume Rally On Fed Rate-Hike Hopes, Trump Relief
    Major Asset Classes | February 2017 | Performance Review | Rising tide for risk assets CapitalSpectator.com
    The Russell 3000 Index climbed 3.7% in total-return terms, marking the index’s fourth straight monthly increase. In close pursuit: US real estate investment trusts (REITs), which rebounded after a flat January. The MSCI REIT Index climbed 3.5% in February, posting its second-best monthly advance since last August.
    image
    http://www.capitalspectator.com/major-asset-classes-february-2017-performance-review/
  • Paul Katzeff: Fidelity Slashes Online Stock, ETF Commission To $4.95, A 38% Cut
    Trading iShares ETF is free of commission. What I like to see to another round of reduction in purchasing Transaction Fee funds to $10 instead of $49.95.
    As for individual stocks, I don't trade enough to enjoy to make it worthwhile.
  • Mom And Pop Investors Are Behind This Historic Market Rally
    FYI: You can thank the little guy for Dow 20,000.
    That’s the takeaway from data tracking money flows into and out of stocks, according to an analysis by JPMorgan Chase & Co.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.fa-mag.com/news/mom-and-pop-investors-are-behind-this-historic-market-rally-31566.html?print
  • Expect An ‘Avalanche’ Of Selling When This Market Breaks, Says “Dr Doom”
    Hi @VintageFreak and others,
    I also harvest some of my capital gains along the way each year so they want go to waste during a stock market correction. The amount I take each varries based upon a target income amount I shoot to achieve each year from my portfolio. The twenty percent that you shoot for each year is more in the range of 5% to 10% for me. This is one of the ways that helps me maintain a high cash level within my portfolio (capital gain harvest).
    Take care and I enjoy reading your post.
    Old_Skeet
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Wall Street Stocks Set To Resume Rally On Fed Rate-Hike Hopes, Trump Relief
    Good morning,
    In checking the markets this morning, as I write, Asia-Pacific is mostly up with the exception being Australia and Euorpe is up across the board. In the States stocks look to be up strong and govenment bonds down. Yesterday, the only two sectors positive in the 500 Index were utilities and consumer staples.
    In my writting yesterday I mentioned how vunerable I felt the markets were and compaired them much to a card game of bridge where the hand had been doubled. Seems, the President was holding a hand full of high trump cards because the markets found good favor in his speach with stocks looking to be up strong not only in the States but abroad as well. With this, I now look for a March rate increase by the fed in an attempt to cool things down.
    From my perspective, the best call I heard from a strategist was from Jeffrey Saut of Raymond James and that it was somtimes best to just sit. And, that was exactly what Old_Skeet did. Look for a barometer reading report tomorrow. Although stocks look to be extended by some valuation matrix it just does not seem anything in the nearterm is going to stop the bull market run or President Trump either.
    http://finviz.com/futures.ashx
    http://markets.wsj.com/usoverview
    Earning season continues with a good number of companies reporting.
    https://biz.yahoo.com/research/earncal/today.html
    Have a good day ... and, most of all, I wish all "Good Investing."
  • Moving Averages: February Month-End Update
    It's not just an effective strategy for managing volatility, it can significantly beat the market in cases of significant downturns, although it would tend to trail in cases where an investor gets whipsawed. From late 2000 until the beginning of 2013 the S&P went nowhere (excluding dividends, which isn't unimportant, but both the 10 month and 12 month moving average systems made enough gains that someone could get whipsawed a lot and still be ahead. The real question is whether you fear a big downturn or fear being whipsawed more in the future. Considering the volatility benefits it would seem like a decent chance of significantly improving risk adjusted returns and possibly absolute returns, although the internet bubble and the credit crisis were a big help in the last 15+ years.
  • Boston Partners Long/Short Research Fund to reopen to new investors
    I protest. I own this fund. WTF they don't open their original L/S fund? I'm second class citizen? Open BPLEX now!
    BPRRX has $6.5B in assets. They will close if assets increase 5% ??? Makes no sense.
    BPLEX has $1.0B.
    I'm mad. I mean at them.
  • Boston Partners Long/Short Research Fund to reopen to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/831114/000110465917012635/a17-7340_1497.htm
    497 1 a17-7340_1497.htm 497
    THE RBB FUND, INC.
    Boston Partners Investment Funds
    Boston Partners Long/Short Research Fund
    Institutional Class (BPIRX)
    Investor Class (BPRRX)
    Supplement dated February 28, 2017
    to the Prospectuses dated December 31, 2016
    Based on the recommendation of Boston Partners Global Investors, Inc., the Board of Directors of The RBB Fund, Inc. has approved re-opening the Boston Partners Long/Short Research Fund for sale to all investors, effective as of March 1, 2017. In addition, the Adviser has discretion to close the Boston Partners Long/Short Research Fund thereafter should the assets of the Fund increase by more than 5% from the date of the reopening of the Fund. All references to the Boston Partners Long/Short Research Fund being closed to new investors are hereby deleted from the Prospectus.
    * * * * *
    Please retain this supplement for your reference.