@Old_Joe CVX is yielding 4.5% and XOM is yielding almost 4%. I won't get rich, but I think these two companies have the financial resources to protect those dividends. If they keep sliding, I'm planning to buy more. No, they are not the most exciting positions from a risk/reward standpoint, but I'd rather have a "safe" dividend than roll the dice on a capital gain.
Which MLPs are best positioned to weather this downturn and protect their dividends? Any recommendations? I'd like to start buying those, as well, but since some of the stalwarts...like Kinder Morgan...have been decimated, I don't know where to start.

Again: the Saudi's can shut down our shale and marginally more-expensive production only as long as they keep their price below our production cost which seems to be somewhere in the $40-50 range. Let's stipulate that we're all geniuses and buy in reasonably close to the bottom. Then what? How does this great price recovery happen so we all get rich?

Yes, all those services included. NJ and Oregon the only two left of the 50?

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937715000418/e37710rpr-rse_isi497.htm
497 1 e37710rpr-rse_isi497.htm
The Royce Fund
Supplement to the Investment, Service, and Institutional Class Shares Prospectus dated May 1, 2015
Royce Premier Fund
Royce Special Equity Fund
Effective January 4, 2016 (the “Effective Date”), Royce Premier Fund and Royce Special Equity Fund will reopen to new shareholders and new relationships. Investment, Service, and Institutional Class shares of Royce Premier Fund and Royce Special Equity Fund may be acquired by purchase or exchange on or after the Effective Date in accordance with the provisions of the Funds’ Statutory Prospectus, dated May 1, 2015, relating to those share classes (the “Prospectus”).
Royce Premier Fund and Royce Special Equity Fund have been open only to existing shareholders and existing relationships in accordance with the provisions of a Supplement, also dated May 1, 2015 (the “Supplement”), to the Prospectus. The Supplement is rescinded in all respects as of the Effective Date, and shall be of no force and effect thereafter.
Royce & Associates, LLC, investment adviser to each of Royce Premier Fund and Royce Special Equity Fund, reserves the right to: (i) reject any investment that it believes will adversely affect its ability to manage these Funds; and (ii) close and re-open these Funds to new or existing shareholders at any time.
December 22, 2015
ISIOPENSUP-1215
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937715000420/e37710rpr-rse_crk497.htm
Supplement to the Consultant, R, and K Class Shares Prospectus dated May 1, 2015 -Royce Premier Fund &
Royce Special Equity Fund
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/709364/000094937715000422/e37710rpr_w497.htm
Supplement to the W Class Shares Prospectus dated May 1, 2015-Royce Premier Fund

"In big terms, the XLV added an additional $5.0 billion in market capitalization over the same period going from $12.7 billion to $18.7 billion." Because that makes sense....

Tom Tobin suggests there are reasons to be wary of health care investing in 2016. The article provides numerous things to consider. Here are a few excerpts:
"From the beginning of 2013, the year before the roll out (of Obamacare), to the peaks of 2015, the S&P 500 was up +47.8% while the XLV nearly doubled that effort by rising +91.1%. For the hospitals, who likely saw the most incremental benefit, increased patient volume and less unpaid charity care led to stock returns of +141.6%. In small terms, a $10,000 investment in a basket of hospital stocks would have peaked a few months ago at over $24,000. In big terms, the XLV added an additional $5.0 billion in market capitalization over the same period going from $12.7 billion to $18.7 billion. The reason the portfolio returns were so big is because the tide of newly insured medical consumers was so large; the largest in over 30 years by our estimate."
"Heading into 2016 we will enter a period we are calling the #ACATaper, when the benefits of millions of new medical consumers and the money to pay for their care tapers off back to slow to negative growth and the industry resumes grappling with the litany of cost pressures that existed before Obamacare, and will certainly exist after it."
"The ACA has created a year-over-year comparison so enormous that healthcare stocks will probably unwind rather violently. In fact, there is already evidence that the taper is underway as we have already seen an abrupt about-face for the industry."
"Beyond 2016, there are additional industry headwinds to consider which the ACA either masked or exacerbated. Demographics are putting downward pressure on pricing as Baby Boomers are graduating into Medicare leaving their employer-based commercial insurance behind."
"One of the great alterations that Obamacare made to the U.S. Medical Economy, among the many others, is the rise of information technology in the delivery of healthcare. The highly likely outcome over the years to come is that Americans receive better care at a cheaper price; a crazy idea after 50 years of excess healthcare inflation. Breaking the inflation cycle will be one of the great benefits of Obamacare."
"For now, given what we think unfolds in 2016, we would encourage investors to approach healthcare stocks with extreme caution in the short term. That’s why our list of shorts is far longer than our longs these days, and it’s going to be a while before that changes."
See: http://www.investopedia.com/articles/investing/122115/why-perfect-storm-brewing-healthcare.asp

http://energy.gov/eere/vehicles/fact-835-august-25-average-historical-annual-gasoline-pump-price-1929-2013
Interesting chart for gas prices from 1929 to 2013 normalized in 2013 dollars. I started driving at 16 in 1970 and from the chart, .35 is exactly the price I remember filling my dad's car with, That would be $1.63 in today's dollars... ok, not quite filling. I think I put a gallon or two in the tank... once in a while.

Jeez. I recall 1971, and gas was .19 cents per gallon. Easier to comprehend that. How does $2.00 gas compare, today? (inflation, and everything else...) My still shiny-new, miniscule stake in COP is down -10.5% since it was begun, just a few weeks ago. I'm not thinking of adding until into the New Year. Further to fall? Not trying to time the bottom. Even if it comes off a new bottom, these are BARGAIN prices.

Dumped my MLP funds INFIX and TMLPX, waited too long, but with them down almost 50% since they were added, that would mean they would have to move up 100% for me to get back to even. Doubt that will happen anytime soon to say the least. Right now proceeds parked in cash, but they represented only 4% of my equity portion when purchased. I am not likely to reenter this sector in near future, I do have some exposure with more general equity funds anyway. That's enough for now.

Treasury Bills Beat Oil 30 Years On
Posted on December 22, 2015 by David Ott Acropolis Investment Management
The annualized standard deviation of monthly returns for WTI spot was 25.21 percent. To put that in perspective, it was 16.86 percent for the S&P 500 during the same period, which include the tech bubble/burst and the 2008 financial crisis.
That’s right, oil was 50 percent more volatile than stocks, but it yielded lower returns than Treasury bills over a 32 year period.

The orange line below takes the historical prices and puts them into today’s dollars ... I find it remarkable that oil was trading at the equivalent of $65 per barrel when the data first started (1983)compared to the $35 level today.

http://acrinv.com/treasury-bills-beat-oil-30-years-on/
Update 12/23/15 Oil and Energy Stocks
Posted on December 23, 2015 by David Ott
One of my favorite long-timer readers asked me today to follow up on the chart from yesterday to include the performance of energy stocks
The best quality sector data from S&P only dates back to 1989, so this data set isn't quite as long as what I showed yesterday, but the story is basically the same and I have to admit that I was surprised by how well energy stocks have done over the last 25 or so years.
In fact, despite the absolute bear market in energy stocks, which have fallen by about a third since their peak last year, they are still outperforming the S&P 500 when you look at the entire period. (1989-present0
In that same vain, when we look at this shortened period, WTI crude has kept pace with inflation, unlike the chart yesterday that showed crude failing to keep up with inflation - it just goes to show how so much data is period specific.

http://acrinv.com/oil-and-energy-stocks/

I have dialed my asset allocaton back to a 50/50 asset allocation currently holding 20% in cash, 30% in income funds, 35% in growth & income funds and 15% in growth funds. I am thinking the market for 2016 will be much like that of 2015 and with this I have reduced my allocation in stocks due to their relative high valuation with reported earnings running around a TTM P/E Ratio of 23 for the S&P 500 Index and in bonds due to anticipated rising interest rates. In equities, I am favoring good dividend paying world equity and allocation funds over domestic and in fixed income I am favoring short duration, bank loan and convertible funds.

Many thematic (not sector) ETFs like those mentioned in the article are, in my view, mainly short-to-near-term fads. Their being 'successful' comes down to how much AUM they can gather by people who fall for their marketing. An ETF that launched in 2014 or 2015 cannot, in my view, be considered "successful" in anything other than its AUM for the vendor ... how it performs under varying market conditions over time is how I view a fund's ability to be 'successful."

Is anyone buying this fund. Expensive yes but with interesting qualities. Nice behavior currently. I will likely rollover a pension distribution into an IRA.

FYI: Blend of 50% stocks, 50% bonds offers strong and stable result.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/careful-you-might-be-risking-too-much-for-the-same-investment-return-2015-12-22/print

FYI: Firm behind successful cybersecurity ETF now eyes drones.
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/this-new-etf-will-let-you-bet-on-drones-taking-off-2015-12-18/print

Hi @Bitzer,
Thanks again for making comment.
I feel my active management has indeed been worth while. Let me explain. Take a million dollar portfolio and the difference of my ten year annualized return of 6.9% vs. my buddies ten year return of 5.6% as noted in the post that I linked equals a spread of 1.3% or about $13,000.00 per year. And, when ths is carried out over a ten year period this amounts to about of $130,000.00. I score this as being worth my time. At least, it has been for me.

http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/751173/000119312515409219/d104788d497.htm
497 1 d104788d497.htm MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
MANNING & NAPIER FUND, INC.
Supplement dated December 21, 2015 to the combined Prospectus (the “Prospectus”) dated May 1, 2015 as supplemented August 3, 2015, November 17, 2015, November 25, 2015 and December 16, 2015 for the following Series:
Focused Opportunities Series
This supplement provides new and additional information beyond that contained in the Prospectus and should be read in conjunction with the Prospectus.
The Board of Directors of the Manning & Napier Fund, Inc. has voted to completely liquidate the Focused Opportunities Series (the “Series”).
The closure of the Series to new investors and to additional investments from existing shareholders was described in the December 16, 2015 supplement to the Prospectus.
The Series will redeem all of its outstanding shares on or about January 25, 2016 and distribute the proceeds to the Series’ shareholders (subject to maintenance of appropriate reserves for liquidation and other expenses).
As is the case with other redemptions, each shareholder’s redemption, including a mandatory redemption, will constitute a taxable disposition of shares for those shareholders who do not hold their shares through tax-advantaged plans. Shareholders should contact their tax advisors to discuss the potential income tax consequences of the liquidation.
As Series shareholders redeem shares of the Series between the date of this supplement and the date of the final redemption, and as the Series increases its cash positions to facilitate redemptions, the Series may not be able to continue to invest its assets in accordance with its stated investment policies. Accordingly, the Series may not be able to achieve its investment objectives during the period between the date of this supplement and the date of its final redemption.
PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE

Vanguard Core Bond Fund filing:
http://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/836906/000093247115009408/malvern485a.htm
In the appended SAI, one finds:
" Brian W. Quigley, Gemma Wright-Casparius and Gregory S. Nassour co-manage Vanguard Core Bond Fund; which as of the date of this Statement of Additional Information had not yet commenced operations.
As of May 31, 2015, Mr. Quigley managed 1 other registered investment company with total assets of $5 billion (advisory fee not based on account performance). As of May 31, 2015, Ms. Wright-Casparius managed 4 other registered investment companies with total assets of $41 billion (advisory fees not based on account performance). As of May 31, 2015, Mr. Nassour managed 3 other registered investment companies with total assets of $75 billion, co-managed 2 other registered investment companies with total assets $15.8 billion, and co-managed 1 other pooled investment vehicle with total assets of $10 billion (none of which had advisory fees based on account performance)."
And, not touched upon in the Barron's blog:
"Daniel Shaykevich manages Vanguard Emerging Markets Bond Fund, which as of the date of this Statement of Additional Information had not yet commenced operations. As of May 31, 2015, Mr. Shaykevich managed X other registered investment companies with total assets of $X billion, and co-managed X other pooled investment vehicle with total assets of $XX billion (none of which had advisory fees based on account performance)."

So, not only will Vanguard have an actively-managed Core Bond fund, they apparently will also have an actively-managed Emerging Mkts. Bond Fund. Well, whaddayaknow, that's a change.
Vanguard's announcement:
https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/fund-announcement-C-122015?link=topStories&linkLocation=Position1

In all these cases, we witnessed a rare phenomenon that exists in only the most extreme bottom-calling scenarios. It is when the price of the E T F hits an all-time low while the shares outstanding hit an all time high. That is exactly what is happening right now with USO as shown in the chart below. That is a wide, scary mouth, and it is gobbling up investor cash.

Better Link to AndyJ posting
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2015-12-21/etf-investors-have-spent-24-billion-trying-to-call-bottom-in-oil

FYI: Vanguard Group’s new bond fund would pave the way for the fund giant’s in-house portfolio managers to buy or sell junk bonds for the first time.
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.barrons.com/focusonfunds/2015/12/21/a-milestone-for-vanguard-new-fund-could-include-junk-bonds/tab/print/