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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • T. Rowe Price U.S. High Yield Fund in registration
    @hank said Mark Vaselkov made PRHYX what it became. I'd be reluctant to invest in a Price high yield fund without his being at the helm. From my experience their fixed income people are hit and miss - but Vaselkov is a great one.
    Sounds like you do know junk bonds being spot on in your statement above. Not sure about junk bond experts of which I am certainly not. I recall when "experts" such as Icahn and Gundlach were looking for a junk bond market meltdown late 2015/early 2016. But instead of a meltdown we get a 20%+ meltup. Marty Fridson the most acclaimed junk expert said early last summer the overvaluation in junk was "staggering". Funny how the market rarely listens to the experts.
  • Fannie and Freddie
    The Fairholme Focused Income Fund fared better than FAIRX: It was down 6.19% today and is still up for the year by 2.51%. FCOIX is managed by Bruce Berkowitz and he has a 6.76% holding in Fannie Mae Preferred which also tumbled today. FOCIX was up 32% in 2016. It was a good day to head for the exits.
  • T. Rowe Price U.S. High Yield Fund in registration
    New fund is "US High Yield". PRHYX currently "only" about 71% US bonds. Foreign bonds definitely not EM or Frontier heavy.
    Not sure if now is the right time, but in 30 years I doubt anyone will say the fund would have been better if only they had launched it 5 years earlier/later... unless it fails and someone on MFO remembers this thread. Maybe Ted will be around then to post it.
  • Josh Brown: 10 Insane Things People On Wall Street Believe
    @MJG noted: "Yes, Wall Street has many shortcomings, but it must provide a useful function. It serves and thrives independent of its many scandals. It recovers rapidly from these scandals which speak to its necessity, and also the need for regulation. All coins have two sides.
    I do believe the big kids in the money world find their favorable coin to have been struck on a single sided planchet.
    Ha..........a common legal phrasing by whomever or entity upon being fined by the S.E.C;
    Without admitting or denying any wrongdoing.
    Hand slaps of money fines and no jail time. Jeez, the small folks are still being thrown in jail for tiny crimes or implied crimes. Forfeiture of assets by private citizens before being found guilty. Hell, aside from techniques; little has changed with the "money changers" over a few thousand years.
    This link doesn't include mortgage related fines, etc.; and is related to other deeds ($12 billion in fines from 2009).
    http://www.gao.gov/assets/680/675987.pdf
    This link is for other "fine" goodies for the past 8 years.
    https://www.google.com/#q=s.e.c.+fines+paid+by+financial+institutions+for+the+past+8+years
    I haven't been asleep to the circumstance that I consider most of our investments to be mingled among the big money of the world; among many big money pimps and that this small personal sum of the global values of money is nothing less than investing "whore" money.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Larry Swedroe: Investing Habits Affected By Genetics
    Hi Guys,
    I'm sure genetics is indeed a factor in our investing philosophy and decision making. It partially explains our risk profile. The referenced article concludes that it controls like 45% of our investing decisions, although we can do things to modify that predisposition.
    But that study was based upon Swedish folks. Why them? It is not a far reach to suspect that we are substantially different in the way we assess investment risks and rewards. The Swedes are far more willing to submit to government control and mandates; their higher tax schedules are acceptable by their standards. Their long dark hours and days must influence their perspectives in negative ways. General optimism levels must differ.
    A genetic study of the nature reported in the referenced work would be much more meaningful and trustworthy if it were conducted in the USA.
    Best Wishes
  • Fannie and Freddie
    This is not good news if you are a Fairholme fund investor or if you own a MF which is invested in Fannie and Freddie. https://finance.yahoo.com/m/c7c9f689-db97-3d47-a789-c29a30b8c52c/hedge-funds-can't-sue-over.html
    I didn't see this topic posted.
  • Josh Brown: 10 Insane Things People On Wall Street Believe
    Hi Guys,
    Folks have been beating up on Wall Street for a long time.. The question is what and how exactly does Wall Street contribute to our economy. This cartoon provides a common answer:
    http://www.newyorker.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/11/101129_r20264_p886-872.jpg
    Output is identical to input! Attacking the need for Wall Street is not new. It has been practiced almost for the Street's entire existence. A short, humorous challenge was nicely summarized in the book " Where are the Customers Yachts?". Here is a Link to an article that lifted a few quotes from that insightful book:
    http://awealthofcommonsense.com/2015/02/10-great-lines-customers-yachts/
    Yes, Wall Street has many shortcomings, but it must provide a useful function. It serves and thrives independent of its many scandals. It recovers rapidly from these scandals which speak to its necessity, and also the need for regulation. All coins have two sides.
    Best Wishes
  • Harvard Ignored Warnings About Investments
    And what do we, and are we to, conclude from anticipating change? That it's going to be different? (Everything to bonds!) That it's going to continue the same? (US LC for all.) That it's going to be something different or in between? (50-50 SC and RE?) That things are going to swing really bad with dangerous psycho at the helm? (Short everything!)
    Great advice, anticipating change, and almost always inactionable. Usually you can strike that 'almost'.
  • Bear Market Fund Defenders
    Not impressed...what are your "bear market" funds?
    bear-market-defenders
  • Harvard Ignored Warnings About Investments
    absolutely, but like so many truer words ever spoken, pretty inactionable advice.
    Funny enough, it might be the "best" actionable advice we can get. Putting too much reliance on the past, especially the recent past, seems to drive a big portion of the average investor's poor returns. Of course it doesn't tell you how to think about the future and that's the difficulty most people have, but spending more time trying to understand what may happen in the future and putting more weight on that portion of our analysis may be about as good as we get.
    Others have talked about looking for opinions that disagree with yours and it seems like there are a lot of mutual fund companies where pitching a new stock has to overcome all the doubters in an investment committee, which is effectively similar.
    These are important words, not necessarily comfortable words, but very important for those hoping to achieve above average returns. Even someone who decides to choose passive products still should be thinking about the future when deciding whether to allocate assets to the S&P 500, a small or mid cap index, a foreign index or anything else.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    Very nice graphing, yes.
    You also could do 50-50 DSENX and PONDX to create your own conservative balanced fund. Can't back-test more than 3+y though.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    Thanks @Bee. I don't readily see how to make the moving 3 and 5 years bar charts you made, but I will play with this site a little.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    If I can't be whole again in 3 years, then I don't want to invest there.
    @VintageFreak,
    Historically none of your funds have ever experienced a negative 3 year rolling average.
    GLRBX has data back to 1996:
    image
    OAKBX data goes back to 1998:
    image
    ICMBX has to shortest history going back to 2008:
    image
    A fund like VWINX has maintained stellar 3 yr rolling average results for over 30 years. I'll let the managers of this balance fund decide the blend of equities and bonds (percentages & types).
    image
  • Walden vs Boston Trust
    @ducrow
    I own BTBFX - good Perfomance,Rereasonable Expense Ratio,Small AUM
    Good work!
    @Puddenhead
    Yes I own BTBFX also, I use it as a counter balance to VWINX
    Excellent choice(s).
    @VF Despite the SRI/ESG focus of WSBFX, the portfolios as of the September 2016 semi-annual report are very similar on the stock and bond side with significant overlap, and so I'm seeing very little difference using the SRI/ESG criteria between them. At .99, the two funds are highly correlated throughout their long history.
    In its 21-year history, BTBFX has only had four losses: 2000: -1.55%; 2002: -1.33%; 2005: -.02; and 2008: -17.76%. Its lifetime performance against the S&P 500 lags by -.7%; 20 yr. by -.2; 10 yr. by -.2; 5 yr. by -5; 3 yr. by -3.1; and 1 yr. by -6.6.
    BTBFX has underperformed the SP500, its benchmark, during the current Up Cycle (200903-201701 by 6.7% and the previous Up Cycle by -5.7% However, its performance in Full Cycle periods is outstanding: +4.1% (200009-200710) and -0.5 in 200711-201701.
    During Down Cycles, 200009-200209 and 200711-200902, it outperformed by +21% in each period. Furthermore, its Sharpe, Sortino, and Martin Ratios are superior for 20 and 10 yrs., competitive for 5 and 3 yrs., but lag more in the last year. Its MAXDD is superior or much superior to the S&P for 20,10,5,3, and 1 yr.
    While the Lipper Flexible Category fund MBEAX profiled this month is not in the Mixed Asset Target Allocation Growth Category (70-85%) like BTBFX, a comparison of the 10-Year Performance of BTBFX vs. PEERS, VBINX, VGSTX, and MBEAX (Since 200702) shows superior performance and risk metrics for BTBFX vs. its own peers, VBINX, VGSTX, and MBEAX in all areas except three for MBEAX: Recovery +9 mos., STD DEV +.1, and ULCER +.3.
    I haven't looked at too many other AA products, but based on the research I've done, BTBFX as a GO and 5* at our competitor is worthy of consideration and is owned at MFO. Its ER is .94, and the 100K institutional minimum is waived at VG, Fido, and at TD, where it's 1K. The firm will not make it available at Scottrade or Schwab, as I learned last week, because it is too expensive to list there, they said.
    I'm glad you noticed the fund and posted your question. Because I had been working on the product too, I thought I'd add what I can. (My apologies if you already know these things.) Best.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    @STB65, Regardless what others may think you need to have an allocation/plan that you can sleep. I agree what you said on QE and market valuation. As always market timing is difficult and many of us have learn here.
    Lately I have been rebalanced out of equity into cash or short term bond as I think US market is ahead of itself. Also pick up some gold ETF, IAU just to hedge inflation (regardless what the government reported). March 15th is next Fed meeting and there is increasing probability of 25 basis point hike. Similar to 2016, there is likely two other hikes this year. As for my bond allocation, I use balanced fund, PRWCX and WNENX so that the managers can make decision on the % bond-equity.
  • Walden vs Boston Trust
    WAMFX,BTMFX at Fido
    250 in 401 brokerage link
    2500 in ira
    the Pudd
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    @STB65, trying to predict entry and exit points had been the bane of my investing technique over the years. But the light bulb turned on and I believe I've learned my lesson.
    I've borrowed the @Old_Skeet philosophy of having an investment range of 40-60% equity investment at all times (though not the folder idea or numerous funds). Selection of funds doesn't need to be perfect nor the # of funds IMO. Knowing that squelches my urge to buy the hot fund or sector that you will often see talked about here at MFO. I don't need a toe hold in this manager's new fund or that manager's new idea (or sales pitch) for alternative investing. I think @Junkster coined the phrase "group think funds" for that theme. Portfolio and fund consistency and staying invested long term in my view is much more important.
    John's DCA suggestion is never a bad idea. Good luck in your decisions.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    @STB65,
    Have you considered dollar cost averaging that money in over 1-2 years? Then if we do get that decline you can take advantage of it.
  • Cash Will Be King in 2017
    While it's difficult to do so at my age, I'm watching Eric Cinnamond and reading his Absolute Value blog. So I'm taking profits and trying to make myself sell my losers (much more difficult). New money from my 403b sits there glaring at my failure to ride the bubble, and I worry about my "not so old" money, which is generally positive, although some of it took overlong to become so (but my idea of "new" is within the last 5 years). I did buy some XAR, due to some suggestions here.
    This is an artificial market, driven by QE, and rates have to rise sometime. Yellen will be replaced by a compliant individual, but there is an increase or two in interest rates in the meantime.
    If anyone knows when to step out of this market, they're much smarter than I. One also has to be able to predict crowd behavior, to get to the exits before they do; and some members of this crowd use megadata and computer arrays far beyond my ability, time or resources.
    I haven't put my grandchildren's money in since I have to believe there's at least a 10% decline to come, but 20% seems possible.
    As others have commented, one needs to buy when there is blood in the gutters (but, frankly, I doubt the Rothchilds were ever fully invested).
    Must admit that I'm a long way from dog food for lunch (and, hey, the French eat horsemeat, so I hear), but I bet some of that Fancy Feast with a bit of onion and hot sauce would be mighty tasty. Unfortunately, it's not actually that cheap.