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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Cap gains for Granduer Peaks fund GPMCX
    I don't think it matters whether they have a lot of AUM or a little, the percent of AUM is more relevant. One-third of the distribution is income and they apparently took net gains equal to roughly 1% of AUM this year for a total distribution of roughly 1.5%. I don't think that's particularly surprising, especially considering they were still getting original cash invested at the end of last year, probably took advantage of some of the low prices early in the year and must have taken some of those gains.
  • Cap gains for Granduer Peaks fund GPMCX
    I came across estimate last week, here at MFO, & thought someone else would ask this question ,but to no avail.
    So I'll lay it out & see if I can get any answers. Why would this fund with so little aum, $28 million (?) be giving distribution of $.1625 from a micro cap fund. I believe most of their other funds distribution were (0) or less than $.1625 by quite a lot.
    I realize these are estimates only.
    Happy investing,
    Derf
  • CASH RICH FUNDS
    @David_Snowball said in May, 2016 "Small/Mid Cap Value Options" discussion.
    Intrepid Endurance (formerly Intrepid Small Cap, ICMAX) - absolute value which means huge cash holdings until compelling valuations appear. Up 4% YTD despite 67% cash which implies that equity portion was up 12%. Lost 18% in the 2007-09 crash.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/77466/#Comment_77466
    Yes Indeed!
    3Q 2016 Fact Sheet
    ICMAX ICMZX September 30, 2016
    SECTOR allocation (% of net assets)
    Cash Equivalents and Other 79.5%
    Industrials 5.4%
    Materials 4.7%
    Information Technology 3.6%
    Consumer Discretionary 3.3%
    Financials 2.3%
    Health Care 1.2%
    http://www.intrepidcapitalfunds.com/media/Intrepid_Endurance_Fund_3Q16.pdf
    Fact Sheets and 3rd Q Manager Commentaries
    http://www.intrepidcapitalfunds.com/funds/fact_sheets.html
  • The 10 Best Mutual Funds To Buy For 2017
    IF I wanted Hussman to control some of my money (which I do not), I'd be more incline to go with a 50:50 mix of HSRTX:HSRTX... but only if I thought Hussman was a decent fund manager (which I do not).
    Reminds me of the time (long ago) when I asked the bartender for another "Squirt & 7-Up". Cut me off immediately. (But we agree on Hussman) :)
  • Investors Hated the Cuba Fund That's Now Going Parabolic
    It hit about $7.50 today, way below the $14 it hit when resumption of diplomatic relations was announced in 2014. Any way I look at it, this fund has not made anyone much dough over its lifespan. It remains an "idea" investment for me and believe me, my attempts to make money off idea stocks and funds has not worked.
  • The 10 Best Mutual Funds To Buy For 2017
    IF I wanted Hussman to control some of my money (which I do not), I'd be more incline to go with a 50:50 mix of HSRTX:HSRTX... but only if I thought Hussman was a decent fund manager (which I do not).
    Different strokes for different folks.
  • The 10 Best Mutual Funds To Buy For 2017
    HSTRX - are you kidding me? It has been so long since that one came up, I thought perchance it had been liquidated. Not only has it lost almost 85% of its assets since 2011, it has increased its expenses by about 8% from that year, too. I really had no problem with the other 9 recommendations (oops, not recommendations, really), but Hussman? Would have picked QMNIX or VMNFX for some kind of hedging, but definitely not Hussman.
  • Difference between "Annualized Dividend" and "SEC Standardized"?
    RE: TRBUX
    What is the difference between "Annualized Dividend" and "SEC Standardized"?
    Which of the two is a better predictor of what an investor might expect to earn going forward?
    (Excerpted from T Rowe Price's website on 11/27/16):
    "Benchmark Definitions
    30-Day Yield
    Annualized Dividend as of 11/25/2016 1.32%
    SEC Standardized w/ Waiver as of 10/31/2016 1.21%
    SEC Standardized w/o Waiver as of 10/31/2016 1.06%
    "
    (I think the 3rd line re waiver is pretty easy to understand.)
  • Barry Ritholtz: Do You Need A Financial Adviser?
    FYI: Do you need a financial adviser?
    It is a simple question, but many investors are not sure about it. New changes in law (the fiduciary standard) and technology (robo-advisers) have added layers of complication to the answer.
    To know, you must evaluate your financial situation. Let’s work through it together, so you have a better understanding of your circumstances and can decide what sort of financial services you need.
    Let’s begin with the deceptively simple question: How much help do you need? It depends on several factors:
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/get-there/do-you-need-a-financial-adviser/2016/11/22/82258064-b003-11e6-8616-52b15787add0_story.html
  • M*: Dodge & Cox Income Back On Track
    FYI: (Dodge & Cox Stock Fund is also having a great year !)
    ome Back on Track
    T
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=782075
  • .....And how soon is too soon? (Bonds)
    :) I appreciate the response, @DanHardy. Wouldn't you know? I already own quite of bit in PRSNX (TRP Global multi-sector bonds) and PREMX (EM bonds.) My smallest bond holding is in DLFNX (2.55% of portf, domestic "core-plus.") All proceeds continue to be reinvested. And my two biggest holdings are balanced funds, so there's a big slug of bonds in there... But I'm not about to switch out of them: PRWCX and MAPOX. They run neck-and-neck for the top spot in category.
  • Global Balanced
    Thanks for the input. Both Scott Burns and Merriman have shown splitting up the 60% equity side into US Large, US small, Reits, International and Emerging Mkts will outperform the CRSP US Total Mkt Index over time (VBIAX equity side of 60/40). My data shows this portfolio 60/40 will produce 9.32% CAGR since 2002 while VBIAX had 7.62%. That would compound greatly over time. Max drawdown was 4 percentage points higher than VBIAX and beta appeared to be 15% higher. So.....its a matter of personal choice I guess but not a bad option. Not sure which way I will go. Simplicity with VBIAX costs you a little. VBIAX made changes to their benchmark index equity side that has improved their performance around 2006. AOR looks good with limited track record but it is outperforming near term but needs a big down market to properly test it. Put AOR on watch list. This might be in the vein of what K O'Reilly is doing.
  • Unsinkable Small Caps: Russell 2000′s Winning Streak Longest In 20 Years
    Good morning,
    It is for certain my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio has been the bread winner thus far this year with a year-to-date return of better than 25%. My second best performing sleeve is my domestic equity sleeve found in the growth & income area with a year-to-date return of 10.1% and is followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area with a return of 9.6%. Overall, my investment return for the portfolio as a whole, according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager, is 8.0% which betters the year-to-date return of the Lipper Balanced Index at 6.3%. Thus far, my better performing sleeves have more than offset my laggards.
    As of my last Morningstar Instant Xray analysis (11/25/2016) my asset allocation bubbled at 20% cash, 25% bonds, 33% domestic stocks, 17% foreign stocks and 5% other. This is a little different from my last report of equities being a total of 52%. Seems, my hybrid funds which make up about 40% of my portfolio must have made some asset adjustments for this equity allocation to change. I find it interesting to follow their changing asset movements and how these changes effect my portfolio's asset allocation. I believe, some of my hybrid type funds help keep me positioned in the more faster moving market currents as their investment spectrum encompasses a wide range and variety of assets.
    Since, December will soon be here, in only a few days, I don't plan to do any buying until the first part of the new year, if then. During December, I'll collect most of my fund distributions and build cash. I'm not certain what will transpire should the Fed's raise interest rates in December, or January, and it's resulting effects on equities. I do believe it certain that bond prices, for the most part, will continue to adjust downward as interest rates rise. It will be interesting to see what shakes out with the fast money crowd. Since, I am well diverisfied I am most likely to benefit from the fast money crowd's forever changing positioning. I am thinking of adding to my bank loan fund in the near term along with some select stock funds ... but, looking to see how December goes. Looking out, as interest rates rise and when I can get a CD yield in the 2.5% range I'll start to rebuild my CD ladder ... but, CD rates will have to become higher than the average total return I have achieved, thus far, with my short term and limited term bond funds.
    To quote a strategy found in baseball ... I am not looking to hit the long ball just play short ball and advance the runners. And, if the long ball should come, perhaps it will score some runners just as the outsized returns of my small/mid cap sleeve, in essence, did.
    I hope all had a great Thanksiving ... and, I wish all Happy Holidays as December arrives along with continued "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
  • Unsinkable Small Caps: Russell 2000′s Winning Streak Longest In 20 Years
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Perhaps nowhere else in financial markets is speculation on the ultimate success of Trompononics more rampant than in shares of small U.S. stocks.
    Small company shares on Friday notch their longest winning streak in 20 years on a shortened Black Friday trading session. The Russell 2000 Index rose 0.4% in in the shortened session to book its 15th advance in row. This streak ties a run last seen in February 1996. The longest ever streak, 21, was hit back in 1988.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Unsinkable+Small+Caps:+Russell+2000′s+Winning+Streak+Longest+in+20+Years+wsj
  • AAII Investor Sentiment: Bull Camp Expands For Third Straight Week
    More Optimism or " a sense of relief that the election was finally over"
    image
    The final index of consumer sentiment for November jumped to 93.8 from a preliminary reading of 91.6, according to a report released on Wednesday.
    This report took on added significance because it showed results of the first postelection survey.
    "The initial reaction of consumers to Trump's victory was to express greater optimism about their personal finances as well as improved prospects for the national economy," said Richard Curtin, the survey's chief economist.
    Curtin said the survey showed that the improved optimism was widespread — across all income and age subgroups across the country. However, it may have been exaggerated by a sense of relief that the election was finally over he said.
    http://www.businessinsider.com/umich-consumer-confidence-november-23-2016-2016-11
    Final Results for November 2016
    2016 Y-Y vs 2015 % Change
    Index of Consumer Sentiment 93.8 +2.7%
    Current Economic Conditions 107.3 +2.9%
    Index of Consumer Expectations 85.2 +2.8%
    ...and it was perhaps exaggerated by what most considered a surprising victory as well as by a widespread sense of relief that the election had finally ended. To be sure, no surge in economic expectations can long be sustained without actual improvements in economic conditions. Presidential honeymoons represent a period in which the promise of gains holds sway over actual economic conditions.
    http://www.sca.isr.umich.edu/
    Image source:
    Consumer confidence rose more than previously reported to a six-month high in November, showing Americans became more optimistic about their finances and the economy after Donald Trump won the presidential election.
    by Patricia Laya Bloomberg News
    November 23, 2016 — 9:00 AM CST
    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-11-23/consumer-sentiment-in-u-s-jumps-after-trump-election-victory
  • AAII Investor Sentiment: Bull Camp Expands For Third Straight Week
    FYI: he post-election surge in individual investor optimism continued this week as AAII Bullish Sentiment increased from 46.7% up to 49.9%. So after finally breaking above 40% for the first time in 54 weeks last week, now it is testing 50%! This week’s increase in bullish sentiment is the highest weekly reading since January 2015 and the largest three-week increase (26.25 percentage points) in over six years. Think about it this way — in the last three weeks, bullish sentiment has more than doubled!
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bespokepremium.com/think-big-blog/bull-camp-expands-for-third-straight-week/
    AAII Website:
    http://www.aaii.com/sentimentsurvey
  • John Waggoner: Emerging Markets Sink After Trump Victory

    The purchase of an equal weighted blend of small cap value, emerging small cap, and large cap value or mid cap growth from the Nov 1 to May 1 period, then switched to utilities, Long U.S. treasuries, or cash ( depending on risk model heuristic ) from May 1 to Nov1 has produced risk adjusted median rolling 15 year total return periods > 1600% tinyurl.com/hh3ymn8 ( or 22.4% CAGR vs. 14.8% for Berkshire Hathaway since 1986 ) since 1954.
    Would rather examine and trust 60+ years of repeatable empirical data as evidence vs. a couple weeks of post election event market behavior and anecdote !
  • John Waggoner: Emerging Markets Sink After Trump Victory
    FYI: On a tear before the election, the average fund is down 4.4% after it because of president-elect's rhetoric about countries like Mexico and China
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161123/FREE/161129965/emerging-markets-sink-after-trump-victory
  • Artisan Global Small Cap Fund To Be Liquidated
    @claimui. Isn't ARTGX doing well because it has some US stocks? higher dollar is what is killing international stocks. One would expect ARTKX to underperform ARTGX.
    To clarify, I meant that they are doing well compared to their respective categories. ARTKX is in the top 5-10% for the "foreign large blend" category; ARTGX is in the top 10-20% for the "world stock" category.
    You are correct that ARTGX is doing better than ARTKX (presumably because of the better performance of US stocks) on an absolute basis, but ARTKX is doing better than ARTGX when compared to their categories/benchmarks -- although both are doing well in general.