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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds
    That after what occurred in Treasuries yesterday. The rout in Treasuries since their most recent bottom (BREXIT) would qualify as a major rout in so short of a time.
    Foretold here and posted on this site. I'm watching high yield bonds for an entry point. This move has nothing to do with the reality of the the USA/world economy. This move may go on until after the state of the union speech.
    The emerging markets action is probably more a factor of a stronger US$, which is due to the increase in treasury yields. If anything, the higher US$, if it continues, will slow the US economy due to lower exports. Then the pressure should be for lower rates!
    http://www.forbes.com/sites/petertchir/2016/10/22/the-scariest-chart-for-bond-yields/?utm_source=yahoo&utm_medium=partner&utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix&yptr=yahoo#69616508ed70
  • Gundlach: Bond Yields Could Hit 6% In Five Years
    Reminder
    Gundlach to host his first post election webcast Tue November 15th
    DoubleLine Asset Allocation - Core Fixed Income & Flexible Income Live Webcast
    hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach
    Tuesday, November 15, 2016 1:15 pm PT / 4:15 pm ET / 3:15 pm CT
    Register here:
    https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085785
  • Grandeur Peak - I called it!
    Here is an excerpt from GP's letter to avoid any potential misunderstandings:
    Rondure Global Advisors
    Perhaps the most exciting announcement is the formation of a new joint venture with industry veteran Laura Geritz (CFA, MA). We worked with Laura for a number of years at Wasatch Advisors. She announced her departure from Wasatch earlier this year. When we learned of her decision to leave Wasatch we jumped at the chance to talk with her about the possibility of working together again. Just last week we jointly formed a new investment firm named Rondure Global Advisors.
    Laura has a strong track record of performance for her clients. She played a key role as a lead portfolio manager on the Wasatch Emerging Markets Small Cap Fund, the Wasatch International Opportunities Fund, and as the founding PM on the Wasatch Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund. Laura is a skilled investor who shares many of the same investment philosophies with us. She’s a bottom-up stock picker doing fundamental analysis focused on quality companies. She’s globally minded and is known for her killer travel schedule because she believes she can understand a company after seeing it on its home turf.
    Laura will be the CEO of Rondure Global Advisors and will launch her own products under that name. She will also hire her own research and client team. Grandeur Peak will provide the back-office and trading support. Rondure will be co-located in the same office with Grandeur Peak, where we will sit side-by-side and work collaboratively. Rondure’s products will be more complementary than competitive with our existing products. I would describe Rondure’s investment focus as more “core” as compared to Grandeur Peak’s “growth” bent, and Rondure will not impact our liquidity constrained products as the new firm will focus on companies above $1.5 billion market-cap.
    Grandeur Peak’s research team will remain focused on our own mission with minimal disruption, while benefitting from the wisdom and experience of a great investor. We’re thrilled to have Laura sitting with us and traveling with us. She brings a perspective that will help us see macro issues better, but what we’re most excited about is simply talking about individual companies with Laura and her team.
    *******My question is she going to start/oversee another frontier market fund as I still own Wasatch's Frontier Emerging Small Countries Fund.
  • DSENX - quote for Friday?
    How well-suited is that fund, post-Trump election, going forward? Risks? Seems to be filled with credit default swaps. At least that's what a quick look at the top 5 show. Thanks for replies.
  • Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds
    True. EM bonds (PREMX) hammered. PNM (electric utility) post-election stood at 32.30. It held up, closing Friday at 32.25. TRGRX (global R.E.) got beat up.
  • U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election
    Hello ...
    For the week ... I have the S&P 500 Index up +3.8% from its 11/4 close of 2085 to its 11/11 close of 2164 while the Lipper Ballanced Index was up +1.4%. For the same period Old_Skeet was up a meer +0.9%. Year-to-date, I lead my bogey 6.5% vs. 5.5% according to Morningstar's Portfolio Manager which I use to track my portfolio's investment returns.
    Folks, for me the important thing is I did not lose money for the week and given that my portfolio is a diviserified one designed to produce income as well as some capital appreciation along the way ... actually, I am quite please with how it performed this past week. I'm thinking it could have been worse from reading that many income investors got hammered.
    My three best performing funds, for the week, were ABSAX +10.45% ... PCVAX +7.50% ... & FDSAX +5.47%
    My three worst performing funds, for the week, were PGUAX -3.21% ... AJVAX -2.65% ... & NEWFX -1.66%.
    According to my Portfolio Equity Weighting Matrix Barometer I need to be currently invested around 48% to 49% equity mark; however, with us now being in the first part of a traditional fall seasonal investment trend I am currently above that at about 51%. I am still with my plan to raise my equity allocation upward by a couple of percent to 53% as we move towards Thanksgiving and remain at this level to around Easter. Naturally, if I begin to see equities breaking down before Easter comes, I will begin a sell down strategy reducing my equity allocation and raising cash by a like amount. My allocation for equities within my portfolio ranges from 45% to 55%. I usually use my matrix as a tool to help govern this allocation plus I usually make allowances for seasonal trends. In short, load equities in the fall and reduce them during the summer months.
    And, so it goes.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Skeet
  • John Waggoner: Investors Flood TIPS Funds As Trump Win Stokes Inflation Concerns
    I started buying TIPs and Bank Loan bond funds about 4-5 months ago because of inevitable inflation. Added to it this week due to the Trump election. When a candidate goes free-wheeling about tearing up trade agreements and tariffs, sky rocketing inflation is a possibility. Hopefully he was just doing his hard line 'I'll say whatever they want to hear talk' just to get elected. But a steeper up-rend in inflation? First thing that came to my mind on Wednesday morning. Well, ok, one of the first anyway.
  • John Waggoner: Investors Flood TIPS Funds As Trump Win Stokes Inflation Concerns
    FYI: Funds that invest in Treasury Inflation Protected Securities saw a net inflow of $1 billion the week ended Nov. 9, the second-largest since records began in 2002, according to Thomson Reuters Lipper. The record inflow was in April 2015.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20161111/FREE/161119987?template=printart
    M*: Inflation-Protected- Bond Returns:
    http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/inflation-protected-bond/$FOCA$IP.aspx
  • Gundlach: Bond Yields Could Hit 6% In Five Years
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    You heard it here first: Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital and one of the world’s most successful bond investors, predicted in January at the Barron’s Roundtable that Donald J. Trump would be the country’s next president, noting, “The populist momentum is unstoppable.”
    Now that the New York businessman has shocked much of the world by vanquishing rival Hillary Clinton, Gundlach sees something else unstoppable: a rise in bond yields that could lift the yield on the 10-year Treasury note to 6% in the next four or five years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/#q=Gundlach:+Bond+Yields+Could+Hit+6%+in+Five+Years+Barron's
  • Any limits to how far a fund can fall in a single day? Old Thread / New Question / Same Fund
    It was down 7.90% for Nov 10th, while the category average fund didn't fare that much better, off 5.85%. (Data from M*) Dropped from $18.74 to $17.26. On Veterans Day it dropped another 7.36% to $15.99. (Daily prices from Yahoo)
    That 14.67% drop is the combined drop over two days. (From my handy dandy calculator)
    To put this in perspective, there are just 19 funds in the M* category of equity precious metals. Several of these are purely gold funds. Obviously (from its name alone), OPGSX invests more broadly. There are 10 funds that invest in equities involved in gold and other precious metals. The two top rated funds (4*) of these ten are VGPMX and FGLDX.
    While the Vanguard fund did better than Oppenheimer over the past two days (down 10.94%), Invesco was more in line with Oppenheimer. It dropped from an initial price of $4.98 to close at $4.67 on 11/10, and $4.38 today. That's a combined loss of 12.05%.
    I'm afraid you may be looking at Yahoo's "daily" performance figures, which are (as I write this) reporting two day drops, not the supposed daily returns.
    Another factor - there's a difference between gold funds and gold mining company funds. See, e.g. ETF.com, Commodity ETFs: Gold Miners Vs. Gold
  • DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach Predicted Donald Trump Victory
    And eight more years later
    'Atlas Shrugged': From Fiction to Fact in 52 Years
    By Stephen Moore
    Updated Jan. 9, 2009 11:59 p.m. ET
    Ultimately, "Atlas Shrugged" is a celebration of the entrepreneur, the risk taker and the cultivator of wealth through human intellect. Critics dismissed the novel as simple-minded, and even some of Rand's political admirers complained that she lacked compassion. Yet one pertinent warning resounds throughout the book: When profits and wealth and creativity are denigrated in society, they start to disappear -- leaving everyone the poorer.
    One memorable moment in "Atlas" occurs near the very end, when the economy has been rendered comatose by all the great economic minds in Washington. Finally, and out of desperation, the politicians come to the heroic businessman John Galt (who has resisted their assault on capitalism) and beg him to help them get the economy back on track. The discussion sounds much like what would happen today:
    Galt: "You want me to be Economic Dictator?"
    Mr. Thompson: "Yes!"
    "And you'll obey any order I give?"
    "Implicitly!"
    "Then start by abolishing all income taxes."
    "Oh no!" screamed Mr. Thompson, leaping to his feet. "We couldn't do that . . . How would we pay government employees?"
    "Fire your government employees."

    "Oh, no!"
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/SB123146363567166677
  • DoubleLine CEO Jeffrey Gundlach Predicted Donald Trump Victory
    Here is Ms Abramowicz Full article from Bloomberg Gadfly/Gundlach Webcast Info
    Gundlach Takes a Moral Victory Lap
    By Lisa Abramowicz
    ...This just shows how difficult it will be to win big over the next few months, even if a money manager gets a few big bets right. Opportunities will abound, but so will the risk of failures (see the Mexican peso, 30-year bonds and emerging-market debt.) Mutual-fund investors have made a clear statement since the crisis -- they don't want to lose a ton of money again. Investment managers are tasked with balancing out risks and hedging against being wrong, even at a significant cost.
    https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2016-11-11/doubleline-s-gundlach-called-trump-s-victory-but-played-it-safe
    No Gloating Allowed ? Gundlach to host his first post election webcast Tue November 15th
    DoubleLine Asset Allocation - Core Fixed Income & Flexible Income Live Webcast
    hosted by Jeffrey Gundlach
    Tuesday, November 15, 2016 1:15 pm PT / 4:15 pm ET / 3:15 pm CT
    Register here:
    https://event.webcasts.com/starthere.jsp?ei=1085785

    CHART OF THE WEEK
    30-YEAR US TREASURY YIELDS "TRUMPED" BY US ELECTION
    image
    https://www.payden.com/
    Here's another rare event,although much more predictable.
    Supermoon Forecast: The Moon Hasn't Been This Close (to Earth ) in Almost 69 Years
    By Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist | November 11, 2016 07:00am ET
    On Monday (Nov. 14) at 6:15 a.m. EST, the moon will arrive at its closest point to the Earth in 2016: a distance of 221,524 miles (356,508 kilometers) away. This distance, which is measured from the center of the Earth to the center of the moon, is within 85 miles (137 km) of the moon's closest possible approach to Earth; to be sure, this is an extreme perigee.
    Supermoons can appear 30 percent brighter and up to 14 percent larger than typical full moons.
    image
    http://www.space.com/21693-supermoon-full-moon-2013-stargazers-photos.html
    http://www.space.com/34660-closest-supermoon-full-moon-in-69-years-forecast.html
    http://www.timeanddate.com/moon/usa/madison
  • Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds
    Hank, I'm actually going to free up some money today to move back into PRPFX. Haven't owned it for about 5 years, but with how things have played out this week I think PRPFX with it's gold and Swiss Frank allotment plus the commodities sector may be some what of a safe haven. Anyway, thanks for the reminder on this fund.
  • U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election
    Hello,
    Here is what's happening with me.
    Since, Mr. Trump's victory was a surprise to many it also seems to be as well for the market. In my own portfolio, I have had some winning sectors as well as some laggards. All in all my portfolio has the same value comparing market close of November 7th to the close on the 10th. While some things have increased in value some things have also fallen in value netting me even. I guess this is one of the benefits of good diverfication. While my fund managers are perhaps making some changes ... I myself plan to just sit tight and rock along not dong much of anything until things gets sorted out by Mr. Market. Seems, by my math, the market as defined by the S&P 500 Index is up 1.6% form its 11/7 close of 2132 to its 11/10 close of 2167.
    My three best performing sleeves since the election are my small/mid cap sleeve found in the growth area of my portfolio followed by my domestic hybrid sleeve found in the growth and income area along with my global hybrid sleeve which is also a member of the growth & income area as well. Its also interesting that my income area has held up much better than anticipated being flat like my portfolio as a whole. Seems, my hybrid income sleeve has, thus far, covered the losses that were a product of my income sleeve netting the area out flat.
    Currently, I still lead my bogey ... The Lipper Balanced Index, although it has made some gains of late where I have been flat.
    It will be interesting to see how things go today.
    Skeet
  • Did I miss the memo? Emerging Markets Bonds
    It's pretty wild, so I had to doublecheck this on the Powershares site after seeing it on M*: PCY (US$) and LEMB (local currency) both fell in price today ~ 2x the drop in the IIV, resulting in very wide discounts, for etf's.
    Here's PCY, discount now of 1.9%, and here's LEMB, discount of 3.4%. From the charts a little way down from the top of the M* page, it looks like these may be the widest discounts ever for both.
    Note also the very large trading volume.
    Edit: Junkster mentioned HYD - same thing going on there, too.
    Looks like some panicky selling happening ... or maybe several big players adjusting allocations at the same time for the new national order? You'd have to bet EM oef's will be down much less than the etf's today.
    Exactly and why I would never ever buy a bond ETF.
    Edit; well, that was a shock. The open end fared worst than I thought with some of the emerging markets bond funds on my screen down 3% to 5% (OEMYX)
  • U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election
    I'm flat too, up 0.25% since 9/30 as of yesterday's close
  • U.S. Treasuries Staged A Wild Intraday Swing After The Election
    Hi @hank,
    While I have the market, as measured by the S&P 500 Index, up about 1.45% my portfolio is only up by 0.3% from the 11/7 market close (2132) vs. the 11/9 market close (2163). This is in part due to my sector allocations, my sizeable cash position, plus my global holdings have not yet begin to participate in the recent rally. My income area held up well with slight gains.
    In my early morning viewing today, I am seeing many foreign markets gaining traction. With this, I'm looking for my global holdings to have some good gains today. For the past rolling five days, I am up overall about 1.2% throuh the 11/9 market close while I have the Index up better than 3.5%. I'm thinking my portfolio's returns will be much improved by week's end ... and, perhaps, your's will be as well.
    In addition, I lead my bogey ... The Lipper Ballanced Index.
    Skeet