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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • When Does the National Debt Become Genuinely Bad?
    The top 5 foreign holders of U.S. Treasury securities at the end of Q1 2025 are listed below.
    Japan__$1.13 trillion
    UK__$779.3 billion
    China__$765.4 billion
    Cayman Islands__$455.3 billion
    Canada__$426.2 billion
    I've recently read that U.S. Treasuries have lost their appeal to the Japanese
    mainly because of rising costs associated with hedging the weaker USD.
    https://ticdata.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/tic/Documents/slt_table5.html
  • “No Worries: How to live a stress free financial life” - by Jared Dillian
    I agree with @bee about aspects of the linked book and some of the brief descriptions. There is nothing wrong with prudence in financial matters, and this doesn't necessarily equal to someone being a miser and sad about the their choices.
    One may readily discover that aside from the aspects of compounding investments to the positive; that the opposite exists for many people with the compounding of debt to the negative side of personal finance. Tis the same principle.
    Prudence and how to create a household budget also allows for a positive learning curve.
    Also fully agree with @DrVenture . Knowledge of DIY for whatever may prove to be a wonderful source of money (money not spent, eh?).
    The Millionaire Next Door book
    --- The book....its not always one's income, but how one's income is spent.
    We've presented this book several times over the years as part of a wedding gift.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • S&P 500 Quarterly Rebalancing
    Many other sites also had reported possible changes in SP500 on 6/6/25, 5:15 PM ET. I was watching too. But S&P Announcement website went down/crashed. Some blamed the overload on the crypto crowd as Robinhood/HOOD was a potential candidate (a huge news for them after Coinbase/COIN had joined SP500).
    When the S&P site was back up a few hours later, it just posted that there will be no changes to SP500 constituents.
    I almost posted it as "The Most Anticipated No-News of the Day".
  • When Does the National Debt Become Genuinely Bad?
    @davidrmoran
    My understanding is the federal government has run a surplus only four times
    within the last 50 years and the latest surplus was in 2001.
    Please share any additional pertinent information you may have.
  • S&P 500 Quarterly Rebalancing
    After the following article was published, S&P Dow Jones Indices decided not to make
    any S&P 500 index changes during scheduled quarterly rebalancing in June.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/topstocks/robinhood-applovin-and-more-stocks-that-could-join-the-s-p-500-today/ar-AA1G5EuX
  • When Does the National Debt Become Genuinely Bad?
    At least the myth that one party is fiscally responsible can finally be set to rest. Yep, both parties have had a hand in it. We did have a balanced budget in Clinton's time. Then GW tossed it and went on to double the debt during his term. The worst? Reagan. He tripled the national debt in his 8 years.
    But, "the other guy did it too" isn't very comforting. Obviously, deficit reduction isn't going to happen in 2025. Even with a $300 billion dollar new tax. That expectation is long gone, along with Elon.
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    No need to predict anything, the 2025 GDP numbers will tell the tale. Way too early to assess the impacts of the many substantial changes. The data will reveal all, everything from trade deficits to budget deficits.
  • “No Worries: How to live a stress free financial life” - by Jared Dillian
    - Trying to get ahead by cutting down on expenses is a loser’s game
    Trying is one thing... succeeding is a other!
    I have continually lowered my expenses in retirement by having the time to pursue cost saving incentives that I had little time to chase while working.
    Some examples:
    - Homesteading property taxes
    - Playing the internet/cable provider game
    - Understanding ACA/HSA insurance incentives
    - Learning & understanding tax code
    - 1099E - rental income
    - 1099C - Self Employment income and related deductions (HSA/Insurance premiums/TIRA)
    - Traveling at low cost times
    - A dwelling under 1250 sq. feet represents a meager existence / lack of success in life
    - Driving a 10-15 year old (rusty) vehicle also represents a lack of success in life
    Umm... no, downsizing your home and extending your vehicle's longevity are two great ways to lower expenses.
  • Global Investors Have New Reason To Pull Back From U.S. Debt (on hiatus pending a surge of comity)
    Diversifying across both asset classes really pay off this year. It is the uncertainty that magnified the divergent, and the US vs developed market index is over 15 % difference! Fact is the dollar fell over 9% since last December and one to examine why. If American Exceptionalism is alive and well, where is it now? Think there are more compelling opportunities elsewhere.
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    As I said elsewhere, it's getting to the point where we're not going to be able to trust economic data released by the US government -- either due to the effects of 'DOGE' and the blind downsizing of government offices in recent months or it might get influenced/interfered with by political appointees who don't want the reported numbers/data/analysis to present a contrary statement against the desired political narrative of Emperor Hirocheeto and his political hacks.
    https://www.politico.com/news/2025/06/04/trump-officials-farm-product-trade-deficit-forecast-00382549
    "Trump administration officials delayed and redacted a government forecast because it predicts an increase in the nation’s trade deficit in farm goods later this year."
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    Life lived in a vacuum.
    A vacuum is when hundreds of posts and media publications called for higher inflation in the last 4-5 months, and...the results are the opposite.
    We are getting into politics. I will stay out now.
  • When Does the National Debt Become Genuinely Bad?
    Kent Smetters from The Penn Wharton Budget Model participated in this WSJ video.
    He states:
    "If the publicly held debt goes roughly above 175% of GDP things get pretty hard at that point
    and 200% is really the drop dead limit. And the reason why is once you hit that limit
    you couldn't possibly raise taxes enough at that point to meet the interest payments."

    I don't know if Mr. Smetters' analysis is correct but hopefully debt/GDP will not breach the 175% threshold!
    Our national debt was 124% of GDP as of Q4 2024...
  • Global Investors Have New Reason To Pull Back From U.S. Debt (on hiatus pending a surge of comity)
    Foreigners hold approximately 25% of Treasuries and also lend significant amounts to U.S. corporations.
    Treasuries are now less attractive to some of these entities due to the weaker USD and rising hedging costs.
    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/markets/global-investors-have-a-new-reason-to-pull-back-from-us-debt/ar-AA1G40Qe
  • “No Worries: How to live a stress free financial life” - by Jared Dillian
    Interesting take on money. I’ve enjoyed the Audible edition for late night listening - a habit that leads to hearing different parts in bits and pieces, not necessarily sequential. The style is “in-your-face” (somewhat arrogant sounding) perhaps heightened in the Audible edition by a different narrator than the author.
    It’s a book more about attitude than investing skill or knowledge. If you’re looking for how to invest, this isn’t the right book for you. I don’t necessarily agree with all of Dillian’s assertions (Some appear even clownish). But it is a refreshing different take on money.
    Some assertions (as interpreted / rephrased by me)
    - The only two sources of financial stress are risk and debt.
    - A home is not an investment.
    - Trying to get ahead by cutting down on expenses is a loser’s game.
    - Increasing income is the key to financial happiness.
    - A dwelling under 1250 sq. feet represents a meager existence / lack of success in life
    - Driving a 10-15 year old (rusty) vehicle also represents a lack of success in life
    - Never finance a new vehicle. Always pay cash.
    - Don’t skimp on insurance.
    - Always give large outsized tips for services well rendered.
    Like I said, the style is confrontational and I do not necessarily agree with all the assertions. But if you’re looking for something that challenges some commonly held notions about money, I recommend it.
    Review of Jared Dillian’s “No Worries”
    (I haven’t researched the author. He claims to be a highly successful self-made millionaire of humble origin.)
    -
    Edit (6/15/25) The author completely contradicts himself near the end of the book where he claims a home is “absolutely” an investment - one of the best you can make!
    In another late chapter he recommends buying only Toyota autos because they last such a long time. Made me feel smarter as I recently purchased my first Toyota. Better last a long time. :)
    Near the end he reveals his 5 asset portfolio for a complete “set it and forget it” approach:
    20% cash
    20% real estate (apparently including home)
    20% gold
    20% stocks
    20% bonds
    It’s somewhat similar to PRPFX I’d say. I have no intention of using his approach.
    One interesting comment by Dillian along with the portfolio is that he thinks commodities are a poor investment because with increasing technology they become cheaper and cheaper to produce. Cites agriculture and oil as two examples. You be the judge.
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    Lots of predictions, worries, noise and more.
    The actual data is pretty good, with PCE = 2.1 (lowest in 4 year) + CPI=2.3(lowest in 3 year) + Nonfarm employment chugging along with lower Gov employees in the last several months.
    The SP500 is up over 1% at 10.30 AM and positive for the year.
    VGK=Europe + VXUS are doing much better YTD
    Invest in the market you have, not the one you worry/predict you have.
  • Economists Raise Questions About Quality of U.S. Inflation Data
    Best of Mao and Putin, rolled into one. And I love what he's doing to the Oval Office decor.
    Gold trim and self-portraits everywhere? That's not tacky at all. Nope.
    A few side notes from today's BLS Employment Report:
    The ratio of employed workers to the total population fell to 59.7%, the lowest rate since the pandemic.
    An alternative measure of unemployment that includes "discouraged" workers, or those who have stopped looking for work, returned to a post-pandemic high of 4.5%.
  • GDX Index Change at Reconstitution & Rebalance
    Major gold-miners etf GDX (AUM $16.55 billion, ER 0.51%, 05/2006- ) index will also change at it scheduled reconstitution & rebalance on 9/19/25.
    The current Index is NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index.
    The new index will be MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index (MVGDXTR). It's a free-float market-cap index with some exchange eligibility criteria. It also includes some silver-mining companies. An additional requirement will be that 50%+ of revenues or assets must be related to gold & silver mining. The change will be made gradually. The overlap between majors GDX & juniors GDXJ will be reduced a bit (this overlap cannot be avoided due to the size of GDXJ).
    Note that junior-miners etf GDXJ (AUM $5.67 billion, ER 0.51%, 11/2009- ) follows MVGDXJ Junior Gold Miners Index.
    https://www.vaneck.com/us/en/blogs/gold-investing/what-to-know-about-gdxs-index-change/
  • VanEck's Emerging Markets Bond fund is being converted into an ETF
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/768847/000076884725000122/vaneckfundsemb-supplementt.htm
    497 1 vaneckfundsemb-supplementt.htm 497E SUPPLEMENT TO SUMMARY PROSPECTUS, PROSPECTUS AND SAI
    vvtsupplement_image1a01a.jpg
    SUPPLEMENT DATED JUNE 6, 2025
    TO THE SUMMARY PROSPECTUS AND PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2025, AND THE CURRENT STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION
    OF VANECK FUNDS
    EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND
    Class A: EMBAX / Class I: EMBUX / Class Y: EMBYX
    IMPORTANT NOTICE REGARDING THE CONVERSION OF EMERGING MARKETS BOND FUND INTO AN EXCHANGE-TRADED FUND
    This Supplement updates certain information contained in the above-dated Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information for VanEck Funds regarding Emerging Markets Bond Fund (the “Fund”). You may obtain copies of the Fund’s Summary Prospectus, Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information free of charge, upon request, by calling toll-free 1.800.826.2333 or visiting the VanEck website at www.vaneck.com.
    •In October 2025, the Fund will be converted from a mutual fund to an exchange-traded fund (“ETF”).
    •If you are an existing shareholder of the Fund, and your account CAN hold an ETF, your Fund shares will be converted, and no action is needed by you.
    •If you hold the Fund in an account that CANNOT hold an ETF (i.e., your account is not permitted to purchase securities traded in the stock market), there are certain actions you can take as further detailed below.
    On June 5, 2025, the Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of VanEck Funds (the “Trust”) approved converting the Fund into an ETF by the reorganization of the Fund into a corresponding ETF, the VanEck Emerging Markets Bond ETF (the “Acquiring ETF”), which will be a newly created series of the Trust.
    The Board, including all of the Trustees who are not “interested persons” (as defined in the Investment Company Act of 1940, as amended) of the Trust, determined, with respect to the Reorganization (as defined below), that participation in the Reorganization is in the best interests of the Fund and the interests of existing shareholders of the Fund will not be diluted as a result of the Reorganization. Following the Reorganization, the Fund will be liquidated (such reorganization and liquidation, the “Reorganization”). The Reorganization is currently anticipated to close as of the close of trading on the New York Stock Exchange on or about October 3, 2025.
    The Reorganization will be conducted pursuant to an Agreement and Plan of Reorganization and Liquidation (“Plan”) and is structured to be a tax-free reorganization under the U.S. Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended. As a result, Fund shareholders generally will not recognize a taxable gain (or loss) for U.S. tax purposes due to the Reorganization (except with respect to cash received, as noted below).
    In connection with the Reorganization, shareholders of the Fund will receive Acquiring ETF shares and a cash payment in lieu of any fractional shares of the Acquiring ETF, which in total are equal in value to the number of shares of the Fund they own. The redemption of fractional shares may be a taxable event. Importantly, to receive shares of the Acquiring ETF as part of the Reorganization,
    Fund shareholders must hold their shares through an account that can hold shares of an ETF (i.e., a brokerage account). If Fund shareholders do not hold their shares through an account that can hold shares of an ETF, they will not receive shares of the Acquiring ETF as part of the Reorganization.
    No action is required for Fund shareholders that hold Fund shares through an account that can hold shares of an ETF.
    Completion of the Reorganization is subject to conditions under the Plan. Fund shareholders are not required to approve the Reorganization. Fund shareholders will receive an information statement/prospectus describing in detail both the Reorganization and the Acquiring ETF, and a summary of the Board's considerations in approving the Reorganization.
    Important Notice About Your Fund Account
    Questions and Answers
    Q. Why did VanEck propose the conversion of my mutual fund to an ETF?
    A. VanEck believes that the Reorganization will provide multiple benefits for investors of the Fund, including lower expenses, additional trading flexibility, increased portfolio holdings transparency and the potential for enhanced tax efficiency.
    Q. How does VanEck anticipate that the Fund be managed after the Reorganization?
    A. It is currently anticipated that the Acquiring ETF will be managed in substantially the same manner as the Fund, with minimal changes, if at all, to the Fund's investment process or the portfolio management team.
    Q. What types of shareholder accounts can receive shares of an ETF as part of the Reorganization?
    A. If you hold your Fund shares in an account that permits you to purchase securities traded on U.S. stock exchanges, such as ETFs or other types of stocks, then you will be eligible to receive shares of the Acquiring ETF in the Reorganization. No further action is needed by you.
    Q. What types of shareholder accounts cannot receive shares of an ETF as part of the Reorganization?
    A. The following account types cannot hold ETFs:
    •If you hold your Fund shares in an account with a financial intermediary that only allows you to hold shares of mutual funds in the account, you will need to contact your broker or financial intermediary to transfer your shares to an existing or new brokerage account that permits investment in ETF shares. If you do nothing, you will not receive shares of the ETF and your position will be liquidated and you will receive a cash distribution equal in value to the net asset value of your Fund shares less any fees and expenses your intermediary may charge. This event may be taxable. To prevent a taxable event, please contact your broker or financial intermediary to transfer your shares to an existing or new brokerage account.
    •If you hold your Fund shares through an IRA or group retirement plan whose plan sponsor does not have the ability to hold shares of ETFs on its platform, you may need to redeem your shares prior to the Reorganization, or your broker or intermediary may transfer your investment in the Fund to a different investment option prior to or at the time of the Reorganization.
    •If you are unsure about the ability of your account to accept shares of an ETF, please contact your broker or financial intermediary.
    Q. How do I transfer my Fund shares to a brokerage account that will accept ETF shares?
    A. The broker where you hold your Fund shares should be able to assist you in transferring your shares to a brokerage account that can accept shares of an ETF. The sooner you initiate the transfer, the better. If you don't have a brokerage account or a relationship with a brokerage firm, you will need to open an account with a brokerage firm.
    Q. What if I do not want to own shares of an ETF?
    A. If you do not want to receive shares of the Acquiring ETF in connection with the Reorganization, you can exchange your Fund shares for shares of another VanEck mutual fund that is not participating in the Reorganization or redeem your Fund shares. Prior to doing so, however, you should consider the tax consequences associated with either action. Exchange or redemption of your Fund shares may be a taxable event if you hold your shares in a taxable account.
    * * *
    In connection with the Reorganization discussed herein, a prospectus/information statement included in a registration statement on Form N-14 will be filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”). Investors are urged to read the materials and any other relevant documents when available because they will contain important information about the Reorganization. Free copies of the materials will be available on the SEC’s website at www.sec.gov. A paper copy of the materials can be obtained at no charge by calling 1.800.826.2333. This communication is for informational purposes only and does not constitute an offer of any securities for sale. No offer of securities will be made except pursuant to a prospectus meeting the requirements of Section 10 of the Securities Act of 1933.
    Please retain this supplement for future reference.
    *******************Registration filing for emerging markets bond ETF*******************************:
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/768847/000076884725000124/vaneckemergingmarketsbonde.htm
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 6/4/25
    Posters here don't need the reminder that sentiment indicators are contrarian.
    I used to mention it in 2021-2022, but then skipped it.
    But as these posts now are also at Facebook, X/Twitter, Bluesky, LinkedIn, I restored this caution in March 2025 in view of its wider audience.
    Sentients shouldn't be relied on as sole criteria for investment decisions.
    Personally, if I am going to sell something, I may wait for good sentiments; if I am going to buy something, I may wait for poor sentiments.
    Corollary is that I avoid buying when sentiment is too good and avoid selling when sentiment to too poor.
  • Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate Fund is being organized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1314414/000158064225003470/nlft-altegris_497.htm
    497 1 nlft-altegris_497.htm
    Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate Fund
    Class A Shares: RAAAX
    Class C Shares: RAACX
    Class I: RAAIX
    a series of Northern Lights Fund Trust
    Supplement dated June 5, 2025, to the Prospectus and
    Statement of Additional Information dated April 30, 2025
    The Board of Trustees (the “Board”) of Northern Lights Fund Trust (the “Trust”) has approved the reorganization (the “Reorganization”) of the Altegris/AACA Opportunistic Real Estate Fund (the “Target Fund”) into the LDR Real Estate Value-Opportunity Fund, a series of the World Funds Trust (the “Acquiring Fund”), to be managed by LDR Capital Management, LLC the investment adviser of the Target Fund. A combined proxy statement/prospectus will be sent to each shareholder of record of the Target Funds. The closing of each Reorganization will be subject to approval by the Target Fund’s shareholders. The combined proxy statement/prospectus will describe in greater detail the Reorganization and the reasons that the Reorganization was approved by the Board, subject to shareholder approval. If approved by the Target Fund’s shareholders, the closing of the Reorganization is expected to occur as soon as reasonably practicable after such approval is obtained.
    The Target Fund and the Acquiring Fund will have the same investment objective, principal investment strategies and portfolio manager.
    No shareholder action is necessary at this time. More detailed information will be provided in a forthcoming combined proxy statement/prospectus to shareholders. When you receive your proxy statement, please review it carefully and cast your vote. This Supplement is not a proxy and is not soliciting any proxy, which can only be done by means of a proxy statement.
    On the date of the Reorganization, shareholders who own shares of the Target Fund will receive shares of the corresponding Acquiring Fund. Prior to the Reorganization, the Target Fund will continue to operate as described in its most recent Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information and will continue to accept investments from new and existing shareholders. If you have any questions about the Target Fund, the Acquiring Fund, or the Reorganization, please call 1-877-772-5838.
    This Supplement and the existing Statement of Additional Information dated April 30, 2025, provides relevant information for all shareholders and should be retained for future reference. The Statement of Additional Information has been filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission, is incorporated by reference, and can be obtained without charge by calling 1-877-772-5838.