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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Latin American Stocks Are Hot, Hot, Hot ... But Can It Last?
    PRLAX: over the past 5 years, still DOWN over -8%. If you bought into it in this past January, you're very happy!
    ODPVY (Morningstar:) + 65% YTD.
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/74119/#Comment_74119
  • Latin American Stocks Are Hot, Hot, Hot ... But Can It Last?
    SFGIX. Over one-fifth in Latin America, now. Also, over one-fifth in "Europe," which includes the Middle East. Still 56% in Asia.
    PRLAX: over the past 5 years, still DOWN over -8%. If you bought into it in this past January, you're very happy!
    ODPVY (Morningstar:) + 65% YTD.
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @Charles and Press - with FNMA at just 6-7% of the fund holdings how big of an impact are you expecting/anticipating from even a positive decision? Also didn't the fund have quite a larger percentage of assets in this holding at the start of this dispute? If so one might question why its been sold down. Just curious.
    Hi Mark...I believe the holdings were reduced, but only marginally. My original interest was in FAIRX, which holds similar stakes to also include a wider array of preferreds. To be clear, I sold out of my Fairholme position in December, mainly to avoid the distributions. On a flyer, I did buy quite a few shares of FNMA though in both taxable and deferred accounts at that same time.
    The impact of a favorable ruling is a matter for debate....Bill Ackman believes the value of the commons to be worth between $20-$50/share. That is a return of between 10-25x the current price, which would clearly give BB a huge boost. It's up to the courts right now...
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @davidrmoran Thanks again for drawing my attention to DSENX!
    If you are thinking of buying in a retirement account, and at least $5000, consider DSEEX. You only need a minimum of $5000 to purchase institutional shares if it is in a retirement account, which will have a lower ER. However, it might have a transaction fee to consider (whereas DSENX might not, could depend on the brokerage).
  • Latin American Stocks Are Hot, Hot, Hot ... But Can It Last?
    FYI: Latin American mutual funds are making beautiful music this year after lagging the broad U.S. stock markets for much of the past 10 years.
    Funds tracking stocks in Olympics-host-to-be Brazil, as well as in Mexico and other Latin American countries, are up 31.05% on average so far this year, going into Friday, according to Lipper Inc. That's attracting a very thorough look-see from investors who are seeking gains in the diversified portion of the portfolios
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.investors.com/etfs-and-funds/mutual-funds/latin-american-stocks-are-hot-hot-hot-but-can-it-last/
  • Another Tough Year For CalPERS As Retirement Fund Loses Billions
    Tax increases are baked in the cake for Californians. The politicians have been using 7.5% as the return rate for CalPERS funds and the unfunded liabilities are mounting. There is only one place to get funding to pay extravagant government retirements, from taxpayers.
  • ETF Liquidity A Growing Point Of Financial Industry Contention
    For large trades, open-end mutual funds are often superior to ETFs because there is no bid-asked spread. SPY is liquid with a tiny spread, but many of the less liquid ETFs can cost you 0.25% or more. On a $200,000 trade, that is $500 or more.
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @expatsp. I'll echo PRESSmUP regarding FNMA decision. And, Sears Holdings/Seritage, BAC, AIG. BB has not talked much about the Valeant stake ... appeared to buy late last year. Cheer you up? Hmmm. FAAFX up 3.9% for year. Not bad. (Let's not mention VBINX up 6.5%.) Hey, beaten down value investors are in good company these days. Don't think BB has changed stripes, although perception from Fairholme investors certainly has. Believe BB still owns nearly half of FAAFX. Hope all is well. c
  • Replacement for FDSAX
    NTF @ TDAmeritrade.
    When someone asks for an alternative fund, it's hard to answer without knowing what there was about the original fund that appealed to the investor.
    FDSAX is a somewhat quantitative (rule based), highly concentrated, high dividend, large cap value fund. Depending on which attributes one is trying to preserve, one can come up with various different alternatives.
    SDOG is likely the closest match in the sense of these attributes. Like FDSAX it is rule based, in fact using a variant of one of FDSAX's rules (highest yielding stocks, or "dogs"; FDSAX using 10 DJIA dogs, SDOG using 5 dogs in each of ten S&P sectors). Unlike FDSAX its rules stop there, while FDSAX fleshes out its portfolio with quant-selected stocks.
    Both funds are highly concentrated, high dividend, large cap value.
    SCHD seems to come the closest to FDSAX in terms of stock selection. It tracks a rules-based index that gives it some of the flavor of the "fleshing out" portion of FDSAX's portfolio. However, its rules seem to be a mix of high dividend (which tend to lean toward value) and dividend growth/appreciation (which tend to lean toward blend). The result is a portfolio that is still value oriented, but closer to blend. And more diversified (about 100 stocks vs. 35).
    Morningstar considers VIG the closest ETF to SCHD. VIG is a dividend appreciation fund. As is typical of funds with this objective, it falls into the blend category and has a somewhat lower yield. If one looks at gross yield, before subtracting ERs, SCHD, and VIG have yields near 3%. vs. FDSAX which is closer to 3.5%. Going the other way, for pure yield (with fewer rules than FDSAX) one has SDOG with gross yield around 4%.
    I might have suggested VYM. It is focused on high dividends as opposed to dividend appreciation. But it goes all the way down to 50th percentile on stock yields. This leaves it with just a tad higher gross yield (3 1/4%) than the div appreciation funds, still value-oriented but highly diversified (over 400 securities). It has an even simpler rule-based system than the others - perhaps better transparency but basically a vanilla US index fund with bonus points for yield.
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    Thanks for the news on the PTIAX site, TSP-T; didn't realize they'd spiffed it up.
    It took me a while (slow learner sometimes) to figure out that an appropriate combo of Pim Income & Perf Trust Strategic could roughly balance out to neutral rate risk with a yield of ~ 5%. That means a fair chunk of mortgages, but P-Income has been trending toward a lower mtg concentration, and I think the sector concentration risk is relatively limited for the size of the combined yield.
  • Replacement for FDSAX
    @rabockma: Along with SDOG, I suggest you look at NOBL, and VIG.
    Regards,
    Ted
    A Dividend ETF That’s Giving Our Longtime Favorites A Run for Their Money:
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=759468
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @AndyJ said ...yesterday sold a fairly large position in one muni cef (up a mind-boggling 14% ytd) and put the $ in PONDX and PTIAX, neither of which involve as much rate risk
    Good call Andy.My only holding in the space down 2.25 % today
    https://www.google.com/finance?q=NYSE:OIA&ei=9TuIV8m9N8PCmAGIzqfgBw
    PTIAX has re-done it's web site.Good comparison to the big boys and where it differentiates here
    http://www.ptiafunds.com/documents/ptam-difference_ptiax_final.pdf
    New fact sheet here
    http://www.ptiafunds.com/documents/ptiax_factsheet.pdf
    Reviewing Jeremy Grantham's Mid May remarks.
    This relative optimism was an unusual position for me and the snapback in these markets has validated, to a modest degree, my thinking at the time. I still believe the following: 1) that we did not then, and do not today, have the necessary conditions to say that today’s world has a bubble in any of the most important asset classes; 2) that we are unlikely, given the beliefs and practices of the U.S. Fed, to end this cycle without a bubble in the U.S. equity market or, perish the thought, in a repeat of the U.S. housing bubble; 3) the threshold for a bubble level for the U.S. market is about 2300 on the S&P 500, about 10% above current levels, and would normally require a substantially more bullish tone on the part of both individual and institutional investors; 4) it continues to seem unlikely to me that this current equity cycle will top out before the election and perhaps it will last considerably longer; and 5) the U.S. housing market, although well below 2006 highs, is nonetheless approaching a one and onehalf-sigma level based on its previous history. Given the intensity of the pain we felt so recently, we might expect that such a bubble would be psychologically impossible, but the data in Exhibit 1 speaks for itself. This is a classic echo bubble – i.e., driven partly by the feeling that the substantially higher prices in 2006 (with its three-sigma bubble) somehow justify today’s merely one and one-half-sigma prices. Prices have been rising rapidly recently and at this rate will reach one and three-quarterssigma this summer. Thus, unlikely as it may sound, in 12 to 24 months U.S. house prices – much more dangerous than inflated stock prices in my opinion – might beat the U.S. equity market in the race to cause the next financial crisis.
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3973997-always-cry-spilt-milk
  • Josh Brown: Caesar’s Wife Must Be Above Suspicion: Sequoia Fund
    I don't think new taxable investors should buy this year(The 17+$ distribution iin june could be followed up by large distribution in Dec (we just don't know) but starting next year a new investment could work out
    I do think a focused fund is the best chance to out perform in the large cap category.For those interested, this months Money has an aricle on Sequoia , Fairholme and FPA Crescent ;all funds with a great long term record and poor short term record.Like David they are most enthusiastic about FPA Crescent but I think unlike David least enthusiastic about Fairholme except for vey long term investors (20+ years) About Fairholme they noted that the fund invested in Sears in 2005 and has not sold its position.
  • UBS To Offer NextShares
    See also UBS To Offer NextShares Exhanged-Traded Managed Funds:
    http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/28567/ubs-to-offer-nextshares-exhanged-traded-managed-funds
    I am still of the belief that these are a solution in search of a problem. Now we have more circumstantial evidence:
    What other exchange-traded product cannot be purchased through most brokerages?
    Try getting a quote, let alone placing a trade, for the first Eaton Vance EMTF: EVSTC. When I go to most brokerages they'll give me information on mutual funds, even ones they don't sell. But Fidelity and Schwab don't recognize the symbol EVSTC.
    This is a product that has to be sold like an annuity because it is not understood. UBS isn't yet offering it through their brokerage - only their advisers can sell it (for now).
    The way you buy this is to say how much over NAV you're willing to pay. Then at the end of the day, you get shares at the closing NAV plus that extra amount. In contrast, with an open end fund, you get shares at the closing NAV - no premium. There's no benefit to buying EMTFs intraday, because you're going to get the closing NAV (plus or minus) anyway.
    Here's Bloomberg's quote of EVSTC:
    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/EVSTC:US
  • UBS To Offer NextShares
    FYI: Steve Clarke and his team just gained a key distribution ally for their next-generation fund structure, NextShares.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.mfwire.com/common/artprint2007.asp?storyID=54397&wireid=2
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    Under the topic of: "Buying, Selling & Pondering" here is what I have been doing along with my thinking.
    At these richly priced stock valuations I'm thinking of selling down more of my equities as they advance upward to new 52 week highs. This strategy is perhaps not for everyone; but, it is one I have followed for a good number of years with good success and one I learned from my late father and follows a buy low sell high theme.
    Currently, my overall asset allocation for my master portfolio is 25% cash, 25% bonds, 30% domestic equity, 15% foreign equity and 5% other assets as of my most recent Morningstar Instant Xray analysis. In addition, within equities, I have been overweight the traditional defensive sectors of healthcare, consumer staples, utilities along with communication services and real estate. Combined these sectors account for better than one half of my portfolio's sector weightings and puts them well overweight to their sector weightings found in the S&P 500 Index. Year-to-date my portfolio has performed well with a total return of better than seven percent, 7%, (including cash) plus a little trading activity (buying during pullbacks and then rebalancing after the rebound) has enhanced my portfolio's performance. In addition, since I have stayed invested along my asset allocation guide lines, utlizing some adpative allocation strategies, I have enjoyed the income benefit that my portfolio provides.
    In compairson, the Lipper Balanced Index has returned through the same reporting period 5.1%.
    I wish all ... "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    Thanks to each of you for sharing your strategies. I always learn a great deal from the wonderful members of this board... thanks so much for the detailed posts... You also help me hold in check some of my animal instincts...
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @MikeW: " I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income..." MAINX . I still track this one. I think that in spite of itself, it has shown itself to be a good choice. It's limited to Asia, though Morningstar puts it in their World Bond category. David Snowball has written quite positive things about it, too. M* reports 6.8% cash now. Corporates 52%, Gov't stuff is 19%. Convertibles = 19%. .....Foreign bonds are on a tear. My EM bonds are in PREMX, other foreign bonds in PRSNX. Much smaller domestic holding: DLFNX. The only thing I've done lately is to throw a tiny bit more into SFGIX. TRGRX (RE) is doing very well. All of this is wonderful, including DJIA and S & P new highs. But uncle Josh Brown warns:
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/12/the-laws-of-capitalism-are-being-rewritten/
    You have some nice performing funds there Crash.
  • What are you pondering investing in today?
    @MikeW: " I'm currently pondering investing in Mathews Asia Strategic Income..." MAINX . I still track this one. I think that in spite of itself, it has shown itself to be a good choice. It's limited to Asia, though Morningstar puts it in their World Bond category. David Snowball has written quite positive things about it, too. M* reports 6.8% cash now. Corporates 52%, Gov't stuff is 19%. Convertibles = 19%. .....Foreign bonds are on a tear. My EM bonds are in PREMX, other foreign bonds in PRSNX. Much smaller domestic holding: DLFNX. The only thing I've done lately is to throw a tiny bit more into SFGIX. TRGRX (RE) is doing very well. All of this is wonderful, including DJIA and S & P new highs. But uncle Josh Brown warns:
    http://thereformedbroker.com/2016/07/12/the-laws-of-capitalism-are-being-rewritten/