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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    If M* can be trusted:
    WCPNX. ER = 0.65%
    -duration is out to 5.5 years, now. That smells more like intermediate-term.
    -risk, looking back 3 years: just 20 out of 100, on their proprietary scale.
    -LOW risk, HIGH returns.
    -zero in equities.
    0.97% in cash. So, fully invested.
    Weighted coupon =5.37.
    Securitized stuff in portfolio= 56.02% of total.
    gummint = 29.21%
    corporate = 13.77%
    https://www.morningstar.com/funds/xnas/wcpnx/portfolio
    I own it, and am growing it. Since I got in several weeks ago, it's been dead. Maybe I should not be so patient, but the sadistics and ratings (not just at Morningstar) look attractive. It fits into the frame of what I've been wanting to initiate in my taxable.
  • Arkansas Lithium Deposits - USGS
    Indeed that is a good news. Here is a map from USGS on lithium deposit in US.
    https://pubs.usgs.gov/sir/2017/5118/sir20175118_element.php?el=3
    US is not a big producer of lithium, majority of lithium came from Chili and Argentina.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I had posted in a different thread that I sold some BA to buy NYCB. Today, NYCB released its Q3 earnings report and it sold off. I bought more of NYCB in pre-market. I generally do not like to invest in overly regulated industries but NYCB is a restructuring play for me. New management but it might take sometime to turnaround.
    BTW, there is a new ETF, XMAG, just for the 493 (SP 500 - MAGS).
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    That came as a surprise to me too. The latest offer included a one time upfront bonus of $7k and $5k deposit into 401(k). May be they will be offered an increase in this.
    Everyone wants their future guaranteed but not their own contributions. As we remember, UPS union received a handsome contract about 18 months ago but their service level has not improved. I would rate USPS about 10X over UPS service.
    Good luck indeed for DB plan.
    As to breaking up BA (on my wish list), evidently they are looking to sell their space business.
  • QE, QT, RRP... Understanding The Fed and The Market
    A lot to digest, but very interesting and worth understanding.
    The Federal Reserve has continued to unwind the buildup in its balance sheet. It accumulated a lot of Treasury debt and mortgage backed securities (MBS) during 4 separate rounds of quantitative easing (QE), and since early 2022 it has been letting those mature and roll off. That action is referred to as “quantitative tightening”, or QT.
    QT is a bearish force on the stock market, because it takes liquidity out of the banking system. But QT has been getting mitigated by something else the Fed is doing. Starting in 2021, the Fed began accepting a whole lot of “reverse repurchase agreements” or RRPs. An RRP involves a bank borrowing Treasuries from the Fed, to make its balance sheet look better. That bank pledges some of its loan book as collateral for the borrowed Treasuries. The effect of this on the stock market is that RRPs lock up money in the banking system so that this money is not available to do things like help lift stock prices. You can read the NY Fed's description of the process at https://www.newyorkfed.org/markets/rrp_faq
    source:
    McClellan Financial Publications
    reverse_repos_mitigate_feds_qt_campaign
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    From @BaluBalu linked article:
    The late season strike of Hurricane Helene and Hurricane Milton in Florida could have caused ILS prices to return again to HARD market pricing seen in the first quarter of 2023. But like Ian in 2022, the hurricane tracks turned at the last moment to make landfall away from the most property rich part of the coast (Tampa, Clearwater, and the Tampa Bay area),” the consultancy explained. “The two hurricanes caused significant, but manageable, losses for the reinsurance market and the ILS market. Prices are at neutral levels and absent any further natural catastrophes before year end, we expect them to stay neutral or soften further for January renewals.”
    and,
    “As of Oct 20 the implied ILS- estimate of loss caused by the two storms was $380 Mn. Allowing for modest losses earlier in the year – perhaps due to aggregate creep and loss development and rounding up for further loss development – say to $500 Mn. for the year – it is still is below expectations. Hence prices will stick in neutral, or soften, absent new Catastrophic events,” Lane Financial concludes.
    It will be interesting to see how much FL/NC policy premiums drop as a result of this good news!
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Newmont (NEM) fell nearly 15% today on a weaker than expected earnings report if anyone is wondering what happened to GDX / gold miners.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    I've learned to expand my definition of alternative funds. I look at PVCMX as an alt fund in that it uses cash for defense - in a manner quite different from most other funds (thus the ALT view).
    Low SD of 5, with a 7.84% 5 yr return. It's worst quarter in 5 years was -(1.83%).
    I had purchased QQMNX recently as well, but that's it for market neutral funds. It will sit alongside HMEZX, RSIVX, WBALX, CBUDX, CBLDX. Low SD grinders that I hope get me close to 7% annually.
    Many true ALT funds are finicky.
  • Short Term Bond Funds
    I've been using NEAR, an actively managed short maturity bond ETF from Blackrock. NTF at Schwab, it sports a .25% ER.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    Interesting day, as gold (represented by GLD) is higher, but the miners at mid-day (represented by GDX) were down around 4%.
    While PRPFX always gets a lot of attention when precious metals are on the rise, its actual allocation to gold and silver (in bullion form) is only 25%. Additionally, PRPFX has a substantial allocation to natural resource stocks which, no doubt, includes some miners.
    The mining stocks tend to be much more volatile than the underlying metals. They are affected by many other factors than just the price of metals. (ie energy costs, labor issues, environmental / health & safety issues and regulations, and to some extent FX / geopolitical considerations as many are in foreign countries).
    As others have noted, the mining stocks appear undervalued relative to the price of gold. That’s been the case for many years (based on regular reading of Bill Fleckenstein, highly knowledgable long-time gold bull).
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    For the past two months, I have been following two "Market Neutral" funds, QQMNX and VMNFX, which held up very well and provided some protection during recent market downturns. New managers have been at the helm of both funds since 2021.
    As MikeM said: "I have to admit, QQMNX is a tempting alternative in this alternative field for a less bumpy ride and, so far, excellent returns."
    ..............QQMNX....VMNFX
    YTD.........15.6%.......8.9%
    3 YRS.......14.4........14.8
    5 YRS.......10.3..........8.2
    2022..........9.5.........13.5
    Std. Dev....8.6%.......7.3%
    As a retired investor who doesn't need a lot more money, preserving capital is more important to me than seeking sizeable returns on capital. While both funds have excellent risk/reward profiles, I have decided to add QQMNX to my portfolio at this time of fairly high equity valuations.

    A couple other market neutral funds you can consider: BDMAX and JMNAX. BDMAX has outperformed QQMNX over the last 1 and 2 year trailing periods, and has a higher Sharpe ratio and lower standard deviation over the last 3 years according to Morningstar data. JMNAX has had lower returns, but has a smooth ride. I use a combination of BDMAX and JMNAX, but I might consider adding QQMNX. Thanks for bringing it up.

    And thanks for bringing up BDMAX and JMNAX, much appreciated.
    Unfortunately, BDMAX has a 5.25% load at my brokerage firm. But, another share class, BDMIX, may be available in an IRA with no minimum investment limit. Still checking it out.
    However, JMNAX looks very promising and, as you said, it offers a "smooth ride" with a very low standard deviation of 4.35%. It's available NTF (No Transaction Fee) and offered load-waived.
    I will continue to monitor both funds. I am currently fully invested, but some of my CDs are maturing early next year and will make some investable cash available.
    Thanks again, Chinfist.
  • Arkansas Lithium Deposits - USGS
    AI is at its best when we utilized to solve problems such as these.
    Using a combination of water testing and machine learning, a U.S. Geological Survey-led study estimated between 5 and 19 million tons of lithium reserves are located beneath southwestern Arkansas. If commercially recoverable, the amount of lithium present would meet projected 2030 world demand for lithium in car batteries nine times over.
    Article:
    unlocking-arkansas-hidden-treasure-usgs-uses-machine-learning-show-large
    Indepth Article:
    https://science.org/doi/10.1126/sciadv.adp8149
  • AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/23/24
    AAII Sentiment Survey, 10/23/24
    BULLISH remained the top sentiment (37.7%, average) & bearish remained the bottom sentiment (29.9%, below average); neutral remained the middle sentiment (32.4%, above average); Bull-Bear Spread was +7.8% (above average). Investor concerns: Elections, budget, inflation, economy, the Fed, dollar, Russia-Ukraine (139+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (54+ weeks), geopolitical. For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks down, bonds down, oil up, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 56.58% (positive). Bond yields & dollar rose since the Fed's jumbo cut on 9/18/24. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1709/thread
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    I sold the lot I bought last week as the general market looks to pause, union leader in his interview did not give me the warm feeling the company’s offer would be ratified, post 11/5 election uncertainty, etc. The profit on the trade is not worth talking about but better than if I had traded fixed income. I redeployed the money into NYCB, which at the moment looks a bit rich but its turnaround is already underway.
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    Thanks Rick. After hours b/a size is 150, which is very good. That is about $1.5M a trade. Works for me. Bought using available cash in all the accounts so I remember to use it later.
  • RAFI Index Deletion ETF web call
    I have a vague memory of a fund, or two, trying this strategy some time wabac with the S&P 500. Don't know what became of it (them.)
  • Follow up to my Schwab discussion
    Rick,
    I would be interested in those ETFs with narrow bid ask spreads in the after hours.
    SGOV spread is 1 cent as of 1705, which is the same as it was during the regular session. I presume I could sell some if I wanted to ... but not going to worry about it.
  • Doug Ramsey of Leuthold on the market, with Q&A
    Doug, with whom I met late last month, is a good soul and a wicked quant. His other calls have been really ... umm, quant. He and the Leuthold folks are holding a Zoom call tomorrow, October 24, at 12:00 EDT/11:00 CDT. Attendance is limited, please register early.
    Here's the registration link if quant calls to you!
  • RAFI Index Deletion ETF web call
    image
    They're doing a call on the new fund. You can register to join in, if you'd like.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    @Derf - Good question. I was aware collectibles like rare coins and precious metals are subject to a higher (28%) tax. I hadn’t considered what happens when those assets appreciate within a fund. So I did a quick read.
    Relevant excerpt #1: The final category of capital gains is collectibles. Collectible gains, the focus of this article, are subject to a maximum rate of 28%.
    Relevant excerpt #2: Sec. 408(m)(2) defines a collectible as:
    Any work of art;
    Any rug or antique;
    Any metal or gem;
    Any stamp or coin;
    Any alcoholic beverage; or
    Any other tangible personal property specified by Treasury.
    Prop. Regs. Sec. 1.408-10(b)5 expands the Sec. 408(m)(2) definition of a collectible to also include:
    Any musical instrument; and
    Any historical objects (documents, clothes, etc.).6

    Relevant Excerpt #3: While it is clear that gold and silver coins are collectibles, what about bullion-backed precious metal exchange-traded funds (precious metal ETFs)? Are they also considered collectibles? Because precious metal ETFs (e.g., gold, silver, platinum, and palladium) are physically backed by precious metals such that each precious metal ETF share represents ownership in the underlying precious metal, precious metal ETF shares are considered to be collectibles. Examples of common gold ETFs include SPDR Gold Shares (GLD), iShares Gold Trust (IAU), and ETFS Physical Swiss Gold Shares (SGOL).
    In brief, the article appears to say that yes, if held inside an etf (gains on) collectibles / precious metals would be taxed at 28%. There is a direct proportional relationship between a share of an etf and an underlying asset.
    But PRPFX is a mutual fund (OEF) and that direct proportional relationship between fund shares and underlying assets does not exist. So shares of PRPFX should not be subject to any of the 28% tax on collectibles / precious metals. Of course, if held inside an IRA it shouldn’t make any difference anyway. In that case, a gold backed etf would not be taxed any differently.
    Warning: I am not a competent tax advisor. Be sure to consult one when doing your taxes.