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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.
    NOTE TWO: I am feeling decent after gall bladder removal on Friday morning. I'll take this opportunity for my P.S.A. If you or yours need this surgery and are in decent health; all will be well. My surgery was required due to 'polyps' in the bladder, which is always a removal of the bladder. There will be the normal biopsy of this tissue. Four small incisions in the tummy area; and the camera view found all the surrounding area to be 'happy'. I've used only 3 'hydrocodone' pills for pain on Friday, but none needed for Saturday (today); as I don't have discomfort at this point; but will take more meds if needed. So, if you have a need for this surgery (laparoscopic), and have a competent surgeon, as I did; please don't be overly anxious.
    FIRST: The NEWS is very full of elections info and the terrible hurricane(s) reports and the resulting suffering that remains. Ukraine and Russia are still busy with war. And is Lebanon entering a period of becoming a GAZA-fication relative to infrastructure and death? Song lyrics arise: "No where to run to, no where to hide."
    W/E October 18 , 2024..... Every which way for bond NAV's this week
    --- Generally, the U.S. economic reports news was positive this week; which added impact upon some bond sectors. 'Course, all the bond sectors in the list find their reasons for price movements, and we find 'a very mixed bag' for this weeks pricing. Monday was a retail holiday, with mid-week finding various directions. Many of the bond funds found positive moves on Friday. So, depending on where you're 'hanging' your bond market monies, will find both smiles and otherwise. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week; and these remains for this week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    NEXT:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, October 14 - October 17, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.67% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield. MOST MM's found a few hundreds basis drop in yield for the week.
    --- AGG = +.02% / +3.06% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.08% / +4.84% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = +.06% / +3.64% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = +.08% / +3.05% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = +.08% / +2.14% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.11% / +3.91% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.08% / +4.69% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.11% / +4.60% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -.04% / +2.06 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = +.18% / -2.23% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = +.27% / -5.16% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = +.63% / -7.20% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = -.15% / 11.80% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = +.20% / -19.93% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = +.10% / +3.56% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -.05% / +3.44% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.14% / +6.54% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = +.29% / +7.94% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = +.11%/+5.48% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = +.11% /+1.78% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = +.32%/+7.67% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = +.32% / +9.07% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = +.69% / +12.42% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.67% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (10/19/24)
    The State of the Markets, including...
    00:00 Intro
    00:14 Topics
    00:26 Stocks
    08:35 Free Wealth Path Analysis
    09:17 Bonds/Fed
    16:54 Real Estate/Housing
    21:15 Commodities
    23:57 Currencies
    26:17 Crypto
    27:52 Intermarket
    33:56 Economy
    Video
    Blog - 10/19 blog not currently available
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    meanwhile, for those with an interest in CLOs, here's seeking alpha's juan de la hoz's latest take on JAAA, JBBB, CLOZ and the like. in brief, he thinks they're a good hold for the next year or so. presumably, this would also hold true for any CLO-heavy OEFs ...
    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4727547-breakeven-federal-reserve-cuts-for-short-term-and-variable-rate-etfs
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    When it works, it's fine. It is a front end for two pharmacies, Truepill and HealthDyne. (Wikipedia, as it is wont to do, has wrong information, listing only Truepill.)
    The price you pay is cost + 15% + $5/prescription + $5/order. This information is on its homepage.
    https://costplusdrugs.com/
    Sometimes it doesn't have the best prices, once you add in the $10 ($5 + $5) fixed cost. It is only slowly getting into nonsolid (i.e. liquid) medications. Shop carefully. I check with half a dozen different discount card price lists as well as with CostPlus.
    When CostPlus added HealthDyne last year it literally lost track of my prescription. Upon contacting them (which can only be done via email), it claimed that it no longer carried the drug. That was wrong information and many weeks later (after I'd filled the prescription elsewhere) the prescription magically reappeared. 
    Operating in the US, it cannot sell gray market drugs. If you want to buy a generic that is only available outside of the US, you still have to go to "Canadian" pharmacies or elsewhere.
  • Why Stay in Medigap Plan F?
    does any one have experience filling prescriptions with Cost Plus (Mark Cuban)? I think they sell all drugs at cost plus 15%.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC Thanks for the link, I enjoyed the read.
    @sma3 I'll contribute this tid bit of info. In 1908 there were 253 active auto manufacturers in the USA.
  • ⇒ All Things Boeing ... Machinist Union Accepts Latest Boeing Contract Offer
    @Crash- Yes, Boeing bought (re-acquired) Spirit in July.
    The FAA has been under significant regulatory capture for many years, much to the continuing irritation of the National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB), who are the U.S. primary investigators of aircraft accidents. Over the years there have been quite a number of situations where the NTSB has issued recommendations after an investigation, only to have those recommendations watered down or even ignored by the FAA.
    It has not been uncommon for the FAA to issue regulatory safety measures only after being forced to by critical publicity after repeated problems of a particular type, and well after prior NTSB recommendations on the problem.
    Have you ever seen the size of the FAA building in D.C.? It's hard to understand what all those people are doing if they "don't have enough resources".
    image
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @Derf. Dinky linky.
    The reserve is being refilled. And the US is now a net exporter of oil, and the largest producer of oil in the world.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    @WABAC ". I keep reading that we're on the verge of an oil glut" Any news on the refilling of national oil storage ? Seems it was down to 15-20 % not to long ago.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I sometimes wonder how many maga's own Tesla's or connect via star-link or consume anything Musk related. Musk seems to be all about the $$$ and influence. What happens when he falls out of 45's orbit?
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    I don't know about nukes, but green-hydrogen fuel cells are going to replace batteries sooner than we think.

    At a campaign pit stop, DJT gave his pronouncement against hydrogen. As is customary for him, he took the crowd along with him in mocking hydrogen fuel cell powered cars as bombs on wheels. So, you got a big hurdle for hydrogen technology in the US. May be Musk is in DJT ears on this but it is a no go.
    I don't think Trump reads the business section. I keep reading that we're on the verge of an oil glut and he wants the oil companies to keep drilling while they are putting money into not-so-green hydrogen or converting refineries to producing bio-diesel.
    Trump didn't like electric vehicles either. I think Musk will be able to take care of that little problem with cash. At one time Musk thought fuel cells were stupid. Times have changed.
    When it comes to our love affair with vehicles, hydrogen will be the easier switch in the long run because it more nearly matches our experience of filling up the tank, and going. Who wants to wait around for a vehicle to charge up? The trucking industry won't, for one.
    BTW. I am not encouraging anyone to invest in any of this stuff. There's many a slip between cup and lip.
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    So, either gold-bullion is overvalued now, or gold-miners are undervalued. I am betting on the latter. Watch $XAU around 164 bow; its 2010-11 peak was 225+.
    @yogibearbull, which ETFs do you suggest I look at for gold-miners?
  • Do you hold gold mutual funds in your portfolio?
    2011 was a long time ago.
    Post-GFC, gold rallied hard and both gold and gold-miners peaked in 2011. Yep, people who bought then are still looking to get even.
    Then both were trashed.
    For years, it looked as if 2,000-2,100 was a ceiling for gold, but it broke out of that in March 2024. Factors contributing to the gold rally include Middle East tensions, Russia-Ukraine war, global moves away from dollar due to aggressive US dollar-diplomacy, central bank gold purchases, rapidly rising US debt, etc.
    But as gold has rallied to new highs, gold-miners are still priced as if gold was around 2,000 - check 2010-11, 2020 and 2022.
    So, either gold-bullion is overvalued now, or gold-miners are undervalued. I am betting on the latter. Watch $XAU around 164 bow; its 2010-11 peak was 225+.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    Berkshire sold its BYD stake down to 5% from more than 20%, after holding it since 2008 (bought initially for approx $1 a share). That made me think may be battery technology does not have as much a future as is needed for non-nuclear renewable energy or may be he sold because he thought as a Chinese company, it could face headwinds in the global markets. OR both reasons. Obviously, I do not take his official reasoning on its face value. He bought and sold TSM quickly on questionable US-China relations, which I understood.
  • Oberweis Emerging Markets Fund will be liquidated
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/803020/000121390024088378/ea0217674-01_497.htm
    497 1 ea0217674-01_497.htm 497
    THE OBERWEIS FUNDS
    (The “Trust”)
    Oberweis Emerging Markets Fund
    OBEMX
    OIEMX
    SUPPLEMENT DATED OCTOBER 17, 2024
    TO PROSPECTUS, SUMMARY PROSPECTUS and
    STATEMENT OF ADDITIONAL INFORMATION DATED MAY 1, 2024
    IMPORTANT NOTICE
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has determined to terminate and liquidate the Oberweis Emerging Markets Fund (the “Fund”). Shareholders who do not sell their shares of the Fund before the effective date under the Plan of Termination and Liquidation, currently expected to be November 18, 2024, will receive a liquidating distribution in cash equal to the amount of the net asset value of their shares. Thereafter, the Fund will be liquidated and dissolved, and all references to the Fund herein shall be removed.
    Effective as of the close of business on October 17, 2024, the Fund is closed and will not accept any purchase orders. In connection with the termination of the Fund and as the Fund’s investment adviser deems appropriate, the Fund will begin the process of liquidating its portfolio securities and shareholders should be aware that the Fund will not be pursuing its stated investment objective or engaging in any business activities except for the purpose of winding up its affairs.
    Prior to November 18, 2024, shareholders of the Fund may continue to exchange shares of the Fund for shares of the same class of any other Oberweis Fund. Any shares redeemed or exchanged prior to November 18, 2024 will not be subject to a redemption or exchange fee.
    For taxable shareholders, the liquidating distribution will generally be treated as a redemption of shares and such shareholders may recognize a gain or loss for federal income tax purposes. Shareholders should consult with their tax advisors for information regarding all tax consequences applicable to investments in the Fund.
    Effective November 1, 2024, James W. Oberweis is the Portfolio Manager of the Fund. Accordingly, all references to the prior portfolio manager are deleted in their entirety and replaced with Mr. Oberweis. In addition, page 22 of the Statement of Additional Information is updated to provide that Mr. Oberweis beneficially owned over $1,000,000 of the Fund as of September 30, 2024. This includes shares held by Oberweis Asset Management, Inc. and Oberweis Securities, Inc., of which Mr. Oberweis is a controlling shareholder.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE
    For more information, please call The Oberweis Funds at 1-800-245-7311.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    last week I bought a few thousand SMR and OKLO to increase my nuclear energy investments.
    WOW up 75%!!! Unfortunately the "few thousand " was dollars, not shares
    SMRs will allow decentralized infrastructure, increasing national security, lower Grid costs, etc. lots of benefits and practical.
    If SMR (Small modular reactors) take off, then what is the future for all the EV car companies, which is really a play on innovations in battery technology. E.g., Tesla, BYD, etc.?
    I am waiting Berkshire Energy to get into SMRs.
    Disclosure: I own NLR.
  • Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum.
    last week I bought a few thousand SMR and OKLO to increase my nuclear energy investments.
    WOW up 75%!!! Unfortunately the "few thousand " was dollars, not shares
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    Time to move to Vanguard Treasury MM, VUSXX, 7 day yield of 4.85% from 3mo Treas Bills at 4.65% (after today's rise of 2 bps) & USFR?
    Fidelity Treasury Only MM (FDLXX) at 4.51% - come on Fidelity.
  • MRFOX
    @Derf It's available at Fido and Schwab. $49.95 TF tho.