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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Has The Cat Run Out Of Lives ? Eddie Lampert & Sears
    Did EL ever visit any of his dilapidated and vacant-of-shoppers KMarts? Would sure like to know. How could he have been anything but unimpressed?
    Here they pulled the rug out from under the local Ma & Pop Sears franchise by selling the same Sears branded items at the KMart down the street for 10-20% less. Now that’s smarts!
    They don’t know how to run a store, but when they decide to sell-out the remaining merchandise in one they’re closing they bring in a whole new crew. It’s one fast and efficient gang. Like a well trained army.
  • Oberweis International Opportunities Fund has reopened to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/803020/000114420418066379/tv509985_497.htm
    (I class also)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/803020/000114420418066376/tv509984_497.htm
    497 1 tv509985_497.htm 497
    The OBERWEIS FUNDS
    Oberweis International Opportunities Fund
    SUPPLEMENT DATED December 27, 2018
    TO THE PROSPECTUS DATED MAY 1, 2018
    The Oberweis International Opportunities Fund has resumed sales of its shares and is fully open for investment to both existing shareholders and new investors.
    December 27, 2018
    THE OBERWEIS FUNDS
    3333 Warrenville Road, Suite 500
    Lisle, Illinois 60532
    1-800-245-7311
  • Has The Cat Run Out Of Lives ? Eddie Lampert & Sears
    FYI: Sears, the 125-year-old icon, has 24 hours to survive.
    The employer of more than 68,000 filed for bankruptcy in October. Its last shot at survival is a $4.6 billion proposal put forward by its chairman, Eddie Lampert, to buy the company out of bankruptcy through his hedge fund, ESL Investments. ESL is the only party offering to buy Sears as a whole, people familiar with the situation tell CNBC. Without that bid or another like it, liquidators will break the company up into pieces.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.cnbc.com/2018/12/27/sears-may-need-to-liquidate-if-no-bid-comes-in-by-tomorrow.html
  • Anyone else think today was fishy?
    It's hard not to accept the explanation for this volatility (and I mean in both directions) on algo-trading.
    Yep - algo-trading is a big part. Smarter and smarter computers doing the buying and selling in place of human hands. But increased volatility, I think, is here to stay for several reasons.
    Other causes:
    - The 24 hour business news cycle keeps everyone tuned-in to every, often minute scratch & squiggle affecting every market from here to the moon. And the subsequent knee-jerk reactions follow.
    - Fast easy internet access to stock / fund charts of every conceivable shade and color
    - Dissappearance of most defined benefit plans - making every Tom, Dick and Harry a direct market participant. Amateurs have a whole different (not necessarily informed or healthy) view of investing. I suspect this leads to more of a herd (“Student Body Left”) approach. Tom’s got 100K in the markets. Harry’s got 200K. These are relatively small amounts. But there’s an awfully large number of Tom and Harry’s out there. Enough to ring the phones “off-the-hook” at T Rowe Price - and every other distributor.
    Peace
  • Anyone else think today was fishy?
    It's hard not to accept the explanation for this volatility (and I mean in both directions) on algo-trading. That or the 400-pound hacker made infamous by Individual #1.
  • Anyone else think today was fishy?
    Last week I was emailing one of my old high school buddies and I was lamenting the timing of my retirement (Oct 1) . He told me he never trusted the market and had his money elsewhere. I didn't give it much thought until the market closed today . Today was as fixed as the election of the last president . As of today I don't trust the market either.

    - where does he put his moneys?
    - how is a large market drop 'fixed'? you mean automatic trades, or something else?
    - election definitively swayed by efforts of foreign power, sure
  • Anyone else think today was fishy?
    Last week I was emailing one of my old high school buddies and I was lamenting the timing of my retirement (Oct 1) . He told me he never trusted the market and had his money elsewhere. I didn't give it much thought until the market closed today . Today was as fixed as the election of the last president . As of today I don't trust the market either.
    Reading this just makes me chuckle.
  • The Breakfast Briefing: Japan’s Nikkei Tumbles Into A Bear Market After Wall Street’s Latest Slide
    For December so far, Asia as a whole, tho registering losses too, seems to be beating the U.S. by a fairly decent margin. My Asia ref points are multi-country Matthews, so YMMV, but they're down 2-5% while the half-dozen U.S. funds on my watchlists are down 10% or a bit more.
    India's actually up this month, but then at times it does run pretty much on its own.
  • Anyone else think today was fishy?
    Last week I was emailing one of my old high school buddies and I was lamenting the timing of my retirement (Oct 1) . He told me he never trusted the market and had his money elsewhere. I didn't give it much thought until the market closed today . Today was as fixed as the election of the last president . As of today I don't trust the market either.
  • Fund Investors Pull $56 Billion In Biggest Exit Since 2008
    True to form and right on cue. Did they all vow to never, ever put money in the stock market again?
    Wonder how many sold on the 24th after a 600+ point drop? It was a shortened trading day (1:00 PM close) - but the volume was insane heavy.
  • State Funds Enhanced Ultra Short Duration Mutual Fund (STATX)
    Bought in Feb. of this year. I am happy with the steady slow growth of this fund.
    Currently stacks up very well with Morningstar's 1 year return in the Ultra Short rankings (up 3.65%) and vs. Short Term bond rankings. It is now beating my other Short term bond fund RPHIX. Be interested if MFO would profile it sometime as it is a newer fund.
  • Fund Investors Pull $56 Billion In Biggest Exit Since 2008
    FYI: Investors are bailing out of mutual funds as if it were 2008.
    Mutual funds suffered redemptions of $56.2 billion in the week ended Dec. 19. That’s the biggest outflow since the week ended Oct. 15, 2008, according to data released Wednesday by the Investment Company Institute. And the numbers over the last several weeks have only gotten worse as the chart below shows.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-12-26/mutual-fund-outflows-surge-to-56-billion-most-since-2008
  • Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Portfolio to liquidate (Aspen Series)
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/906185/000119312518356597/d663166d497.htm
    497 1 d663166d497.htm 497
    Janus Aspen Series
    Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Portfolio
    Supplement dated December 24, 2018
    to Currently Effective Prospectuses
    The Board of Trustees (the “Trustees”) of Janus Aspen Series (the “Trust”) has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Portfolio (the “Portfolio”) with such liquidation effective on or about March 1, 2019, or at such other time as may be deemed appropriate by the officers of the Portfolio (the “Liquidation Date”). Termination of the Portfolio is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the Liquidation Date.
    Effective January 1, 2019, the Portfolio will no longer accept investments by new shareholders. The Portfolio may be required to make a distribution of any income and/or capital gains in connection with its liquidation.
    If a shareholder has not redeemed their shares as of the Liquidation Date, the shareholder’s account will generally be automatically redeemed and proceeds will be sent to the shareholder at the address of record. For shareholders holding shares through a variable annuity or variable insurance contract, check with your insurance company or financial representative for your alternative investment options.
    To prepare for the Portfolio’s liquidation, the portfolio manager may increase the Portfolio’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Portfolio expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, the Portfolio may deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and accordingly cease being managed to meet its investment objective.
    Additionally, any asset reductions and increases in cash and similar instruments could adversely affect the Portfolio’s short-term performance prior to the Liquidation Date. The Portfolio will incur transaction costs, such as brokerage commissions, when selling certain portfolio securities as a result of its plan to liquidate and terminate. These transaction costs may adversely affect performance.
    Because shares of the Portfolio are only eligible to be held by insurance company separate accounts on behalf of variable insurance contract owners, or certain qualified retirement plans, the liquidation of shares held by a shareholder is not expected to be considered a taxable event. Shareholders should consult their personal tax adviser concerning their particular tax circumstances.
    Shareholders may obtain additional information by contacting their plan sponsor, broker-dealer, insurance company, or financial intermediary, or by contacting a Janus Henderson representative at 1-877-335-2687.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
    Janus Aspen Series
    Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Portfolio
    Supplement dated December 24, 2018
    to Currently Effective Statements of Additional Information
    The Board of Trustees (the “Trustees”) of Janus Aspen Series (the “Trust”) has approved a plan to liquidate and terminate Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Portfolio (the “Portfolio”) with such liquidation effective on or about March 1, 2019, or at such other time as may be deemed appropriate by the officers of the Portfolio (the “Liquidation Date”). Termination of the Portfolio is expected to occur as soon as practicable following the Liquidation Date.
    Effective January 1, 2019, the Portfolio will no longer accept investments by new shareholders. The Portfolio may be required to make a distribution of any income and/or capital gains in connection with its liquidation.
    If a shareholder has not redeemed their shares as of the Liquidation Date, the shareholder’s account will generally be automatically redeemed and proceeds will be sent to the shareholder at the address of record. For shareholders holding shares through a variable annuity or variable insurance contract, check with your insurance company or financial representative for your alternative investment options.
    To prepare for the Portfolio’s liquidation, the portfolio manager may increase the Portfolio’s assets held in cash and similar instruments in order to pay for Portfolio expenses and meet redemption requests. As a result, the Portfolio may deviate from its stated investment strategies and policies and accordingly cease being managed to meet its investment objective.
    Additionally, any asset reductions and increases in cash and similar instruments could adversely affect the Portfolio’s short-term performance prior to the Liquidation Date. The Portfolio will incur transaction costs, such as brokerage commissions, when selling certain portfolio securities as a result of its plan to liquidate and terminate. These transaction costs may adversely affect performance.
    Because shares of the Portfolio are only eligible to be held by insurance company separate accounts on behalf of variable insurance contract owners, or certain qualified retirement plans, the liquidation of shares held by a shareholder is not expected to be considered a taxable event. Shareholders should consult their personal tax adviser concerning their particular tax circumstances.
    Shareholders may obtain additional information by contacting their plan sponsor, broker-dealer, insurance company, or financial intermediary, or by contacting a Janus Henderson representative at 1-877-335-2687.
    Please retain this Supplement with your records.
  • Mutual Funds Scorecard: Annual Edition
    FYI: This is a special edition of the scorecard that looks at the performance of most prominent mutual funds over the past year. This aims to give readers a snapshot of what mutual funds posted the best and worst performance year-to-date and explain why. The performance is calculated from January 1 to November 30.
    Overall, mutual funds experienced another year of carnage in terms of flows. Around $43 billion were withdrawn from mutual funds year-to-date, with equities particularly disliked by investors. Equities had outflows of around $126 billion. Bond mutual funds saw positive flows of $124 billion, while hybrid funds experienced $41 billion in outflows.
    The flow picture for 2018 is similar to 2017 and 2016, with strong outflows from equities were offset by bond inflows. However, one difference between 2018 and 2017 is that last year total outflows were positive at $67 billion. 2016 was the worst of the three years, with total outflows standing at $196 billion.
    The macroeconomic footprint was driven by several factors. In the second year of the Donald Trump presidency, he delivered on some of his promises and started a trade war with China, although a temporary truce was reached lately. A positive for markets overall were Trump’s tax cuts, which gave a boost to the U.S. GDP.
    The Federal Reserve continued to raise interest rates this year but signaled recently it may put the brakes on future rate hikes.
    The Eurozone economy slowed down in 2018 after a few strong years, thanks to the support provided by the European Central Bank.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://mutualfunds.com/news/2018/12/25/mutual-fund-scorecard-annual-edition/
  • Santa's sleigh
    I hope the Man from the North Pole was able to fix his "sled" & is running a few days late with his Christmas Rally !!
    I just entered a buy with Vanguard (VMVFX) from funds that were taken out of play just before 3/rd qter 2017.
    I was wondering if MFO's are buying , selling, or caught in the headlights ?
    Derf
    P.S. Different strokes for different folks.
  • State Funds Enhanced Ultra Short Duration Mutual Fund (STATX)
    Difficult to find the application forms (or even current prospectuses) online, but I came up with some things that may do. Though it's probably better to contact the fund directly for the forms.
    Curious too that the prospectus says explicitly that the fund is offered to nonresidents (bold in original):
    How to Purchase Shares
    The Fund may be purchased by U.S. or non-U.S. shareholders, and the procedure for purchasing shares are the same for both U.S. and non-U.S. shareholders .
    From the SEC site, the standalone IRA application (also found as an exhibit in the 2018 prospectus, see below):
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1679960/000116204418000223/state485bposexh5201803.htm
    A search on the SEC mutual fund filings page for STATX comes up empty, but SeekingAlpha (of all places) seems to have all of them (set Filing Type to All):
    https://seekingalpha.com/symbol/STATX/sec-filings
    The March 29, 2018 485BPOS (also from SeekingAlpha) contains the IRA application form as (exhibit) Ex. 99.28.h.v, and the individual taxable account application form as Ex. 99.28.h.vi
    https://seekingalpha.com/filing/3957574
  • For investors, an ugly three months after 10 very good years
    https://gulfnews.com/business/markets/for-investors-an-ugly-three-months-after-10-very-good-years-1.61074505
    Article from Dubai but gives very interesting perspectives
    -Many are worried that the best days are in the past — at least for the foreseeable future-
  • State Funds Enhanced Ultra Short Duration Mutual Fund (STATX)
    I wanted to purchase this fund awhile back but it wasn’t available anywhere much less at TD Ameritrade where I trade. Still not available at TD but now I see it is available at Vanguard with a transaction fee. From what I hear these newer funds go to Schwab first so not sure if is available there now too. My kind of fund in that its equity curve is straight up with no volatility. One of the rare bond funds that is meaningfully up over the past 1 month, 3 months and YTD. A more volatile fund but with the same performance would be NVHIX/AX. At least for me, with money market funds closing in on 2.50%, I would prefer to see a fund where there is a potential return several percentage points above cash. The mini debacle in junk corporates has my attention but would like to see more blood there. Anxious to see what early January has in store for bonds.
  • The Investment World According to Harold Evensky
    A report of "Harold Evensky’s final presentation on investing."
    https://www.advisorperspectives.com/articles/2018/09/26/the-investment-world-according-to-harold-evensky
    Very straightforward, nothing earth shattering, though several points I've seen elsewhere are included here:
    "Evensky cited the Shiller CAPE ratio, which is 31.1 versus its historical average of 16.2. 'It’s a very expensive market,' he said."
    Maybe not as expensive as three months ago when this presentation was made, but still far from cheap.
    "If a manager cuts turnover from 100% to 50%, the marginal reduction in taxes is negligible, Evensky said. Managers need to be closer to 10% turnover to be thought of as tax-efficient."
    Which is why I may fret about Dick Strong-type churning, but don't obsess over "moderate" turnover. Though turning over an entire portfolio within a year still isn't "moderate" from other perspectives.
    “'Our clients don’t need cash flow,' Evensky said. 'They need real income.' The problem with dividends is that they are not consistent; interest is also volatile, as bonds are subject to interest rate movements. 'Our clients need reasonably consistent income,' he said".
    Hence a focus on total return.
    “'we tend, particularly in planning, to focus on the probability but ignore the consequences. That can be really dangerous in planning.' If you know the probably of success is 95%, the consequences of failure still matter, he said. We need to plan, for example, for additional longevity of our clients."
    Which is why I continue to be concerned about simulations showing 95% success that don't also tell me how bad the results are in those other 5% (miss by just a little, or spend golden years of poverty?)
    Evensky has changed his outlook about annuities, which he once derided as an inappropriate vehicle for his clients. Single-premium immediate annuities (SPIAs) and deferred-income annuities (DIAs) will be the single most important tool in the coming decade, he said, mostly because their fees have come down