I am still holding SEMPX and IOFIX. Low interest rates, low unemployment, housing construction going up all around where I live...continue to hold both.

Agree as housing has been a real linchpin for the economy recently. Also believe the economy is stronger than the recession mongers would have us believe. But I sold some IOFIX today and may sell more Monday. Still like the fund and the sector but was too top heavy as well getting worried about some ebullient sentiment in the non agencies.
I also get worried whenever I see the 10 year have weeks like this one and wonder if there are more to come. A fund manager in the non agencies (not IOFIX) put a bug in my ear once about how they worry whenever the 10 year rates begins trending upward for a sustained period. Something to do with its impact on how the outside reporting firm prices their portfolio. Not sure how accurate that is and maybe something @Charles can ask IOFIX when he gives up his update on the fund.

@Old_Joe: MFO ranks 330,165 on the worldwide web, with 856,29 views per months. I've been doing my part, how about you ?
Billionaire Ken Fisher Blasted Online After Offensive Comments At Closed-Door Fireside Chat: 220 Views
Where To Invest $10,000 Right Now: 608 Views
Is Any Mutual Fund Company Better Than Vanguard? 1 Comes Close: 870 Views

Nice day in the markets as of 3 PM. Oil’s also up a couple % along with big gains for stocks. Gold holding its own - off about $10. Politicians of all stripes like to “play” the markets where they can. Often they try to get the inevitable recession “out of the way” early in the first term of their President (either party). The perfectly normal tendency to want to game the markets is the reason Congress in its wisdom created an independent Fed and sought to insulate it as much as possible from political interference.
Back to investing ... Note that today’s current DJA at near 27,000 isn’t that far above the 26,617 reached in early 2018. A lot of this year’s gain is simply retracing the steep losses which occurred later in 2018.
Records Highs Set in 2018
“The Dow hit three 1,000-point milestones in 2018.
It hit two of them in the first few weeks in January. It closed above 25,000 on January 4, and it breached 26,000 on January 17. The index set 15 closing records in 2018.
The records set in the fall were the first ones since the Dow reached 26,616.71 on January 26, 2018. After hitting that peak, the Dow went into free fall, dropping 4% the next week.
On February 8, it entered a market correction when it fell 1,032.89 points to 23,860.46.
On August 27, 2018, the Dow ended a six-month correction when it reached 26,049.64, which was 10% above its closing low of 25,533.20, reached on March 23.”
From The Balance.com
https://www.bing.com/search?q=2018+U.+S.+market+highest+average+reached+dow+s&p&go=Search&qs=n&form=QBRE&sp=-1&pq=2018+u.+s.+market+highe&sc=0-23&sk=&cvid=5BE2D3B980CC4BFBBD8CC0F49A32C4DD

@johnN, you (and others) might be interested in this:
https://www.nytimes.com/2019/10/11/opinion/sunday/wealth-income-tax-rate.html
new from Saez et alia

$50 underperformance over these last 13mos is striking; what could account for it? (My pondering was 'how', and there clearly is an answer somewhere, perhaps in LB's speculations.)
FSAMX also beats VEXMX, by $11, for that span, all this for $10k, while VEXAX comes out a hair ahead, and is the winner. Again.
4* though, and even worse per Lipper. Huh.

One of those products is its money market funds, which yield I’m fairly certain less than Vanguard’s so every time you hold cash you’re losing money. All of that said, they’re good products.

Fidelity's MMFs yield so much less that if you try to get a few basis points closer to Vanguard, you wind up taking on greater risk and you still fall short. Fidelity's prime fund FZDXX has an SEC yield of 1.81% (as of Oct 10th), vs. Vanguard's government MMFs yielding 1.89% for VMFXX and 1.90 for VUSXX (as of Oct. 10th).
The key there is that government funds are not gated. Prime funds may freeze your cash at the worst possible moment.
Aside from the gating risk, FZDXX has a higher min ($100K in a taxable account). To get its yield as high as it is, Fidelity is waiving some expenses. That presents two additional risks: termination of the waiver by the Board, and claw backs that impede the ER from dropping.
For completeness, SPAXX (Fidelity government fund) currently yields 1.57%, and VMRXX (Vanguard prime fund) currently yields 2.03%.
For day-to-day checking account-like services, the yield you get with Fidelity is great. I use it that way. But for sizeable liquid cash holdings, Fidelity's not the place to be. Vanguard for MMFs, internet banks for FDIC-insured superior yields.

>> for the big mainstream stuff Vanguard's hard to beat
for sure, but how can anything be better for such than the 'new' Fido zero-ER offerings?

Compare Fidelity's two extended market offerings. Their zero-ER one FZIPX and their extended market "classic" FSAMX.
Here's the M* comparison chart from FZIPX's inception date.
Fidelity's own comparison chart is a bit less useful, as you can't choose arbitrary timeframes. If you look at this chart, I suggest clicking on the 1 year comparison - that's the longest period within FZIPX's lifetime that the chart will illustrate.

Josh is awesome - followed him and Barry for years. IMO their firm is doing things right and if I ever needed to pick up RIAs to manage money I'd probably go with them.

This statement says a great deal, in a positive way:
" ...My 401(k) is invested in the exact same asset allocation model as we use for our clients...."

This statement says a great deal, in a positive way:
" ...My 401(k) is invested in the exact same asset allocation model as we use for our clients...."

A bit lower octane option within the family is OPTAX. A few less percentage in Puerto Rican bonds, a few years lower duration, lower Beta, lower Alpha, and lower Standard Deviation. Accordingly, the 3-month, YTD, 1-year, and 3-year total return for OPTAX trails ORNAX.
Pick your medicine.
Mona

FYI: People ask me all the time about how I invest my personal money. I don’t think I’ve ever written about this before, in more than ten years of blogging!
Very simply put, I’m a mixture of active and passive, a mixture of mutual funds, individual securities and ETFs, a mixture of public and private assets. What is consistent is that almost everything I do is with a long-term bias. I don’t day trade or swing trade, because I’m bad at it and I feel as though those activities are a full-time commitment. I don’t want to commit to any investing style that requires my attention all day long because I’m building and running a company. My priority is my firm, my clients and my employees. So when I invest in something, I usually intend to stay invested.
Regards,
Ted
https://thereformedbroker.com/2019/10/10/how-i-invest-my-own-money-2/

Even 2.5 to 3% on the 10 year in 2020 would be quite low by historic standards. I just don't see what might cause rates to move substantially further than that to the upside in the near future.

Hi @Junkster
I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
Couple of items with this.
Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
1. machine trading
2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
Add to the list if you choose.
Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
10 yr German bond PRICE
Pillow time here.
Catch

Can’t offer any special insights. If the crowd is right and this time it is different and rates are headed towards zero that will buoy bonds that offer a higher yield such as junk, non agencies, emerging markets, and more. I remarked the other day that from a contrarian point of view at some point over the next year rates will be higher on the 10 year in the 2,50 to 3% range. I hope that isn’t the case but it would not surprise me at all. Stocks would also be much higher and confound all those thinking a recession is at our doorsteps. You are thinking more based on fundamentals while I am thinking more based on sentiment and the counterintuitive nature of the markets.

Load is waived at Fido now. No transaction fee either. May have a dabble with some spare cash, but have bonds run their course? (Just thinking out loud.)
https://fundresearch.fidelity.com/mutual-funds/summary/00141W505

Hi @Junkster
I remain in the "this time is still different" crowd.
Couple of items with this.
Watching the interest rate calls from 2011 or there about from the big houses. They all had and still have a hell of a time getting used to things these days.
Aside from all of the trade and political turmoil; I have kept trying to weigh big house thoughts and actions on market directions.
There are many possibilities, of course; but I try to place these next pieces together for today (meaning the last 8 years to date). Not in any order:
1. machine trading
2. large houses, and their traders and technicians not thinking this time is different and continue to have adjustment difficulties.
3. technology in the work place and EVERYWHERE
4. the large group of baby boomers and the affects they have in so many market sectors, from consumption or not, down sizing everything, which includes shifts in housing and what type
5. perhaps some folks buying too much expense items with low interest rates on loans.
6. Everything else..... a longer list to be sure
Add to the list if you choose.
Below is the German 10 year bond set for PRICE. This chart defaults at 3 months, but click on the other time frames just above the chart to follow pricing from earlier periods to date.
The reason for the look here, although very narrow and set to one country; is an attempt to discover when yields travel to 0 and below, as to what happens to the PRICE, i.e.; anyone buying?
My thoughts being that there is a point where one can no longer obtain a profit from PRICE gains and obviously no gain above inflation from the yield. Coming to the point of when is it no longer of consequence to invest in bonds of some form or other.
Help me with this thinking, as needed; your insight to this is appreciated.
10 yr German bond PRICE
Pillow time here.
Catch

The thing is, there are so many advisers in the world and there are even algorithms that now do this kind of work for a pittance. There is no reason anyone has to give their money to someone who thinks we're still living in the 1950s or in this case the 19th century. America wasn't "great" for more than half the population back then. The irony is fellow financial advisers go to these sorts of conferences for business advice to help attract clients etc. How stupid do you have to be to publicly act this way while promoting yourself as an adviser guru who is good at attracting new business? It's 2019.

FYI: U.S. stocks rallied Thursday after President Trump said he would meet with a key Chinese official for talks Friday, the latest example of trade hopes boosting global markets.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 150points, or 0.57%, to 26496, after earlier climbing more than 250 points. The S&P 500 added 0.64%. The broad equity gauge entered the session down nearly 2% so far in October and roughly 3.5% below July’s record, though it was still up 16% for the year. The tech-laden Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.60%.
The gains came after Mr. Trump said on Twitter that he would meet with Chinese Vice Premier Liu He, the head of the Chinese negotiating team, at the White House Friday, contradicting earlier media reports that Chinese leaders would be leaving Washington Thursday, a day earlier than expected.
Thursday’s moves were the latest example of trade-induced volatility in markets. Global indexes and stock futures swung between gains and losses overnight on conflicting reports. Fears that the U.S. and China won’t reach a ceasefire on tariffs have led to projections that a global economic slowdown will ripple to consumers, denting spending and crimping corporate profits.
Negotiations continued Thursday after the White House signed off on special licenses for some U.S. companies to do business with Chinese telecom giant Huawei Technologies Co., a possible sign of goodwill. At the same time, the U.S. adding 28 Chinese entities to an export blacklist earlier in the week also prompted caution among investors.
Trade hopes also boosted commodities crucial to transportation and manufacturing by easing worries that softening demand will result in supply gluts. Both copper and oil rallied nearly 2%, trimming some of their recent losses.
Earlier in the week, figures showed that prices businesses receive fell unexpectedly in September from the previous month.
Treasury yields rose following the data Thursday, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note rising to 1.651%, according to Tradeweb, from 1.585% a day earlier. Yields have fallen in recent months as investors have sought safety in bonds.
Among individual stocks, shares of Delta Air Lines slid 2% after the company’s quarterly results added to concerns about rising carrier costs. Third-quarter reporting season for large companies begins in earnest next week, with S&P 500 firms expected to post a drop in profits from a year earlier.
Bed Bath & Beyond soared 21% after the struggling retailer tapped Target’s Mark Tritton as its next chief executive.
And PG&E tumbled nearly 30% after the judge presiding over its bankruptcy handed shareholders a loss, opening the door to a competition over the best path out of bankruptcy that pits the troubled utility against bondholders led by Elliott Management Corp.
Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 climbed 0.6%. In Asia, the Shanghai Composite Index gained 0.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 0.4%.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-11/your-evening-briefing
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/us-stock-index-futures-drift-lower-as-beijing-washington-tariff-talks-take-focus-2019-10-10/print
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/u-s-stock-futures-slip-as-concerns-about-trade-talks-mount-11570697193
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-10-09/asian-stocks-set-to-rise-on-trade-talk-optimism-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/stock-market-today/dow-jones-today-moves-higher-as-trump-tweets-plan-for-trade-talks/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/09/us-futures-drop-after-chinese-media-reports-that-us-and-china-have-made-no-progress-in-trade-talks.html
Reuters:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-street-rises-on-hopes-of-u-s-china-trade-deal-idUSKBN1WP1QB
U.K:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/recharged-hopes-of-brexit-deal-trade-truce-power-uk-shares-idUKKBN1WP1QX
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/european-shares-rise-on-brexit-trade-deal-hopes-lvmh-shines-idUSKBN1WP0ST
Asia:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/asia-stocks-october-10-us-china-trade-talks-oil-currencies.html
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/bonds-treasury-yields-in-focus-as-investors-await-us-china-trade-talks.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/brexit-uk-and-irish-leaders-say-there-is-a-pathway-to-a-possible-deal.html
Oil
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/oil-markets-us-china-trade-talks-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/10/10/gold-markets-us-china-trade-talks-in-focus.html
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=eEZe-93MuYc
Spoke at a seminar with Jim Bianco in 1999 when he was just starting out. While economists have a much worst prediction record than stock market prognosticators I was always impressed with Jim’s acumen. He always seemed wise beyond his years. In the clip from two days ago he was firmly in the this time it is different camp (who isn’t) and low rates are here to stay. I hope he is right for many reasons but getting real uncomfortable with the rates have nowhere to go but down scenario. Eleven months ago everyone was in the camp rates had nowhere to go but up. What a difference a year makes, If I can remember will revisit this topic same time next year.

There are three recent changes at Vanguard that I'm aware of. For the reasons I describe below, I tend to view them as "non-events". Are these what you had in mind, or are there other changes that lead you to feel that Vanguard is making it more difficult to do business with them outside of Vanguard funds/ETFs?
Vanguard stopped selling explicitly leveraged (2x, 3x, etc.) and inverse ETFs last January. Since those funds almost have to be traded frequently, Vanguard never was a good platform for someone investing in these particular ETFs.
Vanguard recently terminated its cash management features. Very few of their customers were using these features anyway. One had to be a Voyager Select ($500K+ in Vanguard funds) to even have access to these features. Then Vanguard was still charging customers $30/year unless they had at least $1M invested in Vanguard funds. Little wonder almost no one used these services.
Vanguard is about to transfer the servicing of the Vanguard Variable Annuity to Transamerica. Your comment has to do with Vanguard making it difficult to buy non-Vanguard funds. Since the VA is made up of Vanguard funds, it's not the kind of investment that you were talking about.
Those are all the recent changes I know of where Vanguard has made it difficult to invest in certain products or have access to certain services. There certainly can be others, potentially more significant, that you had in mind.

FYI: Billionaire money manager Ken Fisher has come under fire for crass comments he was said to have made Tuesday as part of an exclusive fireside chat in front of financial services executives at The Ritz-Carlton, San Francisco.
In a video that amassed nearly 70,000 views within 16 hours of being shared to Twitter on Tuesday night, financial advisor Alex Chalekian called Fisher's comments, which were made on the second day of an invite-only summit hosted by Tiburon Security Advisors, "absolutely horrifying.”
According to Chalekian in the video, Fisher inappropriately referenced genitalia, Jeffrey Epstein and "tripping on acid." Wealth manager Rachel Robasciotti attended the event and told Bloomberg that Fisher, a former longtime Forbes columnist, compared building client trust to "trying to get into a girl's pants."
Regards,
Ted
https://www.forbes.com/sites/jonathanponciano/2019/10/09/billionaire-ken-fisher-blasted-online-after-offensive-comments-at-closed-door-fireside-chat/#2184133619ea