Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Retirees Thought GE Would Take Care Of Them. Then It Didn't
    The "funded" pension data is a factor of estimated future return. It was pretty typical in the '90s and 2000's for companies to use very unlikely return estimates to make it look like they were properly funded. Maybe it still is typical. I remember the Kodak pension plan using 8-10% return estimates to say they were 100% funded back in the day. The purpose of overstating future balance? I believe government rules say a company only has to put additional money into their pension fund IF that %-funded reaches a specific low level. So given the choice of counting money as current profit or addressing future liability, which do you think they'd choose?
  • Retirees Thought GE Would Take Care Of Them. Then It Didn't
    IBM's pension plan is relatively well funded. In the 90s and 00s its move to a cash balance plan cut its liabilities in a major way, but had the effect of discriminating against older workers. It settled a suit for $320 million. Mother Jones tacitly affirms that this was the end of legal actions against IBM, as its 2018 article about ongoing IBM age discrimination only mentions this one pension settlement.
    As of the end of 2016, IBM's remaining pension obligations were 98.4% funded according to the first source (based on company reports), and 89.9% funded according to Milliman (which also has 2017 data).
    https://www.pionline.com/article/20170417/INTERACTIVE/170419916/the-funded-status-of-corporate-pension-funds
    http://us.milliman.com/PFS/
    With respect to the subject of the original article, GE was underfunded by about 36% at the end of 2016 (according to the first source).
    For legal/actuarial wonks, here's a writeup from an employer-side legal firm on the legality of cash balance conversions. Note: this is really wonkish.
    https://www.littler.com/10th-circuit-puts-another-nail-coffin-cash-balance-plan-litigation
  • PDI
    I can't give you a yes or no answer because I don't know your total situation. I can tell you that PDI is still trading with at a premium, earning it's distribution, has a negative z-score and provides a +10% distribution.
    My average cost basis is still below the current market price and I am reinvesting the coming dividend. If 'I' had more money I might buy more shares but that's me. If I can't trust PIMCO to manage that part of my portfolio well .....
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    It’s beginning to resemble a mild correction. Just “ball-parking” the numbers on the Dow, it appears to be off around 10% (give or take) from the year’s high. I’m sure the NASDAQ is more badly beaten up than that.
    Re speculation elsewhere on the board that Individual #1 might invite Yellen back: She’d have to be crazy!
  • Chuck Jaffe's Money Life Show: Guest: David Snowball, Founder, MFO
    FYI: (Slide Mouse to 36:10 minutes for David Snowball interview.)
    Tom Lydon of ETFTrends.com made Aberdeen Standard Physical Palladium Shares his ETF of the Week, noting that it is trending -- above its 200-day moving average -- at a time when most investments have been hurting, and that it expands the alternative holdings in an investor's portfolio. Also, Chuck talks about how he set's goals for the New Year, Joe Boroff discusses Fidelity Investment's 10th annual Financial Resolutions Survey, and David Snowball of MutualFundObserver.com has the Market Call.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.stitcher.com/podcast/moneylife-with-chuck-jaffe
  • Retirees Thought GE Would Take Care Of Them. Then It Didn't
    FYI: Back in 1971, when he went to work at a General Electric Co. plant in upstate New York, John Phelps probably wasn’t naive in believing that the company would take care of him to the grave.
    That was reasonable in those days, when so many jobs in the U.S. still came with generous long-term benefits. And in fact, Phelps clocked out in 2013 at age 64 with a pension, a rare thing in the 21st century.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/retirees-thought-ge-would-take-care-of-them--then-it-didn-t-42448.html?print
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    I chose 4 funds I'm a bit familiar with just for the heck of graph city going back to May, 2011 and to look at the lines as to what anyone may consider a fair or not so fair price from those days, through today.
    >>>So, the chart funds.....well, Fido health is a decent long time, fairly broad based fund. Fido balanced, well within the high end of returns for similar funds. Fido Growth has a decent long term record and represents a broad group of growth stuff. ITOT is a kinda SP500 with a dash of mid and sm cap U.S.
    >>>The chart starts with May, 2011 when Europe was still having monetary fits and the soon to come downgrade of U.S. gov't issued debt put a bang in the equity markets for a spell. Moving along, part of the 2015 and 2016 period were sideways, as reflected in the charting. And on to now.........
    A semi random mix of equity types and bonds with FBALX, all U.S. directed. Non-U.S. is a different critter not covered here.
    Go ahead, its okay; decide for yourself. Any of these in the chart undervalued since 6 years or so ago? Me? I'm just a profit pig and attempt to buy as low as I think I "see" and sell with what seems a reasonable profit.
    I'll leave the link open for viewing the tickers.
    https://stockcharts.com/freecharts/perf.php?FSPHX,FBALX,FDGRX,ITOT&n=1922&O=011000
    OK........pillow time here.....good night.
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    In comparison, to Morningstar's valuation graph, Old_Skeet's market barometer has the S&P 500 Index at a reading of 180+ which marks it at extremely oversold on the barometer's scale by about 20%. For me to start buying equities at this point in time, in this falling market, I'd need to see a reversal in the barometer's reading. Currently, I've been just watching the action and building cash as my mutual funds are now making their year end distributions which I take in cash. I'd like to think we are working on a bottom; but, with rising interest rates it makes investing on margin more costly. And, with this, it seems, big money continues to deleverage as interest rates rise. In addition, short interest in the Index has been rising (not falling) as more and more investors are now shorting the Index.
    I've been reducing my allocation to equities by about 10% within my portfolio as interest rates continue to rise and have increased both my allocation to cash and to fixed income by about 5% each. I am pretty close in getting to my target allocation of 20% cash, 40% bonds and 40% stocks. Within equities I am favoring an overweight to the traditional defensive sectors plus a few others (real estate and telecom being two of them).
    Since, I am retired and my portfolio kicks off a good income stream I've elected to stay invested rather than selling out and lose the income stream plus I'd have a sizeable capital gains tax bill to pay as about 65% of my invested assets are in taxable accounts. My portfolio was built over time mostly through the organic growth of invested assets although I have done some trading as well.
    I have a fund (CTFAX) that has been buying stocks as the market pulls back. It is now in its 4th buy step. With each equity buy step that the fund makes increases the fund's equity allocation by about 5%. Currently, the fund is about 70% bonds and 30% equity. It is normally is about 90% bonds and 10% equity. As the market recovers and begins an upward move the fund then starts to sell down equites and load bonds. This fund has automated, for me, the special investment positions (spiffs) that I use to manually make. However, once the dust settles in my rebalance process I've been thinking of putting an equity spiff postion in play most likely in an equally weighted S&P 500 Index fund as there are currently, as I write, only 12% of the stocks in the 500 Index above their 50 day moving average. It seems few are looking at forward earnings as they continue to be relative strong with 2019 forward earnings estimates in the $170.00 range. At current valuation of 2507 / forward earnings of $170.00 = a forward P/E Ratio of 14.74. This equates to a forward earnings yield of about 6.8%. With this, it seems, to me, there is some good value to be had by being invested in equities.
    And, so-it-goes ... I wish all "Good Investing."
    Old_Skeet
    An update: With the market closing today (12/20/18) I am finding the S&P 500 Index at a reading of 2467. According to CTFAX's buy matrix the fund has now reached its 5th equity buy step. This should put bonds at about 65% and equities at 35%. I am also finding that the Index is off its 52 week high by about 15%. Hello ... Plundge Protection Team time to take some action.
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    M* says the market is 10% undervalued? For me, that's not enough margin of safety to increase my equity allocation in light of what I see as political risk. I also got burned a bit by following M*'s valuation advance during the GFC: all these stocks looked undervalued, then M* started cutting their estimates based on the changed scenario...
  • Morningstar Fair Market Value Chart -- Cheapest Since 2012
    I just returned from an "out of the country....away from the noise" trip and am catching up on recent happenings. Its interesting to see M* is now saying the market is the cheapest it has been since mid 2012. My gut suggests the economy will probably keep chugging along in 2019. So, I am scratching my head about how much cheaper the market will get in the near term. (I just added a little to my stock holdings today as part of my year-end rebalancing exercise.) Anyway, here is a link to the chart...click on MAX to see the long term version....
    https://morningstar.com/tools/market-fair-value-graph.html
  • Art Cashin: "Powell Will Try To Keep The Market Guessing"
    Well ... Individual #1 bitched about Sessions for over a year before getting up the nerve to fire him. So I’m guessing Powell will be around for a few more months. Of course you never can tell what’s coming next with this fella.
  • MFO Ratings Updated Through November 2018
    Mairs & Power past 7 years through November ...
    image
  • U.S. Equity Fund Sell-Off Tops $46B What's Next?
    I haven’t sold anything. Maybe pick up some bargains when I rebalance around January 1. Not the first time I’ve felt out of step.
    (As noted previously, am in process of moving some funds from one house to another - but the allocation to equities won’t change)
  • Oakmark International Fund to re-open to new investors
    I sold out of this fund in 2012 when it performed so poorly in 3Q 2011.
  • dupp pls delete... lol sorry Ted
    https://www.investmentnews.com/article/20181217/FREE/181219944/vanguard-combines-two-strong-funds-creating-a-25-billion-large-cap
    The combined Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund will cut two subadvisers, trim fees to 38 basis points
    By the end of March, investors in the $15.1 billion Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund (VMRAX) will be folded into the $10.2 billion Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund (VWUAX), the company announced Monday morning.
    (More:​ Vanguard wrestles with new service problems)
  • U.S. Equity Fund Sell-Off Tops $46B What's Next?
    https://www.nasdaq.com/article/us-equity-fund-sell-off-tops-46b-whats-next-cm1070066
    The U.S. equity mutual funds market witnessed the largest weekly sell-off between Dec 5 and 12, with investors redeeming $46 billion amid macroeconomic fears, per a report by Lipper. The data comes at a time when an ongoing stock market sell-off has pushed the broader S&P 500 index into correction
  • Oakmark International Fund to re-open to new investors
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872323/000110465918073225/a18-41291_1497.htm
    497 1 a18-41291_1497.htm 497
    Harris Associates Investment Trust
    Oakmark International Fund (the “Fund”)
    Supplement dated December 17, 2018 to the Fund’s Prospectus and Summary Prospectus, each dated January 26, 2018
    This supplement serves as notification of the following change:
    Effective December 17, 2018, the Fund will re-open to all investors. Accordingly, all references to the Fund being closed to most new investors are hereby deleted in their entirety from the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus, effective as of December 17, 2018.
    PLEASE RETAIN THIS SUPPLEMENT FOR FUTURE REFERENCE.
  • Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund to be reorganized
    https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/68138/000093247118008062/morgangrowth.htm
    497 1 morgangrowth.htm VANGUARD MORGAN GROWTH FUND
    Vanguard Morgan™ Growth Fund
    Supplement Dated December 17, 2018 to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated January 26, 2018
    Reorganization of Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund into Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund
    The Board of Trustees of Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund (the Trust) has approved an agreement and plan of reorganization (the Agreement) whereby Vanguard Morgan Growth Fund, a series of the Trust, would be reorganized with and into Vanguard U.S. Growth Fund, a series of Vanguard World Fund.
    The reorganization allows Morgan Growth Fund shareholders to merge to form a larger fund, with an identical objective of seeking to provide long-term capital appreciation. The reorganization will consolidate the assets of the Funds, and streamline the Vanguard fund lineup. We anticipate that the reorganization will eliminate duplicative expenses and spread fixed costs over a larger asset base of the combined fund.
    The reorganization does not require shareholder approval and is expected to close on or about April 5, 2019. Prior to the closing, shareholders of the Morgan Growth Fund will be issued a combined Information Statement/Prospectus, which will describe the reorganization, provide a description of the U.S. Growth Fund, and include a comparison of the Funds.
    Under the Agreement and after the closing, shareholders of the Morgan Growth Fund will receive Investor Shares and Admiral Shares of the U.S. Growth Fund in exchange for their Investor Shares and Admiral Shares of the Morgan Growth Fund, respectively, and the Morgan Growth Fund and the Trust will cease operations, and be liquidated.
    We anticipate that the reorganization will qualify as a tax-free reorganization under the Internal Revenue Code of 1986, as amended.
    Closed to New Accounts
    Effective immediately, the Morgan Growth Fund is closed to new accounts, and will stop accepting purchase requests from existing accounts shortly before the reorganization is scheduled to occur.
    Restructuring of the Investment Advisory Team
    The following advisors of the Morgan Growth Fund have been approved to serve as advisors to the combined fund after the completion of the reorganization: Jennison Associates LLC (Jennison), Vanguard Quantitative Equity Group (QEG), and Wellington Management Company LLP (Wellington Management). Jennison and Wellington Management currently serve as advisors of the U.S. Growth Fund. Two of the other advisors in U.S. Growth Fund, Jackson Square Partners, LLC (Jackson Square), and Baillie Gifford Overseas Ltd. (Baillie Gifford), will continue with the U.S. Growth Fund. QEG will be added after the closing of the reorganization. Both Funds operate under the terms of an SEC exemption, whereby each Fund’s Board of Trustees may, without prior approval from shareholders, hire a new advisor. Vanguard may also recommend to the Board of Trustees of the Funds that an advisor be hired, terminated, or replaced, or that the terms of an existing advisory agreement be revised.
    The Board of Trustees of the Trust has also approved a restructuring of the Morgan Growth Fund’s investment advisory team, removing Frontier Capital Management Co., LLC (Frontier Capital), as an investment advisor for the Fund effective immediately. All references to Frontier Capital and all other details and descriptions regarding Frontier Capital’s management of certain assets of the Fund in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus are hereby deleted in their entirety.
    In addition, Paul E. Marrkand, CFA of Wellington Management will no longer serve as portfolio manager for the Morgan Growth Fund and will be replaced by Andrew J. Shilling, CFA, also of Wellington Management. All references to Mr. Marrkand in the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus are hereby deleted in their entirety...