Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I think international ex-USA funds should see more positivity in the future. The only US sector I'm bullish on are utilities.
    IMO we are in the early stages of a seismic, but quiet, re-ordering of the global economy over the next 10-15 years. Specifically, I think the world economy and/or money flows will pivot to working WITH (or AROUND) the United States as a partner, not THROUGH the United States as a requirement. Could that become the proverbial 'New World Order'?
    The current regime, backed by its complicit Congressional enablers and a history of biparitsan whistling-past-the-gravegard, is showing that America cannot be relied upon anymore as a stable partner in business, economics, markets, defense, etc, etc. Tariff Toddler's on-again, off-again proclaimations are not confidence-building or reassuring other nations, let alone businesses. And then seeing our nation's 'leaders' gleefully adding more to our debt again on the very day our credit rating gets (again) downgraded is just another example of the current folks in DC acting irresponsibly and figuring deep down that the music will never stop.
  • Tariffs
    CNN

    President Donald Trump said Sunday that he has agreed to delay a 50% tariff on European Union imports until July 9, the latest instance of Trump declaring an impending tariff and throwing markets into confusion only to later walk back the threatened levies.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    These are many tempting ideas to read for one who has 95% of his egg in FIGXX earning 4.17%
    Normally chasing a few basis points isn't worth the effort, but with 95% in MMFs, you might take a look at VUSXX. Its seven day yield is 4.23%. And last year it was 100% state tax exempt (vs about 1/2 for FIGXX). For someone in a 5% income tax rate state, that would save about 0.20% in taxes vs. 0.10% with FIGXX.
    After tax, VUSXX does about 1/6% better. For pocket cash, or even "money awaiting investment", that may not be worth the effort.
    It's also relatively accessible. Just a $3K min, and it's available through E*Trade (for those who decline to transact with Vanguard).
    Or you could roll short maturity Treasuries. Fidelity reports 3 month Treasuries as yielding 4.32%. (Estimated yield on auction 3-month T-bill is 4.31%.) About the same as VUSXX and you don't have to go to another institution to buy.
  • lovable losers? The WSJ on active ETFs
    Barron's article simply mentioned that "...JEPI has about two-thirds the volatility of the market...", but didn't offer any explanation.
    True, the equity portfolio of JEPI has more conservative, dividend-paying stocks. And Morningstar shows 86.49% equity exposure with the rest in Other (options on SP500 + some cash).
    Assuming JEPI equity similar to VYM (3-yr Relative SD 0.8546 by TestFol) and applying M* % equity, I get to Relative SD 0.7391 for JEPI.
    Repeating this calculation with VIG, I get 3-yr Relative SD 0.7289 for JEPI.
    That is still too far from TestFol 3-yr Relative SD 0.6512 (almost 2/3 rd) for JEPI. So, I am missing something in JPM's secret sauce.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I fully appreciate the developing problems here in the US, but hopefully we should look beyond the current administration for the longer term picture.
    @Old_Joe, I hear you. Slow growth has been a persistent issue in EU as the article highlighted the financing challenges, especially high tech startups. European index is trading at a lower multiple reflects lower earnings and slower growth comparing to those in US.
    Having said that, the Europe index diverged from S&P 500 considerably due to the depreciating dollar; 20% (unhedged) vs -1%, respectively. Will this trend revert to the mean at the longer timeframe beyond this administration? Honestly, no one really knows.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    PRWCX is available in Merrill accounts. I dip-bought a bunch a month ago and it's up 7% --- luck.
    These are many tempting ideas to read for one who has 95% of his egg in FIGXX earning 4.17%.
  • lovable losers? The WSJ on active ETFs
    I took another look at JEPI. While it hasn't been exposed to a bear market, 2022 and 2025YTD have been tough years. JEPI is consistently superior to OEF GATEX (that also uses protective puts) and equivalent allocation 65%SPY + 35%BND; note that Relative SD of JEPI is 0.65 wrt SP500.
    For an individual stock, covered-call limits the upside in exchange for the call premium, but doesn't limit the downside. So, something in the fund structure of JEPI is leading to lower volatility. My guesses for reasons include (i) lower equity exposures, (ii) more conservative equity holdings, (iii) upside caps (that trim some volatility), (iv) execution of the options strategies & (v) redeployment of premium & other proceeds (e.g. when the stocks get called away). But I cannot point to a single dominant cause.
    Similar observations can be made for JEPQ in relation to QQQ (Nasdaq 100).
    https://testfol.io/?s=kRhewIHNMLw
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I kind of like some absolute return and market neutral funds. My favorites, which are EGRIX, BDMAX, and QMNNX keep chugging along. They have done well this year during an uncertain environment.
    +1
    Add to it QLENX.
    Another option is to own the best categories/funds. Europe (VGK) signaled it since 02/2025.
    https://schrts.co/qqqMxnXW
  • January MFO Ratings Posted
    Last night, posted all ratings to MFO Premium site, using Refinitiv data drop from Friday, 23 May 2025. FLOW tool is now updated daily.
  • ‘Absolute tsunami’ of ETFs to hit market
    Vanguard has been careless in merging some of its OEFs. After ignoring related investor complaints, it had to settle with the SEC on this
    What Vanguard was careless about was how it went about reducing the min of its institutional clones of TDFs. Not the merger per se.
    Reducing the min triggered a mass migration of smaller sized employer-sponsored retirement plans from the retail funds to the institutional funds. The result was a huge sell-off (and recognized gains) in the retail funds. Individual investors with shares in taxable accounts were left holding the bag - a huge tax bill.
    Shortly thereafter, Vanguard merged the institutional funds with the retail funds.
    Had Vanguard not reduced the min for institutions, or had Vanguard reduced the min subsequent to merging the funds, no sales and no gains would have been triggered.
    I haven't checked the prospectuses of these new ETFs, but Vanguard allows tax-free conversions of its mutual funds/OEFs to their ETF classes that may have lower ERs (typically similar as Admiral OEF ERs), but not the reverse.
    See https://www.chapman.com/media/publication/15122_IL-0224-Coyle-Pershkow-Warren.pdf
    This highlights another benefit to Mutual Fund Class shareholders of Perpetual’s proposed structure (also a featured part of the original Vanguard model, the DFA Application, and the First Trust Application, the Fidelity Application). The structure outlined in the Perpetual Application contains a conversion privilege that allows for a shareholder seamlessly convert from a Mutual Fund Class to the ETF Class.[fn 17]
    17 Unlike the Perpetual Application, the DFA Application, the Fidelity Application, the First Trust Application, and the original Vanguard application, the F/m Application proposes a conversion privilege whereby an ETF shareholder could convert its ETF shares to mutual fund shares. The F/m Application, however, does not address whether this structure would function essentially as an open-ending mechanism. Any time shareholders are displeased with the spread or premium/discount of their ETF shares, they could move to the mutual fund and redeem at net asset value (NAV). This could have at least one major unintended consequence: market makers and liquidity providers who regularly purchase and sell creation units will be disincentivized to make markets or provide liquidity, thereby stressing the ETF’s arbitrage mechanism.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    Many years ago I looked into ways of investing in currencies when Fidelity (among others) offered currency funds.
    Invesco CurrencyShares® ETFs (e.g. FXE, FXF) are one way to play currencies. The YTD gains reported above include both changes in premium (spread of market price over NAV has increased) and interest (these ETFs can pay interest).
    From the M* chart for FXE here the YTD figures are:
    NAV (representing currency movement less expenses): +9.47%
    NAVwDivs (representing the above plus interest earned): +10.09%
    Price (representing NAV gain + increased premium): +9.65%
    Price+Divs (representing the above plus interest earned): +10.27%
    Thus, interest earned YTD = (10.27% - 9.65%) = (10.09% - 9.47%) = 0.62%.
    Compounded to annual yield: 1.0062 ^ (365/144) (days) - 1 = 1.58%
    Another way to invest in currency is to open foreign currency accounts at banks. Perhaps the most well known is Everbank. It wasn't competitive when I looked at it years ago and doesn't seem to be competitive now. (It is offering 0.10% APY on a three month Euro CD.) There are other banks that offer foreign currency accounts. The one I remember is Cathay bank.
    Dollar weakness seems to be due to worldwide disinvestment in the US attributed to increasing uncertainty in the US generally (regulatory environment, tax regimen, tariffs, etc.). Somewhat counterbalancing this are higher interest rates in the US - the Fed has not reduced rates recently (due to inflation concerns) while other central banks have continued to do so.
    WSJ, Why the Fed Isn’t Ready to Join Other Central Banks in Cutting Rates, May 8, 2025.
    The Fed cut its benchmark short-term rate by 1 percentage point in the second half of 2024 ... The European Central Bank, meanwhile, has cut its benchmark rate seven times in the last year by a combined 1.75 percentage points. The Bank of England on Thursday cut its benchmark rate to 4.25% from 4.5%. It was the bank’s fourth cut since last summer.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?

    larryB,
    many of us long for the day, but consider Prof. Peter Atwater in 2025, for the first time, states that geographies and leaders (i.e., macropolitics) should be the first priority in investing, displacing the traditional top 3 (valuation, sentiment, management)
    e.g., even if you believe technicals are your main focus, as a foreign owner of a chinese ADR, can you be confident macro positioning is likely to be one where your interests are the priority of the country and CCP?
    i wont go any further into addressing this, but it was not clear you were looking for a multi-asset answer.
  • ‘Absolute tsunami’ of ETFs to hit market
    Passive voice in CNBC piece: "are expected". Who is expecting, and why?
    The current SEC rules and regulations require funds to seek "exemptive relief" from the SEC. Generally all share classes of a fund must be treated equally. That's not true of ETF shares. Hence the need for relief.
    ETF shareholders cannot purchase and redeem shares at NAV (they must trade at market price in a secondary market). There are other inequities as well. When funds seek exemptive relief, they include plans for how they will deal with various differences between the share classes.
    https://www.chapman.com/media/publication/15122_IL-0224-Coyle-Pershkow-Warren.pdf
    (For those interested in fund mechanics, this is an interesting nine page (plus notes) piece that doesn't get bogged down in legalize. The first few pages are of more general interest, describing the differences between ETF class shares and OEF class shares.)
    Another example is brokerage fees. OEF shareholders pay these fees (though they're not included in the ER calculation). They purchase shares for cash which a fund then uses to buy securities, thus incurring brokerage fees. In contrast, authorized participants buy ETF shares with creation baskets of securities already purchased. No brokerage fees involved. There are various ways a fund can deal with this disparity. A request for exemptive relief has to spell this out.
    The former acting SEC chairman, Mark Uyeda, "directed staff to prioritize the review of more than fifty applications for relief that had been unprocessed for as long as two years."
    https://www.institutionalinvestor.com/article/2em6tlqjoggjytyhjgjy8/corner-office/etfs-may-become-just-another-share-class-if-sec-approves-dimensionals-latest-regulatory-ask (April 1)
    Maybe that's what's supposed to open the floodgates. But Uyeda was appointed back in January. So why the CNBC piece now, and not in January, or a month ago (related to the Uyeda quote above)?
    The only thing I see that has happened since then is that Paul Atkins was sworn in as SEC chairman on April 21. He is not expected to change much from what Uyeda was doing. "Chairman Atkins thus has arrived at an already changed agency."
    https://www.whitecase.com/insight-alert/sec-enforcement-20-chairman-atkins-has-arrived
    A concern with actively managed ETFs (already discussed in an older thread) is that pragmatically they cannot close to new investment when capacity is reached. So this is something to monitor when purchasing an actively managed ETF. Soon OEF fund investors will also need to monitor capacity if their funds begin to offer ETF class shares.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    I don't see The Economist article either. I did a search on all Economist pieces since March 1 containing the word "Europe" (there are 267). The vast majority are under 1,000 words. Several are between 1,000 and 2,000 words in length (typically around 1,200). Only a 8 (3%) are over 2,000 words. Most of those are not on point, the two relevant ones aren't as bleak as you describe:
    • If it comes to a stand-off, Europe has leverage over America, March 13, 2,688 words.
      Almost all the steps it [Europe] could take would be self-harming, even if they inflicted even greater damage on America. For that reason among others, getting European leaders, a fissiparous bunch at the best of times, to agree on a concerted response to American bullying would be a feat. But if they resolved to fight back, they have plenty of ways to do so.
    • As Donald Trump's trade war heats up, China is surprisingly confident, April 3, 2,632 words.
    • Your guide to the new anti-immigration argument, March 13, 2,545 words
    • Emigration from Africa will change the world, April 24, 2,522 words
    • Would Vladimir Putin attack NATO?, May 8, 2,520 words
    • Can the world's free-traders withstand Trump's attack?, April 2, 2,496 words
      Much may hinge on what Europe does next. The EU and its open-market allies could form a formidable bloc—co-ordinating responses to American tariffs and pulling China in a more free-trading direction.
    • Aid cannot make poor countries rich, March 6, 2,159 words
    • Will Jamie Dimon build the first trillion-dollar bank?, May 22, 2,184 words.
    Whether it remains true that "when America sneezes the world catches a cold" (cf. Klemens von Metternich referring to France and Europe) remains to be seen.
    Still I agree that European stocks may not prove to be the safe refuge people are looking for, having asked: The question remains: ... will they [foreign equities] continue to have positive returns?
  • ‘Absolute tsunami’ of ETFs to hit market
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/23/markets-investing-etfs-new-trading-strategies.html
    "Soon, as many as 3,000 new ETFs are expected to launch in an ‘absolute tsunami’ triggered by the Securities and Exchange Commission allowing traditional mutual funds to offer an ETF share class.
    Currently, there are around 4,000 ETFs.
    The article mentions an estimate that roughly 53 mutual fund firms have filed for the ETF share class extension, and the thousands of new funds covered will lead to an “enormous burden on individual investors and advisors to wade through that stuff”.
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    European stocks have done really well this year.
    VGK (Europe) returned 17.9% while EZU (Eurozone) returned 22.1%.
    Stock markets in Poland, Austria, Greece, and Spain generated returns greater than 32%.
    Returns are as of 5/13/2025.
    https://bilello.blog/wp-content/uploads/2025/05/country-etfs-5-14.png
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    PRPFX has worked well this year thanks to a 20% gold allocation. It's +9.65% YTD.
    QMNNX - AQR Market Neutral fund has held up very nicely. Up +13.89% YTD.
    Now, if only their recent performance was some kind of indicator ("guarantee") of future performance......
  • What Type of Fund might survive or thrive in this unprecedented environment?
    The main concern with doing simple (straight line) extrapolations is that they assume nothing will change.”
    Yes. Could have worded my comment better. And nothing ”run of the mill” about the pretty good funds I listed.
    ”projecting out what that rate of return would produce through an entire year.”
    Maybe instead -”representing an annual rate-of-return of roughly … “ ?
    I circumvented @LarryB ‘s question which was more along the lines of “What may do well?” rather than ”What has already done well?” Like most here, I don’t make predictions. My four core holdings (15.5% each) are: global infrastructure, real assets, limited-term preferreds and a long-short equity fund. While that may indicate where I’m leaning, it in no way assures where markets will go.
    Investment choices should relate to situation and time-horizon … Andrew Marvell might well have been speaking of investing: ”Had we but world enough and time, This coyness, lady, were no crime.”
    :)
  • Barron’s May 26 Cover Story - “Sports Betting - A Race Against Time”
    Outstanding socially responsible article from a leading financial publication. Couldn’t agree more with their conclusions and deep concerns. It occurs to me, however, that the same addictive personalities probably gamble in other ways like day-trading stocks or taking on excessive debt. Delinquencies on auto loans increasing.
    A few excerpts:
    ”Addiction experts say a public-health time bomb is ticking.”
    - After four years of back and forth, Kentucky in 2023 passed a bill to legalize sports betting beyond thoroughbred racing. To win over a group of holdouts in the state Senate, lawmakers added a problem gambling assistance account to the legislation. It earmarked 2.5% of the state's new gambling tax revenue to fund workforce training, treatment, and research. The remainder goes to the state's pension fund for public employees.
    - DraftKings, FanDuel, and BetMGM were among the gambling firms that advocated for the bill. In total, the industry spent $443,000 lobbying the Kentucky legislature in 2023, state records show. DraftKings was enthusiastic about the bill's passage. In August 2023, the company boosted its revenue outlook for the year, calling out $20 million in new revenue expected from Kentucky in the final three months of the year. Soon after, DraftKings told investors it had signed up more than 5% of Kentucky's adult population within five weeks of going live in the state.

    - The betting trend has played out much the same way across the U.S. Americans now wager roughly $150 billion a year on sports, and 48% of American men under 50 have an account on a digital sportsbook at sites like DraftKings, FanDuel, ESPNBet, and BetMGM, according to a Siena College survey.
    - The challenge for policymakers trying to regulate gambling is its almost magical benefits to state coffers.
    Gambling is "a very effective way to get more state budget without having to raise taxes," says Heather Wardle, a professor of gambling research and policy at the University of Glasgow. Once gambling revenue is supporting pension funds, infrastructure, and other state priorities, Wardle says, "it's very hard to then roll back from that."

    - An 11-year study ending in 2016 & found that one in five people with a gambling disorder had attempted suicide. The National Council on Problem Gambling estimates 1% of American adults, or 2.5 million people, meet the criteria. The federal government, which collected roughly $370 million in federal excise tax on sports gambling last year, has no programs in place for that group. The U.S. Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration, by contrast, has an annual budget of $7 billion.
    - "When you think of the Derby, you think of beautiful hats, stately horses, mint juleps, pageantry, pomp and circumstance, and the fun that's involved," Clark says. "You don't think of somebody out back getting ready to shoot themselves because they bet $10,000 on a horse and they're not going to be able to make their house payment."

    Personal note: As a long time DraftKings customer my sports bets are limited to less than $1 on average per day and only while actively viewing a game. (Minimum wager is 50-cents.) I am appalled that the site relentlessly and flagrantly “pushes” those who log in to play games of chance like ”Roulette” & ”Black Jack” and to deposit additional sums (usually via debit card). Lord help those who take the bait. Certainly, the article has summoned up reservations about my continued participation on moral grounds.
    * Excerpts in italics from: ”America’s Sports Betting Boom Is About to Backfire” - by Nick Devor (Print Ed.) Barron’s - dated May 26, 2025
    image