Drilling down into the S&P 500 sectors for recession proof industries (showing little draw down on profit margins during the last two recessions):
- Tobacco (Consumer Staples)
- Household Products (Consumer Staples)
- Healthcare Equipment (Healthcare)
- Pharmaceutical (Healthcare)
- Industrial Gases (Materials)
Surprise (to me):
- The profit margins for the Health Sector as a whole has steadily fallen from 12.5% (in 1995) to 9% (in 2018)
Boring, but steady sectors:
- Healthcare Distribution
- Drug Retail
- Glass & Metal Containers
Also,
Oct 3, 2018 follow up report by Ed Yardeni: Performance 2018 S&P 500 Sectors & Industries
https://yardeni.com/pub/peacockperf.pdf

Ed Yardeni is often highlighted here by MFO posters linked by many here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/search?Search=yardeni
This morning I stumbled upon this report titled: Stock Market Briefing: S&P 500 Sectors and Industries Profit Margins dated October 4, 2018.
Profit Margins and the price of the S&P 500 Index seem to be "in the moment" indicators and comparing the two seems to be one data point to follow. Since 2017, the S&P 500 index seems to be out pacing (being priced up) above profit margins which is captured in chart 7 (S&P 500 vs trailing profit margins) in his report:

Report (lots of charts):
yardeni.com/pub/sp500margin.pdf

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1018593/000114420418052254/tv504130_497.htm
497 1 tv504130_497.htm VIRTUS ASSET TRUST
Virtus Conservative Allocation Strategy Fund
and Virtus Growth Allocation Strategy Fund,
each a series of Virtus Asset Trust
Supplement dated October 3, 2018 to the Summary Prospectuses,
Statutory Prospectus and Statement of Additional Information,
each dated July 23, 2018, as supplemented
THIS SUPPLEMENT SUPERCEDES THE SUPPLEMENT DATED SEPTEMBER 25, 2018 TO THE ABOVE-REFERENCED PROSPECTUSES AND SAI. THIS SUPPLEMENT REVISES THE LIQUIDATION DATE NOTICE IN THE EARLIER SUPPLEMENT.
Important Notice to Investors
On September 19, 2018, the Board of Trustees of the Virtus Asset Trust voted to liquidate the Virtus Conservative Allocation Strategy Fund and Virtus Growth Allocation Strategy Fund (the “Funds”). Based on the recommendation of management, the Trustees determined that liquidation is in the best interest of the shareholders and voted to direct the mandatory redemption of all shares of the Funds. Effective October 16, 2018, the Funds will be closed to new investors and additional investor deposits.
On or about November 13, 2018 (the “Liquidation Date”), each of the Funds will be liquidated at its net asset value. Prior to such time, shareholders may exchange their shares of the Funds for shares of the same class of any other Virtus Mutual Fund. Shareholders may also redeem their shares at any time prior to the Funds’ liquidation on the Liquidation Date. There will be no fee or sales charges associated with exchange or redemption requests.
Any shares not exchanged or redeemed by the close of business on the Liquidation Date will be redeemed and the account value distributed to shareholders, except shares held in BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts, which will be exchanged for shares of the Virtus Newfleet Low Duration Income Fund. Shareholders with BNY Mellon IS Trust Company custodial accounts should consult the prospectus for the Virtus Low Duration Income Fund for information about that fund.
Because the exchange or redemption of your shares could be a taxable event, we suggest you consult with your tax advisor prior to the Funds’ liquidation.
Investors should retain this supplement with the Prospectuses and
Statement of Additional Information for future reference.
VAT 8622/CAS&GASFundsClosing (10/2018)

I could be wrong, but I believe Uncle Sam requires RMDs in order to collect on the deferred taxes. You don't have to spend your RMDs but you do have to pay the taxes.
59.5 & 70.5...what's up with these ".5''s?

"What I'd really like to at least do is get rid of the '.5,'" he says. "The 70 1/2 age causes a lot of confusion, especially for people born in June or July. We should just make it the year that you turn a certain age."

The Boglehead's Wiki has an interesting approach to retirement withdrawals called, "Variable Percentage Withdrawal (VPW)".

Variable percentage withdrawal (VPW) is a withdrawal method that adapts to the retiree's retirement horizon, asset allocation, and portfolio returns during retirement. It combines the best ideas of the constant-dollar, constant-percentage, and 1/N withdrawal methods to allow the retiree to spend most of his portfolio using return-adjusted withdrawals. By adapting withdrawals to market returns, VPW will never prematurely deplete the portfolio.
The VPW method uses a variable (increasing) percentage to determine withdrawals from a portfolio during retirement. Each year, the withdrawal is determined by multiplying that year's percentage by the current portfolio balance at the time of withdrawal.
The VPW method and spreadsheet were collaboratively developed and improved by a group of Bogleheads®

https://bogleheads.org/wiki/Variable_percentage_withdrawal

FYI: Susan Dziubinski from Morningstar.com said, it isn't easy for a fund to earn our top Morningstar fund analyst rating of Gold. Funds that do so are best in breed, models in their respective categories. In fact, fewer than 200 funds across dozens of fund categories earn Gold ratings. Here are three funds that recently joined the Gold-rated fund club.
Regards,
Ted
https://www-prd.morningstar.com/videos/884151/3-newish-goldrated-funds.html

FYI: An investor holding a simple S&P 500 index fund continues to beat major university endowments.
Yale University and other major endowments have recently reported investment performance for their fiscal years ending in June, and none have topped the S&P 500, which returned 14.4% including dividends.
Yale returned 12.3%; Harvard University, 10.0%; the University of Pennsylvania, 12.9%; and Dartmouth College, 12.2%.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/ivy-league-endowments-1538530379

FYI: Tax-deferred retirement saving isn't forever. At age 70 1/2, you must start withdrawing funds from 401(k) and IRA accounts. Yet many retirees find the required minimum distribution rules burdensome, and surprisingly large numbers would prefer not to draw down funds at all.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.morningstar.com/articles/884105/should-rmd-rules-be-reformed.html

@MFO Members: "underwear all bunched up" not me, I wear !
Regards,
Ted :)

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/872649/000119312518288720/d629055d497.htm
497 1 d629055d497.htm LOOMIS SAYLES FUNDS II
LOOMIS SAYLES SMALL CAP GROWTH FUND
Supplement dated October 1, 2018 to the Prospectus of the Loomis Sayles Small Cap Growth
Fund, dated February 1, 2018, as may be revised and supplemented from time to time.
Effective October 1, 2018, the Loomis Sayles Small Cap Growth Fund will reopen to new investors and will begin accepting orders for the purchase of shares from new investors.
Accordingly, all references to the Loomis Sayles Small Cap Growth Fund being closed to new investors are hereby removed from the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus.

Jurrien Timmer has been posting an interesting chart on Twitter that concerns EM:
https://twitter.com/timmerfidelity/status/1045381216080474120?s=21
What do they mean by “hard currency “. Is that US dollar denominated?

FYI: After I pulled one old column out of my archives, I found another piece — from an old “mailbag” feature in which I answered questions from readers — in which I had said essentially the same thing in a more frivolous tone. I post it now mainly as a reminder that whenever people start questioning the value of diversification — as countless investors did in late 1998, 1999, and early 2000 — overconcentration and overconfidence must be on the rise, and the risk of being underdiversified is likely to materialize. I don’t think we’re there yet in 2018, but you should always be vigilant against the risk of believing that risks have been repealed. Look carefully at the letter the reader sent me. If you ever hear anyone else — or yourself! — sound like that, it’s time to broaden your portfolio
Regards,
Ted
http://jasonzweig.com/in-defense-of-diversification/

FYI: Emerging market assets, especially equities, are poised to rebound in the fourth quarter from a steep selloff earlier this year, BlackRock said on Tuesday, adding that it favors emerging market hard currency over local currency debt.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-emerging-markets-blackrock/blackrock-emerging-market-assets-especially-stocks-set-to-rise-in-fourth-quarter-idUSKCN1MC1N9

FYI: Welcome to autumn !
Regards,
Ted
https://www.mutualfundobserver.com/2018/10/october-1-2018/

Hi @AndyJ: Thanks for stopping by and for making comment. Many of us on the board are in or near retirement. For myself, being in retirement, I have been reducing my equity allocation over the past five years, or so, from upwards towards 70% now down to the low 50% range. I am also in the process of raising my fixed income allocation (currently around 27%) up towards 30% or better over the next year or so. I plan to do this at a pace of about 1% per quarter until I reach an allocation I feel comfortable with. Even in retirement I thinking I need a good bit of equity exposure so my five year asset allocation target is to be somewhere around 40% fixed, 40% equity and 20% cash and cd's by then.
Since, you feel a good number of the threads are geared more towards equities (over income) why not become more active and start posting what you are seeing on the fixed income side of investing? Interestingly, on my buy list my 1 week and 1 month leaders, that I follow, I'm finding a good number are fixed income funds. Since, the US 10 Yr is now paying 3 percent, or better, I'm beginning to see most of my funds found in my fixed income sleeve starting to make an upward move. I'd think that now that interest rates are rising their nav's would be going the other way. Interesting? Yes.
Any way FWIW ... I'm thinking you'd draw a good following.
Thanks again for stopping by and for making comment.
Old_Skeet

FYI: Investors can defer paying capital gains taxes on profits earned on the sale of stocks and real property by participating in a new federal program that promotes investment in municipalities across the nation.
Created to encourage long-term investment of unrealized capital gains in low-income urban and rural communities, the Opportunity Zone Program was signed into law late last year under the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017. Under the program, investors who sell appreciated assets can invest the proceeds within 180 days of the sale into qualified opportunity funds to defer paying capital gains taxes. Three new funds started this year under the program, but they aren’t without some risks.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.fa-mag.com/news/a-new-way-for-clients-to-postpone-capital-gains-taxes-41115.html?print

best 3
WWNPX +22.52 --This fund has an outrageous management fee of 1.64%, has a large cash position and an extremely high allocation to a land holding company as its top position. I really can't recommend it.
POGRX +17.50
FCNTX +16.85
worst 3
MSILX (4.46)
DODFX (6.39)
FAIRX (14.60) --This fund has a very full management fee of over 1%, has a large cash position and an extremely high allocation to a land holding company as its top position. I really can't recommend it.

Typical year really, some up, some down and many basically standing still.
FCNTX - 16.85%
POAGX - 17.35
DSENX - 13.2
MGGPX - 11.2
MTUM - 16.3
THQ - 15.4
SFGIX - (9.26)
MAPIX - (3.15)
UTG - (2.66)

This article suggests this segment of the bond market still offers attractive returns....

“There’s a significant double-digit return in the legacy market that will exist for the foreseeable future,"

https://bloomberg.com/news/articles/2018-10-01/beaten-down-subprime-mortgage-bonds-offered-a-decade-of-gains?srnd=fixed-income

DSEEX = a hair under 13.5% ytd and 6.4% since Feb 1
PCI 7.4% ytd
TRBCX 8.2% since Feb 1 (do not own)

@VF: The institutional Kopernik International fund gets 5 stars from M*; your $1M minimum buys you 36% cash and 60% basic materials (read gold and oil). The fund went to the top of the class in 2016, then promptly did a complete turn-around in 2017. Now it seems there will be an investor class of shares. I ain't tempted. Strangely, the Kopernik Global does not hold oodles of cash and has a pretty middling record.