FYI: Modern monetary theory is not so theoretical anymore. In all but name, it’s the description of Republican fiscal policy in this living moment. “Federal Borrowing Soars as Deficit Fear Fades,” said the headline on page one of Tuesday’s Wall Street Journal. For the second year in a row, the Trump administration is spending $1 trillion more than the government expects to extract from the taxpayers.
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/jim-grant-the-trouble-with-modern-monetary-theory-51564740001?mod=djem_b_Weekly Feed for Barrons Magazine

FYI: This is a follow-up article, and couldn't think of a better way in making my 30,000 link than an article by our own MFO member Lewis Braham.)
No one ever said day trading was easy. But maybe night trading is.
According to a July report from Bespoke Investment Group, essentially all market gains since 1993—as represented by the SPDR S&P 500 Trust exchange-traded fund (ticker: SPY)—have come outside of hours when the market is actually open for trading. “Had you bought at the close every day and sold at the next trading day’s open, you’d be up 672% right now (not even including dividends),” writes Justin Walters, the report’s author and Bespoke’s co-founder. “Had you done the opposite and bought at the open every trading day and sold at the close that same day, you’d be down 11.5%.”
Regards,
Ted
https://www.barrons.com/articles/a-successful-after-hours-trading-pattern-is-broken-by-trumps-tweets-51564789699?mod=past_editions

@AndyJ et al
Usually a decent overview and thoughts regarding credit markets and debt issues related. If you've a few extra minutes in the schedule, have a view.
Bloomberg Real Yield program, Aug. 2 (22 minute video)
Good evening,
Catch

James Baldwin, born this day 95y ago: “I love America more than any other country in this world, and, exactly for this reason, I insist on the right to criticize her perpetually.” (~1955)

Long Treasuries are killing it, and the 3m/10y inversion I mentioned recently on another Catch thread is up into nosebleed territory. Hard to imagine the yield drop's going to continue more than a day or two longer (if that) at this pace, in the short term anyway.
Got caught w/o any long Ts, but muni funds, PTIAX, and PRSNX are making up for it. The smaller than normal stakes I have in PCI and PDI are doing fine, but not contributing a lot to gains now since I took most of the ytd profits on them and PCN earlier.

Yes, I was amazed at PTIAX yesterday. Up again today. I took 56% of my PRSNX and bought that much of RPSIX today. Was it a happy coincidence, or a major blunder? After I'd seen that PRSNX is carrying a bit more risk than I like, and its div shrank in June and July, I decided it was time. I am not particularly attracted to any fund full of other funds, but with the added bit (13%) of equities in its portfolio, I am rather comfortable with RPSIX. PRSNX was up today, and RPSIX was down by just a penny. But these are not equity funds, anyhow... Eventually, I suppose I'll start taking the divs rather than re-investing it all.

Hope this ties in OK with David’s sentiments:
In 1901, British author G. K. Chesterton wrote in his book "The Defendant": “My country, right or wrong' is a thing that no patriot would think of saying except in a desperate case. It is like saying 'My mother, drunk or sober.'” https://www.thoughtco.com/my-country-right-or-wrong-2831839
Better known is this one: “My country, right or wrong; if right, to be kept right; and if wrong, to be set right.”
(Carl Schulz:)

@hank
Generally..........investment grade corp. bonds were up in price yesterday about 1%. OUSGX is about 61% invested in U.S. corp. bonds.

Anyone making short term portfolio adjustments to capture bond fund capital appreciation as rates move down?
PTIAX had a .51% gain yesterday.

I anticipated a direct post related to bond yields actions, prior to this 8:50 am, EST, post.
Short on time today, but IMHO; one needs to give attention to the bond yield drops.
Bond yields have had significant moves in the past few days, and yesterday in particular. As a reference, the UST, 10 year had a yield change drop, that in math terms is about 9% since Thursday morning.
Had this 9% been for SPY, SP-500 or related similar equity market; one would be seeing and reading very large headlines.
It is my continued opinion that one needs to continue to observe investment grade bond yields to help maintain a "feel" for the overall health and direction of the equity markets.
This yield action may be a quick flash for whatever reasons drive these movements from the large players. I'm not formally trained in economics, but a long time observer.
Your investment grade bond holdings should have seen significant positive price movements yesterday, August 1 and early indicators today suggest the same for today (August 2). Investment grade bonds have had very decent gains YTD.
Hang in there,
Catch

This prompted me to take a look at my one “alternative” fund. That’s TMSRX from T. Rowe, which is approximately one year old. It’s an odd-duck in itself, relying on 5 different managers, each responsible for a different investment approach. But from a recent fund report here’s what I was able to clip:
“The Multi-Strategy Total Return Fund returned 2.70% in the six-month period ended April 30, 2019, and outperformed the ICE Bank of America Merrill Lynch U.S. 3-Month Treasury Bill Index.”
So it sounds as if they’re using the same 3-month T Bill index the Vanguard fund uses. One difference is that Vanguard bills its alternative fund as only for “sophisticated” investors. On the other hand, T.Rowe allows anybody with the minimum investment ($1,000 for IRA’s) to open an account. The fact that I was able to get in is testament that you don’t need to be very sophisticated to be let in the door. :)
But, I do want to say this: Although they “benchmark” against the 3-year treasury, I don’t think Price is shooting that low in their own expectations as to how this fund will perform. I know from reading their various commentaries over the past year that they feel this fund can generate positive returns, even in the event both stocks and bonds slump badly. That seems to be the underlying reason Price committed to this fund. How they plan to execute all this I can’t say. But I have enough confidence after 25+ years with them that if anyone can pull it off they can. Following it daily does seem to suggest little correlation with any other asset class. I’m not impressed, however by its performance over the first year. It lags even stodgy diversified income fund RPSIX YTD - not a very high hurdle IMHO.
FWIW

Just plucked 57% of my stake in PRSNX and plopped it into RPSIX, a fund of funds, and holding 13% of its portfolio in stocks. The Trumpster is rattling his sabre. (Shit!)

Hi Guys,
This is not especially good news.
“We found a negative relationship between the sentiment of each of these three groups and future stock returns, and the relationship is statistically significant for Wall Street strat and individual investors.”
This is a quote extracted from the following reference:
https://www.jstor.org/stable/4480229?seq=1#page_scan_tab_contents
The good news here is that experts are usually wrong. I’m in that very large club too. Regardless, I wish good luck to all! We need it since skill is clearly not enough.
Best Wishes

Not to Trump @Ted’s great summary. But the big news today to me is ......
. 10 Year Gov't Yield Yield 1.89%
. Spot Gold $1443.15 (+ 2.07%)
. GDX-Gold Miners Index 27.85 (+ 5.09%)
. Crude Oil $54.51 (-6.95%)
(Source: Bloomberg)
- Huge one-day drop in crude, possibly indicative of slowing global economy. Bloomberg says it’s the biggest one-day drop since 2015.
- Complete reversal for the miners, erasing all of yesterday’s steep losses - plus some.
- And what can you say about a now “whopping” 1.89% APR for those wishing to lock-up their money for 10 years in a Treasury bond?
I hope none of the above infringes too much on Ted’s corner. I know a lot happened in equities as well. But it’s these less followed sectors that caught my attention. What does it all mean? Who the #%@* knows?

FYI: Stocks, bond yields and oil prices dropped after President Trump said that the U.S. will impose additional tariffs on China next month, highlighting how trade worries continue to rattle investors.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased a rebound of more than 300 points, oil dropped 7.9%—posting its worst day since February 2015—and the yield on the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note plumbed fresh 2019 lows. The blue-chip index dropped 280 points, or 1.05%, to 26583. The S&P 500 fell 0.90% and the technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite slid 0.79%.
President Trump said Thursday the U.S. would impose an additional 10% tariff on $300 billion in Chinese imports beginning Sept. 1, reviving investor concerns over trade tensions between the world’s two biggest economies.
The latest round of U.S.-China trade talks concluded Wednesday without any compromise, though both sides described the talks as constructive. The next round will be held in September.
Stocks were lower on the day after rebounding earlier in the session, as traders had grown more confident that the Federal Reserve would cut rates again in September. Federal-funds futures showed the market was pricing in a 70% chance of another quarter-point rate cut in September. That is up from around 49% on Wednesday, according to CME Group.
Energy shares in the S&P 500 led the broader market lower Thursday, with the sector shedding 2.6%. The losses came as U.S. crude prices dropped 7.9% to $53.95, their worst one-day percentage drop since February 2015.
Shares of U.S. oil producers slid, with Whiting Petroleum and Concho Resources tumbling 38% and 23%, respectively.
U.S. government-bond yields have erased almost all of their rise following the 2016 presidential election when investors bet that massive tax cuts and infrastructure spending would stimulate growth and inflation. The benchmark 10-year Treasury yield has fallen more than 1 percentage point since peaking at a multiyear high of about 3.2% in November.
The WSJ Dollar Index, which measures the currency against a basket of its peers, was down 0.2%.
Investors are looking ahead to Friday’s employment report for signs that the U.S. economy remains on solid footing amid concerns over trade tensions and slowing global growth. Economists surveyed by The Wall Street Journal estimate U.S. employers added 165,000 jobs in July while the unemployment rate is projected to tick down to 3.6%.
Data released Thursday showed U.S. factory activity lost momentum in July. The Institute for Supply Management said its manufacturing index fell to 51.2 in July from 51.7 in June, the fourth consecutive month of slowing expansion. Readings above 50 indicate activity is expanding across the manufacturing sector, while those below 50 are a sign of contraction.
Elsewhere, the Stoxx Europe 600 rose 0.5%. The British pound was down 0.1% against the dollar, hovering near historic lows after the Bank of England left interest rates unchanged.
In Asia, both China’s benchmark Shanghai Composite Index and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng fell 0.8%.
Regards,
Ted
Bloomberg Evening Briefing:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-30/your-evening-briefing
MarketWatch:
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/stock-futures-bounce-after-fed-disappointment-sparks-selloff-2019-08-01/print
WSJ:
https://www.wsj.com/articles/global-stocks-waver-on-fed-policy-outlook-11564647018
Bloomberg:
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-07-31/asia-stocks-set-to-track-u-s-sell-off-after-fed-markets-wrap?srnd=premium
IBD:
https://www.investors.com/market-trend/the-big-picture/stock-market-trump-tariffs-bears/
CNBC:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/stock-market-fed-cools-expectations-of-further-rate-cuts.html
Reuters:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-stocks/wall-st-bounces-back-on-tech-strength-focus-shifts-to-earnings-idUSKCN1UR4JA
U.K:
https://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-britain-stocks/shell-fed-stance-weigh-on-ftse-100-boe-action-hurts-mid-caps-idUKKCN1UR3T9
Europe:
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-europe-stocks/bat-and-financials-lift-european-stocks-after-fed-blow-idUSKCN1UR3T7
Asia:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/asia-stocks-china-data-south-korea-currencies-in-focus.html
Bonds:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/us-treasury-yields-higher-after-fed-dampens-hopes-of-more-rate-cuts.html
Currencies:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/forex-markets-federal-reserve-powell-comments-usd-eur-jpy-in-focus.html
Oil:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/oil-markets-us-federal-reserve-in-focus.html
Gold:
https://www.cnbc.com/2019/08/01/gold-markets-federal-reserve-dollar-in-focus.html
WSJ: Markets At A Glance:
https://markets.wsj.com/us
Major ETFs % Change:
https://www.barchart.com/etfs-funds/etf-monitor
SPDR's Sector Tracker:
http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
SPDR's Bloomberg Sector Performance Pie Chart:
https://www.bloomberg.com/markets/sectors
Current Futures:
https://finviz.com/futures.ashx

There are books by Bruce Miller and Lowell Miller (coincidence?) on dividend strategies that you might want to check out. I remember a lot of proponents of that strategy on M* yrs ago,
Also, Jane Bryant Quinn wrote a somewhat fluffy book on general aspects of planning for retirement back in 2017. That might spark some thoughts.

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/734383/000093247119007245/ps57a082019iii.htm
497 1 ps57a082019iii.htm DIVIDEND GROWTH FUND 497
Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund
Supplement Dated August 1, 2019, to the Prospectus and Summary Prospectus Dated May 30, 2019
Important Change to Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund
Vanguard Dividend Growth Fund (“Fund”) is now open to all new investors.
The Fund may modify these transaction policies at any time and without prior notice to shareholders.
You may call Vanguard for more detailed information about the Fund’s transaction policies. Participants in employer-sponsored plans may call Vanguard Participant Services at 800-523-1188. Investors in nonretirement accounts and IRAs may call Vanguard’s Investor Information Department at 800-662-7447.
© 2019 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor.
PS 57A 082019

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1409957/000093247119007247/supplementmarketneutral.htm
497 1 supplementmarketneutral.htm MARKET NEUTRAL FUND INVESTOR SHARES SUPPLEMENT
Vanguard Market Neutral Fund
Supplement Dated August 1, 2019, to the Prospectus Dated
April 26, 2019
The minimum investment amount required to open and maintain a Fund account for
Investor Shares will be reduced from $250,000 to $50,000. The account minimum
change is expected to become effective on or about November 4, 2019.
The Fund's investment objective, strategies, and policies will remain unchanged.
Prospectus Text Changes
The following replaces similar text under the heading “Purchase and Sale of Fund
Shares” in the Fund Summary section:
You may purchase or redeem shares online through our website (vanguard.com), by
mail (The Vanguard Group, P.O. Box 1110, Valley Forge, PA 19482-1110), or by
telephone (800-662-2739). The minimum investment amount required to open and
maintain a Fund account for Investor Shares is $50,000. The minimum investment
amount required to add to an existing Fund account is generally $1. Financial
intermediaries and institutional clients should contact Vanguard for information on
special eligibility rules that may apply to them regarding Investor Shares. If you are
investing through an intermediary, please contact that firm directly for more
information regarding your eligibility. If you are investing through an employer-
sponsored retirement or savings plan, your plan administrator or your benefits office
can provide you with detailed information on how you can invest through your plan.
The following replaces similar text under the heading “Account Minimums for
Investor Shares” in the Investing With Vanguard section:
To open and maintain an account. $50,000. Financial intermediaries and institutional
clients should contact Vanguard for information on special eligibility rules that may
apply to them regarding Investor Shares. If you are investing through an intermediary,
please contact that firm directly for more information regarding your eligibility.
To add to an existing account. Generally $1.
© 2019 The Vanguard Group, Inc. All rights reserved.
Vanguard Marketing Corporation, Distributor. PS 634 082019
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/313850/000093247119007246/alternativestrategies497.htm
497 1 alternativestrategies497.htm ALTERNATIVE STRATEGIES 497
Vanguard Alternative Strategies Fund
Supplement Dated August 1, 2019, to the Prospectus Dated
February 27, 2019
Important Changes to the Fund
The Fund's Board of Trustees has approved changes to the investment
objective and benchmark of the Fund. The Fund's investment objective will
change to: “The Fund seeks to generate returns that have low correlation with
the returns of the stock and bond markets and seeks capital appreciation.” The
Fund's performance benchmark will change from the FTSE 3-month US T-Bill
Index +4% to the FTSE 3-month US T-Bill Index.
The Fund will also adopt a risk methodology that targets a fixed volatility range
of 5-7% measured at the portfolio level. However, the Fund's volatility from time
to time may move outside this targeted range.
The account minimum required to open and maintain an account will be reduced
from $250,000 to $50,000.
The investment objective and benchmark changes for the Fund, together with
the risk methodology adoption, are expected to become effective on or about
November 1, 2019. The Fund's registration statement will be updated at that
time to reflect these changes. The account minimum change is expected to
become effective on or about November 4, 2019.
Prospectus Text Changes
The following replaces similar text under the heading “Investment Objective” in
the Fund Summary section:
The Fund seeks to generate returns that have low correlation with the returns of
the stock and bond markets and seeks capital appreciation.
The following paragraph is added after the third paragraph under the heading
“Principal Investment Strategies” in the Fund Summary section:
The Fund has adopted a risk methodology that targets a fixed volatility range of
5-7% measured at the portfolio level. However, the Fund's volatility from time to
time may move outside this targeted range.
The following replaces similar text under the heading “Annual Total Returns”:
The following bar chart and table are intended to help you understand the risks of
investing in the Fund. The bar chart shows how the performance of the Fund has
varied from one calendar year to another over the periods shown. The table
shows how the average annual total returns of the Fund compare with those of a
relevant market index, which has investment characteristics similar to those of the
Fund. Effective November 1, 2019, the FTSE 3-month US T-Bill Index +4% was
replaced with the FTSE 3-month US T-Bill Index in order to align with the Fund's
investment objective and risk methodology. The Spliced Alternative Strategies
Index reflects the performance of the FTSE 3-month US T-Bill Index +4% through
October 31, 2019, and the FTSE 3-month US T-Bill Index thereafter. Keep in mind
that the Fund's past performance (before and after taxes) does not indicate how
the Fund will perform in the future. Updated performance information is available
on our website at vanguard.com/performance or by calling Vanguard toll-free at
800-662-7447....

2johnN; Thought this might interest you.
Regards,
Ted
https://debtfreegeek.org/2017/09/22/become-usaa-member-even-arent-military/

Today I inquired with Schwab on matching Merrill Edge's offer $1,000 bonus for rolling over assets.@msf They are not presently extending that match.
Is anyone familiar with Merrill Edge's platform, fee structure, customer service, customer experience, etc?
I am not a huge fan of BOA (based on past experiences) on the banking side, but I am willing to listen if things are better in the Merrill Edge side of the business.