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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • 3D Printing, Robotics and Technology Fund to liquidate (surprised?)
    Hey! With 3D printing technology constantly changing and innovating ,this fund may want to reconsider with this product in development.
    This 3D-printed bikini can now clean polluted ocean while you swim
    Wayne Murphy October 18, 2015
    http://thenextdigit.com/26717/printed-bikini-clean-polluted-ocean-swim/
    Link to developer.
    image
    http://eraycarbajo.com/gallery/sponge-suit/
  • Lower gas prices means no Social Security increase next year
    "If it looks like there's a lot of grumbling about no SS increases"
    It would be really interesting to know what percentage of the SS grumblers also vote for politicians who promise "smaller government and absolutely no tax increases".
    Most people vote for their for their self interest. At my age I'm voting for SS increases,
    and kicking the can down the road ... about 25 years down the road.
  • quick snapshot of mutual fund news, 10/19
    FPA Crescent Fund – Q3 2015 Update
    Activity:
    o Sold out of Norsk Hydro and Sulzer
    o Added to several names, including Alcoa, CIT Group, Cisco, LPL Financial, General
    Electric
    o Purchased a handful of new equity positions and a few new fixed income positions,
    including Glencore and Bombardier, in the quarter.
    o Top contributors for the quarter were Google, Sound Holdings, Microsoft, Sears Holding
    Corp. 6.625% Due 10/15/2018, and Bombardier 7.750% Due 3/15/2020. Oracle, Joy
    Global, Aon, Citigroup and United Technologies were the top detractors for the period.
    Positioning:
    o Gross exposure to equities is circa 58% and net equity exposure is approximately 55%.
    Fixed Income increased a bit to 3.4%.
    o Added to private investments, specifically real estate partnerships.
    o Cash is approximately 40%.
    Outlook:
    o Still challenging to find bargains, but is improving. We are looking at various areas of
    opportunities, including Chinese internet, copper, oil/gas and Brazil

    http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/fpa-crescent-fund/q3-2015-crescent-update.pdf?sfvrsn=2
  • MFO Fund Ratings Through 3rd Quarter 2015 - Updated with Lipper Database
    Charles,
    If you take GO largeish equity funds and etfs and sort by UI, you see it is almost identical to sorting by month of bad drop (2015, then 2011, finally 2009) and also (of course) by longevity.
    In my little test list, USMV is at the top and FCNTX at the bottom. PRBLX UI is in the middle.
    Will it really prove to be the case that LOGIX or SDY or VONG (indexes as GOs seems a little weird no matter how you compute) turns out to have been wiser investments than those two funds and/or PRDGX ? (I am doing the sorting via copy into Word doc table, as I have been too thick to figure out how to do it in the Excel sheets in either posted or enlarged form.)
  • PRGTX seems to defy gravity
    Another tech heavy fund (without the international component) with similar 1, 3, 5 and 10 year returns is FBSOX. And, it managed to sidestep the tech meltdown from 2000 to 2002.
  • PRGTX seems to defy gravity
    This fund seems to defy gravity, up 23% during the last year, up 98% during 3 years, up 153% during 5 years.
    Any opinion?
  • Lower gas prices means no Social Security increase next year
    The Marketwatch column confuses "elderly inflation" with inflation experienced by SS recipients (and also with CPI-E).
    Here's SSA's page discussing the objective of cost of living adjustments, and how they relate to price indexes.
    Among other things, it points out that living expense changes and price changes are not identical. That elderly and SS recipients are two different cohorts (1/5 of SS recipients are under age 62, and 1/5 of seniors do not receive SS). That patterns of medical expenses are different for seniors (and not incorporated into price indexes, including CPI-E). And so on.
    If you want to get right to the section on limitations and problems with CPI-E, here's a link to the section within the page.
    So much of the discussion (not here, of course) amounts to smoke and mirrors, or what OJ wrote, "sleight of hand".
    Another example. The "hold harmless" rule saying that your SS check cannot go down because of Medicare increases doesn't prevent the value of that check from decreasing. In fact, the value of that check will decrease in 2017, assuming any COLA. That's because the net dollar amount will not increase (any increase will be offset by an increase in Medicare premiums). So nominal amount will not drop, but value will due to inflation.
    If it looks like there's a lot of grumbling about no SS increases this year (when inflation is low), wait until next year or whenever inflation picks up, and the SS checks still don't go up (after Medicare deductions). But, hey, the nominal amounts won't drop. Smoke and mirrors.
  • Replacement for RSIVX Multi sector bond fund. in a Roth ira fund purchased about a year ago.
    Hi Hank, I don't know what M* page you were copying from as far as the RSIVX credit quality breakdown goes, but here are the figures from the page that's on the site now, with data as of 9/30.
    In round #s, all of the A categories (AAA-AA-A) = 3%, BBB = 21%, BB = 3%, B = 51%, < B = 14%, NR = 9%. The average quality per M* is B, which is what D. Sherman said it would be at the launch of the fund.
    So overall, it's ~ 24% IG (with most of that at the lower end of IG), 68% non-IG, and 9% unrated.
  • Lower gas prices means no Social Security increase next year
    "Social Security benefits would have got cost-of-living boost if elderly inflation was used... Social Security recipients miss out on $44 a month due to inflation measure"
    @little5bee- The nice thing about standards is that there are so many to choose from! Take a number from here... take a number from there... look! we proved it!!
    The same statistical sleight-of-hand as discussed in the "The Poor in the US Are Richer than the Middle Class in Much of Europe" thread. There is an entire cohort of statisticians who will pimp for anyone willing to pay them to prove anything. "Smoking is good for you!" "The earth isn't warming!"
  • small value: HUSIX vs TDVFX
    @claimui, I certainly agree with you the deep value can be very volatile and gut-wrenching and I think that has something to do with why there's a value and a small cap premium. In my case, I think allocating a portion of my portfolio where I can live with that volatility and potentially extended poor returns is a reasonable attempt to collect those premiums. My guess would be, although I haven't studied it, that a passive fund like Vanguard's Small Value Index fund suffers from what David mentioned in his review of TDVFX, meaning that they fail to capture the value premium. I don't completely believe in M*'s version of value vs. growth in terms of where funds fall in their style box, but out of the 3 funds TDVFX is furthest into value territory while Vanguard's is in the upper right hand corner of the small value box. Pinnacle is obviously very small but not as far left on the value spectrum. I wonder if that's caused in part by their large cash stake?
    Like you, I think PVFIX is a reasonably compelling fund and like you I'm not fond of the big cash position. It feels to me like they become market timers and we know how that usually works out. David Iben had an interesting chart in his quarterly conference call for KGGAX that he used to make a point about valuation vs. timing. It showed, in more detail than I'll mention, if he buys a business that's worth twice as much as he buys it for and it takes 10 years for the market to recognize the true worth of the company, he still makes 7% annually on the investment. If he buys a company that's worth 5 times as much as he pays then he makes 17% annually even if it takes 10 years for the company's value to be recognized.
    His point was that if he gets the valuation right then whether he's early or not is far less important, part of which is because he thinks 10 years would be an unusually long time for the market to overlook the company's value and part of which is because he's been early for the last 2 years.
    It seems like value generally has had a pretty rough ride of it for a while now so hopefully the fun times when value does really well aren't too far off in the future.
  • Portfolio Review
    Hi @ bee,
    Sorry I missed your flag or I would have commented earlier in the thread. It is interesting to read how others follow and manage their portfolio(s). I think what is important is that each that has commented has a system that works well for them. With this I thought I'd post my sleeve management system again in hopes it will add to the venues already posted and might help someone find their way along the pathway of investing.
    Old_Skeet's Sleeve Management System
    Here is a brief description of my sleeve system which I organized to help better manage the investments that were held in five accounts. The accounts consist of a taxable account, a self directed ira account, a 401k account, a profit sharing account and a health savings account plus two bank accounts. With this I came up with four investment areas. They are a cash area which consist of two sleeves … an investment cash sleeve and a demand cash sleeve. The next area is the income area which consists of two sleeves. … a fixed income sleeve and a hybrid income sleeve. Then there is the growth & income area which has more risk associated with it than the income area and it consist of four sleeves … a global equity sleeve, a global hybrid sleeve, a domestic equity sleeve and a domestic hybrid sleeve. An finally there is the growth area, where the most risk in the portfolio is found and it consist of four sleeves … a global sleeve, a large/mid cap sleeve, a small/mid cap sleeve and a specialty sleeve. Each sleeve consists of three to six funds (in most cases) with the size and the weight of each sleeve can easily be adjusted, from time-to-time, by adjusting the number of funds and the amounts held. By using the sleeve system one can get a better picture of their overall investment picture and weightings by sleeve and area. In addition, I have found it beneficial to xray each fund, each sleeve, each investment area, and the portfolio as a whole monthly. Again, weightings can be adjusted form time-to-time as to how I might be reading the markets and wish to weight accordingly. All funds pay their distributions to the cash area of the portfolio with the exception being those in my 401k, profit sharing, and health savings accounts where reinvestment occurs. With the other accounts paying to the cash area builds the cash area of the portfolio to meet the portfolio’s monthly cash disbursement with the residual being left for new investment opportunity. In addition, most all buy/sell trades settle from or to the cash area with some nav exchanges taking place.
    Here is how I have my asset allocation broken out in percent ranges, by area. My neutral targets are cash 15%, income 30%, growth & income 35%, and growth 20%. I do an Instant Xray analysis of the portfolio monthly and make asset weighting adjustments as I feel warranted based upon my assessment of the market, my risk tolerance, cash needs, etc. Currently, I am heavy in the cash area at 25%, light in the income area at 20% and neutral in the equity area at 55% with 5% of the 55% being allocated to other assets as classified my Morningstar but included as part of the overall equity allocation.
    Cash Area (Weighting Range 5% to 25% with target weighting at 15%)
    Demand Cash Sleeve… (Cash Distribution Accrual & Future Investment Accrual)
    Investment Cash Sleeve … (Savings & Time Deposits)
    Income Area (Weighting Range 20% to 40% with target weighting at 30%)
    Fixed Income Sleeve: GIFAX, LALDX, THIFX, LBNDX, NEFZX & TSIAX
    Hybrid Income Sleeve: CAPAX, CTFAX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PGBAX
    Growth & Income Area (Weighting Range 25% to 45% with target weighting at 35%)
    Global Equity Sleeve: CWGIX, DEQAX & EADIX
    Global Hybrid Sleeve: BAICX, CAIBX & TIBAX
    Domestic Equity Sleeve: ANCFX, FDSAX, INUTX, NBHAX, SPQAX & SVAAX
    Domestic Hybrid Sleeve: ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX
    Growth Area (Weighting Range 10% to 30% with target weighting at 20%)
    Global Sleeve: AJVAX, ANWPX, NEWFX, PGROX, THOAX & THDAX
    Large/Mid Cap Sleeve: AGTHX, IACLX, SPECX & VADAX
    Small/Mid Cap Sleeve: PCVAX, PMDAX & VNVAX
    Specialty Sleeve: LPEFX, PGUAX & TOLLX
    Total Number of Mutual Fund Positions = 46
    Trailing Note: I have found Dr. Mandell's Newsletter "Mutual Fund Research Newsletter," which you make reference to above, to be both informative and good reading. Notice, I am not too far off from his second quarter target allocations for his moderate allocation portfolio model of 25% cash, 25% bonds, 50% stocks. At this point in time, I have elected to remain cash heavy and utilize special investment positions (spiffs) form time-to-time over reducing my cash allocation and raising my allocation to bonds as he did in his third quarter call. I feel it is better to have some extra dry powder on hand during these most uncertain market conditions and use it from time-to-time in spiffs. Thinking of giving Kathleen Gaffney another go in her EVBAX (of course not the whole wad) as this is an income fund and it does hold about 50% in bonds plus some other income generating securities. To me, it is more of an income generating tactical allocation fund rather than a traditional bond fund. It will probally perform well in an upward moving market and poorly in downward trending market. At this time, just pondering.
  • Portfolio Review
    @bee: Your question on tracking a portfolio is thought provoking. Here’s my 2 cents.
    I am retired, thus I am in the withdrawal stage, not the accumulation phase. I use a Lazy Portfolio Scheme to implement an asset allocation of 50/50 stocks to bonds.
    I use Excel worksheets as follows:
    A “Portfolio” worksheet tracks the portfolio (I also have a “Temp” and “Rebalance” worksheets described later). At the top are today’s date, current value, value at end of last year, and YTD percent gain/loss. My current YTD is a loss of 2.114% that includes all drawdowns to date including most of my Minimum Required Distribution (MRD).
    NEXT is the “Assets” table of current price, shares owned, value and category (Domestic Stock, International Stock, Fixed Income, and Cash) for each asset. It is arranged in alphabetic order to accommodate brokerage watch lists and Excel LOOKUP functions.
    I use the following categories:
    Domestic Stock
    International Stock
    Fixed Income
    Cash
    NEXT are details for each account in my portfolio (Rollover IRA, TIAA Traditional, A-Trust, B-Trust, Individual, Experimental, and Credit Union). For each account the Price, Shares, Value and category of each asset are listed. A summary by category shows the value, and percent of each category in the account.
    LAST is a Consolidated Details for all accounts. I use a separate table for each of the categories. For each asset I list Price, Sum of shares from all accounts, Value, Current Allocation, and Target Allocation.
    Thus I can visualize my portfolio in terms of assets, assets in each account, and assets sorted by category.
    A “Temp” worksheet provides an intermediary for specifying current asset prices. I copy values from a Watchlist in my Fidelity account. I paste the values from the watchlist into the Temp worksheet and then copy the price column to the portfolio worksheet. (Note that I have arranged my assets in alphabetical order for this to work.) The Temp worksheet can be used for general calculations with the restriction that no other worksheet should link to any cell in the Temp worksheet.
    A “Rebalance” worksheet calculates buys and sells when I rebalance my asset allocation portfolio. In general I compare the current allocation of an asset to a target allocation and do buys and sells to rebalance to target values.
    First I create a “Target Allocation Table” that shows target allocations for each of the four categories and the assets in each category. I initially set the target values in collaboration with a fee-only Financial Advisor. The values by major category:
    29% Domestic Stock ETFs
    21% International Stock ETFs
    45% Fixed IncomeS
    5% Cash
    I won’t go into details of this worksheet, but have the following remarks:
    1. There will be a variety of account types: As one gets older different financial situations occur, e.g. trust accounts, retirement, death/divorce of spouse, marriage, etc. There needs to be flexibility to handle financial resources that are not mutual funds or ETFs. My situation has accounts:
    Trust-A
    Trust-B (with its separate tax-ID)
    Rollover IRA
    Individual (used as a conduit between other accounts and my bank)
    Experimental
    Credit Union
    Life can become more complicated in retirement!
    2. I fine-tune allocations between accounts: Although my Rebalance worksheet does an initial calculation of buys and sells, I manually fine-tune the allocations for the following reasons:
    a. I want to have sufficient cash in the IRA to fund my MRD from that account.
    b. I want to take capital gains in tax deferred accounts, not taxable accounts.
    c. In the Trust-B account I want to minimize taxes so I over allocate a muni-bond fund.
    d. The Experimental account is exempt from buys and sells of a rebalance operation.
    3. I combine two or more assets into a “Combined Asset”. For example I am taking a Minimum Required Distribution (MRD) from a TIAA Traditional account that does not allow me to trade this asset. (There are other options I could have selected, but immediately liquidating the entire asset was not available.) I have solved this by combining the TIAA with my BND ETF and allocate a percentage to the combined quantity that I call “Total Bond Market/Long-Term Fixed Income” Within this combined asset, I assign TIAA’s target allocation to its current allocation, and the BND target allocation to the difference of the target allocation assigned to the Combined Asset and the TIAA current allocation. Another example might be a $10,000 T-Bill that can only be sold in its entirety. Yes, I know this is a forum about mutual funds and ETFs, but stuff happens and we need to adapt.
    4. I rebalance based on a calendar event, not a market event or a difference between current and target asset percentages. I have chosen the middle of August and February. I want to avoid any semblance of market timing.
    I hope you find this useful.
  • "Revised" Prospectus... really??
    Summary prospectuses typically state that the statutory prospectus and SAI are incorporated by reference. So these more complete documents are an integral part of what you are reading.
    The change here concerned the closing and opening of funds. Rather than avoiding funds that make such changes (that affect their prospectuses), funds that diligently manage their level of assets would seem to be desirable.
    Statutory prospectuses AFAIK always include the supplements (revisions) explicitly, so you can see clearly exactly what changed. For example, the Artisan Global Value statutory prospectus starts with a two page supplement (dated September 21st). Here's a copy of that supplement.
    (In case you think you're seeing double in this SEC filing, the reason why the two pages appear twice is that the filing includes the supplement for the Investor/Institutional share class prospectus, and the supplement for the Advisor share class prospectus. Aside from the share class names and prospectus page numbers, the two versions appear identical.)
  • "Revised" Prospectus... really??
    @Alban
    It seems to vary from company to company. The specific revision which triggered my post says this at the top:
    Summary Prospectus
    February 1, 2015,
    as supplemented September 21, 2015

    It is a presumably revised or "supplemented" version, but contains all of the information in the previous version, with no highlighting to indicate which portions have been revised or supplemented.
  • Barron's Oct 17 2015: Lewis Braham - Five Great Overlooked Funds (quotes David Snowball)
    https://www.google.com/search?q=barron's snowball funds Oct 2015 Overlooked
    There are 173 funds with less than $100 million in them that have outperformed more than 80% of their peers in the past five years, according to Morningstar... (here are five)
  • interesting scenario: hybrid funds as a contagion bridge from a bond crisis to an equity sell-off
    Hybrid (asset allocation) funds make up between thirty five and forty percent of my overall portfolio which currently consist of ten investment plus two cash management sleeves; has an overall asset allocation of about 25% cash, 20% bonds, 50% equities & 5% other assets and is comprised of a total of forty seven funds.
    There are a few reasons that I find value in hybrid type funds. One reason being that they can roam a wider field of investment choices over most other fund types and weight their holdings accordingly to where they are finding the most opportunity (stocks, bonds, cash and other assets). Two, should they have to sell down assets to meet redemptions in a major market decline then they have more than one asset class to choose from to do this. And, another reason is that they provide somewhat of a walking asset allocation for me within my own portfolio as their fund managers can, and do, make adjustments within their asset allocations from time-to-time due to changing market conditions and this automatically somewhat adjusts my portfolio’s asset allocation without me having to make adjustments myself unless I choose to do so.
    In my income sleeve I currently have three funds that at times usually hold a small allocation to equities and other assets besides their main focus in bonds. These funds are LBNDX, NEFZX and TSIAX.
    In my hybrid income sleeve I currently hold the following (mostly conservative allocation) funds. They are CTFAX, CAPAX, FKINX, ISFAX, JNBAX & PGBAX.
    In my growth and income global hybrid sleeve I currently hold the following (mostly world allocation) funds. They are BAICX, CAIBX & TIBAX.
    In my growth and income domestic hybrid sleeve I currently hold the following (mostly moderate allocation) funds. They are ABALX, AMECX, DDIAX, FRINX, HWIAX & LABFX.
    In my specialty sleeve I currently hold the following hybrid type fund. It is LPEFX.
    You might wish to do an Instant Xray on each of the funds as it will provide a view of how the fund managers have allocated.
    Old_Skeet
  • interesting scenario: hybrid funds as a contagion bridge from a bond crisis to an equity sell-off
    Hi Guys,
    Good grief, Charlie Brown! As I thought about what I plan to say in this posting, the frightening image of Harry Dent invaded my mind. I’m about to stress the significance of dynamic demographic changes that will strongly influence the marketplace in a negative way in the coming years.
    Dent has been singing that same song for decades. I suppose this singular theory of Harry Dent is alive and well.
    I few years ago I examined a bunch of broad market data to discover chief contributors to real (after inflation) GDP growth rate. I postulated that corporate profits would be loosely coupled with some time displacement to GDP growth.
    My correlation efforts identified demographic growth and productivity increases as primary GDP growth rate factors, with the demographics component contributing one-third to the total picture. The correlation was very tight.
    That outcome was not unexpected since consumer spending accounts for roughly 70% of our economy. And consumer spending changes as a function of age. Although his numbers have shifted a little as Dent accumulated more data and as our population ages, he finds that the average consumer reaches peak spending in the 45 to 55 age bracket.
    Couple that relatively stable spending distribution with an increasing average lifespan and a decreasing child birth rate, and the makings of a shift in our overall spending profile definitely is possible. Potentially, that shift does not bode well for the stock markets. The same arguments are also valid in the developed nations. Potentially, trouble is everywhere.
    I distrust forecasting since I really believe that forecasters can’t forecast. As John Kenneth Galbraith said: “The only function of economic forecasting is to make astrology look respectable”. With that warning, here is my analyses (yes, it’s a forecast by another name).
    For the past few decades, a prosperous USA chose spending over savings. We bought what we wanted. With an aging population, our overarching policy will shift from buying what we want to only buying what we really need. Old folks do that. Consumer spending per person will contract. Working against that observation, our population will continue to increase, thus somewhat canceling and ameliorating the reduced spending trend.
    Profits will still be positive, but somewhat attenuated. Market returns will be reduced to reflect lower positive levels of GDP growth rates. The markets will mirror lower GDP growth rates. So sad.
    Good luck on this forecast being anywhere near what actually happens. The problem has far too many moving and interacting parts. But, nevertheless, it’s a fun task.
    The Beatles song “When I’m 64” captures some of the issues of an aging population. Here is a Link to the original version of that song by The Fab Four:

    Enjoy. It’s always a losing challenge to accurately project the future. Therefore, I’ll close on the success of the Beatles song.
    I realize I failed to answer any of Professor Snowball’s tough questions, but my note does address some issues outlined by MFOer Bee. The questions are well beyond my pay-grade. But I do see a correlation between an aging USA population and muted market rewards for whatever that is worth.
    Best Wishes.