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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Big Winners And Losers In The Markets Yesterday
    Hi John
    Haven't followed board too closely past week. But I'd differentiate between being "interested" in all the aspects of markets and being "nervous." I for one find the daily moves in equities, bonds, foreign currencies and commodities fascinating - probably in much the way others enjoy a mystery novel or viewing TV "reality" shows. And I enjoy gabbing about such with others who find the stuff of interest. Suspect those who don't find this stuff of great interest are likely off visiting other types of sites gabbing about racing or cooking or coin collecting or something else.
    Been in this for over 40 years. Heck - was investing at Templeton when Sir John was still managing some of the funds. So no - not "nervous" or I'd be gone from the markets by now. We all know that the stock market can fall 25% in a single day ((Oct. 1987) or 50% in a matter of months (2008 & 2009). Narrower segments like gold, oil, junk bonds and tech can do even worse than that over very short periods. And these things invariably happen without warning - although 1 in 50 pundits will probably call it correctly ahead of time and gain temporary retrospective fame after the event. So a very long-term perspective and, as much as possible, a hands-off approach are always recommended by me,
    Yes - some posters here do seem to be trying to time the markets. It's not for me to tell others how to invest. But, I view that as akin to standing on a mountain and commanding the wind to stop blowing or change direction. It might actually work once every dozen or so times. But generally the wind just blows you away.
    Still traveling in southern Fla. Nothing but 80s here. Take care.
  • Fears About 'Target' Funds
    FYI: Some experts worry investors don’t fully understand this popular 401(k) option.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/fears-about-target-funds-1425870191
  • Prepare For New Money-Fund Rules
    FYI: Three issues for investors to consider as regulations lead to a shake-up in the funds.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/prepare-for-new-money-fund-rules-1425870180
  • How To Survive A Bear Market
    FYI: If this six-year bull run ends, the worst thing is to overreact. Be ready and embrace it.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.wsj.com/articles/how-to-prepare-for-a-bear-market-in-stocks-1425870192
  • The Perfect Market Storm
    Addendum to prior comment: Into the Valley of the Shadow of Death Rides the Novice Investor
    http://www.etftrends.com/2015/03/getting-it-wrong-with-mlp-etfs/
    “Why so wild in MLP-land?” according to Miller Howard, a money manager that specializes in income-producing stocks, the Wall Street Journal reports. “There are many novice investors in MLPs that don’t really know what they are, what they do, or what the long-term story is. They’re just in it for the yield, or following the ‘hot dot’ of excellent performance for the past decade.”
    Howard argues that many new investors falsely believe that since MLPs are exposed to the energy space, the sector should be sold off when oil prices fall. With MLP-related mutual funds growing to $32 billion in assets from $3 billion over the past four years, Howard points out “that’s a lot of inexperienced investors.”
  • Five-star Seafarer and its neighbors
    As we'd anticipated, Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income (SFGIX/SIGIX) just received their inaugural five-star rating from Morningstar. And they're also Great Owl funds, based on our more risk-sensitive rankings.
    Of 219 diversified EM funds currently tracked by Morningstar, 18 have a five-star rating. 13 are Great Owls. Seafarer and 10 others (representing 5% of the peer group) are both five-star and Great Owls.
    Baron Emerging Markets(BEXFX) - $1.5 billion in AUM, 1.5% e.r., not quite five years old, large-growth with an Asian bias, mgr also runs Int'l Growth.
    City National Rochdale Emerging Markets (RIMIX) - 90% invested in Asia, City National Bank, headquartered in Hollywood, bought the Rochdale Funds and was itself bought in January 2015 by the Royal Bank of Canada. Interesting funds. No minimum investment but a 1.61% e.r. The EM fund acquires exposure to Indian stocks by investing in a wholly owned subsidiary domiciled in Mauritius. Hmmm.
    Driehaus EM Small Cap Growth (DRESX) - a $600 million hedged fund (and former hedge fund) for which we have a profile. Expenses are 1.71%.
    Federated EM Equity (FGLEX) - a $13 million institutional fund with a $1 million minimum, not quite five years old, mostly mega cap portfolio that had two really good years followed by two really soft ones.
    HSBC Frontier Markets (HSFAX) - 5% front load, 2.2% e.r., $200 million in AUM, midcap bias and a huge overweight in Africa & the Middle East at the expense of Asia. Curious.
    Harding Loevner Frontier EM (HLMOX) - modest overweight in Asia, huge overweight in Africa & the Middle East, far lower-than-average market cap, half a billion in assets, 2.2% e.r.
    Mirae Asset EM Great Consumer (MECGX) - marginal inclusion since the retail shares are four stars (1.85% e.r. is a drag) while institutional is five stars, not quite five years old, mega cap growth, lots of companies (hotels, consumer goods, drug companies) that directly interface with consumers.
    Seafarer Overseas Growth & Income (SFGIX) - $136 million in AUM, 1.4% e.r., small- to mid-cap bias, top 4% returns over its first three years of operation
    Thornburg Developing World (THDAX) - oopsie: lead manager Lewis Kaufman just jumped from the $3 billion ship to start an EM team at Artisan.
    Wasatch Frontier Emerging Small Countries - $1.3 billion in AUM and closed to new investors
    William Blair EM Small Cap Growth - $300 million in AUM and closed to new investors.
    On face, the pattern seems to be that small works. Lots of exposure to smaller firms located in smaller markets, even by EM standards. SFGIX is the second-smallest fund in the group, which makes it all the more striking that it's the least expensive of all. Among the least risky of this elite group.
    Congratulations to Andrew and his team. We'll share a conference call with him on April 16 and you'd be more than welcome to join us.
    David
  • ETFs As A Solution For Cash
    ~5% dip and recovery in the last 6mos? Could not tolerate that.
    Maybe some combo of BOND and PFF I will try; I am pretty chary no matter what.
  • Big Winners And Losers In The Markets Yesterday
    DLFNX was down 6¢ or 0.54% per the Doubleline site. As for Morningstar, their website shows it was up a penny. Last update was March 5. So much for their service.
    Not trying to aggravate @Crash, just correcting the figures. Still a bad day for DLFNX and I hold this find also.
    Hopes for a better week but I am not seeing it yet.
  • The Gambler’s Fallacy and Regression to the Mean
    Hi Guys,
    The “History does not repeat itself, but it Rhymes” quote is questionably attributed to Mark Twain. The marketplace has a storied history and loosely adheres to a history rhyming pattern. Loads of researchers have explored its historical rhymes with modest success to extract useable investment rules.
    Yale Hirsch is one of the most time-honored and prolific of that research group. His and his son’s “Stock Traders Almanac” is a classic for active traders. So is his book titled “Don’t Sell Stocks on Monday”. That’s good advice, since statistically the stock market yields ground on Monday, gathers a little momentum throughout the week, and is highest on Friday’s close.
    The Hirsch team operates a website. The site is subscription-based, but anyone can freely access its dated pdfs that contain a boatload of market advice and statistical summaries. For example, here is a direct Link to their December, 2014 issue:
    https://stocktradersalmanac.com/NL_Archive/2014/2014_12.pdf
    Typically, the Hirsch work ethic is guided by detailed statistical pattern finding. To quote one of Hirsch’s succinct recommendations: “ Buy on Monday, Sell on Friday”. That’s not bad advice for mutual fund holders who plan to adjust their portfolio positions. Although I’m definitely not a trader, I do follow Hirsch’s sell on Friday rule when I infrequently trade.
    Another useful observation is that the stock market only rhymes in the long run, not for day-to-day short run fluctuations which are truly random. The time scale is a determining factor for market rhythms.
    Sometimes investors, especially rookie investors, confuse the Gamblers Fallacy with the Regression-to-the-Mean maxims. At a quick glance they appear to be in conflict with each other. They are not if time scale is introduced into their interpretation.
    To illustrate, recall that the Gamblers Fallacy is to make a wager on Black if Red has been a predominant recent roulette outcome. That’s false since the roulette wheel doesn’t know what the previous spins registered. Each new spin is completely independent of earlier outcomes.
    On a daily basis the stock market is positive about 51% to 52% of the time. It’s almost a fair coin toss. Researchers have examined records countless times to discover if any short term temporal correlations can be identified. No such correlations exist. What wealth the market produced or destroyed today gives nearly zero signal what it will do tomorrow. Some speculators do see an illusionary correlation; that’s the Gamblers Fallacy doing harm.
    In the longer run, like over many months and years, regression-to-the-mean seems to operate with an uncertain grip on marketplace returns. Long term outcomes are reasonably predictable. Outliers revert to an average. Last years market wizards fall from grace. Momentum is an illusive happening that loses power suddenly.
    The Periodic Tables for investment categories and for Sectors constantly demonstrate rapidly changing favorites. Over the longer periods, a regression-to-the-mean is a fairly reliable characteristic of the investment markets.
    I appreciate that this is not new stuff for seasoned MFOers. We recognize that the markets only rhyme in the long run; that the short term markets are mostly dominated by purely random happenings that are subject to crowd behavior irrationality. Knowledge of market history is a necessary ingredient for investing success.
    Your comments are encouraged and welcomed.
    Best Regards.
  • Big Winners And Losers In The Markets Yesterday
    Yes, good hiring news translates to a rout on Wall Street. Main Street and Wall Street are indeed in separate worlds, in case anyone was still wondering about that. On Friday, my only fund not in the red was PRASX, managing barely a single PENNY upward. Bonds: DLFNX down -0.58% and PRSNX down -0.36% and PREMX down -0.41%. I observe, and move on. Next week's Market action is here already, tomorrow.
  • Vanguard: Estimated 2014 Supplemental Fund Distributions
    Thanks for the "heads-up." Wifey is due to received an additional $0.35 cents in her 403b. Soon after that, the employer is supposed to drop the annual chunk into her account. :)
  • Don’t Follow The Crowd Into The Wrong Index Funds
    As to Europe.......
    We investors know there are "days in the sun" for every investment; above other investment choices. We also understand that the "days in the sun" run their own paths and lengths based upon any number of factors.
    These price trends in either direction have their own shelf-life.
    For too many years beyond what I expected, the Euro/US currency ratio remained at $1.25 range average. I wondered why many times; but it was the fact and the reason was beyond my ability to define.
    This circumstance began to change in the past several months. The Euro now only costs about $1.08 U.S. I expect further value loss in the Euro v. the U.S. dollar; in order to "help" with Euroland exports.
    Relative to this, the below Euro-area indexes/etfs reflect price action YTD.
    One may conclude their own opinion as to whether a "hedged currency" position is/was valid, so far.....
    Several country funds have been included in this list as other reference points.
    HEDJ Wisdomtree International Hedged Equity Fund +17.01%
    VGK Vanguard FTSE Europe ETF +3.84%
    EZU iShares MSCI EMU Index Fund +4.60%
    EWG iShares MSCI Germany Index Fund +5.95%
    FEZ SPDR DJ EURO STOXX 50 ETF +3.58%
    EWU iShares MSCI UK Index Fund +2.83%
    IEV iShares S&P Europe 350 Index Fund +3.79%
    DBEU Deutsche X-trackers MSCI Europe Hedged Equity ETF +10.83%
    EWP iShares MSCI Spain Index Fund -3.21%
    EWL iShares MSCI Switzerland Index Fund +3.16%
    HEWG iShares Currency Hedged MSCI Germany ETF +17.17%
    FEEU FI Enhanced Europe 50 ETN +5.09%
    EWI iShares MSCI Italy Index Fund +5.59%
    DFE WisdomTree Europe SmallCap Dividend Fund +7.34%
    IEUR iShares Core MSCI Europe ETF +3.84%
    HEZU Currency Hedged MSCI EMU ETF +15.40%
    EWD iShares MSCI Sweden Index Fund +5.75%
    EWQ iShares MSCI France Index Fund +4.71%
    FEP First Trust Europe AlphaDEX Fund +5.21%
    FEU SPDR DJ STOXX 50 ETF +3.36%
    Lastly, is this finally Europe's "day in the sun" for investment returns? Note: we're invested in HEDJ and plan to add as circumstances dictate.
    Regards,
    Catch
  • Big Winners And Losers In The Markets Yesterday
    Several managed futures funds went up. PQTIX up .36% AHLPX up .35%. EBHIX up 1.02%. EBSPX up .90%.
  • Vanguard: Estimated 2014 Supplemental Fund Distributions
    FYI: The Vanguard funds listed below earned taxable income and/or realized capital gains for their fiscal years ended December 31, 2014 or January 31, 2015, that were greater than the amounts distributed in December 2014. The remaining taxable income or gains will be distributed in March 2015 as "supplemental" income dividends or capital gains distributions.
    Note: These supplemental fund distributions will be reported on 2015 tax forms. Vanguard will not generate updated tax forms for 2014. The gains reported here are taxable for the year during which they are declared
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://personal.vanguard.com/us/insights/article/supplemental-fund-distributions-032015
  • No surprise---again. M* fails to update
    @rjb112
    I had a fund too that has failed to update. And, that is LBNDX.
    Old_Skeet
    Let's get this documented:
    image
  • Why Did Real Estate Get Hit So Hard Friday Mar 6?
    The real estate fund that I own FRINX usually performs better than it’s category average during market declines. On a TTM basis it has a yield of about 4.5% and has placed in the top 20% within its category for the past thirty days.
    I have provided a link for those that would like to have a look.
    http://quotes.morningstar.com/fund/frinx/f?t=frinx
    Old_Skeet