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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Barry Ritholtz: Billionaire Bezos And The Warehouse Workers
    FYI: We have just learned that the median salary of employees at Amazon.com Inc. is $28,446, excluding its chief executive officer and founder, Jeff Bezos. That pitiful number raises an intriguing question: Is Amazon a high-paying tech company or a low-wage retailer?
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.bloomberg.com/view/articles/2018-04-20/amazon-bezos-net-worth-may-be-100-billion-times-that-of-workers
    Amazon Subscribers Worldwide:
    http://ritholtz.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/04/Screen-Shot-2018-04-20-at-12.53.17-PM.png
  • IOFIX on Friday. Very lousey day, but...
    crash, look at the history; it is wild, but many are willing to 'overpay' for skill (duh)
    some say as long as under 10% not to overworry (how's that for equivocation?)
  • IOFIX on Friday. Very lousey day, but...
    But how is it able to do that? Very little info on what its invested in on M*.
    Incidently their "hedged market opportunity" fund is down 12% ytd. So there.
    And their tactical allocation "asset rotation" fund is also sucking wind against category.
    I also worry because they have fund exclusively devoted to "Robotics & Automation". I immediately think of "Pictet Global Water" fund when I see that, a fund before its time.
    I guess IOFAX is unique...maybe time to dabble at little
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    I also cited drop 2016-3. That's 2 years back. Really appreciate if someone can look at the chart. It is important for me to know I'm not seeing things others aren't.
  • "Beam" Legitimate or too good to be true" scam?
    It's been covered by Forbes and by ValuePenguin, so in that sense at least it seems real.
    It's probably fine as far as it goes, but I'm not enticed by "engagement" bonuses (the more you do on the app, the higher the yield). It's hard to see how a company serving as a middleman is going to compete with online only banks in the long run. Run ads, like websites? Or like that company (forgot its name) that created free ATMs - you just had to watch an ad before getting your no fee cash.
    There might be a small window where your money is not insured - if Beam handles the money in transit, rather than simply "introducing" your bank to its partner bank. It's not clear how they're processing transfers; they don't seem to say explicitly that it's by ACH, though the 1-2 day wait is a good clue.
    I'm not fond of hype, and Beam seems to have more than its fair share. It says that "Beam is a mobile bank account that pays 200x more than your average savings account" (I think it means 200x as much). But as noted by Forbes, according to the FDIC the average savings account paid 0.06% back in September (surely more now). 200x, 67x, either way they're meaningless numbers.
    It tries to impress with jargon: "It is a Demand Deposit Account (DDA) in technical terms." Yes, but it could have said checking account. See, e.g. CFPB's page: "A demand deposit account is just a different term for a checking account." But then again, perhaps not, since it doesn't offer checking.
    I had to dig to find the name of the bank partner. It's there in the blog, but not to be found in the Q&A on the home page. There you find simply that it's partnering with an unnamed FDIC-insured bank.
    ValuePenguin says that in beta, you'll be limited to $15K. If you're okay with the games and the modest limit, you might also consider rewards checking accounts. They typically require you to make a certain number of debit purchases a month, and maybe some other stuff, but will give similar yields.
    Since I can get 1.6% - 1.8% at online banks without any games, without caps, without a smartphone, without "engaging", I'll stick with that. YMMV.
  • Artificial Intelligence (AI) Funds
    Way too narrow a focus for my tastes. I’m in the “preservation” stage owing to both age and market perception.
    But thanks for the question. If I really wanted to bet on AI, I might buy Amazon or a fund that owns it. Do you have an Echo device in your home? Even with our “horse & buggy” internet the things Echo can do seamlessly are just astounding (We got 2 named Echo and Alexa). Bezos seems to fling a lot of darts at various targets. Many of his new ideas fall flat. But occasionally he hits a grand slam (forgive the mixed metaphor). He did it with Kindle which dominates the market for e-readers and he’s doing it now with Echo.
    If you don’t have an Echo ...
    The App ...
    - Responds by your calling its name
    - Speaks in a very conversational tone with accurate pronunciation and quite a lot of human-like inflection.
    - Quickly looks up information ranging from weather forecasts (1-7 days out), to Wikipedia based inquiries, to common statistics like the size and age of the universe or the flying time between NY and London.
    - Can switch on lights, set the thermostat or play back music from Amazon at your command
    This is incredible AI technology.
    I think Amazon (1) will continue to improve the Echo device by adding new capabilities and (2) hit another home run in a few years with some new AI we’re not even thinking about today.
    Valuation? Don’t know. I don’t trust the equity markets period at these levels. But that’s just me.
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    Thank guys. As usual, bee is pointing the way. The MAXDD since inception for GTSOX is -11.2, which occurred 9/2011. Our premium site computes risk and performance metrics for 21 display periods, including "Life" or since inception (back to 1/1960, as applicable). Most of the main site search tools only have metrics for 1, 3, 5, 10 and 20 year periods. So, in the case of GTSOX, the 5-year period is longest shown, and the MAXDD over that period is more like -6%.
    Here's link to screenshot of full risk/return profile for GTSOX.
    The risk and performance metrics are computed from total monthly returns.
    We are about to go live with a much expanded database, thanks to a new global feed from Lipper. Ratings will include CEFs, holdings data, and much more.
    Hope that helps.
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    From the Portfolio Visualizer website (PV website), I created this graphic of GTSOX with its MAXDD highlighted:
    image
    Over a shorter timeframe (2014-2018): it appears that (-6.1%) MaxDD is correct:
    image
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    I looked up GTSOX at Schwab, without logging in. They show the best and worse 3 month period for each fund. From 6/2/11-8/31/11 the fund lost 10.42% and the best gain was 13.38 starting in 10/11. So I'm not sure what MAXDD is measuring either.
  • How Marty Whitman Beat The Market
    FYI: hird Avenue's Martin Whitman performed the astonishing feat of beating the stock market by a wide margin over at least twenty years.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.barrons.com/articles/how-whitman-won-1524154702
    http://www.cetusnews.com/business/cetusnews?part=SJs_ErU2G
  • BlackRock Wants Regulators To Address Unequal Voting Rights
    @Maurice- I think that's the general idea, but it seems to me that I've seen some situations where the difference was not as stark as 100% and 0%.
  • OMG, the Catch household go'in to be without bonds by week end.....perhaps
    You mean you’re gonna sell the ol’ bond boat? !!!
    Have to say this “bond burp” has to be the most overly predicted event in the history of investing. I swear folks back in FA days were already predicting it.
    Dunno where it will go, but was amused to see the 10 year at 2.94% at one point today. Fortunately, I did my magician’s (disappearing) act and the GNMA’s I went into 2-3 months ago as a “safety net” have long since been unloaded.
    No plans to sell anything else however. RPSIX before today was off only a quarter percent. DODIX about 1%. Both easy to digest. Got a little cash in a short corporate (OUSGX) and it’s been hit pretty good for a shortie. Guess it was off more than a half percent as of yesterday.
    Thanks for the post @catch 22 and for the insights @junkster.
  • Consumer-Staples Stocks Tumble, On Track For Worst Session In Two Months
    I hold RHS in both iras, but have been shaving a bit on strong days, but still have a fair amount. Every time I think to just dump it, it rallies a bit but I know its a defensive part of my overall portfolio and has its day when least suspecting it. Ive had it for about 4 years, and 2017 and now is the first time it has not done as expected.
  • BlackRock Wants Regulators To Address Unequal Voting Rights
    FYI: (This is a follow-up article.)
    BlackRock Inc (BLK.N) on Thursday called on securities regulators to set international standards for shareholder voting rights, suggesting they resolve one of the thorniest debates in corporate governance.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-blackrock-indexes/blackrock-wants-regulators-to-address-unequal-voting-rights-idUSKBN1HQ2FB
  • Value Funds vs. Growth Funds vs Bonds - No Longer True?
    Haven't had a chance to read through all the responses, but if you are looking into global allocation funds, my suggestion is to have a look at First Eagle SGENX . It fits well with my risk profile with consistent performance and low downside. It is available no load with many brokers including Schwab and Fidelity. You do have to assess yourself the quality of their team as managers can leave. That's why I usually look at funds with >15 years (preferably >20) of experience, low portfolio turnover, for a core position.
  • Consumer-Staples Stocks Tumble, On Track For Worst Session In Two Months
    FYI: Consumer-staples stocks sank on Thursday, putting it on track for its biggest decline in more than two months. The sector XLP, -2.55% lost 2.6%, its biggest one-day percentage drop since Feb. 5.
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.marketwatch.com/story/consumer-staples-stocks-tumble-on-track-for-worst-session-in-two-months-2018-04-19/print
    Sector Tracker XLP
    http://www.sectorspdr.com/sectorspdr/tools/sector-tracker
  • OMG, the Catch household go'in to be without bonds by week end.....perhaps
    Hi @Junkster
    Even the default gov't. money market used for a brokerage account at Fidelity have a current yield of 1.3%. Won't beat inflation, but better than going backwards plus inflation. For those unaware, technically; when one has a Fidelity account, the account is a brokerage account from which one travels their monies to wherever. Many years ago the brokerage feature for an individual account had to be requested as an "add-on".
    A benefit for us is that all invested monies are tax sheltered accounts and that we have so many choices of etf's and funds with Fidelity. So, to the buy/sell side of moving here or there does not have any current tax implications for us.
    To me/us the D.C. turmoil added another layer for investments past the fundamental/technical aspects of investing and the intuition.
    Add: LQD is down -.28% as of this write at 10 am, EST.
    ----- down -.47% at noon
    ----- down -.38%, close April 19
    Take care,
    Catch
  • The Elusive Bond Bear Market May Have Already Peaked
    FYI: Bond bulls have a spring in their step thanks to softer economic data and signals the business cycle is close to peaking.
    Markets are pricing in the end of the U.S. hiking path in 2020, or early 2021, and the start of some degree of monetary easing, potentially capping the selloff pressure in Treasuries
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.fa-mag.com/news/the-elusive-bond-bear-market-may-have-already-peaked-38203.html?print
  • Understanding MFO Risk Numbers
    I've been using MaxDD and Ulcer Index frequently in making decisions to buy funds. The reason is I really want to hold them for long time and don't want to be "stopped out" when fund hits a bad patch.
    However, I've been taking things at face value and something not adding up. Maybe I'm doing something wrong. Take GTSOX for instance. I have waited to buy this for a long time. When it corrected a bit with the market I observed it. It tanked much more than the MaxDD number. Now I don't know how frequently MFO data gets updated, but let's leave that aside for a minute.
    The fund has now recovered nicely. BUT, I have a question. Currently the MaxDD number in the Risk profile says -6.1% and this occurred 2015-9. A cursory examination of the GTSOX chart on stockcharts suggests this number should be higher - from over 10.6 to under 9.7. Moreover, I see another drop down 2016-3 not reflected in MFO tables which looks like from over 10.8 to under 9.7, almost 9.6, i.e. an even larger drop.
    Can someone explain what I'm doing/seeing wrong?
    http://schrts.co/wbPujQ