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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    Observations:
    1) fred495 is a good trader. Every investment board have different traders. The ones who buy and hold years, the ones who switch every 2-3 years, and others who change when they see better funds than what they have.
    So, when someone posts about a fund I own now and says, Well, in 2022, it lost more than another fund or in the last 10 years, this fund was better than another, I don't care, what matters is what the fund is doing now.
    2) We discussed PVCMX several months ago and I said why own it now. YTD is made only 4.2%. Does anyone own this fund and feel great?
    3) ICMUX made YTD 8.5%(there are better bond options). Retirees who have enough and want low SD performance should be very happy to make it in bonds. I know fred is in this camp.
    Where can I sign for 3-5% annually over inflation and I keep the money?
    4) What about QQMNX? I have tested so many ALT funds, especially AQR funds, and was never impressed about their LT. It is also very difficult to hold them when the market is running away. ALT funds can do a better job in more volatile markets, but remember, if the managers make 1 mistake every year, it can be costly.
    In 2022 QQMNX did well, but in 2023 it made 5% while SPY made 26%. Would you hold that long?
    5) Retirees who have enough can avoid the big losses easier than accumulators who must stay invested all the time.
    6) Someone who can't time markets and wants to own 10%, maybe 20% in ALT funds and hold LT? why not.
    BTW, I don't love or hate any fund/manager, I dislike laggers, especially the ones that lag for 1-2 and more years while many hang on.
  • Portfolio Withdrawal Strategies
    Hidden Challenges of the Bucket Strategy:

  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    @WABAC, you may have sat in the station too long. The bond-train left the station when discussion and anticipation of lower rates started, around the start of 2023, right around the time many were heavily focused on short-term bond safety. I still believe intermediate duration bond funds are a good bet through 2025, but they may need to rest after getting ahead of themselves on rate cut expectations. Just my 2-cents.
  • Income Producing Assets - How do they Impact Your Net Worth?
    Let say I buy a annuity, own rental property, apply for Social Security, and receive a pension along with any other income producing asset. I have often wondered how these income producing (in periodic payments) assets are calculated into my net worth and my overall portfolio asset allocation.
    Annuity:
    The annuity pays individuals differently, but for the sake of the discussion let's say you buy a 5% fix annuity. You won't actually know what you lifetime payout will be (until you die), but you would expect ($300K*5%) periodically ($15K/yr for example). Eventually, a annuity dies with you. Does annuity income add to your net worth while alive? Is it subtracted when you die (not that you care, but your heirs might).
    Social Security:
    Social Security seems to be set up in a similar manner (plus a COLA rider), but your payout is determined instead your work income history. SS goes away upon death and so does its net worth value. Does it have a net worth value while alive.
    Rental Property:
    If you bought a $300K home and rented it for income, you might hope to net 10% ROI or $30K/yr. The property has to be managed and maintained. Upon death, the property has value. While living, a rental asset provides rental income. Both seem to be additive to one's net worth in life and death.
    Pension Income:
    From the linked article:
    For example, if your pension pays out $40,000 a year, you expect to live 30 years, and your discount rate is 4%, then your pension would be worth around $692,000 today. You can get this value by plugging all of these values into a financial calculator [Payment = $40,000, Future Value = $0, Interest/Year = 4%, Periods = 30, Periods/Year = 1] and then solving for the Present Value. In other words, if you had $692,000 today (Present Value) that was earning 4% per year, you would be able to withdraw $40,000 per year for 30 years before running out of money.
    This article might lend itself to help determine how these income producing assets impact net worth.
    how-much-is-my-pension-worth/
  • Small/mid cap ETF
    You might consider CPAI (Counterpoint Quant Equity ETF, a multi-cap growth fund. Age 0.8 years; 11.96 financials (not heavy); YTD return 33.4% through September beats SP 500 by 5.7%; ER .75.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I can buy and sell EMPIX at Fidelity, but that may be because I invested in it long ago. This may change. CBYYX is available at Fidelity at a low minimum but only for some retirement plans. SHRIX is available no load at InteractiveBrokers, see Mutual Fund Search Tool there. A small problem: it is offered with 500K minimum.
    when CBYYX wasn't open to me at Fidelity, i transferred a single share over from Schwab and then was good to go ... except that F charges a fee for CBYYX trades and S does not.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    As the old joke goes: The secret ofcomedyistiming.
    Bought CBLDX on September 12 for 9.76$ per share. It closed Friday at 9.7549. So it could be around for a while. If M* can be believed, it's return of .05% last week was less than SPAXX's return of .07. M* also had VRIG and USFR ahead of SPAXX, CBLDX, RSIIX, RPHYX. CSOIX was a winner last week, but a loser by too much for me in 2022.
    Things liable to go if we start poorly on Monday are TBUX, USTB, XONE, and WSHNX.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX

    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.
    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.

    I'm already underwater with CBLDX.
    I have a limited appetite for junk.
    @WABAC You seem to have as good a handle on bonds as anyone here. So surprised by your comment on CBLDX. On a total return basis it is at an all time high. Or am I missing something. I hold a position in CBLDX as a sub for cash - at least for now.
    https://stockcharts.com/sc3/ui/?s=CBLDX
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX

    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.
    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.
    I'm already underwater with CBLDX.
    I have a limited appetite for junk.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I'm just looking for some things to beat SPAXX
    My goodness. No jumping needed. Any of the Riverpark or Crossbridge funds have been doing that since the start of 2023 with the smoothest ride you can ask for (RSIVX, CBLDX for example). Heck, even the ultra-conservative RPHYX has done as well or better than CDs and MMs. Take a look at CSOAX/CSOIX for another smooth ride with a bit more horsepower. 5-star and a great owl fund. I'm sure there are many other examples too.
    MM's, treasuries and CD's have been great if you want zero risk, and that is understandable for many here. But more lucrative options may have opened up many many months ago.
  • Preparing your Portfolio for Rate Cuts
    I can buy and sell EMPIX at Fidelity, but that may be because I invested in it long ago. This may change. CBYYX is available at Fidelity at a low minimum but only for some retirement plans. SHRIX is available no load at InteractiveBrokers, see Mutual Fund Search Tool there. A small problem: it is offered with 500K minimum.
    And tropical storm Milton is forecast to become a hurricane Sunday night, and be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches the west coast of the Florida Peninsula by mid week. Life is never dull.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    According to the Q2 2024 commentary, CBLDX contained 27.3% international holdings. I am assuming that consists mainly of Nordic companies.
    My question then becomes, "Does CBLDX already function as a global high income fund that incorporates the best US and Int'l ideas from the CrossingBridge investment team?" If so, is NRDCX therefore redundant and unnecessary for me to add to my portfolio?

    If my math is correct, CBLDX held only 0.5% Norway (NOK) plus 3.7% Sweden (SEK) securities based on 2Q 2024 holdings. I cannot say if there are any EUR or USD based Nordic investments buried in there, too.
  • BONDS The week that was.... December 31, 2024..... Bond NAV's...Most positive. FINAL REPORT 2024
    NOTE:
    My intention, at this time; is to present the data for the selected bond sectors, as listed; through the end of the year (2024). This 'end date' will take us through the U.S. elections period, pending actions/legislation dependent upon the election results, pending Federal Reserve actions and market movers trying to 'guess' future directions of the U.S. economy. As important during this period, are any number of global circumstances that may take a path that is not expected; and/or 'new' circumstances. In the 'cooking pot' we currently have the big ingredients of the middle east and also, how much damage Ukraine may inflict upon Russia and the response.

    W/E October 4, 2024..... Overall face slap for bond NAV's
    --- This week found the w/e NAV price results for the vast majority of bond sectors to have followed the overall trend for each day of the week; down, down, down. If there was any flight to safety from the ongoing conflict in the middle east, it was not very apparent in government issues; as pricing was quite negative for this area. Very positive employment data reduced the hopes for FED actions to reduce interest rates at a larger and for a longer period of time. Yields were higher for the week. The MINT etf, to the best of my recall, has maintained a positive price for the year, each and every week.
    A few numbers for your viewing pleasure.

    FIRST:
    *** UST yields chart, 6 month - 30 year. This chart is active and will display a 6 month time frame going forward to a future date. Place/hover the mouse pointer anywhere on a line to display the date and yield for that date. The percent to the right side is the percentage change in the yield from the chart beginning date for a particular item. You may also 'right click' on the 126 days at the chart bottom to change a 'time frame' from a drop down menu. Hopefully, the line graph also lets you view the 'yield curve' in a different fashion, for the longer duration issues, at this time. Save the page to your own device for future reference. NOTE: take a peek at the right side of this graph to find the yield swings of the past week, and for the current yields for the last business day.
    For the WEEK/YTD, NAV price changes, September 30 - October 4, 2024
    ***** This week (Friday), FZDXX, MM yield continues to move with Fed funds/repo/SOFR rates; and ended the week at 4.7% yield (no change). Fidelity's MM's continue to maintain decent yields, as is presumed with other vendors similar MM's. Theoretically, a new yield bottom is in place, until the next FED action. SO, one is still obtaining a decent MM yield.
    --- AGG = -1.22% / +3.51% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.08% / +4.61% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.57% / +3.55% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEI = -1.25% / +3.21% (UST 3-7 yr notes/bonds)
    --- IEF = -1.67% / +2.71% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.93% / +3.94% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- VTIP = -.39% / +4.54% (Vanguard Short-Term Infl-Prot Secs ETF)
    --- STPZ = -.53% / +4.40% (UST, short duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- LTPZ = -1.67% / +2.89 % (UST, long duration TIPs bonds, PIMCO)
    --- TLT = -2.75% / -.48% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- EDV = -3.55% / -2.67% (UST Vanguard extended duration bonds)
    --- ZROZ = -3.67% / -4.74% (UST., AAA, long duration zero coupon bonds, PIMCO
    --- TBT = +5.93% / +7.57% (ProShares UltraShort 20+ Year Treasury (about 23 holdings)
    --- TMF = -8.34% / -15.1% (Direxion Daily 20+ Yr Trsy Bull 3X ETF (about a 2x version of EDV etf)
    *** Additional important bond sectors, for reference:
    --- BAGIX = -1.29% / +3.87% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -1.18% / +4.16% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- BKLN = +.48% / +6.04% (Invesco Senior Loan, Corp. rated BB & lower)
    --- HYG = -.46% / +7.67% (High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    --- HYD = -.19%/+5.60% (VanEck HY Muni)
    --- MUB = -.37% /+1.89% (I Shares, National Muni Bond)
    --- EMB = -.57%/+7.85% (I Shares, USD, Emerging Markets Bond)
    --- CWB = -.18% / +7.61% (SPDR Bloomberg Convertible Securities)
    --- PFF = -.34% / +11.38% (I Shares, Preferred & Income Securities)
    --- FZDXX = 4.70% yield (7 day), Fidelity Premium MM fund
    *** FZDXX yield was .11%, April,2022. (For reference to current date)
    Comments and corrections, please.
    Remain curious,
    Catch
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Experts are warning that a recent contract to supply Oklahoma’s Department of Education with an estimated 55,000 bibles might actually represent a breach of state law. That’s after the contract’s exacting specifications came to light—and they only really seem to favor one version: Lee Greenwood’s God Bless the U.S.A. Bible, often referred to as the Trump Bible for its endorsement from the former president himself.
    At $60 a pop, the contract would net its publisher something in the region of $3.3 million, with some of that going back to Donald Trump in fees. “It appears to me that this bid is anything but competitive,” former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson told The Oklahoman on Friday.
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-bible-is-one-of-the-only-versions-approved-for-oklahoma-schools
    Tell me you're [ VERB ] without telling me you're [VERB]ing.
    VERB: Sucking-up, laundering money, making illegal campaign contributions, grifting etc, etc.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    Per John Conner, when I asked about projected yield, he answered it will be based on the securities purchased. Of course it is, but he also said it is generally 1.5-2% over US companies. So I am guessing around 9%+ yield, if using CBLDX and RSIIX as the basis. If using OSTIX then maybe 8%+.
  • CrossingBridge Nordic High Income Bond Fund in registration
    NRDCX is now available at FIDO.
    $5K min, plus a $49.95 trading fee.
  • QQMNX is a Promising Alternative Fund
    For the past two months, I have been following two "Market Neutral" funds, QQMNX and VMNFX, which held up very well and provided some protection during recent market downturns. New managers have been at the helm of both funds since 2021.
    As MikeM said: "I have to admit, QQMNX is a tempting alternative in this alternative field for a less bumpy ride and, so far, excellent returns."
    ..............QQMNX....VMNFX
    YTD.........15.6%.......8.9%
    3 YRS.......14.4........14.8
    5 YRS.......10.3..........8.2
    2022..........9.5.........13.5
    Std. Dev....8.6%.......7.3%
    As a retired investor who doesn't need a lot more money, preserving capital is more important to me than seeking sizeable returns on capital. While both funds have excellent risk/reward profiles, I have decided to add QQMNX to my portfolio at this time of fairly high equity valuations.
    A couple other market neutral funds you can consider: BDMAX and JMNAX. BDMAX has outperformed QQMNX over the last 1 and 2 year trailing periods, and has a higher Sharpe ratio and lower standard deviation over the last 3 years according to Morningstar data. JMNAX has had lower returns, but has a smooth ride. I use a combination of BDMAX and JMNAX, but I might consider adding QQMNX. Thanks for bringing it up.
  • WealthTrack Show
    Oct 5th Episode:
    Guest Abby Joseph Cohen - Part 2:
    The tide went out during the pandemic and it exposed where the problems exist globally
    ONE INVESTMENT
    COHEN: THINK OUTSIDE THE U.S.
    Long period of U.S. outperformance
    International markets less expensive
    Offer exposure to different industries
    MSCI EAFE Index: Europe, Australasia & Far East
    Large & mid-cap developed market stocks, excluding the U.S. and Canada


    A related article on Deficits and the stock market:
    deficits are horrible, but they are bullish
  • Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q3–October 7, 2024)
    Barron’s Funds Quarterly+ (2024/Q3–October 7, 2024)
    https://www.barrons.com/topics/mutual-funds-quarterly
    (Performance data quoted in this Supplement are for 2024/Q3 and YTD to 9/30/24)
    Pg L2: With the new CEO Salim RAMJI onboard, Vanguard is making some changes. Rather than lowering the ERs by tiny/small amounts across the board, it will move selectively in areas of active management with disruptive low ERs, with an initial push into active bond funds. It has also developed in-house capabilities for bonds, unlike its equity and allocation/hybrid funds that mostly use external advisors. In the passive area, the ETF giants are Vanguard and iShares/BlackRock, and mutual fund giants are Vanguard and Fidelity (not so well-known). But growth in the passive fund area is limited for these giant players. That game has been played and these parties have won.
    Growth areas now are ETFs (tax-efficiency and market hour trading), bond funds (much larger and fragmented market compared to equities), alternatives (private-market is huge now as many unicorns and smaller companies remain private longer; but Vanguard won’t touch cryptos), RIA channels (but that won’t work without improving Vanguard’s poor M-F, 8-8 customer service). Rather than pushing into all areas at once, it will move selectively into areas with maximum disruptive low-cost effects.
    Pg L7 In 2024/Q3, gold funds, China funds and bond proxies (bond funds, utilities, real estate. Dividend stocks) rallied due to geopolitics (for gold), the Fed rate cut and China easing. The value funds also did well. (By @LewisBraham at MFO)
    More on Funds & Retirement
    INCOME. Dividend and dividend-growth stocks are coming back in favor after the Fed rate cut. US ETFs: SCHD, VYM, VIG, DIVB; China ETF: PGJ. Several stocks are also mentioned.
    RETIREMENT. MEDICARE open enrollment period (OEP) is from October 15 – December 7. As there are many changes for Parts B, D, C/MA, don’t just throw away the recent notices you got about them; drug formularies may change too. Part D will have $2K out-of-pocket limit for covered drug costs (so, you will be out of luck if the drug isn’t covered); premiums will also go down a little. Medicare Advantage/C plans face higher costs and tighter government reimbursements, and many insurers are curtailing (reducing extra coverages, increasing premiums & deductibles) or exiting (Wellcare/Centene-CNC in 6 states) the MA/C market. Humana MA dropped a notch in its government rating and is discontinuing MA/C in 13 counties. If your MA/C plan is discontinued, and you don’t do anything, you will be enrolled in the original Medicare and will have the opportunity to get Medigap insurance without medical underwriting; normally, it’s hard to go back from MA/C to original Medicate due to the underwriting required for Medigap insurance. Make sure that your doctors are still in the plan.
    Barron’s weekend issue has CASH TRACK charts showing 4-wMA of flows. A screenshot link will be included quarterly in the Summaries.
    https://i.ibb.co/Chcbzrj/Barrons-Cash-Track-100524.png
    image
    Barron’s discontinued quarterly FUND CATEGORY PERFORMANCE table in 2024 that were used to highlight the best and the worst performing fund categories. The new MFOP Quarterly tool (see MFO, October 2024) can generate a similar table and the screenshot links for Top 5 and Bottom 5 follow. Both Barron’s and MFOP use Lipper fund databases.
    Q3 Top 5 https://i.ibb.co/bJT3M6T/MFOP-Quarterly-Top5-100424.png
    image
    Q3 Bottom 5 https://i.ibb.co/CwV2Vx3/MFOP-Quarterly-Bottom5-100424.png
    image
    LINK
  • DJT in your portfolio - the first two funds reporting (edited)
    Experts are warning that a recent contract to supply Oklahoma’s Department of Education with an estimated 55,000 bibles might actually represent a breach of state law. That’s after the contract’s exacting specifications came to light—and they only really seem to favor one version: Lee Greenwood’s God Bless the U.S.A. Bible, often referred to as the Trump Bible for its endorsement from the former president himself.
    At $60 a pop, the contract would net its publisher something in the region of $3.3 million, with some of that going back to Donald Trump in fees. “It appears to me that this bid is anything but competitive,” former state Attorney General Drew Edmondson told The Oklahoman on Friday.
    https://www.thedailybeast.com/trump-bible-is-one-of-the-only-versions-approved-for-oklahoma-schools