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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • These Funds Have Faced Extreme Flows

    curious if anyone has already estimated total return to date for [prcfx-prwcx]
    a. in 2025
    b. since 2024 election
    YTD PRWCX +0.81%, PRCFX +1.05%
    From 11/5/24, PRWCX +1.05%, PRCFX +1.42%
    PRCFX inception was 11/29/23. Since then, PRWCX +18.87%, PRCFX +11.40%
  • These Funds Have Faced Extreme Flows

    curious if anyone has already estimated total return to date for [prcfx-prwcx]
    a. in 2025
    b. since 2024 election
  • Tariffs

    every 1-on-1 negotiation meeting exists to serve corruption and publicity, so there is only the highly predictable left to say after some ~100 new EOs on trade :
    [trump] told reporters he would look at specific industry requests for exemptions.
    But preferred to keep the duties broader and less complicated.
    "I want to make it nice and simple. I'm not looking to have so many exemptions that nobody knows what we're doing. We have to make it very simple."

    https://www.yahoo.com/news/trump-not-willing-cut-u-054533015.html
  • Social Security Changes
    If you are receiving SOCIAL SECURITY, be aware of several changes - WEP/GPO repeal, overdue student loans, fixes for SSA mistakes, online vs phone vs in-person services.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/11/social-security-changes-to-monitor-under-new-agency-leadership.html
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    Read more about ICI viewpoint here, https://www.ici.org/news-release/25-private-markets-accessible
    ICI's argument is that private-equity markets are sufficiently developed now, so the regulators don't have to put gates that practically allow only institutions and wealthy to participate.
    If you are a holder of Fido or other active growth funds, your fund likely has exposure to Private-equity.
    So, the question is, should the gates be removed or just lowered for retail investors?
  • ICI Fact Book, 2025
    ICI Fact Book, 2025
    New 2025 ICI Factbook is available. Both full PDF (long) & separate chapter PDFs are available; downloadable Excel files for each chapter are also available.
    #ICI #MutualFunds #OEFs #ETFs #CEFs #TDFs #529s #401k #403b #IRAs
    Fact Book Website www.icifactbook.org/
  • Tariffs
    Calculating Tariffs - It's Complicated
    "There are also 3,450 temporary levies, covered in the 690-page 'Chapter 99' of the Harmonized Tariff Schedule,
    which includes tariffs from the Trump and Biden administrations going back to 2018."

    "Chapter 99 has already been revised 11 times this year, compared with once for all of 2017.
    Customs brokers must keep up with the changes and know which codes to add for each product
    and country of origin. Sometimes these rates get stacked on each other, and sometimes only one rate prevails."

    "These rapid shifts in policy are compounded by White House communications that aren’t specific enough
    for their work. 'First it’s a tweet, then it’s an executive order,' a Los Angeles area customs broker told Barron’s.
    'But that wording, it’s close. But it’s not technical enough for us in the industry to be able to move on it.'”

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/news/trump-s-tariffs-turned-a-sleepy-industry-into-the-front-lines-of-the-trade-war/ar-AA1EiNCw
  • Private-Equity Wants a Piece of Your 401(k)
    FUNDS. There is a push by the fund trade association ICI to expand access to PRIVATE-MARKETS. Several firms are also pushing in this area. Private-market AUM now is $25 trillion vs $4 trillion in 2013. Many companies are remaining private for longer and several are unicorns already. Private-market remains the domain of institutions, pension funds and accredited-investors; access is through financial advisors. There are only a handful of listed funds, interval-funds and nontraded funds. But the fund industry wants retail customers. In particular, ICI wants the 15% cap on alternatives raised for retail CEFs, inclusion of some private-market options in 401k/403b, and other changes.
    https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/thread/810/weekly-business-digest-12-2025
  • The Week in Charts | Charlie Bilello
    The Week in Charts (05/09/25)
    The most important charts and themes in markets and investing, including:
    00:00 Intro
    00:17 Topics
    00:47 First Trade Deal
    09:25 Markets Pricing in a Positive Tariff Ending
    11:51 The World Strikes Back (International Stock Outperformance)
    15:06 The Fed Pause Continues
    19:23 No Signs Yet of Higher Prices
    23:33 The Second Home Slump
    26:42 Declining Poverty Rates
    Video
    Blog
  • Tariffs
    That is the same person, but he is serving too many bosses.
    Still try to figure out why he took this job when he made many folds more as a hedge fund manager. If that is not money, he must be aiming to get to a position that he could not get otherwise. My guess is the next Fed chairman when Powell’s term is up in 2026. There are other candidates in the wing as well.
    Now the tariffs is reduced from 145% to 80%. These must be the alternative math. Just serving a mob boss.
  • Tariffs
    Hi @fred495 and @Observant1 Thank you for the articles/links.
    I'm sure the UAW pro-Trumpee's (who were about to have a love-fest in public with the Donald) while at a recent rally in Warren, MI are still self assured all will be well, given enough time. I suspect that where we live in Michigan, we may be able to hear the large head slaps when their day arrives. I 'only' visit two Facebook pages of far right folks who I worked with 20 years ago. Neither of these folks are writers in their own right. They only copy and paste 'whatever' from other FB pages into their sites. The point being.....these folks only find and throw the garbage and lies to their pages. There isn't any backup links or data about a given statement. This remains the problem that the reasonable folks having common sense can't grasp. These folks are lost and part of a cult. Scary stuff.
    They don't realize that they will likely become part of the damage taking shape.
  • Tariffs

    i.e., trump is telling big3 its time to cough up again...and offer that F150 special edition in mascara orange by trumpcoin only.
    https://fr8technologies.com/press-release/freight-technologies-secures-up-to-usd-20-million-to-create-an-official-trump-token-trump-treasury/
  • Tariffs
    "A group representing General Motors (GM.N), Ford (F.N), and Stellantis (STLAM.MI),
    blasted President Donald Trump's trade deal announced with the United Kingdom,
    saying it would harm the U.S. auto sector."

    "'Under this deal, it will now be cheaper to import a UK vehicle with very little U.S. content
    than a USMCA compliant vehicle from Mexico or Canada that is half American parts,'
    the American Automotive Policy Council, which represents the Detroit Three automakers,
    said on Thursday. 'This hurts American automakers, suppliers, and auto workers.'"

    https://www.reuters.com/business/autos-transportation/detroit-three-automakers-blast-trump-uk-trade-deal-2025-05-08/
  • Tariffs
    FYI, here is an excerpt from an article in today's NYT that brings the US/China tariff situation up to date:
    "President Trump suggested on Friday that he was open to sharply reducing the tariffs that the United States had imposed on China, as American and Chinese negotiators prepare to meet in Switzerland this weekend for high-stakes trade talks.
    Trade tensions between the United States and China have roiled international markets and the global economy. The negotiations on Saturday and Sunday are intended to de-escalate the situation and help set the stage for a broader trade pact between the two economic superpowers.
    In a post on social media, Mr. Trump said that an 80 percent tariff on China “seems right,” adding that it would be “up to Scott B,” an apparent reference to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent.
    An 80 percent tariff would be a big drop from the current 145 percent that Mr. Trump imposed on Chinese imports in recent months. But that high a level would still shut off most trade between the countries. Chinese data released on Friday showed shipments from that country to the United States plunged 21 percent in April from the same period a year ago.
    This week, the two sides agreed to hold meetings in Geneva that will include Mr. Bessent; Jamieson Greer, the U.S. trade representative; and He Lifeng, China’s vice premier for economic policy.
    The recent elevation of Mr. Bessent, who is viewed as a pragmatist on trade, to lead the talks with China has also helped to calm markets. The Treasury secretary has argued that the tariffs and trade restrictions that the United States and China have levied are “unsustainable” and has urged Beijing to begin talks to address what the Trump administration views as unfair trade practices.
    Despite signs of greater flexibility from Mr. Trump, an 80 percent tariff may not be low enough to restart business across the Pacific.
    While it differs from company to company, some executives have said that tariffs above 50 percent are generally enough to freeze exports to the United States. Companies that are not able to find an alternative source of supply for their products outside China are facing the prospect of bankruptcy and layoffs as the summer grinds on and even 25 percent tariffs can be crippling.
    Economists have warned that the chances of a recession in the United States are rising because of Mr. Trump’s tariffs. Last month, the International Monetary Fund downgraded its outlook for the United States and global output."

  • the May MFO is live!
    I enjoyed the inaugural article and the article for "building a chaos-resistant portfolio".
    I haven't had an opportunity to read all the May 2025 articles yet...
    Glad that you're chugging along just fine!
  • Tariffs
    The "major trade deal" with the UK is not as comprehensive as some may have suggested.
    "Trump declared on social media this announcement would be a "major trade deal" - it's not.
    He does not have the authority to sign the type of free-trade agreement India
    and the UK finalised earlier this week - this lies with Congress.
    Congress would need to approve a trade agreement, which would take longer
    than the 90-day pause in place on some of Trump's tariffs.
    This is an agreement which has reversed or cut some of those tariffs on specific goods.
    It is only the bare bones of a narrow agreement,
    there will be months of negotiations and legal paperwork to follow.
    "

    https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c15ng4g5g0eo
  • the May MFO is live!
    Albeit a bit delayed by what seemed like a pretty routine respiratory infection about which my doctor, a generally delightful young practitioner, decided to get all apocalyptic. Missed three days of classes, which is a 41-year record for me, but I'm chugging along just fine.
    Highlights of the issue are Lynn Bolin's ongoing attempts to help us think clearly in turbulent times, most particularly about the possibility that fixed-income funds are actually more attractive in their environment than growth funds.
    Quick Launch Alert on the latest member of TRP's Capital Appreciation suite, Premium Equity Income. My reading is PRWCX with an options overlay.
    Profile of Dynamic Alpha Macro, which mates a low-cost equity ETF sleeve with a macro hedge fund. More correctly, the futures trading sleeve is advised by the manager of a hedge fund which also, and separately, embodies the strategy. Though Dynamic understandably doesn't talk about the hedge fund with appears to have returns north of 10% APR over 10+ years, with a correlation to the S&P 500 of -0.1.
    Updates on Chaos-Resistant portfolios, including a tip of the hat to Lewis Braham's fine essay on the subject.
    Charles has added functionality to MFO Premium (daily fund flows?) and The Shadow continues to highlight the industry's activities, including what seems to be an impulse to convert funds to ETFs rather than liquidate them.
    For what joy that all brings!
    David