Thanks @Charles. Nice charts.
After today PRWCX is off about 3.5% YTD. Truly insignificant following consecutive years of +18%. and +24%. The fact some $$ has flowed dribbled out does not surprise. I’d have expected more.

@Crash Quarterly earnings report for ET, tomorrow, Tuesday; may provide a better picture going forward.

True. I put in the limit order on last Thursday, overnight.

Next, ex-div date on 09 May, '25, Friday. Since earnings, the stock price has soared. I expect a drop on Friday. Mr. Market continues, as ever, to overreact in the short-term. Always the short-term. And always overreacting, whether to good or bad news.

@hank. Looks like about $500M outflows in past 3 months.

@hank. Looks like $1.3B outflows in past 10 months, or less than 1%.

Easy example of moving the goalpost.
The yearly inflation in 2025 is down from 3% to 2.4%.
Is this great? Yes.
None of the articles mentioned it, but they tell you the inflation will be terrible months from now, inventories will be down and our kids will not be able to buy what they want.

By Jennifer Rubin, The Contrarian
"The economy is at the mercy of the least informed president in history"
Trump’s scattered brain creates havoc
From Paul Krugman:
"Why you shouldn’t get excited about his “deals”"
Will Trump Pretend to Fix What He Broke?

Now that tariffs are significantly affecting GDP, it's become a bit more important to understand just what GDP represents and how it is calculated. I posted something similar here:
https://mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/191776/#Comment_191776
While nearly all (90%+) of tariffs are generally paid on the importer (US) side, that doesn't mean that the end consumer is paying all of that.
"the correct value of this elasticity [pass through percentage of tariffs to importers] is close to 1 (0.945 to be exact), based on the single study they cited. Brent Neiman"
https://www.aei.org/economics/trumps-tariff-formula-is-still-wrong-maybe-thats-why-no-one-will-admit-they-created-it/
My economics class professor said that the actual percentage passed through to end consumers is much less than that. That is, importing companies eat a good portion of the tariffs.
However, these are not normal tariffs (145%?) and I doubt importers and retailers are going to absorb the bulk of those ridiculous fees.

"Fund flows are kind of funny; they can be bad, good, or indifferent.
A fund wants a slow but steady flow of new money so managers can add a little more than they sell.
But the markets are not always so kind.
Sometimes flows come or go in a hurry, and that’s a problem."
"Let’s look at some of the funds that were at both extremes of the flow spectrum over the trailing year
through March 2025.
I’ll focus on active funds because flows rarely affect passive funds’ ability to execute their approaches."
https://www.morningstar.com/funds/these-funds-have-faced-extreme-flows-can-they-handle-it

This interval-fund (IV) is from Wellington Management/Vanguard and Blackstone/BX.
"Principal Investment Strategies. The Fund seeks to achieve its investment objective by obtaining exposure to a broad range of public and private market investments through individual securities, pooled investment vehicles, and derivatives. The Fund will utilize a flexible investment strategy across public and private equity and fixed income markets. Under normal market conditions, the Fund will seek investment exposure within the Fund’s portfolio to: (i) public equities investments in the range of 40% to 60% of the Fund’s net assets, (ii) public fixed income investments in the range of 15% to 30% of the Fund’s net assets, and (iii) private markets investments in the range of 25% to 40% of the Fund’s net assets (collectively, the “Underlying Exposures”)....
Underlying Exposure to private markets, passively managed equities and public fixed income assets shall be obtained through allocations of the Fund’s assets by the Adviser to investment vehicles (each, an “Underlying Fund” and collectively, the “Underlying Funds”) managed by affiliates of Blackstone Inc. (together with its affiliates, “Blackstone”) or by The Vanguard Group, Inc. or its affiliates (together with its affiliates, “Vanguard”), as applicable...
Investment Adviser. The investment manager to the Fund is Wellington Management Company LLP (“WMC” or the “Adviser”). The Adviser is registered as an investment adviser with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (the “SEC”) under the Investment Advisers Act of 1940, as amended (“Advisers Act”). The Adviser is responsible for the Fund’s investment strategy and the day-to-day management of the Fund’s assets...."
https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/2065909/000139834425008938/fp0093540-1_n2.htm
Credits LinkedIn 1 LinkedIn 2

AAII Sentiment Survey, 5/7/25
BEARISH remained the top sentiment (51.5%, very high) & neutral remained the bottom sentiment (19.0%, very low); bullish remained the middle sentiment (29.4%, below average); Bull-Bear Spread was -22.1%* (very low). Investor concerns: Tariffs, jobs, inflation, recession, Fed, budget, debt, dollar, geopolitical, Russia-Ukraine (167+ weeks), Israel-Hamas (67+6 weeks). For the Survey week (Th-Wed), stocks up, bonds down, oil down, gold up, dollar up. NYSE %Above 50-dMA 47.09% (negative). Fed maintained rates at 4.25-4.50%. #AAII #Sentiment #Markets
Sentiments are CONTRARIAN indicators.
*Negative since 2/5/25.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1978/thread

We're hanging on out of TRUST in him? What color is the sky on Bessent's home planet, I wanna know. I'm hanging on in white-knuckle fashion, for dear life. And have 25% of total portfolio in cash, hiding from the Orange Fool. I count myself just plain lucky that I'm into the two single-stocks that I chose. One is offshore.

Bought GDL for my CEF basket priced at a 22.75% discount to NAV. Sold CPZ which appeared fairly valued.

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/06/trump-tariffs-hit-us-exports-import-covid-level-event.html
Trump trade tariffs slump widens to ‘nearly all U.S. exports,’ supply chain data shows
PUBLISHED TUE, MAY 6 20257:32 AM EDT UPDATED TUE, MAY 6 20259:54 AM EDT
Lori Ann LaRocco
KEY POINTS
*An exports slide that began in early 2025 has reached most ports across the U.S. and nearly all export market products as the trade impact of President Donald Trump’s tariffs worsens, with agriculture the hardest hit.
*As businesses cancel orders from China, U.S. imports continue to plummet, with a 43% week-over-week drop in containers through April 28.
*“We haven’t seen anything like this since the disruptions of summer 2020,” said Kyle Henderson, CEO of trade tracker Vizion. “That means goods expected to arrive in the next six to eight weeks simply won’t. With tariffs driving costs higher, small businesses are pausing orders. Products that once moved reliably are now twice as expensive, forcing importers into tough decisions,” he said.
(No references to "boats"!)

"Tough to invest in this kind of environment."
For sure!

Many investors kept holding because they are not traders.
https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/29/treasury-secretary-says-individual-investors-trust-president-trump.html
"Vanguard, one of the largest money management firms in America, said that over the past 100 days, 97% of Americans haven’t done a trade"

NOTES
Rates: Fed funds held at 4.25-4.50%, bank reserves rate at 4.40%, discount rate at 4.50%. Treasury QT continued -$5 billion/mo, MBS QT at -$35 billion/mo.
Economy & job market are strong. Inflation is a bit higher than the target 2%+. Fed's dual mandate looks in balance now. However, risks to both inflation & job market have risen. Fed is patient & will wait to see which way the tilt may be. There is no clarity now on soft landing, stagflation or recession.
Sentiments & soft data have deteriorated significantly & that is concerning. Hard data remain good. Their linkage is weak but the changes in soft data cannot be ignored either. Uncertainties are high.
https://ybbpersonalfinance.proboards.com/post/1976/thread

WABC. good knowledge. Actually I enjoy 13 and traffic,as they refer to themselves on San Francisco Bay, because I like to listen to the professionals.

I spent 25 years on 10.
I was trained by an old Coastie. Don't talk like a trucker. Don't talk like a cop. Don't talk like you're in the army. Never raise your voice because the mike doesn't work that way, develop a presence, etc.

FOMC Statement, 5/7/25
https://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20250507a.htm

"A portfolio constructed for long-term resilience will be well served by a high-quality government-bond allocation,
in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages.
The 2022 experience—as well as 2025 thus far—also illustrates the virtue of cash in a balanced portfolio,
particularly for investors who are retired and actively drawing upon their portfolios for living expenses.
While cash might not earn much over inflation over long periods of time, a modest allocation can provide
both safety and liquidity when stocks and bonds fall simultaneously."
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/diversification-stocks-cash-has-made-good-case-itself

M* said similar stuff 10-15 years ago about "a high-quality government-bond allocation,
in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages"
BND(US Tot bond index) made 1.5% average annually for 10 years and 2.3% for 15 years.
Now, after bonds didn't work in 2022, Benz says, use cash.
Soon, she is going to say, use common sense; when the Fed tells you it's going to raise rates rapidly in 2022, you should be out for months.

Mark the day, for I am agreeing with FD on something.
Most of this kind of analysis is rearwards-looking anyway and generated by folks who feel you need to have your money 'somewhere' that is earning 'something' or else you're failing as an investor.
I've never been a big bond person but for years I've had dry powder stored in idle cash earning nothing or in something uber-short-term like SGOV if I'm in one of my "f-you Schwab policies" moods.
IMO sometimes just having a fat chunk of cash sitting in an interest-free MM/sweep account or in t-bills is more SWAN-ny than trying to play asset allocations amongst fixed income instruments. (While I like making money, I don't feel the need to eek every last red cent out of the markets, and SWAN-ny reserves, while perhaps annoying to see at times, provided reassurance.)

.........I have to think that $250K is a typo?

"A portfolio constructed for long-term resilience will be well served by a high-quality government-bond allocation,
in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages.
The 2022 experience—as well as 2025 thus far—also illustrates the virtue of cash in a balanced portfolio,
particularly for investors who are retired and actively drawing upon their portfolios for living expenses.
While cash might not earn much over inflation over long periods of time, a modest allocation can provide
both safety and liquidity when stocks and bonds fall simultaneously."
https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/diversification-stocks-cash-has-made-good-case-itself

M* said similar stuff 10-15 years ago about "a high-quality government-bond allocation,
in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages"
BND(US Tot bond index) made 1.5% average annually for 10 years and 2.3% for 15 years.
Now, after bonds didn't work in 2022, Benz says, use cash.
Soon, she is going to say, use common sense; when the Fed tells you it's going to raise rates rapidly in 2022, you should be out for months.