Apple sleazebags. News link. Apple is the only company I ever banned. This is based on
1) Steve Jobs mistreated his employees, co-workers, and family members. When Steve Jobs fired an employee, he would call other companies and tell them not to hire this person and lie about how bad this employee was, pretty vicious in my book.
2) It was Jobs's decision to charge ridiculous prices for a very high profit and Apple continues to practice it.
3) Apple doesn't offer cheaper prices, because they don't have to; their customers are a cult.
4) Apple makes it a lot more difficult to get out of its environment.
I know Apple has great products, but I don't have to participate in that.
Decades ago, the Apple laptop was about 4 times as expensive as a PC. Yes, I know it had fewer problems, but not anymore for many years. In over 20 years and using several PCs, my wife and I had only one virus, which I fixed in 5 minutes.
Apple phones are great, but we have been using Moto phones for decades at about 20% of the cost of Apple. Now we use a refurbished Pixel.
Sure, Apple is better, but I'm not going to pay 4-5 times more when Pixel is excellent.
I would not buy an expensive Samsung either, but at least they offer much cheaper phones.
A couple of years ago, I bought a refurbished business laptop for just $250K. Thinkpad with 16GB RAM, Windows 11 pro, and SSD=250 GB. This PC should be good for 95% of users.
Two weeks later I bought a refurbished Pixel 6A for $170 and both are great.
There is no reason to pay 3-4-5 times and get only 20% more, and I have plenty of money.
BTW, the service advisors at Kia and Hyundai told me that 90+% of the complaints about phone-to-vehicle services are about Apple phones.
My tracker watch costs $27.99 and it does most of the stuff Apple Tracker does that costs $300-400.
I keep replacing it every couple of years.
My current earbuds are another example: I paid just $11, half the price at Amazon. I have been using them for over a year. They are fantastic.
To get the top 5-10% of electronics, you will pay 3-5-10 times more. Remember, in 2-3 years, technology advances, so why pay so much more instead of replacing cheap electronics with a new one?
But, Apple has many obsessed/loyal customers, especially in the USA but not in the biggest growth markets of China and India.
Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports. You can stock up on TP at Amazon.
Only $3.20 / 100 sheets.
Amazon TPWhile shopping there, you could also purchase a toilet brush with a similar theme.
Amazon Brush
Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports. And dont forget: “They don’t need to have 250 pencils. They can have five.”
Equity Ballast @msf,
I previously saved the Christine Benz article from May 2019 locally on my computer (M* link now broken).
Benz used the
BBgBarc US Treasury 5-10 Year Index (MidT) to represent intermediate-term Treasuries.
The
BBgBarc US Treasury 20+ Year Index (LngT) represents long-term Treasuries.
Correlation coefficients for the S&P
500 (SP
500), Russell 2000 (R2000),
and MSCI EAFE (INTRL) are listed below for periods ending 04/30/2019.
3 Yr___
MidT_
LngTSP500 -0.23, -0.12
R2000 -0.33, -0.19
INTRL -0.1
5, -0.04
5 Yr___
MidT_
LngTSP500 -0.28, -0.18
R2000 -0.31, -0.20
INTRL -0.23, -0.16
10 Yr__
MidT_
LngTSP500 -0.37, -0.46
R2000 -0.42, -0.48
INTRL -0.31, -0.42
1
5 Yr__
MidT_
LngTSP500 -0.28, -0.30
R2000 -0.33, -0.33
INTRL -0.23, -0.26
BLX 1Q25 report. Reason for confidence:
As of March 31, 2025, 67% of total liquid assets
represented deposits placed with the Federal Reserve Bank of New
York (“FED”), and 23% of total liquid assets represented deposits
placed with highly rated U.S. banks.
The Bank obtains deposits from central banks, as well as from
multilaterals, commercial banks and corporations primarily located
in the Region. Total deposits amounted to $5,859 million at the end
of 1Q25 (+8% QoQ and +24% YoY), representing 57% of total
funding sources, compared to 52% a year ago, highlighting the
change in the funding structure towards increased reliance in
deposits.
As of March 31, 2025, the Bank’s Yankee CD program totaled $1,065
million, or 11% of total funding sources, providing granularity and complementing the short-term funding structure and long-standing
support from the Bank’s Class A shareholders (i.e.: central banks and
their designees), which represented 35% of total deposits at the end
of 1Q25. https://mcusercontent.com/6632e94d6daa1bdbf46f55a23/files/df5aa1c9-b39c-71c5-956c-82580004e8e7/PR1Q25_Eng_Full_Report.pdf**************************************************
About
Bladex:
Bladex, a multinational bank originally established by the central banks of Latin-American and Caribbean countries, began operations in 1979 to promote foreign trade and economic integration in the Region. The Bank, headquartered in Panama, also has offices in Argentina, Brazil, Colombia, Mexico, the United States of America, and a Representative License in Peru, supporting the regional expansion and servicing of its customer base, which includes financial institutions and corporations. Bladex is listed on the NYSE in the United States of America (NYSE: BLX), since 1992, and its shareholders include: central banks and state-owned banks and entities representing 23 Latin American countries, commercial banks and financial institutions, and institutional and retail investors through its public listing.
Equity Ballast "If things get bad enough the very highest quality bonds will shine - and the longer the duration the better.
That was the case in ‘07-‘09 when the house nearly burned down (financially speaking)."
Medium-term and long-term Treasuries have historically provided excellent diversification for equities.
Christine Benz penned an article several years ago which showed medium-term Treasuries (5 year?)
provided similar diversification benefits to long-term Treasuries with greatly reduced interest rate risk.
These results were found to be true during the various time periods studied then.
Buy Sell Why: ad infinitum. Added to FPNIX in IRA. Was considering an add to an individual agency bond, but want more flexibility to sell if needed, so went with FPNIX, which has over 75% in securitized bonds. Intend to enter the 10-yr treasury auction in the morning.
Equity Ballast Regarding DODBX, a new committee took over management of the fund in May 2022.
The team made changes to reduce volatility and increase diversification.
More international stocks were added as were short-term TIPS (new to the portfolio).
The team also established an ongoing 5% short position in the S&P 500.
Equity Ballast From Morningstar's 2025 Diversification Landscape report (link in preceding article).
I haven't read the entire 50+ page report.
Key Takeaways:
• The plain-vanilla version of a 60/40 portfolio (made up of US stocks and US investment-grade bonds)
gained about 15% in 2024. Diversifying into other asset classes generally led to lower returns.
• Although broader portfolio diversification was a net positive during the 2022 bear market,
the basic 60/40 portfolio, composed of US stocks and high-quality bonds,
has been tough to beat over longer periods.
A 60/40 portfolio improved risk-adjusted returns versus an all-stock benchmark
in more than 83% of the rolling 10-year periods dating back to 1976.
• Correlations between the United States and other developed markets around the world
have remained high while non-US stocks lagged by a wide margin through 2024,
raising questions about the long-term value of international diversification.
• Over the past 20 years several asset classes—including corporate bonds, global bonds, high-yield bonds, municipal bonds, REITs, and Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities—have become more closely correlated
with stocks. Many of these categories have also posted losses in periods of equity market stress.
In such periods, Treasury bonds, gold, commodities, and some alternative investment strategies
have been more compelling portfolio diversifiers.
• Diversification strategies that have worked in the past may not work in the future.
In a period of rising interest rates and/or above-average inflation, Treasuries and other high-quality bonds
would likely be less reliable diversifiers, although they still have merit as core portfolio holdings.
The major shifts in US tariff policy announced in April 2025 have also added massive levels of uncertainty
to the investment landscape, potentially upending many previously established performance patterns.
Equity Ballast "A portfolio constructed for long-term resilience will be well served by a high-quality government-bond allocation,
in particular one with US Treasuries and agency mortgages.
The 2022 experience—as well as 2025 thus far—also illustrates the virtue of cash in a balanced portfolio,
particularly for investors who are retired and actively drawing upon their portfolios for living expenses.
While cash might not earn much over inflation over long periods of time, a modest allocation can provide
both safety and liquidity when stocks and bonds fall simultaneously." https://www.morningstar.com/portfolios/diversification-stocks-cash-has-made-good-case-itself
Understanding The US Dollar...The Compound Interview with Kenneth Rogoff The US dollar was not always the dominant world currency. What's next?
Downtown Josh Brown sits down with Kenneth Rogoff, an economist to discuss his new book "Our Dollar, Your Problem". They also dive into the current trade war, the dollars dominance, Bitcoin, an independent Federal Reserve
Don't Look at Stock Markets. Look at the Ports. An article from
The Atlantic, courtesy of yahoo.
Dinky linky. The headline is theirs.
The Port of Los Angeles, the busiest in the Western Hemisphere, processes about 17 percent of everything the United States imports or exports in shipping containers. The adjoining Port of Long Beach accounts for another 14 percent. Over the years, a whole ecosystem has arisen to support the loading and unloading of the cars, clothes, electronic gadgets, and other things that people want. There are workers and warehouses, trucks and loading pads, security structures and rail lines.
Seroka estimated that cargo arrivals would soon be down 35 percent over the same time last year. At the moment, the drop in traffic seems likelier to accelerate than to reverse. The number of cargo ships canceling port calls or entire voyages is on the rise. A number of shipments now under way were instigated before Trump’s so-called Liberation Day tariff announcement, on April 2. According to Forto, a cargo-management and -tracking company, reservations for shipping products must normally be placed two weeks before a cargo vessel launches. The trip from China from California typically takes two or more additional weeks. In other words, the full effects of U.S. tariff policies on maritime traffic may not be apparent for some time.
/snip
Tariffs don’t just reduce the flow of goods coming into the country; they also cause an atrophying of the logistics system that moves products into, out of, and around the United States. “Less cargo volume, less jobs. That’s the rule here,” Mario Cordero, CEO of the Port of Long Beach, said recently, describing how one in nine jobs in the greater Los Angeles region arises directly or indirectly from its ports. “Port complexes are like your baby toe on your foot,” Peter Neffenger, the former commander of the Coast Guard sector that includes Los Angeles and Long Beach, told me. “You don’t think about it until you break it one day and realize, ‘I can’t walk.’”
Like the shipping business into and out of Los Angeles, the nationwide trucking industry is slowing down, because drivers have a lot less cargo to move. Without inventory arriving or en route, small businesses will falter; bigger industries will shrink; shelves will be empty.
Looks like a big, fat, punch in the mouth to commerce. I would expect similar drops in traffic at all the West Coast ports, with similar knock-on effects. Container ships that arrive to LA/LB often work their way up the coast before heading back to Asia from Seattle/Tacoma.
More at the link.
Evaluation and Ranking of Market Forecasters As usual, who is angry...again?
Does Buffett or Bogle use T/A or recommend it?
On this site, Charles Lynn Bolin has posted excellent analysis of what funds to own; does he use T/A?
I have two parts to my analysis. The first is using economic indicators to get a macro view of the investing environment and tilt allocations. I have been influenced by these sources:
https://www.amazon.com/Conquering-Divide-Economic-Indicators-Market/dp/1934354155/ref=sr_1_1?crid=1D2HOC74G5SKA&dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.jggP08ttk6d3e4aBJ3OlJvJo0wsUTozgiBOa-2IN7hQ.xwqt7J8VQlM-LG4E23gXcJy-l5LbJzq37To0UYjkdH0&dib_tag=se&keywords=conquering+the+divide+carr&qid=1746438289&s=digital-text&sprefix=conquering+the+divide+carr,digital-text,124&sr=1-1https://www.amazon.com/Nowcasting-Business-Cycle-Practical-Spotting/dp/1492923850/?_encoding=UTF8&pd_rd_w=KAQE7&content-id=amzn1.sym.bc3ba8d1-5076-4ab7-9ba8-a5c6211e002d&pf_rd_p=bc3ba8d1-5076-4ab7-9ba8-a5c6211e002d&pf_rd_r=144-1791781-1542116&pd_rd_wg=fQact&pd_rd_r=c779539f-9c8a-4441-9aec-796bf000c84d&ref_=aufs_ap_sc_dskhttps://realinvestmentadvice.com/resources/blog/economic-decline-gains-momentum/?utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Economic Decline Gains Momentum&utm_content=Economic Decline Gains Momentum+CID_6dfb12d8548d6d2dc48be03360828430&utm_source=RIA Email Marketing Software&utm_term=SEE THE ENTIRE REPORT HEREThe second part is using data from the Mutual Fund Observer MultiScreen tool. I rate and rank funds based on moving averages, fund flows, short-term performance, risk, valuations, etc. As far as T/A, I tilt the results using Relative Strength Indicator from Seeking Alpha, and Fidelity screens where I use indicator and oscillating technical events. My focus is on intermediate fundamentals, but I create buy and sell signals that may influence timing in the short-term.
Why Our Money Pros Are the Most Bearish in Nearly 30 Years - Barron’s The full transcript of the NBC interview is provided below:
https://nbcnews.com/politics/trump-administration/read-full-transcript-president-donald-trump-interviewed-meet-press-mod-rcna203514The market hates uncertainty as
@larryB posted. Who can make investment plans for their business with these chaos ? The damage already done cannot be readily reverse with the allied countries. Question is when the largest treasury holders start to sell their holdings when things get ugly? Remember, the tariffs pause is only 90 days from the Libration Day, April 2, 202
5 - July 2, 202
5.
As individual investors, we are not buying on the dip. Rather we are reallocating stocks to bonds, oversea stocks, and cash. Don’t think we have reached the bottom.
Warren Buffett Thanks Yogi. A quick
web search seems to consistently turn up Buffett as the originator. Buffett also has about an 8 year advantage in longevity (ange 94) over the more youthful (age 86) Turner.
I’ll go with Buffett until somebody proves me wrong.
