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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    Thanks for the information. He clearly struck-out on THAT score. I'll stick with him, though. DLFNX is a small position. Today, I just added a tiny bit to it, too.
    His funds have done well. Better than his predictions. Then again these markets of recent years have tripped up many experts. I hold DLFNX as well.
    I'm also looking at DLFNX, as well as DoubleLine Total Return.
    FWIW, you can get into the institutional share classes in an IRA at asset levels FAR below that required in a taxable account. IIRC, something like $5k, versus 100k......don't quote me on that
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    OK. I'm not in any munis. Was he correct?
    Crash, nope......he wasn't correct. Nothing even remotely close to a "major collapse."
    Here's how muni bonds have done in each calendar year starting 2010
    We'll look at : Vanguard Intermediate-Term Tax Exempt VWITX
    This is a national muni fund (as opposed to a state specific muni fund)
    You can also see how the index performed and how the category performed
    image
    And what happened in 2013 was not a muni bond market issue, but rather a bond market as a whole issue......interest rates rose. For example, the Barclay's Aggregate bond market index was down roughly 2% that year.
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    From the 2011 article:
    By Jonathan R. Laing
    Updated Feb. 21, 2011
    Gundlach made a couple of very significant predictions in 2011:
    http://online.barrons.com/articles/SB50001424052970204442204576144662301971254?tesla=y
    Celebrated bond-fund manager Jeffrey Gundlach has a healthy -- some might say overdeveloped -- ego.
    "Look, I have a gift, or some would say a curse, of being able to have stunning insight into the reality of markets and the economy," Gundlach says.........But whether it's bond selection or asset allocation, we can do it better than just about anybody around."
    "Though I rarely go public with specifics on stocks, I think the Standard & Poor's 500, which is now over 1300, will hit 500 in the next couple of years," he says.

    "He foresees a major collapse in the municipal-bond market, beyond the declines to date, given the parlous condition of both state and local government finances. He is preparing, he says, by having established a joint venture with the Chicago financial firm RiverNorth. Among other things, it expects to scoop up closed-end municipal-bond funds in the next year or so when the predicted apocalypse arrives, driving fund prices down, he says, to as little as 40% of net asset value. "
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King

    Am I missing something here? You linked a four year old article.

    Oh, goodness, you're right. Sorry about that. I just went to look for the one I MEANT to link here. Sonsofbitches have got it blocked, unless you subscribe. Dated 03 January, 2015.
    No problem. I do respect the opinions of Gundlach and overlay it with positive price action. Albeit, I can't recall him ever being overly enthusiastic for junk corporates during its run since the December 2008 bottom. Must not be his bailiwick
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King

    Am I missing something here? You linked a four year old article.
    Oh, goodness, you're right. Sorry about that. I just went to look for the one I MEANT to link here. Sonsofbitches have got it blocked, unless you subscribe. Dated 03 January, 2015.
  • Art Cashin: " Market ReactsTto Iran, Greece"
    All pretty predictable. Did anyone really think we'd walk away from the talks without some kind of agreement after going right down to the wire (plus agreeing to a couple time extensions)?
    No knowledge of the agreement or opinion whether it's good or bad. Of dubious importance from an investing point of view. Stock market reacted with a big yawn - probably the correct reaction. Should prospects of passage in the Senate improve in the weeks ahead ... that's probably positive for the markets - overvalued though they are. Media was all over the 3% slide in crude. Seem to have forgotten about yesterday's near 5% rise.
    Not sure what Ted sees in Art Cashin.
  • Russell 2500 Construction
    One thing that gets tricky is that M*'s "average" market cap is a geometric average, not an arithmetic average, but I agree with your thought. The market cap of the largest positions in VSCIX is above the market cap of the smallest stocks in the S&P 500. The thing I'm having trouble with is that I can't find the biggest positions in VIMAX in the S&P 500. I only checked a couple, but I would have expected to find most of the top positions in the S&P 500 based on market cap. Based on the market cap, I would have expected to find a few of the top positions in VSCIX in the S&P 500 also but I didn't find that either. Maybe my sample of a couple wasn't big enough...
    I also think you'll find that most of the smallest companies in the Russell 2500 are not included in VSCIX so if that's important to you then you might need to find a fund that addresses those stocks. VSCIX is about 1500 stocks and I suspect a decent portion of what's missing from the 2500 are the smallest ones based on the criteria CRSP uses for the index that VSCIX follows.
  • U.S. Money Fund Assets Post Biggest Weekly Fall Since 2013
    FYI: U .S. money market fund assets fell $44.36 billion to $2.676 trillion in the week ended March 31 for its largest single-week increase since the second week of October 2013, the Money Fund Report said on Wednesday.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.reuters.com/article/2015/04/01/us-funds-imoneynet-idUSKBN0MS59E20150401
    Correction;
    QUARTER ENDS WITH U.S. MMF OUTFLOWS TOPPING $44 BILLION
    U.S. money-market funds ended the first quarter with a weekly asset decline of $44.36 billion as of March 31, according to Money Fund Report®, a service of iMoneyNet in Westborough, Mass. The drop erased last week’s $32.37 billion increase and marked the largest one-week exodus of total fund assets since Oct. 15, 2013.
    Total fund assets settled at $2.676 trillion for the week. Taxable money fund assets fell $42.55 billion to $2.418 trillion. Prime Institutional fund assets were down by $32.75 billion. Government Institutional fund assets slipped $8.72 billion while Taxable Retail fund assets declined $1.09 billion.
    Tax-Free fund assets decreased $1.81 billion, lowering their total to $257.66 billion.
    The iMoneyNet Money Fund Average™ 7-Day Simple Yield for All Taxable money-market funds was 0.02 percent for a 10th consecutive week. The iMoneyNet Money Fund Average™ 7-Day Simple Yield for All Tax-Free and Municipal money-market funds remained at 0.01 percent for a 100th straight week.
    There were 991 taxable and 396 tax-free and municipal money-market funds reporting this week. iMoneyNet has tracked taxable MMFs since 1975, tax-free funds since 1981, and non-U.S. money funds since 1999.
    Note to Media Members: To receive this weekly data summary by e-mail, send request to [email protected].
    Posted:4/1/2015 3:06:00 PM
    Click here for more iMoneyNet NEWS EXCLUSIVES
  • All Hail Jeffrey Gundlach, The New Bond King
    Am I missing something here? You linked a four year old article.
  • Time to Bail out of Perkins Midcap Value (JMCVX)
    The Lead Manager Jeff Kautz Is Resigning Effective 4/5/15
  • Steven Goldberg: The Only 5 Index Funds You Need To Own
    FYI: you’re not an investing hobbyist and you don’t employ an adviser, you simply have no reason not to invest in index funds—funds that track broad market indexes rather than try to beat them.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.kiplinger.com/printstory.php?pid=13439
  • M* 5 Go-Anywhere Bond Funds That Have Shown Resilience
    FYI: While hardly low-risk, these multisector- and non-traditional-bond funds have held up well in recent stress tests.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=691227
  • The Best Mutual Funds Of Q1 2015
    FYI: In review of the best mutual funds of Q1 2015, we are not looking to chase after the winners, but rather to gain insights into where the money is flowing, which can then provide clues about investor sentiment and potential investment themes for upcoming quarters.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://investorplace.com/2015/04/best-mutual-funds-q1-2015-ryjsx-fbiox-pedix/print
  • Russell 2500 Construction
    Based on what I read on M*'s fund analysis, VIMAX targets the 70-85% range of market capitalization and VSCIX targets the 85-98% range of market capitalization. When I read about the index they replicate, that means they should each be covering roughly the same total portion (a bit more for VIMAX) of US market capitalization, so if you want a market cap weighted approach you would allocate roughly equal amounts.
  • Russell 2500 Construction
    The rough market cap of the holdings in VSCIX is about $3.6 trillion while VIMAX is about 3.9, so a 50/50 split would be pretty close to market weighing the holdings across the two funds.
  • Interesting movement on ACDJX.
    >>>Personally, I share a lot of what I do on this board and when I do, I give reasoning. I do own GILD and other healthcare stocks and a few differerent funds. As for GILD in particular, you have a company that had $24.9B in revenue in 2014, a 127% increase over 2013. Starts a dividend soon, $15B buyback, has a significant pipeline and yet, is trading at a 13 p/e. I think the current valuation is cheap and discounts a lot of the pipeline. It is likely in part to the idea of competition and pricing for their HEP-C treatments coming down, but Abbvie's competing Viekira Pak has been disappointing in terms of numbers and in terms of pricing coming down (also partly due to controversy over prices, although the question becomes how much would a liver transplant be), I think that's largely been discounted already. <<<<
    Well, I don't see it but then large cap stocks aren't my thing. I see analysts predicting revenues slowing to 13.10% in 2015 and then 3.80% in 2016. Hopefully my hesitation will act as contrary indicator and propel GILD out of its funk since last summer.
    Edit: I assume these large cap biotechs with projected slowdowns in their revenue growth can make strategic acquisitions to remedy that?
  • Commodity Funds Continue To Struggle
    @Ted, You missed my tongue in cheek comment.
    He wants to renegotiate the lease terms ,Ted !!
    More Ag/Farm
    Jf Drought worsens in West..farmers may face restrictions
    California governor orders mandatory water restrictions
    BY FENIT NIRAPPIL ASSOCIATED PRESS
    04/01/2015 5:32 PM 04/01/2015 5:32 PM
    Wednesday's order has fewer provisions addressing the state's biggest user of water: agriculture.
    There is no water reduction target for farmers, who have let thousands of acres go fallow as the state and federal government slashed water deliveries from reservoirs. Instead, the order requires many agricultural water suppliers to submit detailed drought management plans that include how much water they have and what they're doing to scale back.
    After the previous drought, state officials acknowledge that some suppliers did not submit similar required plans in 2009. Mark Cowin, director of the Department of Water Resources, said the state will provide money to make sure the plans are written and may penalize those who do not comply.
    The state is not aiming to go after water-guzzling crops such as almonds and rice the same way Brown has condemned lawns.
    "We're not at the point yet where we are going to declare the irrigation of any particular crop 'waste and unreasonable use,'" Cowin said.
    Read more here: http://www.miamiherald.com/news/nation-world/article17079074.html#storylink=cpy
    Warning: This is a Seeking Alpha Article
    Don't Waste Water, But Rather Invest In It
    by David Krejca, AlphaReturns.IO Mar. 30, 2015
    "On the occasion of the World Water Day, the United Nations released its annual World Water Development Report. This year titled "Water for a Sustainable World," the report suggests that the world water supply will fall short by at least 40 percent within the next 15 years if world leaders do not rethink their water policies..Unlike oil, natural gas, or any other commodity, investors can't use futures contracts to directly bet on water prices. However, there are two alternatives for how to capitalize on the increasing scarcity of fresh and potable water. The first is to invest in utilities or companies that desalinate, recycle, conserve, purify and distribute clean water, as well as those that make equipment and deliver new technologies to the water industry. The second is to purchase securities of some mutual fund or one of the four water E T Fs
    All the E T Fs are closely correlated to each other and are slightly behind the S&P 500 index. Nevertheless, several differences can be found. The Guggenheim S&P Global Water Index E T F (CGW) and the PowerShares Global Water Portfolio E T F (PIO) are internationally diversified, while the First Trust ISE Water Index E T F (FIW) and the PowerShares Water Resources Portfolio E T F (PHO) are solely focused on the U.S. market. The following table provides a good summary of the essential differences among them..
    http://seekingalpha.com/article/3038716-dont-waste-water-but-rather-invest-in-it
    Or AWTAX
    CFWAX