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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation

    I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.

    In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
    I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
    Hi STB65: I've listened to several interviews of Robert Shiller, 'co-inventor' of the CAPE, this year. He says it doesn't work for market timing. Also, he says it has been above 20 for the past 20 years. Shiller's website has the CAPE for every month from current to the distant past. I'm looking at the bear market from 2000-2002. At no time did the CAPE get below 20, never came close to its long term historical average. Even in the Oct 2007-March 2009 mega bear, the CAPE was above 20 until October 2008, and was back above 20 by the end of 2009. Waiting for the CAPE to tell you when to buy could be a very tough wait.
    What did you mean by: "In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly"?
    I'm seeing it as a No Transaction Fee fund.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    @STB65, that was one thing that stood out when I researched these kind of funds. The assumption is when we do get the correction or worse all funds will drop but the recovery of these short term bond funds tends to be much faster than equities for the most part. Since these are relatively new I could only use the 2000 bear market as a example. Another view is that these do not go down as much as stock funds. If the SP drops 20% and the bond funds go down 10% then that is something. Of course cash would worker better but I'm not a timer or a predictor of actual tops and bottoms.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    After listening to the interview, I considered reducing my FAGIX and SPHIX holdings since they represented the majority of my high yield bond funds (my 403b is in Fido); but I checked the graph at M*, where they regained their return slope in about a year after 2008, so I am really conflicted. Therefore, I agree with AndyJ as to from what?
    I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.
    RSIVX, RPHYX seemed to have flattened out or declined, but FSAHX may have shown a gasp of life. My hopes that I could park my "cash" in short term bond funds are now muted (especially since I have 40 X as much in the first 2 and the latter was positive on
    Fri, but it's only one day.)
    In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
    I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
  • August, QTD, And YTD Asset Class Performance
    I don't have a favorite. M* seems the more reliable as far as their quotes go. A lot of sites don't even have YTD stats. They default to one year. Also depending on the site they will choose a different symbol for the SP index whether that makes much difference or not.
    @JohnChisum, What I like about M* in this case is that they tell you the actual index total return, as well as any fund symbol you want. SPY is not really the index, it's an S&P 500 index fund, etf version. There's tons of S&P 500 index funds and a few S&P 500 exchange traded funds, like SPY, IVV and VOO. They tend to have a bit of a tracking error, and also expenses that reduce their return. Sometimes the tracking error can make an index fund perform better than the index for a given time frame. The best index funds and most experienced indexers don't have much of a tracking error at all.
    M* gives you the total return of the index itself, as well as any index fund you put in.
    Below, SPY is up 9.68 YTD, as an S&P 500 exchange traded index fund.
    The index itself is up 9.89% YTD
    One reason SPY almost always trails the index is the way it is structured. It can't reinvest dividends the way a more typical S&P 500 index fund can, due to its structure as a unit investment trust.
    image
    the Bespoke data was way off the mark for all 3 index exchange traded funds that they provided data for, which is hard to understand. Makes me not have confidence in their data. I was just checking it on a whim, and was surprised what I found.
  • August, QTD, And YTD Asset Class Performance
    http://www.bloomberg.com/quote/SPY:US
    PERFORMANCE FOR SPY
    1-Month +3.95% 1-Year +25.06%
    3-Month +4.67% 3-Year +20.49%
    Year To Date +9.68% 5-Year +16.75%
    Expense Ratio 0.09
  • August, QTD, And YTD Asset Class Performance
    FYI: The month of August is now behind us and September trading begins on Tuesday following Monday's Labor Day holiday. Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes in August, quarter-to-date and year-to-date using our key ETF matrix. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/30/august-qtd-and-ytd-asset-class-performance.html?printerFriendly=true
    MFOers, it does not look to me like their data is accurate. And they show the date of their data, 8/30/2014
    image
    Below is a comparison of the YTD performance figures from Bespoke versus Morningstar. I trust the M* data
    image
  • Kopernik Global All-Cap
    @VintageFreak, here's a link to the M* article that gives a good amount of detail about David Iben. After reading the M* article I went to his website to find out more about the fund and enjoyed the commentary that I linked. I find most fund manager commentaries disappointing because they tend to tell you what made money and what lost money, but they don't often tell you what they actually think about the businesses they invest in and even less about how their view of the big picture impacts their investments. In this case I was pleased to find a commentary that told me far more about how Iben thinks and invests than the fact that his positions in Russia are detracting from his performance this year.
    news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=663563
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    Interestingly, the main recommendation Kathleen Gaffney gave to the listeners is to rise cash.
    She did say cash is a great 'investment' at this time.
    I think this was in answer to Consuelo Mack asking her: 'What is the one recommendation you have for all now'?
    What do MFOers think about raising some cash now?
    Gaffney said she is holding 20% cash now, as opposed to her normal level of 5%.
    She says we will be able to buy things at a lower price after a price correction, so raise some cash
  • How ETFs Define 'Quality"
    FYI: (Click On Article Title At Top Of Google Search)
    Quality stock investing" is the latest marketing meme in ETFs. But for some investors, it's a joke: How do you define "quality"? "Quality is the stuff I own, and crap is the stuff I don't own," quips Doug Sandler who, as co-manager of the RiverFront Moderate Growth & Income fund (ticker: RMIAX), owns one of the 18 quality ETFs, most of which have launched in the past three years. "When you hear managers say 'it was a low-quality rally,' it means all the stuff they didn't own worked. It's a nebulous term."
    Regards,
    Ted
    https://www.google.com/search?newwindow=1&q=how+ETFs+Define+"Quality"&oq=how+ETFs+Define+"Quality"&gs_l=serp.3...89498.110978.0.111518.45.38.0.1.1.2.106.2129.37j1.38.0....0...1c.1.52.serp..22.23.1296.vdpe1TOwRU8
  • August, QTD, And YTD Asset Class Performance
    FYI: The month of August is now behind us and September trading begins on Tuesday following Monday's Labor Day holiday. Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes in August, quarter-to-date and year-to-date using our key ETF matrix. The left hand side of the matrix features mostly US equity related ETFs, while the right side contains country, commodity and fixed income ETFs.
    As you can see, August was a big month for US stocks, with most areas gaining 3-5%. It wasn't so great for foreign markets, however, with a lot of red on the board. Commodities got hit in August as well, leaving them down big for the quarter. Fixed income put in yet another month of gains.
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/30/august-qtd-and-ytd-asset-class-performance.html?printerFriendly=true
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation

    Like many here, I'm not a market timer but do believe, on a short-intermediate term basis, there may not be a lot of room for the markets to run. So, contrary to some advice given here, I'm moving slowly and cautiously into alternatives, primarily long/short and managed futures.
    I don't see the Yacktman funds as being shelters for when the market turns south.
    FPACX might, as it is only 52% equities right now.
    I own the Litman Gregory Master Alternative Strategies fund, for the reason you mentioned.
    I've never been able to understand much about managed futures funds. I used to track (on a watch list) a fund run by an MIT economics guy, Andrew Lo, but the fund never did anything.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    Hi Bee, always check the A shares ... some brokerages have deals with the fund companies to waive the loads on those. Fidelity for example has EVBAX load-waived & NTF, minimum investment of $2.5k.
    I bought EVBAX load waived through Fidelity early this year and it's done great. I think it's a great option as an aggressive multi sector fund.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    Bee, according to a test trade I just made in my Fidelity retirement account, EVBIX is available for a $500 minimum with a $49.95 initial transaction fee.
    Kevin
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    Look at what Eaton Vance might of had to pay Ms. Gaffney to get her away from Loomis Sayles. Talent like her's is very costly and is, no doubt, passed on its fund investors. And, since I wanted to own a fund managed by Ms. Gaffney ... Well, I steped up and was willing to pay the associated cost. It certaintly beats 2&20.
    I am sure there are others, like yourself rjb112, that might feel different.
    Old_Skeet
    @Old_Skeet , I understand your viewpoint, respect it, and I'm not necessarily opposed to investing in that fund. I could very well find myself one day investing in it, even some day soon, even though I don't like the expense ratio. You're right, it beats 2/20, and I'm sure she's better than 99% of hedge funds that are charging 2/20.
    My bigger issue with investing in it is finding it's role in my portfolio.
    It has 18.6% stocks, unusual for a bond fund. 31% below investment grade bonds. An additional 2.46% not rated. 50% BBB bonds. So we are not talking about a portfolio of high quality bonds. Which may be just fine, if I can come up with a role for this fund in my portfolio. A good portion of the fund will be somewhat correlated to the stock market. Below investment grade bonds tend to be correlated to the stock market.
    A person could almost buy a balanced fund and perhaps get a similar risk profile, depending on how conservative the balanced fund is.
    One thing is certain: I do like Dan Fuss, Kathleen Gaffney, and other talented money managers!
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    I noticed my brokerage offers a no load version of her fund, EVBIX, but the minimum is $250K. Can I purchase this fund no load and maybe even NTF somewhere...hopefully with lower minimums?
    @bee: Available at both Schwab and Fidelity, no load, no transaction fee
    image
    I don't like the expense ratio: 1.27% , currently lowered to 0.95%
    These expense waivers bother me.
    If they wanted the expense ratio to be 0.95%, they wouldn't have made it 1.27%
    When the expense waiver expires.....well, eventually it is planned to be 1.27%
    In today's low interest rate world, 1.27% is way too high for a bond fund, IMHO
  • Any Comments on Raymond James?
    My mom had RJF for over 400k of her IRA. Honestly, the broker/dearler/advisor never had a idea that I could not have come up with on my own. He also charged at least 1.25% per annum. That on top of the ER for the funds. They did have some load waived MFs that are useful like the LW version of CAIBX. I moved her out to Trowe Price(2013) and have not been sorry. When she lost 50k in a private bank stock that his office offered (he was also on the bank's board) I never heard from him again. He sluffed her off to one of his associates. Oh by the was the FDIC is suing the board to recover 8-9million in fees, trips, salary for the board members. Not typical for a RJ advisor but I still have a bad taste in my mouth.
    Anybody offering a VA is not to be trusted.
  • WealthTrack: Q&A With Kathleen Gaffney, Manager, Eaton Vance Bond Fund: Video Presentation
    Hi Bee, always check the A shares ... some brokerages have deals with the fund companies to waive the loads on those. Fidelity for example has EVBAX load-waived & NTF, minimum investment of $2.5k.
  • Bulls Pour Funds Into Russian ETF
    From FPA Crescent Fund Letter to Shareholders,July 25 2014
    Russia
    Early in the year, we began to focus on Russian companies as many global businesses seemed reasonably
    priced. We ultimately settled on a commodity basket that we could buy if and/or when its stock market sold off.
    We chose commodity companies because their dollarized revenue stream limited exposure to the ruble, which is
    expensive to hedge. Furthermore, these businesses account for 25% of Russia’s GDP and 50% of the country’s
    governmental revenue so it’s clear they are of critical importance to the state. We also believed that there was some
    ability to mitigate U.S. sanctions as the underlying asset is globally traded.
    When Russia “annexed” Crimea, we had our opportunity. The companies in our basket traded at huge
    discounts to their global peers and, despite low-payout ratios, had dividend yields that were much higher than their
    P/Es. The average P/E of the basket at purchase was less than 4x current year consensus estimates while the
    average current dividend yield was greater than 5%. We appreciate the risk of investing in a country with a
    complex, authoritarian political system and that our upside could potentially be taken by the government, but we 8
    also believe that the prices at which we purchased these securities were sufficiently discounted to offer an
    asymmetric risk/reward that was skewed in our favor.
    http://www.fpafunds.com/docs/quarterly-commentaries-crescent-fund/2014-q2-crescentBD9EEAFAF16B.pdf?sfvrsn=4