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Hi STB65: I've listened to several interviews of Robert Shiller, 'co-inventor' of the CAPE, this year. He says it doesn't work for market timing. Also, he says it has been above 20 for the past 20 years. Shiller's website has the CAPE for every month from current to the distant past. I'm looking at the bear market from 2000-2002. At no time did the CAPE get below 20, never came close to its long term historical average. Even in the Oct 2007-March 2009 mega bear, the CAPE was above 20 until October 2008, and was back above 20 by the end of 2009. Waiting for the CAPE to tell you when to buy could be a very tough wait.
I think I believe in gross market timing (CAPE says the next 10 years will be low return if one buys the broad market at current levels), so it looks like I should let my monthly additions molder in cash.
In my IRA at TDA, EVBAX was relatively costly, as mentioned above, but there were no additional charges. This was a minimum investment to keep me attentive.
I think (hope) there is too much money waiting for an entry point for stocks to drop 30 -60%, and Gaffney's comment about the portion of Treasury debt that the Fed is buying suggests there is a high floor for the short term. I think I'll start adding money at the 10% drop and take the additional hit, if it occurs, and reassess if there is a 10 - 15% gain above the 10% drop. I don't think 2008 was a once in a lifetime event, but I don't think it was a once in a decade event.
@JohnChisum, What I like about M* in this case is that they tell you the actual index total return, as well as any fund symbol you want. SPY is not really the index, it's an S&P 500 index fund, etf version. There's tons of S&P 500 index funds and a few S&P 500 exchange traded funds, like SPY, IVV and VOO. They tend to have a bit of a tracking error, and also expenses that reduce their return. Sometimes the tracking error can make an index fund perform better than the index for a given time frame. The best index funds and most experienced indexers don't have much of a tracking error at all.I don't have a favorite. M* seems the more reliable as far as their quotes go. A lot of sites don't even have YTD stats. They default to one year. Also depending on the site they will choose a different symbol for the SP index whether that makes much difference or not.
MFOers, it does not look to me like their data is accurate. And they show the date of their data, 8/30/2014FYI: The month of August is now behind us and September trading begins on Tuesday following Monday's Labor Day holiday. Below is a look at the performance of various asset classes in August, quarter-to-date and year-to-date using our key ETF matrix. http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/8/30/august-qtd-and-ytd-asset-class-performance.html?printerFriendly=true
She did say cash is a great 'investment' at this time.Interestingly, the main recommendation Kathleen Gaffney gave to the listeners is to rise cash.
I don't see the Yacktman funds as being shelters for when the market turns south.
Like many here, I'm not a market timer but do believe, on a short-intermediate term basis, there may not be a lot of room for the markets to run. So, contrary to some advice given here, I'm moving slowly and cautiously into alternatives, primarily long/short and managed futures.
I bought EVBAX load waived through Fidelity early this year and it's done great. I think it's a great option as an aggressive multi sector fund.Hi Bee, always check the A shares ... some brokerages have deals with the fund companies to waive the loads on those. Fidelity for example has EVBAX load-waived & NTF, minimum investment of $2.5k.
@Old_Skeet , I understand your viewpoint, respect it, and I'm not necessarily opposed to investing in that fund. I could very well find myself one day investing in it, even some day soon, even though I don't like the expense ratio. You're right, it beats 2/20, and I'm sure she's better than 99% of hedge funds that are charging 2/20.Look at what Eaton Vance might of had to pay Ms. Gaffney to get her away from Loomis Sayles. Talent like her's is very costly and is, no doubt, passed on its fund investors. And, since I wanted to own a fund managed by Ms. Gaffney ... Well, I steped up and was willing to pay the associated cost. It certaintly beats 2&20.
I am sure there are others, like yourself rjb112, that might feel different.
Old_Skeet
@bee: Available at both Schwab and Fidelity, no load, no transaction feeI noticed my brokerage offers a no load version of her fund, EVBIX, but the minimum is $250K. Can I purchase this fund no load and maybe even NTF somewhere...hopefully with lower minimums?
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