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Still need substantially sized cajones to make the call ANY mainstream asset class is going to on average yield negative returns for 7 years. I don't think even Hussman is saying that, and he is already in the dog house for the rest of this century!
Keep in mind, that's real-return, so they are assuming something like 2.5% inflation. Which means something around -1.5 to -2% a year going forward.
Not completely without reasoning: Animal Liberation by Peter Singer, perhaps the world's best known living philosopher, and a leading voice of the ethical school of Consequentialism. Aside from being a proponent of massive wealth redistribution of the sort that probably would make some heads here explode, the bastard almost single-handedly made me give up my graduate work in ethics.Well Accipiter, we need to sensitize you to be more diverse in your thinking. Have you heard of Speciesism?
"The term is mostly used by animal rights advocates, who argue that speciesism is a prejudice similar to racism or se_ism, in that the treatment of individuals is predicated on group membership and morally irrelevant physical differences."
Speciesism revealed
All species have the right to vote, own property, not be the food of any other species, have copyright protection, the right to consent to marriage (both intra and inter-species) and take advantage legal tax loopholes. Remember they are never our pets or owned by us. It's right there in the 14th amendment. Join our movement Accipiter.
peta.org/
I'm going to go eat a vegan burger.
Forgot to add M*'s wide-moat index, MOAT.
Yeah, MOAT sounds interesting to me. Combination of a wide moat plus attractively priced. Sounds like a winning combination. And actively managed by the Morningstar stock analyst team.
I've seen Swedroe make the point that it shouldn't matter towards cap gains if you take dividends out or not and sort of poo poo DRIPing. Basically telling investors to create their own dividends by selling a %age of gains. But the thought is supposed to be that dividends and low payout ratios (and to some extent buybacks) impose some restraint on corporate misbehavior, and that only high quality firms can afford to continually restrain themselves by returning profits. You've probably seen the same things I have there. Some valuations seem stretched, but these are maybe companies people are willing to pay up a little for.thanks mrdarcey. I'll have to take a look at those. I believe there have been some articles this year, possibly one by Larry Swedroe, saying that dividends were getting quite popular and therefore expensive.....so that the P/E ratios on some of the dividend exchange traded funds was too high. Swedroe in particular was advising total return investing and not dividend investing for that as well as other reasons. I'd have to look for those articles.
Keep in mind, that's real-return, so they are assuming something like 2.5% inflation. Which means something around -1.5 to -2% a year going forward.Negative 4.4 returns for small caps for 7 years in a row. Takes some cajones to make that call. Setting a reminder for 2021.
@LLJB, looks good.@rjb112
PV*(1+r)^n=FV, so I used .02 for r, 65 for n and I rounded the future value from the article to $4.2 million. When I solved for the present value it came out to $1.159 million which I rounded to $1.2 million just to be generous.
Yeah, that's quite a forecast. It would be much easier to gloss over that forecast if it was made by Harry Dent, Dr. Doom (Marc Faber) or Peter Schiff.Negative 4.4 returns for small caps for 7 years in a row. Takes some cajones to make that call. Setting a reminder for 2021.
I'm sure Spock didn't invent that formula but when I saw that Star Trek episode I didn't believe it so I took out paper and pencil. Sure enough on day 27 one hits one million dollars.I always enjoyed Spock's idea of getting rich. Take a penny and double it each day. In less than a month you will have $1 million.
Very nice JohnChisum
From my internet search, looks like if you start with a penny and double it every day, after 30 days you end up with $5,368.709
LLJB, appreciate if you will go over the math that you did for your calculation......the step by step calculation you performed, with inputs and output. Thanks!....but I thought we were talking about what we as parents or grandparents can do for Charlotte by contributing $1 each day for 18 years. If I did the math right, if we use the Fed's target rate of 2% inflation, then her $4.2 million at age 65 is worth a little less than $1.2 million in today's terms. Its still not an insignificant sum, but inflation can't simply be dismissed because Charlotte will add to her investments.
Very nice JohnChisumI always enjoyed Spock's idea of getting rich. Take a penny and double it each day. In less than a month you will have $1 million.
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