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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Paul Merriman: Top Fund's Shareholders Missed The Party: CGM Focus Fund
    You made a great move in moving it all to CGMFX in 1997.
    Yeah, he is famously nerdy and studious. Probably one of the most studious managers out there. Fully committed to investing. He has few other interests in life, and rarely takes a vacation. Probably works very long hours. IIRC, I think his wife may also be a mutual fund manager, at least that's what I read several years ago.
    I remember the days when his CGMRX trounced everything in sight. No other real estate fund could even come close. I notice from his calendar year performances there too, that he is very often either in the top 10% or bottom 10%. Amazing. Somebody should undertake a serious study of his investing methodology. Unfortunately, he doesn't say enough in his annual and semiannual reports to really divulge.
    Even now, he has a huge short position in Treasuries in CGMFX. Quite an investor.
    image
  • 401(k) Mutual Fund Investors Pay Less in Fees
    FYI: The average 401(k) stock fund investor was charged 0.58% of assets to cover expenses at year-end 2013 vs. the industry retail average expense ratio of 0.74%, said a report by Investment Company Institute
    Regards,
    Ted
    http://license.icopyright.net/user/viewFreeUse.act?fuid=MTgzMTc1Mjc=
  • Paul Merriman: Top Fund's Shareholders Missed The Party: CGM Focus Fund
    More errors on my part: but what happened was in spring of 1992 I put 5k in CGM Mutual Fund, averted my eyes, and just after Labor Day 1997 moved it all (it had more than doubled) to CGMFX, averting my eyes further until early spring 2011, when fearing downsizing and earlier-than-desired retirement, I rolled half of it over into something more prudent (of course anything would be more prudent) but left half w Heebner, except moved into CGMRX, which, having still averted my eyes, I finally bailed out of spring of last year. So the total rollover came to >65k, not 165k, my bad. From 5k, with no additions. My point naturally was that the only way to have even been able to have exposure to some lucky timing with the guy in all of those ~21y, achieving >3.5 doublings, was almost never to watch. He's a one-man shop, famously nerdy and studious. Amazingly (to me), he lives like a block or three from Tillinghast. And now yet again he is pronounced fallen.
  • High Yield Spreads Widen: Should You Be Worried ?
    This is a good link to monitor the spread of high yield bonds. Currently the spread is 375 basis points, up from 330 basis points just a few months ago.
    I didn't know about that specific spread calculation you linked, Mozart, but here's another one from FRED, based on the 'BAML US HY Master II'.
    I've followed the Master II calculation of the spread for a while, and 3.80, which as of Monday was the widest spread during this recent uptick in rates, has been a significant level all year: first as a floor, then as a ceiling, and now once again a ceiling, for a couple of days at least. Setting the time period on the chart to 1y is the best way to see the relationship.
  • Paul Merriman: Top Fund's Shareholders Missed The Party: CGM Focus Fund
    davidmoran, M* lists the 15-year return of CGMFX as 14.52%. The fund inception date was Sept. 3, 1997. You "bailed a couple years ago", so if you got in at inception, you were in very roughly 15 years. An initial investment of $5,000 compounds to $38,211 over 15 years at a 14.52% return, with all distributions reinvested.
    Anyone who got into this fund in time for the 2000 and 2001 performance hit a grand slam, and I'm sure you were one of them.
    I think his 2000 and 2001 performance will go down in investing history as truly without equal. Same goes for his 2007 performance.
    Perhaps just as surprising is how poorly he did in 2008, 2009 and 2011.
    In 2011, he underperformed the market by over 28 percentage points!
    In 2009 he underperformed the market by over 16 percentage points.
    What a party in 2007, but then the hangover in 2008 and 2009.
    image
  • High Yield Spreads Widen: Should You Be Worried ?
    This is a good link to monitor the spread of high yield bonds. Currently the spread is 375 basis points, up from 330 basis points just a few months ago. But the Treasury yields have dropped, so the high yield prices have barely dropped in that time period.
    http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/BAMLH0A2HYB
  • High Yield Spreads Widen: Should You Be Worried ?
    In the past year-plus, Fidelity has waived loads on lots of A shares. Other brokerages apparently do this also - it's a matter of negotiation between the supermarket and fund management. Load-waived shares are designated with the suffix .lw added onto the end of the ticker. They still cost more than typical I shares, but don't require a big minimum buy.
    That Eaton Vance fund looks interesting ... kind of HY light, with ~ 70% investment grade, 15% non-investment grade, and 15% unrated, with pretty low turnover at 30%. Its A shares are also lw & ntf at Fidelity.
  • Thoughts on "Raising Cash" ... and, also "Trimming the Dead Wood?"
    "Timing in and out, trying to own that "perfect" fund and collecting hot funds just doesn't make sense to me anymore. It can be fun as a hobby, but it can be detrimental on returns. Play on the fringe, invest the bulk with a longer term vision. "
    Well said and that's really it. Again, I'm not one of those people who says that their way is the only way - farthest thing from it. People who use technical indicators and all of the other factors - all that stuff fascinates me. 5+ years ago, I moved in and out of things constantly and I really feel that it was detrimental on returns. Gradually I did that less and less.
    The thing is, less micromanaging doesn't mean I'm not enjoying investing. If anything, having a "best ideas"/themes portfolio and having all but a couple of things pay a dividend has actually made the entire effort less stressful and decisions less emotional and less focused on the day-to-day. I can just own a (to use examples) Canadian National Railway or Conocophillips and that's it. Collect the dividend. Love researching ideas, have ideas in mind if I want to put more money in the market. Otherwise, best ideas that pay a dividend and just sit on them.
    I think you have a portion that can be still for "play", but I dunno, I don't even find myself that interested in that anymore. I was going to invest in a little Canadian pot stock the other day and instead went with Marine Harvest (MHG), which has a variable dividend but a very generous dividend policy and is one of the world's largest seafood companies.
    GAINX is really appealing and probably what I'll continue to move the rest of the money from PQIDX to.
    As for TOLLX mentioned above, that's a great infrastructure mutual fund. I own INF, which I think is a good CEF play on it and I just keep reinvesting that monthly div. There's also Brookfield Infrastructure (BIP), which is a pure play on infrastructure but results in a K-1 at tax time.
  • Is CAMAX shorting a leverage ETF (SSO)?
    BEE -
    Help me understand..
    What do the numbers for Pro Shares ie - -5.38 100,000 100,000 - - -
    represent in your post?
    Or where can I find your reference??
    Thanks
    Gary
    Not Bee, but you can find his reference on Morningstar.com in the portfolio section, "holdings". The -5.38% refers to the portfolio weighting of that security, and then # of shares and # of share change
    See below:
    image
  • Is CAMAX shorting a leverage ETF (SSO)?
    BEE -
    Help me understand..
    What do the numbers for Pro Shares ie - -5.38 100,000 100,000 - - -
    represent in your post?
    Or where can I find your reference??
    Thanks
    Gary
  • High Yield Spreads Widen: Should You Be Worried ?
    @Dex
    ??? NHMAX
    Fido is not in charge of whether a fund from another vendor is frontloaded; as these "A" shares from Nuveen.
    This fund in particular is "load wavied".
    Fido info
  • Finally: New SEC rules for money-market funds
    The following is an Associated Press news release quoted from the Washington Post.
    (It is the second article down on the page.)
    New SEC rules for money-market funds
    "Regulators voted by a narrow margin to end a longtime staple of the investment industry — the fixed $1 share price for ­money-market mutual funds — at least for some money funds used by big investors.
    The idea is to minimize the risk of a mass withdrawal from the funds during a financial panic.
    The Securities and Exchange Commission also is letting all money funds block withdrawals when their assets fall below certain levels or impose fees for withdrawals.
    The rules were adopted Wednesday by a 3-to-2 vote, culminating several years of regulatory haggling and false starts. They were opposed by one Democratic and one Republican commissioner.
    The floating-price requirement applies only to prime institutional funds, which are considered riskier. They represent about a third of money-market funds, according to the SEC.
    A run on a money-market fund during the financial crisis showed how risky the funds could be. The Lehman Brothers collapse in fall 2008 triggered the failure of the Reserve Primary Fund, one of the biggest money-market funds, which held Lehman debt. The Reserve Primary Fund lost so much money that it “broke the buck,” as its value fell to 97 cents a share."
    — Associated Press
  • Paul Merriman: Top Fund's Shareholders Missed The Party: CGM Focus Fund
    Avert your eyes. That's how (the only way) I turned $5k in this fund into $165k over the decades. And I bailed a couple years ago only cuz I was (forcibly) entering retirement.
    Congratulations. Also, you had to have added new monies to that original $5k, not just reinvested distributions, to turn $5k into $165k
  • Some questions regarding commodity funds (incl. ARCIX, GCC and USCI)

    Edit Just looked at a chart of GCC back to 2008. Again, pretty much says it all.
    image
  • High Yield Spreads Widen: Should You Be Worried ?
    Junkster,
    I was looking at the yields
    NHMAX 5.88% - I got some when Fidelity wasn't charging a front end load
    HYD is pretty good at 5.53%
    EIHYX at 5.13%
    HYMB at 4.69%
    Believe me, I'm with you on the high yield muni train.
    I'm thinking this has between 6 - 18 months to run. Everyone is talking about higher rates and inflation. I see inflation personally in many of the things I buy but I don't think salaries/pay is rising so it will remain tame as will the FED.
    We all may be surprised how long this low yields last.
  • Paul Merriman: Top Fund's Shareholders Missed The Party: CGM Focus Fund
    Avert your eyes. That's how (the only way) I turned $5k with this fund manager into >$65k over two decades. And I bailed a couple years ago only cuz I was (forcibly) entering retirement. Would it had been $50k waay back when. But then I would have been totally unable to avert my eyes. At least I have one my children in FLVCX.
  • How Good Are M*'s Fund Picks ?
    "Over the past 10 years through May 30, Morningstar’s gold-rated diversified U.S. stock funds (previously called analyst picks) on average returned 8.1% annualized, an average of 0.3 percentage point per year ahead of Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index."
    When you consider that the Index fund probably has had little to no capital gains distributions, meaning it is very tax friendly and has excellent after tax performance.........was that extra .3% even worth it?
    It calls into question the whole issue of trying to pick funds that beat an index.
    It worked quite well in the developed foreign markets arena, but sure not in the diversified U.S. stock funds arena
  • High Yield Spreads Widen: Should You Be Worried ?
    Dex, I hope so. I watch HYD and HYMB intraday but they don't hold a candle to the open end junk munis. For instance, several are outperforming HYD by 2 to 3 percentage points YTD. I am not a fan of ETFs. During the recent selloff HYD declined nearly 5% while the open end declined just over 1% with some such as EIHYX declining less than 3/4 of a percent.
    Mona, VWAHX is too staid both performance and yield-wise for me. Plus, from recent articles, it appears there is a shortage of junk munis as compared to the higher grade stuff.
  • Largest One Day Increases (30%+) For VIX: 1990-2014
    62% chance S&P 500 will be higher in 3 months. Or let us hope so !!
    Derf
  • Some questions regarding commodity funds (incl. ARCIX, GCC and USCI)
    I was a commodities broker 40 years ago. Their returns (funds) since the 70s (allowing for the ones that vanished) is woeful. One glance at Morningstar's Commodity Broad Basket category for the past 3 and 5 years tells it all. Over the intervening years since I was a broker I heard all about shortages of this and that commodity but overall shortages always seemed to turn into surpluses and vice versa with the net result being a terrible long term investment vehicle. Probably the worst of the worst is silver. I remember how it was manipulated to over $50 an ounce in the spring of 1980. Look at it now.
    Edit Just looked at a chart of GCC back to 2008. Again, pretty much says it all.