Is There Too Much Junk In Your Trunk ? A lot of dire forecasts for junk bonds in the various links of Ted original link above. Here's some more negative comments, these coming from Michael Aneiro's column in this week's Barron's. Mr. Aneiro has been a regular Cassandra on junk bonds for well over a year now. You know the broken clock analogy, so maybe Mr. Aneiro's time has finally arrived.
>>>Among current pockets of risk, as I've warned in this column before, is the corporate bond market. Not only are corporates rich, but they can also be harder to sell than they were just a few years ago. Since the financial crisis, banks have cut their corporate-bond holdings to keep pace with regulations. Inventory is down by 40% to 75%, according to various estimates, and if there's ever a rush to sell, fewer willing buyers could mean steeper losses, affecting bonds, mutual funds, and ETFs alike.
"THERE'S NO QUESTION that liquidity has decreased," says Gershon Distenfeld, director of high yield at AlianceBernstein, who says increased capital requirements have curtailed risk appetite among banks and dealers and made it more costly to maintain bond inventories. He adds that Bear Stearns, Lehman Brothers, and Merrill Lynch used to represent more than a third of U.S. high-yield trading volume, and none of them exist as a stand-alone entity today.
Fixed-income trading at banks "is evaporating," says James Swanson, chief investment strategist at MFS Investment Management. He sees corporate bonds, particularly high yield, as increasingly perilous for investors. "Are those markets, given how low yields are, compensating you for the risk of illiquidity?"
Corporate bonds are often pulled in two directions: When equity prices fell amid last week's turmoil, riskier corporates slid, too, but the losses were tempered by gains in underlying Treasury bonds. That pattern can hold up for short periods but will be challenged during more protracted downturns, especially if nobody really wants to buy.<<<
Is There Too Much Junk In Your Trunk ?
The Few, The Proud, The 30-Year Veterans With Good Results
What's Your Thoughts on MFLDX? Thanks BobC for your comment I will add you as a hold in the poll. Always enjoy reading your comments. Last year I owned All Asset which was a topic on the board. At the time it was faltering and I gave it a full year to get its act together ... and, it did. Currently, ytd, it is the third best performing member of its six member sleeve. I am glad I continued to hold. As you say Mr. Arronstein is no doubt a very skilled manager but just how much money can one manager handle? Seems to me, Mainstay opened the gates and continued to build assets which results in more fees for themselves and makes it more difficult for the manager to effectively position.
I remember when Duke Energy merged with Progress Energy in North Carolina things seemed to be in flux when Mr. Johnson the then to become the CEO was fired within hours after the merge. Team Marketfield went short DUK and this little move had a good impact on the funds overall performance because of its much smaller asset base. Today, this would amount to no more than a drop in a big bucket. With its size today it has to look for much bigger macro opportunity.
Bob, I really value you comments that you make on the board ... but, it gets down to each of us have to do what we feel is best. For me MFLDX is a small holding overall within my portfolio, but it does equal about 25% of its five member specialty sleeve. And, it is currently the faltering fund member both within its sleeve and within the portfolio. I have some short term bond funds that are currently outperforming it. I just feel it is taking the manager too long to position the fund based upon ever changing macro themes ... and, that spells asset bloat as it is no longer the nimble fund that it was when I first purchased it. If I felt Mainstay would put a hard close on the fund ... I'd stay. I don't see this happening.
For me, it is now time to move on to something else. For those that wish to continue to hold it ... I wish all well.
Old_Skeet
What's Your Thoughts on MFLDX? Hmmm. Available in my retirement account. $5M minimum investment. Closed to new investors.
Sorry if I pry, but are you guys such high flyers that you trade in and out of a $5M minimum fund? Or maybe the minimum has not always been that high?
Minimum
definitely wasn't $
5M.
What's Your Thoughts on MFLDX? Hmmm. Available in my retirement account. $5M minimum investment. Closed to new investors.
Sorry if I pry, but are you guys such high flyers that you trade in and out of a $5M minimum fund? Or maybe the minimum has not always been that high?
There are several classes of this fund - including load classes and an investor class MFNDX at a $2500 minimum, apparently open. Are you invested in one of these lesser classes, and using MFLDX as a proxy for what you own?
JMO - I'd expect an investor with above $5M in MFLDX would be in the super-$25M investable assets range, and I would expect them to employ professional money management services. Maybe not ...
Fidelity Short Duration High Income - FSAHX I'm not fond of that 2.25% front load on LALDX.
Coincidently, American Century has two funds opening in a week. Strategic Income and Short Duration Strategic Income. I can get in at the open. I'm waiting on the prospectus at the moment.
I'm not too sure about American Century. I closed my account with them. I owned ASIOX. I might buy that fund at a brokerage, but I don't see myself keeping an account with them. I have a smattering of their Equity Income in one 401k, rest everything is in index funds.
The Very Best Of Janus Funds Janus Global Allocation is a mini-family: conservative, moderate, and growth. The allocations favor equities maybe more than you'd expect from the names, at least right now; for instance, Conservative, the one I have on a watch list, ~ 45% stock, 48% bond, and 7% cash and other. Growth, the one mentioned in the article, is more than 80% stock.
I'd guess the allocations are a reflection that Janus as a shop is still fairly far out on the growthy end of the spectrum.
Fidelity Short Duration High Income - FSAHX I'm not fond of that 2.25% front load on LALDX.
Coincidently, American Century has two funds opening in a week. Strategic Income and Short Duration Strategic Income. I can get in at the open. I'm waiting on the prospectus at the moment.