Over ARLSX lifetime, it's a top quintile L/S fund in risk adjusted return (through Mar '14):

And ARLSX, it too has kept up pretty well since inception:

Come on guys...give Whitebox WBMIX some credit. It's kept up pretty well since inception against some other notable L/S funds:

"A new study finds that the average investor in all U.S. stock funds earned 3.7% annually over the past 30 years—a period in which the S&P 500 stock index returned 11.1% annually."
I find that very hard to believe. You'd have to work very hard to do that.

+++++++++++
It is amazing.
I guess investors would have had to pile in during 1999 and Jan-March 2000, when sentiment was exuberant.... then sell out towards the latter part of 2002 after they had lost 40+%; buy back in during 2007 when the fear of the 2000-2002 bear market had waned and greed rose again......sell during the last half of 2008 when sentiment got very pessimistic....and stay out until 2012 or 2013 when sentiment picked up again

"A new study finds that the average investor in all U.S. stock funds earned 3.7% annually over the past 30 years—a period in which the S&P 500 stock index returned 11.1% annually."
I find that very hard to believe. You'd have to work very hard to do that.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.investmentnews.com/article/20140509/FREE/140509908?template=printart

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://blogs.wsj.com/moneybeat/2014/05/09/just-how-dumb-are-investors/tab/print/

OTCRX came crashing out of the gate. I'm watching it.
AZDDX. Sorry. 5 managers. Not a cent invested in fund by anyone. Not happening.

This is where a little bit of understanding of technicals would be useful. You can get a better perspective of the big picture than hoping every wiggle means something. There is also a lot of technical trading going on that makes these a self-fulfilling prophecy.

Technically, small caps are very broken. They are below the 200 day SMA and bouncing along the lower bounds of the channel in a strong downward trend. You can have several bounce backs up to the 20 day SMA (2%) without changing the trend as has happened all of April. It has to break through that and perhaps even the 50 day SMA (about 6%) before technical trading snowballs it the other way.
Technically, biotechs have a much better chance of recovering sooner than small caps.
Risk off and momentum trades from too much money floating around is what this current market is all about and may continue through the summer.
Sit tight or momentum trade, only two options.

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/small-caps-slide-reflects-a-market-in-trouble-2014-05-09/print?guid=8B0B0924-D702-11E3-9095-00212803FAD6

@hank
My original reply was to your past tense statement/question.
This new consideration is a whole different beast, eh? Looking forward.
Kindly lay-out for us mere mortals where the 10 year Treasury will be on the following dates:
July 4, 2014
October 1, 2014
December 31, 2014
June 1. 2015
December 31, 2015
June 1. 2016
December 31 2016
I suspect the 10 year rate to not change much from the 2.6% area currently in place. While I have reports in Michigan from folks I know about increased spending in some construction areas, 30% higher than 2013; I still feel the Fed will have to be very helpful with rates for a few more years. Gotta keep rates low to attempt to help folks with mortgage and auto loans. 'Course, low rates will continue to destroy monies and purchasing power for the many who will not gamble in the equity or bond markets. This large group will maintain their CD's.
A Catch-22 does exist for many economies. Low rates being in place from central bank actions to "help" one group(s) of folks, while causing damage to another group of folks who have saved money, are conservative with their money and will continue to have their monies damaged from inflation. Tax revenue is lower, too; in line with the poor yield from CD related investments.
Well, there surely is much more related to this broad area, eh?
The big/easiest money has likely been made from most bonds since 2008, but too many economic weak areas remain. I feel yields will remain low for a variety of reasons.
TIPs bonds funds or etfs may continue to offer a decent and somewhat conservative return from earlier this year and going forward. As always, one has to be flexible and pay attention.
Gotta get outside work finished before the storms arrrive.
Take care,
Catch

FYI;
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/5/8/tortoise-catching-up-to-the-hare.html?printerFriendly=true

FYI:
Regards,
Ted
http://www.usatoday.com/story/money/columnist/waggoner/2014/05/08/investing-high-yields-are-gone/8861649/

Reply to @cman:
Managers can do much to reduce risk to their shareholders through: (A) their own high quality independent credit research (B) holding offsetting debt like long term Treasuries and high quality corporates (C ) Keeping ample cash reserves to meet redemptions (D) Restricting "hot money" flows in and out of the fund or closing completely when warranted.
So ... your fund is only as good as your manager. Let's hope you gave a good one.

there is really not much managers of illiquid asset classes in the open-end funds can do. once the outflows start, they have to raise cash for the daily liquidity funds by selling loans (hi-yield, mortgages, blah-blah securities) into a declining market causing further declines. the thinner the trading volume (on all credit instruments and micro caps) the more the price is affected by the flows. there was a blip last year after the tapergate when the loans lost 5-6 percent in one month -- mostly due to the outflows. the less liquid hedge funds or close-end funds will also be affected as security pricing impacts the entire asset class, but because they won't need to sell at the fire sale prices (i assume they maintain enough assets to cover their leverage, which is not always the case) they might even pick up some good stuff on the cheap. the mark-to-market will be brutal, but the recovery will be much swifter than that of the mutual funds who will realize their losses.
i am enjoying the high yield party just as the next gal. i just know that the question is not how or if this ends, but only 'when'. the amount of money that has flown into credit instruments has no precendent in history. the narrow exit door will lead to the bloodshed. personally, i still prefer high yield bonds and non-agency MBS to the overpriced and floored loans.
best, fa
ps i like how ted [with hot biotech] silenced catch's weekly bond updates -- your typical hare and turtle story..

http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2014/05/08/nouriel-roubini-were-at-the-very-beginning-of-a-credit-bubble/
I agree, conceptually. There are many who are in junk bond funds who do not understand they come with a risk. Generally, at times they can perform like stocks - if the company's expectations are not good, there is concern about them paying the interest and default.

Reply to @Catch22:
Great to hear, Catch!
Kindly lay-out for us mere mortals where the 10 year Treasury will be on the following dates:
July 4, 2014
October 1, 2014
December 31, 2014
June 1. 2015
December 31, 2015
June 1. 2016
December 31 2016
Thanks so much. :)

The author points out what has been long known. When a loan is designed to allow early payment by borrowers they will do so as long as rates are trending down and they can refinance at lower and lower rates. This negatively impacts the level of income lenders receive. This "pre-payment risk" is acknowledged by GNMA funds in their prospectuses, as mortgage holders are notorious for refinancing at lower rates. I'd imagine floating rate funds also so warn.
The beauty of the floating rate funds is that the lender (in case you the fund owner) is not locked-in to a fixed rate. While you suffer as rates fall, you should do much better when rates rise. In the later case, traditional bond holders suffer as investors flee to higher paying instruments and sell previously issued bonds at discount - driving down bond values for everyone.
If there's anyone here who's consistently called the interest rate picture accurately over the past 3 years please come forward, My sense is even the experts are mystified. Where's that great "bond bust" so widely predicted for 2-3 years now? The ten-year has bumped up from its bottom below 1.5% couple years ago to only around 2.6% today. A "bust" by no means. NBR reports that 30 year mortgages are at a one-year low today at just a bit over 4%.
Bottom line? Floaters are one type of insurance against a rising rate environment if and when it comes. Like all fixed income investments, they have their attributes and liabilities. But, don't expect anyone to stand on the corner and ring a bell on the exact day rates begin a sharp irreversible trend upward. (Just my overly-wordy two cents:-)

Hey, one other interesting metric.
FAIRX during last two market cycles Apr '00 - Sep '07 and Oct '07 - Present (thru 1Q14):

Despite the volatility since 2007, it remains in top quintile of risk adjusted return. Can also see a lot more volatility in this cycle versus previous cycle.
Liking full cycles numbers more and more these days...hoping to add them soon to Risk Profile search tool.
And here is M* performance plot, current cycle:

Versus 3 year plot:

Unless you are one of those investors who believes the price of things doesn't matter, it would probably be a good idea to do a "re-check" on the price of your holdings, esp. the MOMO stuff.
http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2014-05-08/what-pe-ishares-biotech-etf-it-depends-whether-you-read-fine-print

365 brand is designed to make WF a one stop destination for groceries and is low margin. The last recession seems to have changed consumer behavior in the upper middle and upwardly mobile class that frequent WF. It is becoming much more common for people to visit two or more places for their grocery and produce needs. Trader Joe's where available is benefitting. I see far less filled cart shoppers in WF than before the recession.
The other change seems to be the traffic decline in their highest margin item, prepared foods.
Interesting changes. Not sure how much of it is permanent and whether WF can continue with its current structure or has to reinvent itself over the next few years like Starbucks is struggling to do.
They definitely had a good thing going for a while.