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Here's a statement of the obvious: The opinions expressed here are those of the participants, not those of the Mutual Fund Observer. We cannot vouch for the accuracy or appropriateness of any of it, though we do encourage civility and good humor.
  • Bond yields leap connected to sell-off
    NO, that must have been someone else in Michigan you heard screaming today !!!
    AND, for today only (Monday, April 21); although you've probably already looked. Pretty NASTY down day in pricing. Only Short duration, MINT; remained unchanged from Friday.
    --- AGG = -.60% (I-Shares Core bond), a benchmark, (AAA-BBB holdings)
    --- MINT = +.00% (PIMCO Enhanced short maturity, AAA-BBB rated)
    --- SHY = -.06% (UST 1-3 yr bills)
    --- IEF = -.54% (UST 7-10 yr bonds)
    --- TIP = -.51% (UST Tips, 3-10 yrs duration, some 20+ yr duration)
    --- TLT = -1.75% (I Shares 20+ Yr UST Bond
    --- BAGIX = -.51% Baird Aggregate Bond Fund (active managed, plain vanilla, high quality bond fund)
    --- LQD = -1.08% (I Shares IG, corp. bonds)
    --- HYG = -.59% (I Shares High Yield bonds, proxy ETF)
    U.S. Dollar Index Hammered again today.
  • Firing Fed chair,,, impact on mutual funds?
    Take a look at the bond and stock market from last week. Investors are moving out of US. And the trade war has yet all plays out. Thus, we are far from the bottom.
    https://reuters.com/business/finance/us-bond-funds-suffer-fifth-weekly-outflow-tariff-driven-inflation-fears-2025-04-21/
  • Morons and mutual funds
    Gman57. My forecast exactly. The emergency will be that he is polling 35% and would lose the election. That he would run for a third term is a forgone conclusion. Look out below.
  • Foreign Trade Zones (FTZ)
    Foreign Trade Zones, a relic of 1930s, are suddenly popular. Goods imported can simply be stored in FTZ warehouses for up to 5 years and the duty is paid only when those goods are withdrawn for sale or use. Suddenly, a tariff problem becomes a logistics problem - logistics is already a huge industry as it replaced much of what old JIT delivery/manufacturing was. Of course, the goods may be outdated or out of fashion/style in 5 years.
    Recent pre-tariff users of FTZs have been consumer goods and retail, automotive, aerospace, and electronics.
    But when tariff rules can change by the day, this is suddenly a good logistics solution. Alternate is not to ship in advance and take the tariff lumps as they come.
    https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/21/trump-tariffs-import-surge-tax-free-foreign-trade-zones.html
  • Oakmark International Funds
    We have owned OAKMX off-and-on over the years and own it currently. Still a 5* fund that tracks well vs S&P despite being LCV. Was having a very good year until the debacle. Always thought it was/is their best offering.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Long-term investor with Oakmark here (OAKIX, OAKWX, OAKEX, and sometimes OAKBX). I am still with Oakmark, though I don't know why. They really seemed to have lost a lot of their mojo over the past 5+ years. I saw it first with OAKBX; OAKEX has long been a laggard in the space. I think at this point I stay with Oakmark largely for diversification (manager concentration risk) and because they have a wide range of funds I can readily move between.
    On manager concentraiton risk -- I don't like having too much money with a single manager, and I don't want to have funds with a ton of different manager; currently I have 15% from an old Roth I started in grad school with Oakmark. I am split across four major fund families currently.
  • Wednesday was no dead cat bounce says…….
    @stillers agree it doesn’t look very good. And one reason why I use junk bonds instead of equites to play those out of the ordinary up/down volume days. If things don’t improve by the close will exit the junk bond trade VWEHX put on at 5.31 on that big bounce day. Bonds especially shorter term such as BSV SHY are hanging in there today so far anyway,
  • Wednesday was no dead cat bounce says…….
    Nothing against Zweig or the messenger, but...
    With S&P futures DOWN 1.25%, from the link I had previously posted, the Buffoon's Blink Bounce is starting to look more and more like a classic Dead Cat Bounce and Bear Market rally:
    Excerpt:
    Dead Cat Bounce:
    Key Takeaways
    A dead cat bounce is a rally that is unsupported by fundamentals that is reversed by price movement to the downside.
    Check
    In technical analysis, a dead cat bounce is considered to be a continuation pattern.
    Check
    At first, the bounce may appear to be a reversal of the prevailing trend, but it is quickly followed by a continuation of the downward price move.
    Check
    Dead cat bounce patterns are usually only realized after the fact and are difficult to identify in real-time.
    Still TBD fully after more time
    At least, that's how I'm scoring it at home.
    https://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$SPX&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p08140338207
    And FWIW, based on that scoring,
    the likelihood based on market history that a Golden Cross is 6-12 months away,
    earnings season will include a lot of pulled guidance, and
    the notion (read, reality?) that nothing other than the announcement of tariff deals, reductions or eliminations CAN move the market meaningfully higher,
    we believe a re-test of the Liberation Day lows is highly likely and we are NOT re-deploying any of our March 31 stock SALE proceeds at this time. We are inside the S&P range at which we may start re-deploying, but we believe better re-entry points are coming.
    That all said, we are getting antsy to start re-deploying via DCA into FSELX, which we SOLD on March 31 and is DOWN 14.3% from that point (and DOWN 25.6% YTD) heading into today's OPEN.
  • China reportedly orders its airlines to halt Boeing jet deliveries amid US trade war
    Following are excerpts from a current report in The Guardian:
    Carriers also asked to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from US firms, report says
    China has reportedly ordered its airlines not to take any further deliveries of Boeing jets, the latest move in its tit-for-tat trade war with the US. The Chinese government has asked carriers to stop purchases of aircraft-related equipment and parts from American companies, according to a Bloomberg News article, which cited people familiar with the matter.
    The order was reported to have come after the country raised its retaliatory tariffs on US goods to 125% on Friday in response to Donald Trump’s levies on Chinese imports totaling 145%. Beijing was also said to be considering ways to support airlines that lease Boeing jets and are facing higher costs.
    About 10 Boeing 737 Max jets are being prepared to join Chinese airlines, and if delivery paperwork and payment on some of them were completed before Chinese ”reciprocal” tariffs came into effect, the planes may be allowed to enter the country, sources told Bloomberg.
    The restriction marks a serious blow for Boeing and other manufacturers trying to navigate the escalating trade war between the world’s two biggest economies.
    The group chief executive of the budget airline Ryanair, Michael O’Leary, has said his company could delay taking deliveries of Boeing aircraft if they become more expensive. He told the Financial Times that Ryanair was due to receive a further 25 aircraft from Boeing from August but would not need the planes until around March or April 2026. “We might delay them and hope that common sense will prevail,” O’Leary said.
    Shares in Boeing have been buffeted by worries about the impact of trade tariffs, as well as complaints from some shareholders that the company has underinvested in its engineering. The company has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, and in March its chief financial officer, Brian West, said tariffs could hit availability of parts from its suppliers.
    The rival European plane manufacturer Airbus said on Tuesday that it was watching the evolving situation on trade tariffs. Its chief executive, Guillaume Faury, told shareholders the company was having problems receiving components from the American supplier Spirit AeroSystems, which was weighing on the production of its A350 and A220 jetliners.
    Boeing was approached for comment.

    Comment: Boeing has lost 7% of its market value since the start of the year, with potentially a lot worse to follow. @FD1000 notwithstanding, this would seem to qualify as an investment consideration.
  • China sends back new Boeing jet made too expensive by tariffs
    Following is a current report from The Guardian:
    With estimated $55m price set to balloon by 125%, 737 Max returns to Seattle production hub still wearing the colours of Xiamen Airlines
    A Boeing jet intended for a Chinese airline landed back at the planemaker’s US production hub on Sunday, a victim of the tit-for-tat bilateral tariffs launched by Donald Trump. The 737 MAX, which was meant for China’s Xiamen Airlines, landed at Seattle’s Boeing Field at 6.11pm, according to a Reuters witness. It was painted with Xiamen livery.
    The jet, which made refuelling stops in Guam and Hawaii on its 5,000-mile (8,000-km) return journey, was one of several 737 MAX jets – Boeing’s bestselling model – that had been waiting at Boeing’s Zhoushan completion centre for final work and delivery.Trump this month raised baseline tariffs on Chinese imports to 145%. In retaliation, China imposed a 125% tariff on US goods.
    A Chinese airline taking delivery of a Boeing jet could be crippled by the tariffs, given that a new 737 MAX has a market value of around $55m, according to IBA, an aviation consultancy. It was not clear which party made the decision for the aircraft to return to the US. Boeing and Xiamen had not responded to Reuters requests for comment at time of publication.
    Confusion over changing tariffs could leave many aircraft deliveries in limbo, with some airline CEOs saying they would defer delivery of planes rather than pay duties, analysts say.

    Comment: @FD1000 notwithstanding, it is not beyond possibility that if you have an investment in Boeing it might be affected by Trump's idiocy.
  • Don’t Buy "Easy Fix" for Stock-Market Craziness
    "With the stock and bond markets stumbling in unison, investment firms and financial advisers
    are pushing so-called alternative funds harder than ever."

    "Many institutional investors, glutted with private assets, are twiddling their thumbs waiting to get their money out. Private-equity firms are sitting on more than 29,000 companies, valued at $3.6 trillion, that they can’t unload. Returns for many alternatives have stagnated. Why buy what these folks are trying to dump?"
    "Over the 10 years through June 30, 2024, the median endowment earned a 6.7% annualized total return net of fees, according to the 2024 NACUBO-Commonfund Study of Endowments. That was far behind the 12.8% annualized total return of the S&P 500 over the same period—and not much better than an ETF with 60% in stocks and 40% in bonds, which grew at 5.9% annually."
    "Many of these institutions have privileged access to the world’s best managers of alternative assets—
    yet barely managed to beat out a boring, dirt-cheap ETF."

    https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/savingandinvesting/don-t-buy-into-this-easy-fix-for-stock-market-craziness/ar-AA1DbLkK
  • Tariffs
    https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2025/04/20/economy/shock-trump-tariffs-world-economy/
    "Three weeks after U.S. President Donald Trump effectively declared a trade war with the entire world, new economic forecasts and surveys will point to the initial fallout. A few blocks from the White House, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) is set to lower its outlook for economic growth in new projections released on Tuesday.
    The following day, purchasing manager indexes from Japan to Europe to the U.S. will offer the first coordinated glimpse of manufacturing and services activity since Trump’s global tariffs — now partly on hold — were unleashed on April 2. Business surveys from major economies are also on the calendar.
    The combined picture is set to offer finance ministers and central bankers assembled in Washington a chance to make initial damage assessments on Trump’s attempt to rewire the global trade system.
    Further north..... Retail data for February and a flash estimate for March will reveal whether Canadian consumers pared back their spending for a third straight month amid the trade uncertainty."
  • Bond Opportunities?
    Here's the best bond article I read this weekend.
    https://www.marketwatch.com/articles/high-yield-junk-bonds-9ed6141e?mod=search_headline
    Excerpt:
    The higher spreads split investors “into two camps—head for the hills or this is an incredible buying opportunity,” Fridson tells Barron’s. This “could be the most bifurcated decision many investors will ever face.”
    As noted on other threads we "headed for the hills" a coupla years ago.

    Good article.
    It seems to me that caution is warranted and heroics should be avoided in the current environment.
    I mostly use bonds to diversify equity risk.
    Junk bond exposure is via DOXIX and BBBMX which currently hold ~5% of their assets in high-yield bonds.
  • Bond Opportunities?
    It all depends on why you hold bonds, someone's goals, style and timing.
    VGIT (simple treasury index) made 3.2% this year. Is it bad? Nope.
    CLOZ made about 12% in 2024 with a nice smooth uptrend. Cat bonds made even more.
    There is only one bond fund that performed according to my style in 2025. But, as long as my indicators show high risk, I'm staying out in MM.
    TR matters a lot more than the income/yield. If something pays you 6% income, but yearly TR=2%, then you made only 2%. Something that pays only 4% and made 4% is a better choice.
  • Oakmark International Funds
    Brandes on Top of MFO Fund Families Scorecard Thru March 2025
    image
  • Future High Energy Demands - The Moon as a Data Center
    Microsoft made a significant statement by entering a twenty-year agreement with Constellation Energy, which plans to reopen the Three Mile Island nuclear plant, the site of the 1979 partial nuclear meltdown. Constellation Energy plans to invest $1.6 billion to refurbish and restart the reactor by 2028 with an estimated 835 MW of capacity. Microsoft entered the agreement to provide the energy demands for its AI data centers.
    and
    There is one problem with this: we cannot continue to scale energy usage like this without making the Earth inhospitable to organic life.
    how about the moon:
    we will in just a few short decades be able to deliver payloads of a self-assembling farm of robots to mine the Moon, create chip fabs, build, and ultimately tile the Moon with GPUs. The Moon has a surface area of 14.6 million square miles, roughly the size of Asia. If we very conservatively tiled even half the Moon with GPUs and solar panels, the Moon could sustain a billion times the compute of the Colossus cluster and, with a few turns of Moore’s law driving chip technology forward, even a trillion times the compute.
    https://palladiummag.com/2025/04/18/the-moon-should-be-a-computer/
  • Oil & Gas Industry
    I still don't own E & P. I am in midstream, with 6.44% of portfolio, currently. And ET just lately bought a huge office building in Houston. Are they outgrowing their current Dallas HQ? It certainly must be a BIG slug of money involved. But the price was not published.
    https://realtynewsreport.com/starwood-sells-41-story-skyscraper-to-energy-firm/
    "...But Energy Transfer is no investor wanting to buy low and sell high in a few years. The Dallas-based energy firm, which operates a 130,000-mile pipeline network crisscrossing the nation, is expected to occupy the 5555 San Felipe building for the long-term..."
    I bought a few additional shares at a recent low of $14.99, and it's back up to $17.27 tonight. It is claimed that market oil prices don't matter, but ET owns a stake in Sunoco, which DOES get affected, directly. The divvy is healthy. During covid, it was cut, but I did not own it then. Oil demand may become range-bound or fall with a trade war. But ET is scrambling to keep up with offers to fuel new AI-connected Data Centers, and the Lake Charles facility now has a green light. (LNG.)