FYI: Pension Funds, University Endowments Diversified Into Other Investments With Disappointing Performances
Regards,
Ted
http://online.wsj.com/articles/big-investors-missed-stock-rally-1403567478#printMode

FYI: The S&P 500 Energy sector has been on a tear lately. In the second quarter, the Energy sector is up 13%, and it closed today more than 2.6 standard deviations above its 50-day moving average
Regards,
Ted
http://www.bespokeinvest.com/thinkbig/2014/6/23/energy-sector-goes-wild.html?printerFriendly=true
M* Equity Energy Fund Returns: http://news.morningstar.com/fund-category-returns/equity-energy/$FOCA$EE.aspx

I want to add to my existing retirement position but am tempted to pay Fido $50 and put it into SGOIX instead (I also have an existing position), which is steadier, although its mgrs have been there only 7 years. Thoughts welcome.

Do The Math? We've had this discussion before.
February 4th Discussion
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/35684/#Comment_35684
Nov- Dec 2013 Discussion
http://www.mutualfundobserver.com/discuss/discussion/comment/32277/#Comment_32277

@steppinrazor 6/2/2014 0.0357/share
When mutual funds are "slow on the draw" in posting their dvd distributions (and some, e.g. TRP, are notably slooooow), I simply go to fidelity.com and use their Quotes tool (see drop down menu under Research). For some reason, they are as fast as anyone at grabbing reported distributions and posting them accurately, at times quite a bit before MFs get around to posting the info on their own websites.

FYI: Fund companies were hyping their alternative investments, smart-beta index issues and every new bell, whistle and sparkle. Money managers were talking about strategies for reducing risk and volatility, and seemingly every fund firm in the exhibit hall was celebrating five-year bull-market records with performance so great that it seemed beyond the reach of ordinary investors
Regards,
Ted
http://www.marketwatch.com/story/5-ways-mutual-fund-companies-could-serve-you-better-2014-06-23/print?guid=C0A18E4A-FAEE-11E3-9C64-00212803FAD6

>>>>Did you have ice water injected into your veins as a newborn, or did you have that done later?
p.s. I live in Carson City, less than 15min drive from the eastern crest overlooking Lake Tahoe, 30min from Desolation Wilderness, and 60min from backside of Yosemite (but a lot lower). I could get in a couple of day hikes for you next week if it would make you feel better.:)<<<<<
heezsafe, lived 16 years in Reno and my favorite hiking and backpacking spot in your neck of the woods was the Sawtooth Range outside of Bridgeport.
As an aside, going to try the Cman route and abstain from posting. Yes, I know, tried this once before unsuccessfully but this time will try harder. Good luck to all.
Edit: All the time I posted here, I never once mentioned my book. And the ones that knew I wrote one, I asked them kindly not to mention it. The last thing I wanted was to come across as someone pandering a book, especially one written almost 15 years. Last year my royalty income came to a grand $102. I believe you can get this free online, otherwise just pick up a used one. Thanks Mark. You are a swell guy. I e-mailed you yesterday politely asking if you could delete the reference to me writing a book.

FYI: Unless a fragile market triggers outflows, the Oakmark International fund is likely to remain closed to retain its flexibility and concentrated portfolio, says manager David Herro
Regards,
Ted
http://www.morningstar.com/Cover/videoCenter.aspx?id=651583&lineup=mutualfunds
The Fund Is Ranked # 2 In The (FLCB) Fund Category By U. S. News & World Report:
http://money.usnews.com/funds/mutual-funds/foreign-large-blend/oakmark-international-fund/oakix

FYI: Funds that use quantitative stock-picking models are on a roll. A list of 52 U.S.-sold quant funds compiled by Morningstar beat more than 80% of their respective peers over the trailing three years through June 13, and the group outperformed its respective peers in 2011, 2012, 2013, and thus far in 2014.
Regards,
Ted
http://news.morningstar.com/articlenet/article.aspx?id=651588

@Junkster Did you have ice water injected into your veins as a newborn, or did you have that done later?
p.s. I live in Carson City, less than 15min drive from the eastern crest overlooking Lake Tahoe, 30min from Desolation Wilderness, and 60min from backside of Yosemite (but a lot lower). I could get in a couple of day hikes for you next week if it would make you feel better. :)

DGoodrow said...
GLRBX is a 50/50 balanced fund...much more to my liking,..
If you're comfy with that fund co. and management,you've got to like JAZZX . The James Long-Short Fund has out performed GLRBX since its May 2011 start.http://www.jamesfunds.com/fund-overview.php?fund=JAZZX A L/S strategy would be a good diversifier as would the previously mentioned Precious Metals.Also you could use E M debt and the M L P /infrastructure space.Also look @ David Glancy's PYSAX or PVSAX. He has a good record and often holds 15-20% cash,mostly for an unforeseen opportunity.Use RSIVX for your 1-3 year expenses .
Scott has often mentioned the need for infrastructure investment across the world and many of the funds specializing in that space are up nicely this year.$$ cost ave. into your chosen alternatives and re-balance @ your comfort level.
From $4 Tril to $9 Tril in next 10 years.
http://news.yahoo.com/global-infrastructure-capital-spending-hit-9-trillion-2025-040519158--sector.html
E M debt for the brave.
A number of companies have plans to sell dollar-denominated bonds, including the US$1.5 billion unsecured notes proposed by state-owned oil and gas giant PT Pertamina; $450 million bonds by coal miner PT Berau Coal Energy and $175 million bonds by property developer PT Pakuwon Jati, among others.
Pertamina’s notes, which are offered with 6.45 percent coupon rate and will be due in 2044, obtained a Baa3 rate from Moody’s Investor Service. Under the rating, the obligation is seen to have a moderate credit risk.
“The outlook of the rating is stable,” Moody’s wrote in a statement published on Friday.
And The Braver!
Troubled coal miner PT Berau Coal Energy released late on Thursday a prospectus highlighting its plan to sell up to $450 million in debt papers
Proceeds from the bond issuance would be used to refinance its $450 million bonds, which were issued in 2010 and are due to mature next year
The new bonds will mature in five years and will be offered with a maximum coupon rate of 12 percent, the prospectus reads. That compares with Berau’s 2010 bond coupon rate of 12.5 percent.
Berau, one of the major coal miners in the country, is struggling to manage its liquidity as the global coal outlook remains uncertain.
The coal miner reported $10.18 million in net loss during the first three months of the year, leading to worries over the company’s ability to pay its debts.
Amid concerns of rising private sector debts, Indonesian companies are continuing to seek external funding in foreign currencies to support expansion or the refinancing of previous debts.
Raras Cahyafitri, The Jakarta Post, Jakarta | Business | Sat, June 21 2014, 2:47 PM
http://www.thejakartapost.com/news/2014/06/21/firms-sell-dollar-bonds-despite-rising-concerns-over-private-debt.html

What a prize idiot piece of equivocal writing. Where is Hulbert when you need him? GMO feels the same way, maybe, probably, sort of, but without the handwringing and the fancy prose.
\\ investors should not allow their guards to come completely down. [[ooooh]] For while July may prove just as pleasant this year as May and June, history has shown [[whatever that means]] that if [[love it]] the bear were to finally emerge from hibernation, that July is one of its favorite months to come out growling.
Meaning if it happens, whatever that means, it is more likely to happen the next few weeks? Or something.
I love rich maroon wordsmithing.
I dread what he is going to write if there is a big slump in July. Of course, if a 25% drop for some time is going to make you fall dead, or even go sleepless, you ought not to be in the equity market in the first place.

"Lies, damned lies, and statistics." If one wants a quote.
While I agree that close is probably good enough for hand grenades (that's the whole point with them, after all), one gets 3 points for a ringer in horseshoes and one point for being close, so it's just another flawed analogy (at least on the professional horseshoe circuit).
But really, a 60/40 mix for someone under 40 (I'd say under 50)?
I'd be more impressed if someone proved rebalancing starting more than 20 years before retirement enhanced returns. The never rebalanced portfolio slightly outperformed with higher volatility in the cited example, even after starting with the drag of 40% bonds.
I agree with John Bogle who seems to support using Social Security as part of one's bond allotment and including more equities.
A bit surprised that rebalancing every 3 months, which seems a bit hyperactive, provided second best return.

Will the current good times in mutual fund performance continue? Well here is some more insight on the topic.
http://seekingalpha.com/article/2279573-this-is-when-the-bear-growls
Regards
Guido

Professor Jeremy Siegel [author, Stocks For the Long Run] made an important point with respect to the bear market from October 2007-March 9, 2009, when the US stock market went down 57%. He said something to the effect of, iirc, 'there are only two asset classes, stocks and US Treasuries.'
In that bear market/financial crisis, it didn't matter if you had large cap, small cap, mid cap, REITs, US stocks, foreign stocks, value, growth......they all got clobbered. But one asset class did great: US Treasuries. There is a 'flight to safety' in US Treasuries. So that does provide important diversification. Check out the total return of US Treasury bond funds in 2008 and you will see they did great, and provided great diversification.
However, DGoodrow mentioned "In light of pending problems for bonds going forward".
That is a duration issue, which only comes up if rates rise. If rates rise say 1% in one year, and if you are in a total US bond market index fund, which has a duration of 5.6 years, then your bond fund will likely lose approx. 5.6% in net asset value, which does not include the yield which is currently 2.1%, so the one year total return would be roughly -3.5%. Of course, there are many who believe that rates will rise significantly over an extended period, hurting bond holders a lot more, which may be what DGoodrow is alluding to.
So one solution for someone who is concerned about bonds going forward is to put some fixed income money into online FDIC insured banks. You can get .95% in a demand type savings account [with no minimum deposit], or more in certificates of deposit.
Another option for diversification is a gold fund, like GLD or IAU.
Personally I don't feel comfortable doing that, as I would rather wait for a much more attractive gold price.
Just some thoughts.

davidrmoran,
I'm not sure you completely understand the context upon which I made the statement. The discussion was pertaining to a total 70/30 asset mix portfolio (with the equity position increasing throughout the balance of the year) close to retirement, as opposed to my portfolio that was closer to 40/50 mix (which Slick said might be on the conservation side). And I assumed that Slick intended diversification to mean LC/MC/SC domestic, international and emerging markets. FCNTX lost upwards of 38% in 2008. Diversified? Large Cap domestic is not diversified. FPACX? Hardly diversified enough by itself or in conjunction with the others you mentioned...and wasn't it it's large position in cash that limited the slide in 2008. GLRBX is a 50/50 balanced fund...much more to my liking, but hardly the thing that an entire million and a half $ portfolio is made of. As far as not being able to afford waiting 3-4 years for the market to recover, and eating your portfolio seed corn while you wait...good luck with that. I would rather "afford" to be conservative.

Yes, my entire liquid net worth is normally 100% in one fund. But I use a tight trailing stop of around 1% to 1.25%. Remember I am into tight rising channels and at this point in my financial life bond funds. Look back at 2012 and PONDX or last year in HFRZX, and this year in NHMRX (present holding) When some of these bond funds get into a rhythm, it is very persistent with nary a drawdown along the way. Normally, when funds in such a tight pattern bring that rhythm to the downside it is indicative of more decline on the way. In the 90s used the same methodology but with equity funds in tight rising channels and a larger % trailing stop.
Junk bond funds are notorious for their trend persistency and lack of drawdown along the way. I learned that in real time back in early 91 when I made my first foray into them. Although they were not my primary trading tool in the 90s they have become such over time. A friend of mine who also trades junk bond funds looked at some timing models using a trailing stop of 1% to 1.50% as an exit and then the same percentages as a reentry off any subsequent lows. Really impressive long term results.

@mrdarcey.
Thanks man.
Early on, I believe the board debated why not 7, 12, and 15 years?
When we first rolled it out, I think we had "aspiring GOs" or something like that for funds that were top quintile the past 1 and 3 years. But, after discussing with David, we thought to just simplify it to current definition: top quintile for all evaluation periods 3 years or more, as applicable.
Nothing scientific here. Just the definition we chose.
Think too the board debated why not ratings based on other metrics (absolute, Sortino, upside/downside) as well, which is something again we are working on. Probably won't change the GO definition, but I believe it would be valuable to have the other metrics...just to know.

@davidmoran.
First, a disclaimer. I'm a Steve Romick fan. If FpA did not charge so much for FPACX, I would have owned it long ago.
A look at the numbers...

They are great.
Top quintile across its lifetime and across last two full market cycles with consistently moderate risk.
OK, it's "only" forth quintile during last 3 and 5 years, but that again is because of the defensive nature of the fund given the bull market.
But who cares?
Again, if FPACX had a lower er, I would own it in a NY minute.
In this case as well, MFO results consistent with M*:

OK, BUFBX...

Ha!
A classic case.
Its 10 year numbers are great, but it's lifetime numbers and full cycle results not so great.
If it helps, when BUFBX soon crosses the 20 year mark, it will NOT be a GO. Another case where GO assignment should be taken in context of age group.
Looks like M* has same issue here, since its ratings only go out 10 years:

Hey, working hard to make the full cycle and life time metrics and much more available to MFO readers. Thanks to good questions and suggestions from readers on the board, I've come to appreciate full cycle and lifetime numbers more and more.
Now, time for another cup of coffee.

@STB65 This is a pretty good article on defined mat bond funds. You should use it to start a discussion topic on them, see what others have heard about them, maybe even what others have experienced with them.
As for the downside protection, I wouldn't be too sure about that. These funds are very very new invention. Sudden market shifts could hurt them, in ways they couldn't recover by maturity date..... time will tell.